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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose from +2.6 at the end of January to +7.1 at the end of February. Based on this shift in the monthly value of the SOI over the January/February period the SOI is now in a 'Rapidly Rising' phase. Despite the continued rise in the SOI over the last two months the probability of above median rainfall for the March to May period across most of the south and south east of Queensland remains relatively low. For the area bordered by the Miriam Vale, Taroom, Murilla, Rosalie, Jondaryan and Boonah shires there is only a low 30 to 40% probability of getting above the long term March to May median rainfall. Low probabilities of 40 to 50% exist for the rest of the south eastern areas and extends into western Queensland and includes parts of Winton and Boulia shires. Across the northern parts of the state the probability of getting above median rainfall is relatively higher at around 50 to 80%. There is evidence that the impetus for an El Niņo event later this year continues to strengthen. Much of this evidence is based on the sub-surface sea temperatures and the recent reoccurrence of strong westerly wind bursts in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. More definitive information will not be available until later in Autumn due to variability that exist in equatorial patterns over the next few months. It is worth remembering that in Queensland a 'classic' El Niņo event is not needed to reduce rainfall. A warmer than normal sea surface temperature pattern in the central equatorial Pacific in coexistence with a negative SOI pattern can form and negatively influence our rainfall patterns without an El Niņo event in existence. Current advice is to closely monitor information on SOI trends and sea surface temperature patterns. A dramatic drop in SOI values between March and April would further substantiate the potential for reduced rainfall in many districts.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Good rainfall across northern Queensland has alleviated the dry conditions northern producers were experiencing this season. Overall the north is now in generally good shape and should experience an average season. The rest of the state remains patchy with rain continuing to deliver good benefits to those lucky enough to be under a storm while in other areas the wait for rain continues. Some good totals were recorded in drier areas this month, such as the south western and border districts, which relieved the dry conditions and promoted a pasture response. In the far south west many producers have undertaken destocking and moving stock to agistment. As at 31 January 2002 there are 24 shires and 1 part shire drought declared under state drought processes. The area declared represents 6.13% of the land area of the state. There are also 395 Individually Drought Declared Properties (IDPs) in a further 36 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region:

A monsoonal trough delivered heavy rain across much of the northern region this month resulting in flooding in some catchments. Above average rainfall was recorded in the coastal belt from Ingham to the lower Burdekin extending inland to Etheridge Shire the northern part of Dalrymple Shire. Similar rainfall was also recorded along the western coast of the Peninsula. Coastal parts from Cairns to Cape Melville were drier than normal, as was the Kurumba/Normanton area.

West Region:

The hot conditions of the previous month have subsided with a rain band passing over the southern districts of the region providing some welcome relief. In the northern and central western parts the season remains patchy and pastures and livestock are deteriorating.

Central Region:

Rainfall was generally below average across the region with the highest falls recorded around the Mackay district. Conditions generally declined across the region with significant rain required prior to winter to improve the situation. Summer crops in the southern and northern highlands look reasonable but require further rain. In the central areas between Gindie and Clermont virtually no summer crop has been planted. Sorghum and mungbean crops are being harvested in the Dawson Callide districts with generally below average yields.

South-East Region:

Hot dry conditions and erratic storm rain typified the climate pattern this month. Broadacre, cane and horticulture crop yields have been badly affected by the conditions. Grazing areas that have received rain have improved considerably but further rain with runoff is needed to alleviate the dry conditions.

South Region:

Rainfall up to 200mm was recorded in the north western parts of the region however most of the region received significantly less. Extreme heat and limited subsoil moisture has affected crop production in most parts and yields have decreased. A good response to pasture growth was recorded in the higher rainfall areas and stock condition generally remains satisfactory.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region:

In the Peninsula and Tablelands district the season has been average but rain has been sufficient for good pasture growth and cattle are in improving to excellent condition. In the Normanton district rainfall has been varied with the heavier falls north and east of Normanton. Some properties in the Georgetown area received in excess of 500mm. Pasture growth has been good but more rain is needed to replenish water storages. In the Charters Towers district heavy rainfall caused major flooding in the basalt country and around Pentland. Generally the district averaged around 150mm with some properties in the south east receiving around 50mm. Overall pasture is adequate across the district with some shortages being experienced in the south east. Stock condition is generally good and improving as pastures respond to recent rainfall. Good general rain over most of the Bowen district this month has seen an improvement in pasture and livestock condition throughout. Some lines of stock are reported to be in excellent condition. Heavy rainfall throughout the Townsville district has alleviated the dry conditions and further follow up rain has lead to greatly improving stock and pasture condition.

West Region:

In the north west the rainfall continued to be patchy this month with the area south of the Townsville to Mt Isa railway line experiencing a very dry season. In the central west the rainfall was generally below average this month with areas south west of Longreach experiencing successive seasons of below average rainfall. Beneficial rain in the south west has improved conditions in an area that has been experiencing very dry conditions to date. Although the rain did not cover all areas a large part of the district will benefit with improved pasture growth.

Central Region:

In the Jericho and Springsure districts pasture and stock condition generally remains good. In the remainder of the region the season remains patchy with stock and pasture varying throughout. Dry conditions around Duaringa, Nebo and Capella are impacting on stock condition and producers are progressively lightening stock numbers. South East Region: Pastures remain variable, ranging from very short to adequate depending on rainfall. In some districts the hot conditions experience early in the year has caused pastures to die back and will require significant rain to regenerate prior to winter. Generally stock are holding condition but are not improving as normal for this time of year.

