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07 Aug 2008

Queensland Drought Report

TheLongPaddock  > QueenslandDroughtMonitor > QueenslandDroughtReport > 2002 > Aug

SITUATION AS AT 31 AUGUST 2002

OUTLOOK:

Based on the recent pattern of the SOI, the probability of receiving or getting above the long term median rainfall for August to October remains relatively low at 30-50% across most of Queensland. Although it is worth taking into account that August and September are historically the two driest months across most of Queensland. The monthly value of the SOI for June was -6.8 and July was -7.1. Based on this shift in value the SOI remains in a "Consistently Near Zero" phase. Therefore, at this stage rainfall probabilities are expected to remain relatively low until early to mid summer. Rainfall probabilities may then rise marginally due to increasing storm activity in mid to late summer, however it must be remembered that storm activity is generally patchy and may provide limited relief rain only. When dealing with probabilities it is essential to consider the additional information that probabilities provide. For example based on the recent pattern of the SOI there is only a 32% chance of getting the long term August to October median rainfall of 36mm at Charters Towers. Therefore there is a 68% chance of not getting the long term August to October median rainfall. Another way of looking at this is that in approximately one third of years (3 years out of 10) with the current SOI pattern has Charters Towers received its long term median August to October rainfall. Therefore in around two thirds of years (7 years out of 10) with the current SOI pattern below median rainfall has been recorded at Charters Towers for August to October.

For more climate related information contact the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23. Alternatively try the DPI's climate web site www.dpi.qld.au/climate on which the "Climate Note" can be found. The climate note contains more detailed information including rainfall probability maps, SST information etc. A recorded message with the 30 day average of the SOI is also available on 46881439.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Rainfall was recorded in most districts this month with varying degrees of effectiveness. Generally rainfall totals have exceeded the median expectations for this period, however, not all rainfall received has been effective. There is a wide variation in stock condition ranging from very poor to good for this time of the year. The South East region recorded rainfalls of up to 100mm in some of the northern centres. Green pick is now evident in many places and this should take some pressure off stock feeding. Rainfall has caused some minor delays to the cane harvest but nothing of significance. During the month of August, following recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Rural Communities drought declared the shires of Balonne, Barcoo, Boonah, Cooloola, Inglewood, Waggamba and Local Government divisions two and three of Tiaro shire. There are now 42 shires and 1 part shire drought declared under state drought processes. The area declared represents approximately 21% of the land area of the state. There are also 431 Individually Drought Declared Properties (IDPs) in a further 34 shires

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: Rainfall was recorded in most districts this month with varying degrees of effectiveness. This caused some minor delays to the cane harvest but nothing of significance. In the grazing areas there has been some pasture response but limited runoff has occurred to assist in alleviating low surface water supplies. Stock condition appears to be holding well in the north region with the only exception being in the drier parts of the south where stock are falling in condition. IDP numbers continue to increase in the Bowen shire. These properties are generally located in the south western areas of the shire around Collinsville and Mt Coolon. The remainder of the north region remains IDP free although enquiries have been received.

West Region: Generally rainfall totals have exceeded the median expectations for this period, however, not all rainfall received has been effective. Storms across the central and southern areas during the last weeks of the month brought patchy rain with totals received between 35 - 50 mm. However, rain did not reach all areas and those areas receiving less than these totals have had increased deterioration of available dry pastures. As a result of the decline in pasture feed, supplementation has increased to provide livestock with much needed protein for maintenance. Properties that do not have sufficient pasture bulk to support a supplementation program are destocking. Water supplies continue to be a major concern across the region with many on-property storages dry or rapidly receding. IDP applications are increasing in most shires across the region.

Central Region: Average to above average rainfall was received across central Queensland during August. Highest falls were recorded in southern areas, where falls of up to 100 mm occurred. The winter crop prospects remain very poor for the northern central highlands, with any crop in the ground struggling. The crops in the southern highlands still look promising at this stage. Crops in the Dawson/Callide areas will respond well to the rainfall received and should lead to some good yields. Pasture conditions are either holding or deteriorating depending on which areas received the rain. Where rainfall was significant, the warm conditions following the rain should promote pasture growth. Water resources in many areas continues to be a concern as rainfall received has not led to significant runoff in many areas.

South-East Region: Record August rainfalls of up to 100mm have been received in some of the northern centres of the region. Unfortunately these large falls did not extend to the southern districts. Green pick is now evident in many places and this will take some pressure off stock feeding. Some crops will now be planted but many producers will wait until the soil temperatures warm and the danger of frost is over before planting early summer crops. Stock could be disadvantaged by the cool conditions and the light green feed, but if conditions warm and follow-up rainfall is received then the outlook for the two driest months of the year will improve. Major water supplies along with dams and bores remain at critically low levels.

