SITUATION AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2002
A rather mixed seasonal outlook has developed across the state for
January to March 2003. There has been an improvement in the rainfall
outlook for many western, central western and north western regions of
the state (roughly west of the line from approximately Camooweal to
Charleville). However for the south east corner of Queensland, the
chance of above median rainfall remains relatively low at around 20-40%.
For example, currently there is a 68% chance of getting above the long
term January to March median rainfall of 112mm at Quilpie. This compares
with a 30% chance of getting above the long term January to March median
rainfall of 440mm at Boonah.
While the improvement in rainfall probabilities across much of the state
indicates the potential for some very useful relief rain, an El Nino sea
temperature pattern still persists in the central Pacific Ocean. It is
expected that this pattern is likely to persist in some form until at
least autumn. The monthly value of the SOI for November was minus 4.1
and for December was minus 13.4. Based on these monthly values the SOI
is in a "Rapidly Falling" phase. The 30 day average of the SOI has risen
slightly since the start of the month and as of the 6/1/03 is minus 9.2.
Daily updated SOI values are available on (07) 46881439.
Many producers and industry groups are interested in how climate
forecasts can be used in management decisions. Some interesting case
studies developed by the Climate Variability in Agriculture Program
(CVAP) can be found at http://www.cvap.gov.au/mastersoftheclimate/ These
case studies highlight how some producers have used climate information
in their management decisions.
The latest outlook maps are available on the DPI climate page
www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or on www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au
STATE OVERVIEW:
There has been some rainfall across the State but much of it was
scattered with isolated storms, resulting in significant storm damage in
parts of the South East. Pasture is in limited supply and of poor
quality in most areas. Summer crop plantings have been limited in most
areas due to the dry conditions. During December, following
recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister for
Primary Industries and Rural Communities declared under state drought
process a shire declaration for the shires of Brisbane, Caboolture,
Caloundra, Crows Nest, Esk, Gold Coast, Kilcoy, Logan, Mackay, Maroochy,
Mirani, Noosa, Pine Rivers, Redcliffe, Redlands and Sarina. On 01
January 2003 the shires of Atherton, Bowen, Eacham, Emerald, Herberton,
Whitsunday and the remainder of Belyando not covered by the 12 November
2002 declaration were also declared under state processes. There are
now 75 shires and 1 part shire drought declared which represents
approximately 42.7% of the State. There are also 709 Individually
Droughted Properties in a further 30 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: Scattered showers and storms towards the end of December
provided some welcome relief across the north. Overall the season
remains dry and significant rain is needed in the near future. Stock
continue to be supplemented across the region but as the costs increase
and fodder becomes harder to source, this option is becoming less
attractive. Stock are generally in fair to poor condition. The dairy
industry on the Tablelands is struggling as many have only supplementary
or no irrigation available and pastures are in poor condition and
impacting on milk production. The cane crop varies on a district basis,
with the Tully and Burdekin areas looking good, yet in the
Mossman/Mulgrave, Herbert and Tableland areas, the crop is suffering
from the dry.
West Region: No effective rainfall was recorded during the month.
Areas outside the drought declared shires continue to deteriorate.
Feeding has increased and is now aiming to provide greater amounts of
protein and high energy. The destocking process has stopped due to
market closures and the unmarketability of many stock. Stock are
currently being retained on properties and feeding programs stepped up.
Surface water supplies continue to be a major concern across the region
with many on-property storages dry or rapidly receding. Lack of water
and pasture supplies have forced the closure of stock routes.
Central Region: There has been some rainfall in the northern and
southern Highlands with these areas experiencing isolated storms in the
latter half of the month. Further rainfall up to 75mm fell over the
Christmas period with areas of hail which damaged some of the cotton
crops in the district. December has been very warm with some patchy
rain falling in the middle and towards the end of the month in the
Dawson Callide. Most of the rain reported fell on Christmas Day and
Boxing Day and as it fell quickly, most was lost as runoff rather than
soaking in.
South-East Region: December rainfall was patchy and generally below
average for most centres. There was significant storm damage in the
horticultural areas around Gatton, Gin Gin and Mundubbera. Some falls
have helped pasture growth and replenished dams and watercourses. Most
cropping areas have now planted, but there are still areas that are very
marginal.