South Region:

The season remains patchy in the south with some areas experiencing a reasonable season while others are still struggling with the dry conditions. Relieving rain fell in many districts this month and stock and pasture has responded well.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE

North Region:

Planting commenced in the Bowen district this month assisted by some useful falls of rain. In the wet tropics below average rainfall and hot weather has stressed crops, particularly bananas with some crops requiring replanting. On the Atherton Tablelands and adjacent cropping districts the summer crops of peanuts and maize are generally growing well despite the relatively dry month. Baling of hay and harvesting of pasture seed is also occurring. The coastal cane growing areas around Ingham and the lower Burdekin received extensive rainfall and some flooding this month negating earlier concerns about lack of water. Most of the other cane growing districts had average or below average rainfall.

Central Region:

On the Central Highlands growers in the southern areas have fully planted the areas they had set aside for summer crops. Some crops are beginning to exhibit moisture stress with minimum rain this month. In the Mt McLaren and Kilcummin area numerous rainfall events have just been enough to keep crops developing with sorghum, mung beans, corn and sunflower all looking good. The area between Gindie and Clermont remains very dry and virtually no summer crop has been planted with the planting window all almost closed. Growers in this area have now missed consecutive crops with the failure of crops in the 2000/01 season. In the Dawson and Callide Valleys the rainfall has been patchy this month with temperatures remaining relatively high. Most of the mungbean crop was harvested this month with yields generally lower than average. Many of the sorghum crops are now being harvested with most recording reduced yields due to hot conditions and little in crop rain. Isolated pockets have missed out on a summer crop and these growers will now have to wait until the next planting period which is about April onwards.

South-East Region:

Early planted crops have suffered big yield losses due to little in crop rain and hot conditions. Most crops had very lush vegetative growth as a result of the good planting rain but this made it difficult for the crops to handle the hot conditions in the New Year. In the Burnett corn crops have been cut for silage, fed off to cattle and in some cases ploughed in. Peanut crops have held on well under the dry conditions but will need significant rain to set a productive crop. Hot conditions have placed extra demand on irrigation supplies in the Gatton district. In the Nambour district the lychee and stone fruit harvest has finished with average yields. The cane crop in the Bundaberg and Childers continues to suffer from dry conditions this month with increased demand on irrigation needed to keep crops going. In the Maryborough district the cane crop has received some useful but patchy rain and maintains the potential for good yields.

South Region:

Hot conditions over summer have diminished potential yields in crops across the region. Many crops planted on the excellent rain at the end of last year have been severely stressed by the hot weather with some crops failing. Mung beans have been harvested at Roma and Wandoan with average yields recorded.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region:

Babinda received 298mm (738) Cairns A/P 213mm (422), Malanda 169mm (286), Ingham 511mm (410), Innisfail 362mm (n/a), Townsville 538mm (232), Tully 436mm (n/a), Bowen 185mm (n/a), Charters Towers 213mm (n/a), Georgetown 345mm (208) and Normanton A/P 113mm (n/a).

West Region:

Birdsville A/P 28mm (n/a), Boulia 44mm (41), Windorah 12mm (45), Cloncurry 60mm (97), Mt Isa 118mm (86), Longreach 14mm (69), Muttaburra 25mm (71), Winton 6mm (80), Eromanga 79mm (33), Augathella 130mm (64) and Charleville 132mm (55).

Central Region:

Clermont recorded 94mm (104), Alpha 43mm (81), Springsure 65mm (113), Mackay 164mm (302), Yaamba 21mm (127), Proserpine A/P 304mm (n/a), Biloela A/P 44mm (83), Mt Larcom 60mm (129), Gladstone 42mm (140), and Theodore 15mm (90).

South-East Region:

Eidsvold recorded 46mm (81), Gayndah 109mm (87), Mundubbera 58mm (74), Esk 102mm (100), Kilkivan 105mm (94), Kingaroy 37mm (n/a), Murgon 148mm (92), Nanango 83mm (86), Proston 94mm (77), and Beaudesert (n/a) (109). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 31mm (148), Maryborough 133mm (163), Nambour 123mm (224) and Tewantin 50mm (n/a).

South Region:

Clifton 17mm (87), Dalby 81mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 59mm (n/a), Inglewood 38mm (68), Oakey 74mm (84), Pittsworth 98mm (76), Stanthorpe 40mm (82), Toowoomba 60mm (n/a), Warwick 69mm (n/a), Roma 98mm (n/a), Miles 118mm (60), St George A/P 69mm (n/a) and Taroom 54mm (76).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region:

Flooding across the region this month replenished stock and irrigation supplies to alleviate a situation that was becoming critical in some areas. Irrigation water is low in the Mareeba and Atherton districts with little run off from recent rain. Stock water is generally adequate although some dams are not yet full.

West Region:

Generally on property storages continue to recede. The Bulloo River recorded significant flows resulting from rain received during the last weeks of the month.

Central Region:

Streamflows in all streams in the region were below the means for February. Carting water for stock is occurring in the Biloela district and eastern parts of Bauhinia Shire. Surface water for stock is low in Duaringa and Nebo areas.

South-East Region:

Major irrigation dams in the North Burnett are still at low levels as are dams in the Gatton/Laidley area and the Moogerah Dam at Boonah. Farm dam supplies vary but in general more rain is needed to replenish levels.

South Region:

Surface water for livestock remains low with runoff from recent rain minimal. Rainfall this month decreased demand on irrigation supplies but generally supplies remain low.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.