Home

Back

page regenerated:
07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

Based on the recent pattern of the SOI over May and June, there is only a 10-30% chance of receiving or getting above the long term median rainfall for July to September for most of Queensland. The only exception to these low rainfall probabilities is in the north west of the state where the probability of getting above median rainfall is between 60-70%. However it is important to remember that the long term median rainfall for July to September is quite low in this area (eg 9mm at Richmond). Therefore high rainfall totals are not required to get above median rainfall for that part of the state. The monthly value of the SOI at the end of May was -13.8 and at the end of June was -6.8. Based on this shift in the value of the SOI over May and June, the SOI is now in a "Consistently Near Zero" Phase.

For example, based on the recent pattern of the SOI there is only a 9% chance of getting the long term July to September median rainfall of 96 mm at Kingaroy. Therefore there is a 91% chance of not getting the July to September median rainfall. Another way of looking at this is that in approximately one tenth of years (approximately 1 year out of 10) with the current SOI pattern has Kingaroy received its long term median July to September rainfall. Therefore in around nine tenths of years (9 years out of 10) with the current SOI pattern below median rainfall has been recorded at Kingaroy for July to September. For more climate related information contact the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23. Alternatively try the DPI's climate web site www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate on which the "Climate Note" can be found. The climate note contains more detailed information including rainfall probability maps, SST information etc. A recorded message with the 30 day average of the SOI is also available on 46881439.

STATE OVERVIEW:

In the North region rainfall has generally been low across the region this month. This has had a varied impact given that averages are low for this time of the year. In the extensive grazing lands low rainfall during winter is generally expected. Conditions continued to deteriorate in the West region during July following a spate of frosts and cold weather. Pastures are extremely low in nutritional value and are being heavily impacted by kangaroos. The Central district experienced variable conditions ranging from very poor to good, although most areas are in reasonable condition for this time of the year. South East region has suffered from severe frosts and dry conditions. Below average rainfall has typified the climate pattern for July with many centres having received no rainfall for the month. Cropping opportunities have not occurred. Low pasture availability in the Southern areas has seen the continuation of destocking via saleyards. With low rainfall prospects for the ensuring months, this could be seen as a continuing trend. Extensive rain is required to ensure the maintenance of stock condition. Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Rural Communities declared the shires of Balonne and Waggamba under State drought processes. These declarations represent 16% of the land area of the State. There are also 447 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 38 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: Rainfall has generally been low across the region this month. This has had a varied impact given that some averages are low for this time of the year. In the extensive grazing lands low rainfall during winter is generally expected. The most impact is being experienced in the cane and cropping areas that rely on regular falls for crop production. Cane crops are generally looking good with the exception in the Herbert area where relieving rain is needed. Colder than normal temperatures occurred throughout the region this month resulting in some frost damage and production losses to all crops. The number of IDP's continued to increase this month with seven properties now declared in the Bowen shire.

West Region: Conditions continued to deteriorate during July following a spate of frosts and cold weather. Standing pastures are extremely low in nutritional value and are being heavily impacted by kangaroos. In areas where adequate pasture bulk is present, supplementary feeding is providing livestock with much needed protein for maintenance. On properties where sufficient pasture bulk is not available to support a supplementation program producers have destocked those animals capable of travel. Rainfall is well below the median expectations for this period. Water supplies are a major concern across the region with many on-property storages dry or rapidly receding.

Central Region: Livestock condition was from very poor to good, although most are in reasonable condition for this time of the year. The cold weather is starting to affect some of the cattle. There is still some green grass to be seen, but only in improved pasture. Otherwise the quality of pasture varies according to the amount of rain received in June. The quantity is also very variable. There are some places where a shortage of pasture is due to stocking rates and others where the shortage is due to the lack of rainfall. The more "fortunate" have a body of feed that will see through to spring and still provide cover for the storms. Very little rain fell in the region in the month. The only report of rain came from Springsure, where there were a few showers, with up to 20 mm in southern areas. Supplementary feeding is on the increase. Water supply is still short in the north east of Bauhinia shire and becoming a problem in the west of that shire and in the south of Jericho towards Tambo.

South-East Region: Severe frosts, dry conditions and below average rainfall has typified the climate pattern for July in the South-East. Many centres have received no rainfall for the month. Cropping opportunities have not occurred, with the few crops planted now wilted and dying. Grazing areas have dried off significantly and it will be a long winter for livestock. Production in coastal horticulture and cane is being seriously affected by lack of irrigation water supplies and the dry conditions. Water supplies from the Fassifern valley through to Maryborough Bundaberg and the north Burnett are all low.

