SITUATION AS AT 30 APRIL 2002.
OUTLOOK:
Currently there is only a 20-50% probability of receiving median rainfall
for May to July for most of the south, south-east, west and north of the
state. Across central Queensland the probability of receiving or getting the
long term median rainfall for May to July varies between 40-70% depending on
location. The monthly value of the SOI at the end of March was -5.6 and at
the end of April was -3.4. Based on this shift in the monthly value of the
SOI over March/April, the SOI is now in a 'Consistently Near Zero' phase.
It is essential to remember that when dealing with probabilities to also
consider the additional information that probabilities provide. For example,
based on the recent pattern of the SOI there is a 39% chance of getting the
long term May to July median rainfall of 100 mm at Talwood. Therefore there
is a 61% chance of not getting the May to July median rainfall. Another way
of looking at this is that in approximately one third of years
(approximately 3-4 years out of 10) with the current SOI pattern Talwood
received its long term median May to July rainfall. Therefore in around two
thirds of years (6-7 years out of 10) with the current SOI pattern below
median rainfall has been recorded at Talwood for May to July.
For more climate related information contact the DPI Call Centre on 13 25
23. Alternatively try the DPI's climate web site www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate
on which the "Climate Note" can be found. The climate note contains more
detailed information including rainfall probability maps, SST information
etc. A recorded message with the 30 day average of the SOI is also available
on 46881439.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Dry conditions generally continue throughout the State with patchy rainfall
in some areas. Temperatures have been hotter than average for April and no
frosts have been recorded. The pasture growing season is coming to an end
and pasture and stock condition will decline as winter approaches.
As at 30 April 2002 there are 24 shires and 1 part shire drought declared
under State drought processes. The area declared represents 6.13% of the
land area of the state. There are also 492 Individually Droughted
Properties (IDPs) in a further 43 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: April has generally been a dry month with very little rain
recorded over the southern area, but the outlook for the season remains
relatively good. It is expected that, the country will continue to dry.
Live exports and store markets are in full swing as producers downsize
numbers after a disappointing wet season. Stock prices for all types of
cattle have fallen as supply exceeds demand.
West Region: Deterioration continues to be the trend for all areas of the
region. A weak rain band moved across the lower half of the region early in
the month, but only delivered very patchy falls. Some IDPs have been
revoked from the Murweh shire as a result of rains during the first week of
March.
Central Region: Continued dry conditions in Central Queensland remain a
significant issue. Rainfall during April was average to very much below
average. Stock and pasture condition continue to decline and winter
cropping prospects are poor, with the planting window for chickpeas almost
closed and the window for wheat open until mid to late June. Canegrowers
south of Sarina are facing loss of their crops due to dry weather and many
growers are considering alternative cash crops.
South-East Region: Dry conditions and little or no rainfall have typified
the climate pattern for the month. Yields of broadacre crops have been
badly affected by the dry conditions. Grazing areas have now dried off
significantly. Production in coastal horticulture and cane is being
seriously affected by lack of irrigation water supplies and the dry
conditions.
Water supplies from the Fassifern Valley through to Maryborough, Bundaberg
and the North Burnett are all low.
South Region: Rainfall throughout the region during April was below average
for most areas. Hot, dry conditions affected crop production especially in
areas of low soil moisture with the lack of irrigation water in the St
George/Dirranbandi area affecting cotton yields. The pasture growing season
is ending with the dry summer period limiting production especially in the
mid and far west.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Stock and pasture conditions vary throughout the Bowen Stock
District, ranging from good to backward store in the case of breeders with
calves at foot. In the Mareeba Stock District stock condition is generally
good but breeders with weaners are losing condition. Due to an early break
in the wet season stock condition in the Normanton District is generally
above average but some older wet cows are starting to show signs of slipping
which is a normal situation until calves have been removed. The area has
plenty of quantity pasture but quality is starting to dry back. Stock
condition for breeders in general in the Charters Towers Stock District is
slipping slightly with limited growth in most pasture species. Weaners at
this time of year are requiring supplementary feeding. Pasture availability
is adequate in the northern parts of the shire and some of the south west,
but southern and eastern areas are very limited for quality and quantity.
