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SITUATION AS AT 31 JANUARY 2002
OUTLOOK:
The thirty day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen
from -11.2 at the end of December to +2.6 at the end of January. Based on
this shift in the monthly value of the SOI over December/January the SOI is
now in a 'Rapidly Rising' phase. This shift continues the roller coaster
ride the SOI has been on for the last 10-12 months. The recent pattern of
the SOI indicates the probability of above median rainfall for February to
April remains relatively positive, at 50 to 70%, for the central west and
north west of the state. However, despite the rise in the SOI value the
rainfall probabilities for the February to April period for the rest of the
state remain low at 30 to 50%. For those who like to follow historical
patterns more closely, years in the past that had a 'Rapidly Rising' SOI
phase in December/January include 1996, 1986, 1982, 1980, 1977, 1968, 1967,
1963, 1954, 1953, 1940, 1937, 1935, 1931, 1930, 1920, 1902 and 1901. While
sea patterns in the pacific are currently primed in a classic pre El Nino
pattern, there is still a way to go before an El Nino develops. The
Queensland Centre for Climate Applications (QCCA) continues to monitor the
situation closely.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Patchy could best describe Queenslands season to date. Once again scattered
storms and showers and hot dry conditions were a feature this month.
Tropical Cyclone 'Bernie' became the first cyclone to impact on Queensland
this season but failed to deliver the big falls producers were hoping for.
However it did provide some relief with the resulting rainfall depression
providing some rain in most parts of northern, western and central
Queensland. In the cropping regions crops range from excellent to failures
with the success of most crops hinging on when it was planted and where the
storms fell. The hot conditions continue to effect crop yields throughout
the state and rainfall is the only thing that will turn this decline around.
Harvesting of summer crop has begun on the western Darling Downs with
average yields to date. The planting window for summer crops has all but
closed with some areas on the Central Highlands yet to receive planting
rains. Growers may still have a chance to plant sunflowers or corn if
significant rain is received in early February. The sorghum price remains
good as the yield estimates lessen with the dry conditions. In the grazing
regions the patchy season is being reflected with stock and pasture
conditions varying significantly within districts. Overall the northern and
central areas are in a holding pattern with storms providing some relief
this month. In the far south west the season continues to deteriorate with
no relieving rainfall recorded this month. The cattle market eased slightly
this month but overall remains buoyant. As at 31 January 2002 there are 24
shires and 1 part shire drought declared under state drought processes. The
area declared represents 6.13% of the land area of the state. There are
also 343 Individually Drought Declared Properties (IDPs) in a further 32
shires
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region:
Relatively dry conditions continued over much of the north during January.
The season remains patchy with only storm rains being recorded. The gulf
region has had a greater exposure to storms than the southern areas and is
therefore faring better at present. February is historically the wettest
month in the north and producers are hoping for general monsoonal rains.
West Region:
Most areas of western Queensland have experienced heat wave conditions
during January which reduced the potential of pasture growth in many areas.
With the exception of the shires in eastern half of the central west the
majority are experience marginal conditions and further widespread rainfall
is required. The shires in the south west corner of the state have received
little beneficial rainfall this season and stock condition continues to
deteriorate.
Central Region:
Rainfalls were generally below average for January across the region except
for the coastal areas around Mackay. Patchy rainfall throughout has offered
temporary relief in some areas but significant falls are needed to relieve
the situation in the longer term. Summer crop planting opportunities are
diminishing and those crops that have been planted will need further rain to
ensure survival. Stock and pasture condition has generally improved
marginally but further falls are needed to ensure winter prospects are
favourable.
South-East Region:
Hot conditions and erratic storms cause significant yield loss in crops
across the region this month. The majority of centres recorded below the
median rainfall and significant general rain with runoff is needed to
alleviate the dry conditions.
South Region:
The hot conditions continued this month. Rainfall was well below median
with falls in the eastern part of the region below 25mm and the wester area
recording marginally better with falls generally between 25 to 50mm.
Pasture growth was limited and stock condition remains satisfactory. Crop
production will be heavily dependant on useful rain in February.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region:
Some good falls of rain were recorded in the Charters Towers district this
month, particularly in the western areas near Pentland and the southern
areas towards Clermont where falls averaged 200 to 250mm. There are still
some patches that have missed out on runoff and surface water supplies
remain low as a result. Stock and pasture condition has improved with rain
but the heat has impacted on growth. In the Bowen district rainfall was
limited to scattered showers and storms over the whole district with only
the odd property not benefiting to some degree. Pasture response has been
sufficient but more rain will be needed for it to reach potential. Stock
remain in average condition but are improving with the season. In the Gulf
and Peninsular districts rainfall was limited to the far north except for
some influence from Tropical Cyclone (TC) Bernie in the Gulf region. There
has been little monsoonal activity and TC Bernie didn't deliver the rainfall
producers were hoping for. Pasture condition is average with most areas
having some growth but as yet there is no real body of feed available.