South Region: Rainfall received during the month of July was below average for the southern region. The prospects of reaching median yields for winter crops have been greatly reduced and without any short term rain, there will be no yields from the crops that have been sown. Low pasture availability has seen the continuation of destocking via saleyards and to feedlots and with low rainfall prospects for the ensuring months, this could be seen as a continuing trend. Extensive rain is needed over the region to promote winter forage and ensure the maintenance of stock condition. The prospects for higher then average falls for the next few months are low. This situation will effectively reduce the crop yield potential and animal production. Balonne shire has seen a rise in the number of IDP's issued.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: In the Mareeba district stock condition is starting to feel the effect of the drier weather with producers starting to engage in supplementation feeding. Pastures are dwindling in supply, although if early storms are received the bulk should be sufficient to carry the stock through. Most managed herds that have had a good weaning muster now have cows in reasonable condition. Dalrymple Shire has not improved since last month with very little or no rain recorded for the month of July and the areas in the east and southwest are critically low with surface water and limited pasture in these areas. Stock condition is store for breeders with some backward to that condition with larger calves at foot and non-breeders seem to be holding slightly better. Pasture quality has slipped with lessened protein, which is normal for this time of year. Current situation shows the shire is starting to dry off and available pasture grass is slowly becoming scarce with most properties now feeding protein/urea based mixes. Around the coastal areas of the Bowen district, there are pastures of reasonable quantity & quality. The rest of the district has very patchy amounts of very low quality pasture, with some properties nearly denuded of grass. Dairies are irrigating Rye grass and these are the only areas showing any green colour.

West Region: In the Northwest areas around Mt Isa, Cloncurry, Julia Creek, Richmond and Hughenden districts no significant rainfalls were recorded during the month. As a result, pastures across the area continue to deteriorate rapidly. Producers across these areas continue to reduce stock numbers by selling and/or sending stock to agistment, however, suitable agistment is proving difficult to secure. Around the Boulia, Winton, Longreach and Blackall stock districts rainfall has been well below the median. Producers are lightening off stock numbers to take advantage of the current high sheep values and sales of cattle as their values slide. The area of Longreach - Winton - Boulia is deteriorating rapidly as pastures suffer from lack of moisture. Kangaroos are impacting very severely on the amount of available pastures. Provision of supplements will assist to maintain condition of stock. The rainfall figures in the Charleville, Cunnamulla and Quilpie stock districts again show a picture of being below median falls. As a result of not receiving substantial flows in the channels, this western country is extremely dry with destocking being the favoured drought management strategy.

Central Region: Although stock have wintered relatively well up until now, the effects of winter are starting to show throughout many paddocks. In the Banana shire, some stock are starting to slip in condition, but on the whole cattle are in reasonable condition for this time of the year. It must be noted though, that the majority of cattle producers have lightened off stock numbers dramatically and are engaging in supplementary feeding. In the Springsure district, cattle are generally in fair to good condition for this time of year with most producers taking steps to lighten stock numbers in response to continuing dry weather. There is considerable variation in the quantity of available pasture across the district, although most areas have sufficient feed for the short to medium term. There are some properties in areas to the west of Springsure that are already suffering a severe shortage of feed. Any beneficial fall of rain from now on will see a rapid response in pastures. Most pastures have been frost affected during the month and have dried out considerably.

South-East Region: In most areas, frosts and colder weather are starting to take their toll causing loss of condition in stock. Any herds with early calving will experience difficulty as breeders have little condition. Agistment is no longer available in the region as all options have been taken up months ago. Stockowners are continuing to reduce stock numbers at sales in anticipation of the dry season continuing. The greater majority of producers are now feeding stock supplements and licks. There have been significant movements of hay in all areas although it is in very short supply an expensive. Grain is now being sourced from South Australia. Pastures are variable, ranging from very short to nothing. In most areas dry winds and severe frosts have reduced the quality and quantity of pastures considerably. Significant rainfall would be needed to improve the condition of pastures.

South Region: Stock condition varies throughout the region with the western zone and Border Rivers area being the worst impacted. Reduction in stocking rates has reduced the need to feed although where destocking has not occurred, supplementary feeding is likely to increase to maintain body condition. The majority of the region has experienced low pasture growth over the summer and due to below average rainfall, over the cooler months, there has been no appreciable winter herbage growth. The quality of the pasture has declined with severe and regular frosts. There is a concern that fodder is becoming expensive and difficult to obtain. There are parts of Balonne, Inglewood, Wambo, Stanthorpe, Warwick, Waggamba and Chinchilla shires that are experiencing water shortages.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE

North Region: In all districts the lack of rainfall is having some impact on crops and is placing an increased pressure on low irrigation supplies. The potato planting season has generally finished on the Atherton Tablelands and all reports indicate crops are growing well. In the Wet Tropics the cold weather has caused some damage to the quality of bananas. Low yields have resulted from hot weather early in the year. The dry weather has been ideal for Paw Paw, trees that are currently producing well. Harvesting of all vegetable crops (capsicum, tomatoes, sweet corn, chilli, cucurbits, melons and pumpkins) continues in the Bowen district. Sugarcane harvesting has commenced in all districts. In the wet tropics the cane crop is looking good with rain being received on a regular basis and is expected to deliver high yields and CCS. In the Mareeba district dry weather has had an impact on the cane, but the CCS and yields have started to improve from earlier figures.