South Region: 25 to 70mm of rain was recorded in the eastern portion of
the region and 10 to 25mm in western areas during December. Pasture is
in limited supply and quality in most areas. Stock condition varies
with animals in the western zone worst affected. Summer crop plantings
have been limited due to dry conditions.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Supplementary feeding of all lines of stock is occurring
and milk production in the dairy herds remains low in the Malanda Stock
District. Although there have been some scattered falls in the Charters
Towers Stock District and some bigger totals in the Mingela/Ravenswood
area, these have generally done little to encourage pasture growth and
have created little runoff to replenish surface water supplies. Stock
condition continues to deteriorate as the reliance of supplements
increases in line with pasture depletion. Townsville Stock District
remains very dry and all stock owners are involved in some form of
supplementary feeding program. Pasture condition in the Bowen and
Whitsunday shires is limited and what remains is low quality. All
properties are generally engaged in drought feeding with the rain that
has fallen being too isolated to relieve the drought situation.
West Region: Some very isolated storms in the Cloncurry area delivered
reasonable to handy falls for those properties or portions of properties
fortunate enough to be under them. No other areas had any significant
rainfalls recorded and as a result pastures across the North West
continue to deteriorate. Producers continue to reduce stock numbers by
selling and/or agistment. However, suitable agistment is proving
difficult to secure. In the Central West, no significant rainfall was
recorded and stock being transported out of the area has ceased, due to
annual market closures and the unmarketability of stock. The areas of
Isisford, Longreach, Barcaldine and Blackall, Tambo, Augathella,
Charleville continue to deteriorate. Much of the bulk feed that was
remaining has been consumed either by stock or kangaroos. No beneficial
rain has been received in the South West and the area is deteriorating,
particularly in eastern Murweh where IDP applications are increasing.
Central Region: There has been some good rainfall in the region, but
it has been scattered and has not made a big difference. This has
resulted in some green pick but generally feed quality is poor and
quantity low. Condition of stock varies across the region.
South-East Region: In the Beaudesert district, stock are generally in
strong condition but the condition of breeders with calves at foot
varies across the shire, depending on supplementary feeding and
irrigation availability. In Gympie, most commercial farmers have
reduced numbers and are supplementary feeding. Stock condition is fair
in the South Burnett but breeders that have bigger calves on them are
suffering. There are quite a few properties in the area that have
weaned early to reduce the effects of the dry on breeders. Stock sales
have continued with smaller numbers and reasonable prices given the
season. There is little or no agistment available. There is some green
pick available in the Beaudesert district following approximately 90mm
of rain during the month, but this was restricted to the northern
portion of the shire. Pasture is either in very short supply or
non-existent throughout the shire. Pasture quantity is extremely low in
Gympie and the South Burnett, with any pasture growth resulting from
useful rain being quickly eaten off, or burnt off with the hot dry winds
in the following days. In the Boonah district, there is a green tinge
in pastures but there has not been enough rainfall to produce worthwhile
pasture bulk. Pastures have responded well at Monto after isolated
heavy storm rainfall. Areas to the east of Gayndah also reported good
storm rains and pastures have responded well in these areas.
South Region: Stock condition varies throughout the region. Animals in
the western zone and Border Rivers area are worst affected. Livestock
condition ranges from score 1 to score 3. Wool prices have risen
substantially over the last twelve months. Limited pasture has forced
widespread destocking throughout the year and feeding remaining stock
has proved very expensive. Pasture availability is becoming critically
short for large portions of the region. Warm and wet conditions are
required to stimulate pasture growth and the unfavourable hot, dry
conditions being experienced have limited the quality and quantity.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region: Some peanut crops have been planted on the Tablelands
but generally only by farmers with irrigation. The other areas are
waiting on rain before planting but the ideal planting window is coming
to a close. The potato harvest has finished with quality and yields
generally good. The mango harvest continues with generally good yields.
In the Dry Tropics, the vegetable cropping season is currently in a ley
period with cover crops in. The Herbert River area is very dry
resulting in slow growth of ratoon cane. The sugar cane crop in the
Innisfail/Tully area is growing well. In the Burdekin district, the dry
clear weather and an abundance of irrigation water has allowed growers
to complete fertilising and pest control giving the crop its maximum
growth potential.
Central Region: There were heavy falls of rain later in the month in
the Central Highlands but reports are indicating that these events were
not enough to plant sorghum on a large scale. Individual paddocks may
be planted. With the optimum planting time for sorghum closing, growers
are considering planting "high risk" sorghum (planting without a full
profile of moisture and therefore relying on in-crop rainfall to provide
adequate yield) if a planting rain occurs shortly. The on-farm water
storages do not have much water and this has restricted the broadacre
irrigated crop plantings to date. A small area of sorghum was planted
this month in the Callide, although the area was less than anticipated
due to the less than ideal planting moisture. Very few mung beans have
been planted, although the area of forage crops (irrigated and dryland)
is higher this season due to the demand for hay at present. Some of the
sorghum planted in Spring is starting to be harvested. Most paddocks
are still being fallowed from last year's wheat crop and need another
50-60cm of soil moisture before the profile is full.
