| SITUATION AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2001
OUTLOOK:
There has been a slight lift in rainfall
probabilities across Queensland this month. The 30 day average of the Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen over the last few weeks to +1.5 as 01 October
2001. Based on this shift of the SOI over August/September there has been a
corresponding slight lift in rainfall probabilities across much of Queensland.
Areas of the state that have had a slight improvement in rainfall probabilities
include parts of the Chinchilla, Wondai, Munduberra, Gayndah, Perry, Monto,
Murweh, Blackall, Jericho, Aramac, Longreach, Winton, Mt Isa, Bourke, Cloncurry,
Nebo, and Duaringa Shires. All of these areas have a 60-70% chance or probability
of getting or exceeding the median rainfall for October-December. However areas
of lower rainfall still exist. These include the southern half of Dalrymple
shire and a strip running from the western half of Quilpie shire to the southern
half of the Cloncurry shire where there is only a 30-50% chance of getting or
exceeding the median rainfall over the October-December period. The rest of
the state has around a 50-60% probability of getting or exceeding the historical
median rainfall over October-December. As always when using probability based
forecasts the opposite always applies. For example, if there is a 20% chance
of getting above the median rainfall at a location over the next three months
there is an 80% chance of getting below the median.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Dry conditions across the state continued
this month, but as September is historically one of the driest months of the
year this was not unexpected. Natural pastures generally continue to deteriorate
further this month and will continue in this pattern until rain is received.
In areas of the state that are still carrying a quantity of dry pasture bulk
the risk of bushfires is high. The cattle market remains strong although there
was a peak late in the month with this being the first easing of prices for
many months. Harvesting of winter crops is well underway in the Central Highlands
and Dawson Callide areas and should be finished by mid October. Wheat quality
across the state has generally been disappointing with low yields and protein
levels. A large summer crop is being anticipated due to the small planting of
winter crops across the state and the resulting large number of paddocks currently
fallow. For this to come to fruition good planting rain is required in most
areas. As of 30 September 2001 there are currently 24 shires and 1 part shire
drought declared under state drought processes. The area declared represents
6.13% of the land area of the state. There are also 233 Individually Drought
Declared Properties (IDPs) in a further 24 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region:
The start of spring saw some patchy rain
in the north, and abnormally windy weather extending inland. Declining pasture
quality and bushfire risk continue to confront the northern grazing industry,
though prices remain firm. For farming, seasonal conditions generally did not
differ much from normal expectations. West Region: Continued deterioration of
livestock and pastures is the general trend, and is considered a normal progression
for this time of year. Generally adequate supplies of bulk pasture and water
are available across the region. Plainer types of cattle are the norm at saleyards
across the region as the effects of the long dry winter start to show.
Central Region:
Conditions remain stable across most of
the region. The dry winter has impacted on all sectors of the farming community
and producers are looking towards some early storms. The winter crop outlook
was one of isolated opportunities but some areas did get to plant with mixed
results.
South-East Region:
Rainfall was below average for all southern
areas of the region during the month. Some centres in the North and coastal
Burnett had better falls but nothing significant enough to compensate for the
very dry preceding months. Winter cropping yields and cane harvest tonnages
have been below average.
South Region:
Rain for the region ranged between 10 to
25mm, which is not unusual for this time of year. Limited sub soil moisture
means that falls of 25-50mm will be required to plant a summer crop, with in
crop rain of 100mm or more for the crop to reach potential. The border district
has benefited from reasonable rain over the growing period, which has resulted
in better wheat and chickpea crops. Pastures and stock condition have deteriorated
although prices continue to hold.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region:
Stock are generally in store to poor condition
and as normal for this time of year continue to gradually slip with the decline
in pasture quality. Most producers are engaged in some sort of supplementary
feeding program in line with normal management practices in the north. In the
Georgetown and Normanton district stock are generally holding with some isolated
areas of poorer cows and weaners in the Mt Surprise area. In the Normanton district
early weaning is helping maintain breeder condition until storms arrive. In
the Townsville and Charters Towers stock district, pastures continue to decline
with the season and stock are in a similar pattern. In the Mareeba stock district
cattle from the Peninsula are generally in very poor condition and will require
ongoing supplementation. Some ares in the Bowen stock district that received
showers during the month are experiencing a flush in pasture growth but on a
whole the pastures are of poor quality and quantity. Generally conditions remain
stable and producers are now anticipating the start of the wet season.