Stock condition is fair to average with the majority of breeders now having
a calf on the ground. In the Townsville district the rainfall was similar
to rest of the north and was limited to scattered showers and storms with no
major falls to report. Pasture response has been as varied as the rainfall
but most areas have seen some response. Stock condition has improved in
line with the pasture but any gains will be temporary if further rain is not
forthcoming. On the Tablelands stock and pasture condition is improving
after good rainfall and growing conditions this month.
West Region:
In the north west rainfall was limited to patchy storms with some good falls
recorded throughout the district. High temperatures have burnt off pasture
response from rainfall early in the season. Generally the season is average
but declining and will need substantial rain to improve the outlook. In the
central west the eastern shires have received beneficial rain during January
and coupled with good falls early in the season pasture and stock are
generally in above average condition for this time of year. The shires west
and south west of Longreach have recorded no significant rain and pasture
and stock condition is poor. In the south west the northern half of Murweh
and Quilpie shires received sufficient rainfall to encourage pasture growth
and some follow up rain will ensure a generally average season in these
areas. The Paroo, Barcoo, Bulloo, Diamantina shires and the remaining area
of Quilpie and Murweh shires have not received any beneficial rain this
month as pastures and livestock continue to deteriorate.
Central Region:
Widespread rain in the Alpha stock district has resulted in good pasture
response and stock are generally in good condition. In the Emerald and
Clermont stock districts scattered storms occurred during January which
freshen pasture in some areas. The eastern portions of the Belyando, Peak
Downs and Emerald shires running into the Broadsound and Duaringa Shires is
experiencing very dry conditions with little relief this month. In the
Springsure stock district storm activity has resulted in most areas
receiving reasonable rain with pastures and livestock in good to excellent
condition. There is still an area in the north east of the Bauhinia shire
that has missed out on any significant rain and shortages of surface water
is occurring. In the Biloela and Theodore stock districts rain was limited
to some good storms early in the month but given the good rain in December
these storms provided good follow up rain. There are still some dry areas
particularly in the southern areas of the Banana shire and north western
areas of the Monto shire. In the Rockhampton stock district the season has
been patchy and stock and pasture condition reflect the scattered nature of
the rainfall. Some producers have yet to receive a break to the season and
water shortages are being experienced in the Duaringa shire.
South East Region:
In most areas stock are maintaining condition despite the dry season. Given
that this is the time of year when stock should be improving in condition
further rainfall will be required for this to occur. Pastures are variable
ranging from short to adequate depending upon rainfall. In many districts
the hot conditions have affected quality and significant rainfall will be
required for pastures to regenerate before winter.
South Region:
The hot conditions have impacted on pasture growth, with the benefits of
rainfall early in the season quickly diminishing. Stock condition varies
across the region with the effects of good pasture response in
November/December being reflected with a general improvement in condition.
However, the deteriorating pasture conditions now been experienced will
impact on stock if relieving rain is not received. The south west of the
Balonne shire is experiencing very dry conditions with pasture and water
shortages occurring. Drought supplementation is increasing while other
producers are electing to send stock on agistment or put them on the road.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region:
In the Bowen area growers have commenced ground preparation for planting in
late February to early March. Low soil moisture levels mean that further
rain in February will be needed for planting. In the wet tropics January
was very hot and dry. Irrigation demand has been high for all crops and
some are showing the effects of heat stress. On the Atherton Tablelands and
adjacent cropping districts the new season peanut and maize crops are
generally looking good. In the cane growing districts the hot dry
conditions have been conducive to healthier plants with less competition
from weeds.
Central Region:
In the Dawson/Callide valleys hot weather and patchy rainfall has caused
stress in flowering and grain filling summer crops. Most areas had good
rain in the new year but hot weather has quickly sapped most of this
moisture. Harvesting of spring planted crops has commenced with average to
good yields recorded. Later planted crops will need rain in the next few
weeks to maximise yields set up from good planting rains. Paddocks that
haven't already been planted will be now held over for a winter crop
although some growers may elect to plant corn in February depending on
rainfall over the next few weeks. On the Central Highlands most areas south
of Emerald have received enough rain for planting opportunities with
approximately 70,000 hectares of sorghum planted between Gindie and
Rolleston. Some of the storms in this area were quite vigorous in intensity
with one storm dumping 350 to 400mm in a single four hour event, causing
extensive soil erosion and damage to contour, banks fences and roads. In
the northern highlands most farms in the Dysart, Mt McLaren and Kilcummin
districts have been able to plant some sorghum or mungbeans. These areas
are still on the dry side and most crops need follow up rain in the next few
weeks. The area between Clermont and Emerald remains particularly dry and
very few crops have been planted. This area needs upwards of 100mm this
month to offer planting opportunities for sunflowers or corn.