South-East Region: The summer cropping situation varies markedly.
Areas that have received useful rainfall have planted but there is
little subsoil moisture and significant soaking rain is needed to ensure
a worthwhile crop. The ideal planting window for peanuts has closed but
some have taken a risk and planted late. Coalstoun Lakes has had a
better start to the season with most areas planted to corn or peanuts.
There have been some crops planted in the Monto district but on some
properties there has not been enough rainfall for successful crop
establishment. Extensive damage was caused by a hailstorm in the Gin
Gin district with losses of mature mango, lychee and small crops such as
pumpkin and cucumber. Younger avocado, citrus, passionfruit and custard
apple crops were also severely damaged and one banana plantation
received extensive damage. In the Nambour district there has been
100-200mm of rain which has filled some dams and helped crop growth.
Most horticultural crops have been under stress due to the dry weather.
In the Gatton district there has been considerable storm damage to
lettuce, tree crops, tomatoes and capsicums. Reports of hail in the
Mundubbera district have seen some orchards lose a high percentage of
their crop. Many field grown vegetable crops in the Gympie district
have failed due to lack of rain. Un-irrigated tree crops such as
macadamias have low yields.
South Region: The first reasonable widespread rain since August fell in
the second week of December. Most farmers in the western Downs are
still waiting for planting rain and planting can be delayed to the end
of January. In the Stanthorpe shire, irrigation water is limited.
Production and fruit quality will be adversely affected as will this
year's bud development. Grapes have been affected by poor pollination,
low yields, low production and poorer quality fruit. Vegetable
production has dropped due to lack of irrigation water. Fire has
destroyed some grape and fruit trees.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 178mm (331) Cairns A/P 72mm (190),
Malanda 42mm (146), Ingham 81mm (217), Innisfail 115mm (n/a), Townsville
25mm (148), Tully 82mm (n/a), Bowen 14mm (n/a), Charters Towers 24mm
(n/a), Georgetown 79mm (112) and Normanton A/P 88mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P
31mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P 2mm (n/a), Boulia 6mm (28), Windorah 0.5mm
(27), Cloncurry 5mm (58), Mt Isa 7mm (62), Longreach 20mm (51),
Muttaburra 8mm (59), Winton 7mm (51) and Charleville 12mm (53).
Central Region: Clermont recorded 21mm (101), Alpha 45 (85), Springsure
54mm (107), Mackay 28mm (197), Yaamba 54mm (131), Biloela A/P 74mm
(102), Mt Larcom 64mm (150), Gladstone 70mm (140), and Theodore 72mm
(102).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 68mm (86), Gayndah 32mm (112),
Mundubbera 46mm (100), Esk 232mm (111), Kilkivan 89mm (124), Kingaroy
69mm (n/a), Nanango 60mm (108), Proston 53mm (108), and Beaudesert 92mm
(128). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 79mm (138), Maryborough
86mm (134), Nambour 180mm (180) and Tewantin 173mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 82mm (109), Dalby 134mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 97mm
(n/a), Inglewood 102mm (86), Oakey 171mm (93), Pittsworth 72mm (104),
Stanthorpe 122mm (93), Toowoomba A/P 166mm (n/a), Warwick 63mm (n/a),
Roma 24mm (n/a), Miles 62mm (n/a), St George A/P 71mm (n/a) and Taroom
59mm (104).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Water supplies are still generally low with no
significant flows in rivers and creeks this month.
West Region: On-property surface storages continue to recede and are
now a major concern for affected producers. Large tracts of country
within the Diamantina shire have been destocked as a result of the lack
of water, regardless of the feed availability.
Central Region: There are very few natural flows in the Fitzroy or
western streams. Storm rain in late December caused very small runs in
the Upper Dawson and in the Boyne/Calliope. There was insufficient flow
to permit water harvesting and there are unlikely to be any worthwhile
increases in water storage levels.
South-East Region: All major water storages in the region are at low
levels. Irrigation bores and dams are also failing in most districts.
While some rainfall totals received during the month are significant,
much of the rainfall was patchy and in storms that have in many cases
caused damage.
South Region: There are parts of Balonne, Waroo, Inglewood, Stanthorpe,
Warwick and Waggamba shires which are experiencing severe water
shortages. The quality of the dam water is a concern as water levels
recede. Bores and creeks are at a record low.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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