South Region: During the month of August, rainfalls of between 50mm to 120mm were recorded within the areas defined by Dalby, Roma and Goondiwindi. The remainder of the southern region received falls of between 20mm-50mm. The better falls should encourage secondary root production in established crops and improve yield potential. In response to low pasture availability and a low expectation of useful rain, widespread destocking has continued through sale yards and feedlots. With the drought declarations of Balonne, Waggamba and Inglewood shires during the month of August, sixteen shires are now officially drought declared with a further 60 IDP's throughout the region.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Stock on the Tablelands are in reasonable condition but wet cows are experiencing difficulties. Supplementary feeding is taking place to slow down weight loss. The Normanton district has recorded some useful rain, although this was patchy and will require follow up falls to be of any real significance. Stock condition is holding well with most properties having a reasonable amount of dry feed. Around the Charters Towers district, supplementary feeding with protein based feeds is continuing to reduce condition loss. The patchy rain received around the Mareeba district has been beneficial with green pick now noticeable. The condition of dry cattle through the Mareeba sale yards is starting to slip, this is especially noticeable with some of the bulls and ox from the marginal country. Pasture availability in the Bowen area is reasonable, although the quality is average to very poor. The rest of these districts however, are still experiencing a dry spell and some properties are without pasture entirely. Livestock condition ranges from very poor to good depending on location, rainfall & management factors. Water supplies appear to be adequate at the moment.

West Region: In the Central West areas around Boulia, Winton, Longreach and Blackall, stock numbers continue to be lightened off to reduce pressure on remaining pastures. Provision of supplements will assist to maintain condition of stock. Kangaroos persist to impact on the amount of available pastures, especially where rain has fallen. Generally the areas of Isisford, Longreach, Barcaldine and Blackall, Tambo, Augathella and Charleville have a reasonable body of pasture. The far southern end of the Isisford shire is in very poor condition, with IDP applications being received and approved. Again water supplies are a major consideration in IDP inspections as on-property supplies dwindle and disappear. Producers in the Charleville, Cunnamulla and Quilpie stock districts are destocking, as no substantial flows in the channels has been received over the past 18 months. This western country is extremely dry and the preferred option for drought management is to destock.

Central Region: There is a wide variation in stock condition in the region, from very poor to good for this time of the year. Poorer stock in the good rainfall areas can be expected to pick up from here on, especially if the warm weather continues. As always, wet cows appear to be suffering the most. Pasture has responded well to the rain and some places are well set up for the spring. Not so good for others though, where the dry conditions continue to bite. With the weather starting to warm up, lighter buffel country should see some green flag in response to the rain received. Areas around Duaringa, Fitzroy and Livingstone shires should experience excellent growth of pasture in response to the warmer spring weather, however country that has been extensively grazed may be slow to respond.

South-East Region: In most areas of the South East region, stock continue to loose condition due to the short green feed and wet cold conditions. With the onset of the warmer weather and a better body of feed, loss of bodyweight should now slow down. Many herds are now calving and the rain will be of great benefit to them. Recent rainfall has caused stock sales in the region to drop, although the drier areas still need to reduce stock numbers. The majority of producers have been drought feeding supplements and licks to their stock though this should now slow with the recent rains received. Pastures in the northern areas where good rainfall was received are responding well and providing good green pick for stock. Initially the pasture will be very light but if favourable conditions continue, pastures will rejuvenate well. Surface and underground water supplies continue to be stressed despite the rain. Some farm dams have been filled but in most cases more follow up rain is needed.

South Region: Stock condition varies throughout the region. Although after a long period of dry weather and severe frosts most animals are at the lower end of the body condition scale. Animals in the western zone and Border Rivers are worst affected. Limited pasture feed has forced owners to destock to feedlots and sale yards. The stock route has been used extensively over the last few months especially around the Roma district. However the feed has become limited and many animals have been offered for sale. Supplementary feeding has been utilised to maintain body condition. Due to below average rainfall, over the cooler months, there has been no appreciable winter herbage growth. The quality of the pasture has declined. The recent rain may activate some pasture growth. However warm and wet conditions will need to continue before any major affect is realised.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE

North Region: In all districts the lack of rainfall is having some impact on crops and is placing an increased pressure on already low irrigation supplies. Tobacco harvests continue in the Mareeba district and will be completed by the end of September. Quality and yields have been good. As the Wet Tropics approach their traditional dry period some on-shore showers in the last 2 weeks have assisted in soil moisture for horticulture crops. Tomato and pumpkin prices have been excellent. Prices for other vegetable crops have been reasonable with the exception of eggfruit. Conditions remain very dry but it is anticipated that most vegetable growers will make it to the end of the season with their existing water reserves. Mangoes are flowering well and the weather conditions are ideal for a good fruit set. Sugarcane yields in the Mareeba district are down. Cane from the dry southern area is holding on and extra bins have been allocated to get the crop off as quickly as possible. In the Burdekin district rainfalls between 10 - 35mm were recorded this month that caused some minor delays to harvesting. Mills continue to crush at high capacities and yields remain high.