South-East Region:
Early planted crops have been severely stressed from lack of rainfall and
heatwave conditions, although a minority of crops have benefited from storm
rains. Harvesting of millet crops has occurred and with their short growth
period most have yielded well. Sorghum crops throughout have been adversely
affected from the dry conditions and need rain to reverse the declining
trend. All crops in the Gatton district are suffering and the hot
conditions have required extra irrigation of horticulture crops. In the
Bundaberg district rockmelons, pumpkins and watermelons are in season and a
range of crops such as tomatoes, zucchinis, squash and eggfruit are being
harvested. In the Nambour district dry conditions have caused premature
fruit drop in avocadoes and the lychee and stone fruit harvest has finished
with average yields. The cane crop in the Bundaberg and Childers districts
is suffering from dry conditions and irrigation has been needed to maintain
crops. Cane in the Maryborough district still has the potential to produce
a larger than average if significant rainfall occurs.
South Region:
The hot conditions continued to be experience throughout the region again
this month and potential crop yields have diminished. Harvesting early sown
sorghum crops has commenced in the Roma district while the later planted
crops will require further rain to reach potential.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region:
Babinda received 209mm (639) Cairns A/P 116mm (397), Malanda 104mm (267),
Ingham 98mm (398), Innisfail 201mm (n/a), Townsville 82mm (244), Tully 192mm
(n/a), Bowen 127mm (n/a), Charters Towers 176mm (n/a), Georgetown 372mm
(227) and Normanton A/P 190mm (n/a).
West Region:
Birdsville A/P 5mm (n/a), Boulia 32mm (56), Windorah 42mm (40), Cloncurry
A/P 28mm (n/a), Mt Isa 41mm (96), Longreach 70mm (67), Muttaburra 49mm (91),
Winton 32mm (78), Eromanga (n/a) (59), Augathella 95mm (73) and Charleville
124mm (70).
Central Region:
Clermont recorded 73mm (102), Alpha 42mm (102), Springsure 179mm (101),
Mackay 423mm (268), Yaamba 117mm (120), Proserpine A/P 210mm (n/a), Biloela
A/P 58mm (92), Mt Larcom 164mm (138), Gladstone 133mm (150), and Theodore
(n/a) (100).
South-East Region:
Eidsvold recorded 76mm (101), Gayndah 42mm (117), Mundubbera 35mm (105), Esk
28mm (132), Kilkivan 57mm (142), Kingaroy 8mm (n/a), Murgon 24mm (107),
Nanango 13mm (110), Proston 32mm (95), and Beaudesert (n/a) (123). On the
coastal fringe Bundaberg received 62mm (202), Maryborough 228mm (164),
Nambour 46mm (276) and Tewantin 86mm (n/a).
South Region:
Clifton 8mm (94), Dalby 46mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 27mm (n/a), Inglewood 20mm
(82), Oakey 12mm (83), Pittsworth 23mm (85), Stanthorpe 31mm (102),
Toowoomba 13mm (n/a), Warwick 20mm (n/a), Roma 56mm (n/a), Miles 90mm (102),
St George A/P 25mm (n/a) and Taroom 119mm (94).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region:
A distinct lack of runoff rain has placed pressure on most water storages in
the region with minimal flows in streams and rivers this season.
West Region:
Most of the major river systems in the central and north parts of the region
have had a significant flow for the spring/summer period. During January
the Warrego, Paroo, Bulloo, Barcoo and Thompson (down stream from Longreach)
rivers all recorded flows within the riverbanks. Little flooding of
significance has been reported.
Central Region:
The streamflow was below the mean for all streams in the region with the
Fitzroy and lower Dawson rivers averaging about 50% of their mean flow for
January. Localised flooding was recorded in the lower Comet catchment after
intense rainfall in the area. Stock water is low in parts of the Duaringa
and north east Bauhinia shires and isolated pockets throughout the region.
South-East Region:
Most irrigation dams in the North Burnett are still at low levels as are
dams in the Gatton/Laidley area. Stock water supplies in farm dams vary
depending on rainfall but in general more rain is needed to replenish
supplies.
South Region:
Surface water continues to be a problem throughout the region with little
runoff from recent rain.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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