West Region:
In the north and central west areas the
normal seasonal pattern is occurring with no significant rainfall being recorded
in this area. Pastures have hayed off with adequate bulk available. To maintain
stock condition, and to utilise this bulk, supplementation continues as stock
show the effects of deteriorating conditions. As is often the case breeders
with progeny are the line of stock worst affected by the dry conditions. Reports
from southern abattoirs on the condition of sheep originating from the central
west indicates that they are condition score 2. This is a clear demonstration
of the low protein levels in pasture impacting on stock condition. The south
west is experiencing some very dry conditions in the area bounded by Adavale,
Quilpie, Cunnamulla and Charleville. Pasture quality and quantity in this area
is very low and stock condition is reflecting this.
Central Region:
Stock across the region are in varying condition
with stock in the Emerald, Alpha and Springsure stock districts in generally
fair condition with good quality meatworks cattle still being turned off. Stock
in the south are starting to show the dry conditions and are in average to below
average condition particularly in the Biloela and Theodore stock districts where
pastures range from good stands of dry feed to denuded. Generally most areas
have a reasonable body of feed. As is normal for this time of year the pastures
are generally low in protein and energy and are starting to deteriorate quickly
with the onset of hot weather. Most producers are involved in some sort of dry
season supplementation program.
South East Region:
In the Boonah and Beaudesert areas stock
condition on the whole is good with only a few very dry areas having stock in
poor condition. The Ipswich and Esk areas have stock in good to very good condition.
In the Gympie district, cattle range in condition from poor to better than average,
with the condition of most cattle reflecting the poor season in the district.
Breeders with calves are showing the effects of winter and declining in condition.
In the Wondai shire stock are holding in condition. In the North Burnett stock
are in fair to good condition but breeders are slipping in condition. Dry conditions
during the month have caused deteriorating and diminishing pasture quantity
and quantity. There is a fire threat in many districts. In most areas pastures
will be generally sufficient if early storms are received in October but there
are areas where drier conditions or overstocking have caused complete loss of
pasture. In the Gympie district quality of pasture is poor with quantity ranging
from totally denuded to medium cover. In the Bundaberg district native pastures
are very dry with little protein, while sown pastures are haying off but still
have some nutritive value.
South Region:
Stock across the region are generally in
store to backward store with condition scores ranging from 2 to 3. The quality
of cattle at the saleyards is reflecting the dry conditions as some producers
elect to sell on a buoyant market rather than feed. The stocking rates have
been greatly reduced in most areas with some properties well under half their
normal stocking rates. Pastures have declined and low winter rainfall has resulted
in limited growth of any winter herbage.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region:
Bore levels in the Bowen district have decreased
as aquifers decline with the season. Fluctuating air temperatures in late winter,
early spring has affected tomato yield, size and firmness. The resulting lower
daily harvest has caused a price rise on the market, which continues to hold.
In the wet tropics some welcomed rain brightened up the pawpaws, bananas and
tropical tree fruits. Reasonable prices and good quality continued for the potato
harvest on the Atherton Tablelands. As the sugar cane harvest head towards an
early finish, the picture is one of higher prices and CCS, but a lower than
expected tonnage.
Central Region:
Another dry month with little or no rain
across the region. The winter harvest is well under way for those with a crop
planted, and should be mostly finished by the middle of October. In the Dawson
Callide wheat crops planted on a full profile have generally yielded 2 - 2.5
t/ha. Grain protein results have been low, but given the lack of in crop rain
and the associated poor root development this in not surprising. In the Central
Highlands farmers who achieved a chickpea crop received reasonable yields and
prices. Across the region farmers are now preparing to plant a summer crop which
may be quite large due to the significantly smaller than normal winter crop.
Planting of irrigated cotton is occurring in the Dawson Callide and Emerald
areas.