Pasture condition is reasonable with a good bulk of feed about although it
has seeded and is haying off rapidly in the Townsville Stock District.
Stock condition is good. Spelled pastures in the Malanda Stock District
continue to grow and stock condition reflects the pasture quality as weight
gain continues. Stock condition is excellent throughout the Georgetown
Stock District and most properties have started first round mustering.
Pasture quantity remains abundant with plenty of feed available and most in
seed head. Grass is starting to dry off, particularly native annual
grasses.
West Region: Having missed a general wet season, the north west has not
been able to establish an acceptable body of pasture that will carry through
until the next expected wet. As a result conditions are deteriorating
rapidly with large areas denuded of pasture south of the Northern Railway
Line. Producers are reducing stock numbers by selling and/or agistment. In
the Central West, the area of Longreach/Winton/Boulia is deteriorating
rapidly as pastures suffer from lack of moisture. Stock numbers are being
lightened off to take advantage of current high sheep values and sales of
cattle as their values begin to slide. Generally the areas of Isisford,
Longreach, Barcaldine, Blackall, Tambo, Augathella and Charleville have a
reasonable body of pasture and provision of supplements will assist to
maintain condition of stock. In the South West, Paroo and Bulloo shires
continue to deteriorate. General daily conditions have remained warm for
this time of year and this has been quite favourable for stock holding their
condition. As the season progresses and the effects of winter take hold,
stock will slip, especially if spoiling rains of amounts less than 25mm
occur.
Central Region: Cattle generally have been holding on fairly well, but
there are some poor cattle around, particularly breeders. There are a lot
of cattle moving off properties in an effort to lighten up and some early
weaning is being undertaken. The best of the pasture is in the Bauhinia
Shire where there is some reasonably good feed available. The rest of the
region varies, but mostly on the bad side.
South-East Region: In most areas stock are maintaining condition despite
the dry season. However, stock are already starting to slip in condition on
any properties that have not received rain. There has been increased
enquiry for agistment in many areas and some stockowners are already
reducing stock numbers at sales in anticipation of a dry season. Pastures
are variable, ranging from very short to adequate depending upon rainfall.
In most areas, dry winds and hotter than average April temperatures have
dried off pastures considerably and although no areas have been frosted,
most grasses are now taking on the appearance of late winter pasture.
South Region: Stock condition varies with animals in the western Downs and
Balonne Shire in poorer condition. Large stock numbers were sold due to the
hot dry conditions over summer and animals are being drought fed in the
Balonne Shire. The pasture production season has come to an end and quality
is variable with eastern areas satisfactory and western areas inadequate for
this time of year.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Tomatoes, capsicums, beans and sweet corn in the Bowen
district are a little ahead of their time because of the warm conditions.
Some welcome rain and cooler conditions in the South Johnstone area have
assisted growth of well established crops.
Central Region: There has been no significant rainfall in the Dawson/Callide
this month, following on from a dry late summer/early autumn period. This
has been good from a harvesting point of view for those who managed to plant
a summer crop. Yields have been variable - from not worth harvesting up to
3 t/ha. Similar conditions have been experienced in the Central Highlands
with sorghum crops being harvested at elevated grain moisture levels in an
effort to reduce lodging losses in crops which have experienced terminal
drought stress. Wide and skip row configurations have provided the best
sorghum crop performance in the adverse conditions this season, with
reasonable yields and grain quality. Winter crop prospects are mixed. The
optimal chickpea planting window has now passed but many zero till growers
have successfully planted chickpeas into deep subsoil moisture. These same
growers have also planted smaller areas of wheat using moisture seeking
technology. The conventional wheat planting window will remain open until
mid/late June, so there is still time to record good planting rains.
South-East Region: Yields from all crops in the region have been variable
with the great majority of crops showing poor results after the dry season.
Many peanut crops will barely cover production costs, corn will not be
harvested till later in the season with most of the failed crops being cut
for silage and soybean yields have been low. Despite this, some sorghum
crops will still yield well and provide returns for growers. Tomatoes,
capsicums, zucchinis, squash, capsicums and eggfruit are currently being
grown in the Bundaberg district and tree crops such as avocadoes are now
being harvested. The avocadoes being harvested in the Nambour district have
small fruit due to moisture stress and other tree crops such as persimmons
and late mangoes have been attacked badly by birds causing high fruit
losses. Imperial mandarins are now being picked in the Gayndah/Mundubbera
district, with the outlook for the citrus harvest being good. The Bundaberg
district is suffering from the dry conditions and current crop forecasts for
the coming season are markedly lower than in previous years.