Central Region: Dry conditions in the Dawson and Callide valleys has meant that the large area of winter crop planted has had to rely on subsoil moisture for survival. Localised frosts occurred during the month, although most of the June planted crops have not been affected. There have been small areas of wheat planted in April that have been hit hard, with large parts of these crops now being cut for hay due to frost damage. Yield potential for June planted crops will continue to decline until rainfall is received. A large proportion of crops will not be harvested if further rainfall is not received. The next few weeks will be a critical time for these crops, although the outlook suggests that the required rainfall needed will be below average.

South-East Region: Very few winter crops have been planted. Of those that have been planted many have died off already and will not produce anything. The great majority of producers will now have to wait until an early break in the season and concentrate on a summer crop. In the Gatton district lucerne production has been reduced by the dry conditions. All crops in the region will fall well below their yield potential with the adverse conditions. In the Gatton district, dry conditions have meant that extra irrigation has been required for horticultural crops. Tree crops in the district have been severely affected by frosts. In the Bundaberg district tomatoes, capsicums, zucchinis, squash, capsicums and eggfruit are currently being grown. The Nambour district is very dry with tree crops in the area having suffered extreme summer heat and below average rainfall. In the Gayndah and Mundubbera districts the citrus harvest is continuing, the outlook is good but there are concerns over lack of water supply for the coming season. The Bundaberg district is suffering badly from the dry conditions and low cane prices. Currently CCS levels are good and the estimated yield will be in the area of 1.9 to 2.1 million tonnes. Many crops now have stools that have died off and growers will have to try and ascertain whether it is best to plough out the crop and replant. In the Maryborough area crop estimates are down although rain received late in the growing season maintained the crop.

South Region: The region as a whole can expect yields vastly below average. Some areas of Roma and Miles districts received useful planting rain for wheat, chickpea and barley crops at the beginning of June but importantly all crops will require rain within the next two weeks to ensure satisfactory yields. The St.George, Dirranbandi and Goondiwindi cropping zones have again missed out on any appreciable rainfall. Winter crop prospects are disappointing in areas, which were cropped in summer. Properties that were fallowed have a far better chance of success due to increased sub soil moisture stored. Apples, grapes and stonefruit are in winter dormancy. Vegetable production has been adversely affected due to limited irrigation water.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 70mm (132) Cairns A/P 11mm (n/a), Malanda 21mm (44), Ingham 3mm (35), Innisfail 67mm (n/a), Townsville 0.0mm (11), Tully 64mm (n/a), Bowen 1mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (5) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 0.2mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (14), Boulia 0.00mm (11), Windorah 0.0mm (17), Cloncurry n/a (0), Mt Isa 0.0mm (9), Longreach 0.0mm (21), Muttaburra n/a (19), Winton 0.0mm (17) and Charleville 1mm (24).

Central Region: Clermont recorded 0.00mm (23), Alpha n/a (25), Springsure 6mm (30), Mackay 5mm (48), Yaamba n/a (34), Biloela A/P 0.0mm (31), Mt Larcom n/a (38), Gladstone 0.0mm (43), and Theodore n/a (37).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded n/a (38), Gayndah 0.0mm (39), Mundubbera n/a (38), Esk n/a (51), Kilkivan 4mm (49), Kingaroy 0.2mm (n/a), Nanango n/a (49), Proston n/a (41), and Beaudesert 5mm (49). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 3mm (49), Maryborough 1mm (59), Nambour 2mm (98) and Tewantin 1mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 0.6mm (43), Dalby 0.0mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 17mm (n/a), Inglewood 2mm (40), Oakey 0.0mm (38), Pittsworth n/a (47), Stanthorpe 2mm (49), Toowoomba A/P 0.2mm (n/a), Warwick 2mm (n/a), Roma 8mm (n/a), Miles 0.2mm (n/a), St George A/P 8mm (n/a) and Taroom 0.8mm (58).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface waters away from the major watercourses are drying quickly with river and creek systems unusually low. Levels for surface water is extremely low and consequently bore supply have been in demand. West Region: Surface water supplies are at critical levels in many on-property storages. Many dams are dry and/or rapidly receding, proving to be a major concern for weak livestock. The lack of surface water will be of concern as the season progresses.

Central Region: There are adequate water supplies in most places except south towards Tambo. Surface water across the district would be described as adequate and most properties will see their way clear to an early summer break. North Eastern Bauhinia shire is still suffering from shortage of surface water though some temporary relief was received from rainfall in June.

South-East Region: Surface and underground water supplies continue to be stressed due to the dry conditions. It is expected that there will be water problems in all areas as dams dry and bores drop in quantity and quality. Major irrigation dams in the North Burnett, Gatton and Laidley areas are still showing low levels of storage.

South Region: Streamflow totals were well below average throughout the Condamine River catchment. In the Balonne River upstream of Beardmore Dam, there was no flow at the Weribone gauging station. Downstream of St George the lower Balonne tributaries did not flow as there were no releases from Beardmore Dam. The continuing poor season in the Border Rivers is reflected in flow volumes for June.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.