Central Region: August started out as another dry month in the Dawson and Callide valleys, with many of the winter crops planted suffering moderate to severe moisture stress. Rainfall totals varying from 35 to 130 mm were recorded throughout most of the area, saving many of the struggling winter crops. Wheat crops that potentially would have failed will be harvested, although rain at this stage of the season will not dramatically increase yield. Small areas of chickpeas that have been planted are also expected to respond well to the rain, and fill out the crop that has already been set. Although rain has assisted the region's winter crops, the long term seasonal outlook remains unfavourable. It remains too early to predict what will happen with summer crop planting, although further falls of rain through October to November would mean a reasonable part of the area would be double cropped. Should this occur, the areas that missed out on a crop for the last few seasons would see an improved cash flow situation.

South-East Region: Although the region received beneficial rainfall over the last month, most winter crops have not benefited with many crops dying off or suffering from stress, though the rain will be beneficial for the start of the summer cropping season. In the Gatton district lucerne production has been assisted by recent rain but supplies still remain low with prices high. All crops in the region will be well below their yield potential with the adverse conditions. Most irrigation water is being directed to higher value horticultural crops. Tomatoes, capsicums, zucchinis, squash, capsicums and eggfruit are currently being grown in the Bundaberg district. Most tree crops have benefited from the recent rain with trees now flowering and setting fruit. Citrus harvesting continues in the Gayndah/Mundubbera district. Rain has caused disruptions to cane harvesting although it is unlikely that the rain will dramatically change crop yield forecasts.

South Region: The south region as a whole can expect below average yields. To date only 40 to 50% of available cropping area is expected to reach harvest. The recent rain received around Roma, Miles and Dalby districts will be useful planting rain for wheat, chickpea and barley crops and should assist the growth and yield potential. There has been early planting of sorghum in the higher rainfall areas around Miles, St.George, Dirranbandi and Thallon. The apples, grapes and stonefruit are in winter dormancy and vegetable production has been adversely affected due to limited irrigation water. The Granite Belt now faces a ban on irrigation from natural waterholes.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 124mm (103) Cairns A/P 19mm (22), Malanda 77mm (39), Ingham 58mm (37), Innisfail 119mm (n/a), Townsville 10mm (14), Tully 148mm (n/a), Bowen 7mm (n/a), Charters Towers 13mm (n/a), Georgetown 22mm (3) and Normanton A/P 2mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 6mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P 0.0 (n/a), Boulia 0.00mm (8), Windorah 0.0mm (9), Cloncurry n/a (4), Mt Isa 0.0mm (5), Longreach 0.4mm (14), Muttaburra 3mm (13), Winton 5mm (6) and Charleville 6mm (22).

Central Region: Clermont recorded 19mm (21), Alpha 24mm (22), Springsure 34mm (26), Mackay 24mm (29), Yaamba 50mm (26), Biloela A/P 99mm (27), Mt Larcom 70mm (36), Gladstone 62mm (32), and Theodore 64mm (31).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 119mm (34), Gayndah 117mm (36), Mundubbera 171mm (34), Esk 54mm (35), Kilkivan 148mm (39), Kingaroy 105mm (n/a), Nanango 94 (40), Proston 120 (35), and Beaudesert 52mm (43). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 125mm (38), Maryborough 89mm (45), Nambour 100mm (57) and Tewantin 168mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 34mm (38), Dalby 60mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 65mm (n/a), Inglewood 33mm (37), Oakey 52mm (30), Pittsworth 28mm (40), Stanthorpe 33mm (48), Toowoomba A/P 67mm (n/a), Warwick 35mm (n/a), Roma 39mm (n/a), Miles 58mm (n/a), St George A/P 30mm (n/a) and Taroom 42mm (31).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water continues to be depleted however, most properties have adequate water supplies to see them through until the wet season. Light showers over a 3-4 day period has provided small relief for existing pasture conditions but with no runoff for surface water supplies. All major rivers are still flowing. Surface supplies range from adequate in the southern coastal areas to desperately low inland.

West Region: Property storages continue to recede and are now a major concern for affected producers. The lack of surface water could prove to be a real problem as the season progresses. Surface water supplies are at critical levels with many dams dry and/or rapidly receding.

Central Region: Useful rain was received in the Central district during August. Although the rain appeared to have fallen in the same areas as in June, it will be beneficial. No frosts have been reported immediately after the rain, so pastures should continue to grow well. There was some moderate, though isolated runoff, generated from the storm activity in the higher rainfall areas during the month. Shortage of surface water may become a problem in western areas in the coming months.

South-East Region: Major irrigation dams in the North Burnett are still at low levels. There have been minor flows in the Burnett and Boyne rivers. In the Gatton area bores vary in levels. Allocations for irrigation from Fred Haigh dam are now at their lowest levels. Recent rainfall has not impacted greatly on the existing water levels.

South Region: The dry spell continued over southern inland Queensland and the Darling Downs during August with the only relief coming in the form of a rain influence which brought moderate to isolated heavy falls to the northern, central and eastern Downs. Water levels in most groundwater aquifer systems are now declining. The continuing poor season in the Border Rivers is reflected in flow volumes for August. The Severn River at Ballandean did not flow whilst the Dumaresq experienced similar conditions.

 

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

 

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) link The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.

 

data sourced from:
data sourced from: The Department
of Primary Industries and Fisheries
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