South-East Region:
Winter crops have been disappointing with
only 20% of the normal area planted to wheat. In crop rain has been patchy and
the quality of the crops has generally reflected this with low yields and protein
levels. In the Gatton district onions, leaf vegetables and carrots are now being
harvested and prices are reasonable. Spring potatoes, pumpkins, cucurbits are
now being planted but rain is needed to reduce the heavy reliance on irrigation
supplies. Cool conditions in the Bundaberg district have slowed the growth of
tomatoes, which have been in high demand. In the Gayndah area the citrus harvest
is continuing. There is also a concern regarding the lack of irrigation water
in the coming crop season. The cane harvest has started with CCS levels generally
being high and yields low due to dry conditions. Yield estimates in the Maryborough
and Bundaberg districts are currently down on what was expected.
South Region:
The Goondiwindi district received up to
25mm of rain over August, which has ensured reasonable crops at this stage.
Some late frost across the region caused some losses of chickpea flowers. There
has been approximately 20% of available winter crop planted over the region.
Prospects for a summer crop are also generally reduced with only 40 to 60% of
full moisture profile available. Dryland and irrigated cotton crop planting
has been reduced as a result of insufficient stored water in most areas.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region:
Babinda received 110mm (122) Cairns A/P
18mm (33), Malanda 34mm (36), Ingham 29mm (33), Innisfail 53mm (n/a), Townsville
1mm (10), Tully 67mm (n/a), Bowen 41mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a) and
Georgetown 3mm (5).
West Region:
Birdsville n/a (4), Boulia 0.6mm (6), Windorah
0.2mm (9), Cloncurry 6mm (10), Mt Isa 3mm (8), Longreach 1mm (9), Muttaburra
n/a (10), Winton 0.0mm (7), Eromanga 4mm (12), Augathella 31mm (28) and Charleville
5mm (21).
Central Region:
Clermont recorded 9mm (15), Alpha 7mm (18),
Springsure 7mm (26), Mackay 32mm (15), Yaamba 52mm (24), Proserpine 50mm (n/a),
Biloela A/P 18mm (26), Mt Larcom 19mm (22), Gladstone 11mm (24), and Theodore
n/a (28).
South-East Region:
Eidsvold recorded 29mm (29), Gayndah 20mm
(30), Mundubbera 24mm (29), Esk 18mm (37), Kilkivan 14mm (31), Kingaroy 20mm
(n/a), Murgon 15mm (33), Nanango 20mm (33), Proston 21mm (31), and Beaudesert
20mm (38). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 49mm (30), Maryborough 62mm
(29), Nambour 25mm (43) and Tewantin 29mm (n/a). South Region: Clifton 21mm
(38), Dalby 20mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 13mm (n/a), Inglewood 3mm (41), Oakey 14mm
(32), Pittsworth 25mm (33), Stanthorpe 23mm (48), Toowoomba 15mm (n/a), Warwick
28mm (n/a), Roma 19mm (n/a), St George A/P 2mm (n/a) and Taroom 21mm (28).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region:
Water supplies in most places are in a reasonable
state but some surface supplies will dry up rapidly with the onset of hot weather.
Most producers have sufficient water available to carry them through until the
normal wet season arrives.
West Region:
Generally on property storages continue
to recede. Dams in the Tambo and Winton areas of the central west are still
lacking supplies. Waterholes in watercourses are adequate at this time, and
it is anticipated that there should not be a problem with these stores.
Central Region:
Some properties are reported to be out of
water, and supplies are dwindling in the Cracow, south east Emerald and north
east Bauhinia Shire areas. All streamflows in the Central West are base flow
recessions and many streams have stopped flowing including the Fitzroy and Mackenzie
Rivers. There was not enough rainfall to trigger runoff through the system this
month.
South-East Region:
Surface water is low in the Beaudesert,
Boonah, Wondai, North Burnett and Gympie districts. The Fred Haigh dam, the
major storage in the Bundaberg district has only 12% of useable storage. Irrigation
demand is high and will only increase as the daytime temperatures rise.
South Region:
Surface water is at a critical level in
the Taroom and Wandoan areas, and water is being carted west of Chinchilla.
The rest of the region remains adequate at this stage but surface supplies are
very low.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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