South Region: Only 70% of available cropping area was planted this summer,
due to dry conditions. The variable rainfall resulted in inconsistent crop
yields but there were good yields of sorghum, maize and navy beans reported
on the eastern Downs. Cotton production was affected due to irrigation
shortages around the St George/Dirranbandi area and there were problems
experienced at harvest within the Goondiwindi area, with substantial rain
falling at the end of March. There has been little concern with disease to
apples and grapes this growing season due in part to the low rainfall.
Stonefruits were in good supply, however prices were low. Early dormancy of
fruit trees has occurred as crop irrigation has ceased after harvest.
Vegetable production has been adversely affected due to limited irrigation
water.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 336mm (571) Cairns A/P 98mm (224), Malanda
133mm (174), Ingham 160mm (219), Innisfail 460mm (n/a), Townsville 2mm (47),
Tully 418mm (n/a), Bowen 8mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.2mm (n/a), Georgetown
0mm (35) and Normanton A/P 0mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P 0mm (n/a), Boulia 0mm (14), Windorah 3mm (22),
Cloncurry 0mm (19), Mt Isa 1mm (16), Longreach 0.6mm (41), Muttaburra 3mm
(37), Winton 0mm (33) and Charleville 28mm (34).
Central Region: Clermont recorded 0mm (43), Alpha n/a (27), Springsure 0mm
(46), Mackay 77mm (154), Yaamba 2mm (53), Proserpine A/P 73mm (n/a), Biloela
A/P 11mm (45), Mt Larcom 15mm (56), Gladstone 9mm (54), and Theodore n/a
(49).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 8mm (50), Gayndah 3mm (47), Mundubbera
0.4mm (42), Esk 14mm (n/a), Kilkivan 10mm (66), Kingaroy 7mm (n/a), Nanango
17mm (57), Proston n/a (52), and Beaudesert n/a (82). On the coastal fringe
Bundaberg received 39mm (70), Maryborough 29mm (87), Nambour 85mm (153) and
Tewantin 111mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 25mm (52), Dalby 0.6mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 3mm (n/a),
Inglewood n/a (48), Oakey 1mm (47), Pittsworth n/a (47), Stanthorpe 7mm
(58), Toowoomba A/P 11mm (n/a), Warwick 0mm (n/a), Roma 0mm (n/a), Miles 0mm
(n/a), St George A/P 35mm (n/a) and Taroom 0.4mm (41).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: The Mitchell River is very low but surface water in the
Mareeba district is adequate for the present. Surface water is quickly
receding with some properties in the Gulf pumping water. Surface water
could be a problem without winter rains. Most creeks and rivers have
stopped running in the Georgetown District but the Einasleigh continues to
run. Surface water is abundant throughout this area with most dams at
capacity.
West Region: Summer rains have failed in many areas resulting in severe
deterioration of conditions. Generally, on property storages continue to
recede.
Central Region: All centres received rainfall well below their average with
the majority of rainfall being the result of isolated storms. All
streamflows were well below means and medians for the month with the
exception of the upper Dawson. The flows for the Fitzroy and Pioneer Rivers
were well down. Although there was no flow at the Mackenzie River
(Coolmaringa), all weir storages upstream on the Mackenzie are full from
previous months. Theresa Creek and the Boyne River did not flow for the
entire month.
South-East Region: Major irrigation dams in the North Burnett are still at
low levels as are dams in the Gatton/Laidley area and Moogerah Dam at
Boonah. Bores are extremely variable in the Gatton area and allocations for
irrigation from Fred Haigh Dam are at very low levels. Cedar Pocket Dam at
Gympie is empty.
South Region: There are parts of Balonne, Inglewood, Stanthorpe, Warwick,
Waggamba and Chinchilla Shires experiencing stock water shortages. Rainfall
ranged from 10mm to 25 mm during April.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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