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07 Aug 2008

Based on the recent pattern of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over May and June, the probability of receiving or getting above median rainfall for most of Queensland for June to September still remains low. The only exception to these low rainfall probabilities is in one area of the north west of the state where the probability of receiving above median rainfall is between 60-70%. Currently there is only a 10- 30% chance of receiving or getting above the long term median rainfall for July to September for the remainder of the state. The monthly value of the SOI over May and June was -13.8 and at the end of June was -6.8. Based on this shift in the value of the SOI over May and June, the SOI is now in a "Consistently Negative" phase. It is essential to remember that when dealing with probabilities to also consider the additional information that probabilities provide. For example, based on the recent pattern of the SOI there is only a 9% chance of getting the long term July to September median rainfall of 96 mm at Kingaroy. Therefore there is a 91% chance of not getting the June to September median rainfall. Another way of looking at this is that in approximately one tenth of years (approximately 1 year out of 10) with the current SOI pattern has Kingaroy received its long term median July to September rainfall. Therefore in around nine tenths of years (9 years out of 10) with the current SOI pattern below median rainfall has been recorded at Kingaroy for July to September. For more climate related information contact the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23. Alternatively try the DPI's climate web site www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate on which the "Climate Note" can be found. The climate note contains more detailed information including rainfall probability maps, SST information etc. A recorded message with the 30 day average of the SOI is also available on 46881439.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Dry conditions persist throughout the State with very little significant rainfall recorded. The exception being in the Central district where above average rainfall was recorded in coastal, near coastal and southern parts of the region early in June, and in the Bundaberg area where greater than average rainfall was received. Stock condition is variable across most of the State with supplementation feeding taking place as pastures continue to decline. Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Rural Communities declared the shires of Kolan, Nebo, Paroo, Peak Downs and Perry under State drought processes. These declarations represents 13.4% of the land area of the State. There are also 498 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 40 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: It has been a dry month in most stock districts with very little worthwhile rain recorded. Fodder supplies have reduced dramatically in both quality and quantity with stock condition starting to deteriorate. Water supplies are still holding although a few properties are experiencing problems due to low runoff rains in some areas. The region appears destined for a long dry spell that will impact on the breeders, as the cold weather, frosts and the lack of available pasture protein takes effect.

West Region: Frosts at the end of month have impacted severely on standing pastures, resulting in an increased rate of deterioration on an already poor pasture stand. In areas that have adequate pasture bulk, supplementary feeding is providing livestock with much needed protein for maintenance. On properties where sufficient pasture bulk is not adequate to support a supplementation program owners are starting to destock. Water supplies are a major concern across the region with many on-property storages dry or rapidly receding. Rainfall is still well below the median expectations for this period. IDP applications continue to increase in most districts with the Paroo shire recently drought declared for the first time in ten years.

Central Region: Above average rainfall was recorded in coastal, near coastal and southern parts of the region early in June that relieved the dry conditions in those areas. Little rainfall was received in the north western areas of the region. Stock condition is variable, largely reflecting where rain has or has not fallen. Pasture has responded well in the areas that received reasonable falls but cold conditions at the end of the month will result in haying off. The rainfall has allowed planting of winter crops to occur although it did interrupt some harvesting operations. Areas that missed out on the rainfall continue to struggle.

South-East Region: Severe frosts have typified the climate pattern for the month across the South-East. Bundaberg has received greater than their average rainfall and this has been welcomed, in comparison to centres like Boonah and Beaudesert that have received little on no rainfall. Grazing areas have now dried off significantly and it will be a long winter for livestock. Production in coastal horticulture and cane is being seriously affected by lack of irrigation water supplies and the dry conditions. Water supplies from the Fassifern valley through to Maryborough Bundaberg and the north Burnett are all low.

South Region: Rainfall during June was below average for the Border Rivers area. Winter planting has occurred within the Roma, Miles and Taroom districts and areas towards the east. Widespread destocking via saleyards and feedlots continues as the availability and quality of pasture is still declining. This is in response to limited pasture availability and a belief that a dry winter is likely. The Balonne shire has experienced an increase in the number of IDP's approved. The Dalby and Chinchilla areas have received only limited falls.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Stock condition remains fair to good at this stage but will collapse fairly rapidly with the onset of the warmer weather. Drought feeding is continuing in the worst affected areas and producers are selling excess stock to conserve what pasture is left. Stock in the western areas are slipping as feed quality deteriorates. In the Georgetown and Normanton stock districts, pasture quality and quantity is average for this time of the year although there is ample dry feed available on most properties. Pasture quality is said to be better in some Gulf districts due to a shorter wet season. In the Charters Towers region pasture quality has slipped with he onset of the cooler months and quantity is moderate for this time of the year. Protein levels of feed seem to be limited with many properties opting to enhance performance by feeding protein/urea based supplements.

West Region: Pastures across the region continue to deteriorate rapidly. Frosts at the end of month have impacted severely on standing pastures, resulting in an increased rate of deterioration on an already poor pasture stand. In areas that have adequate pasture bulk, supplementary feeding is providing livestock with much needed protein for maintenance. Producers in the area continue to reduce their stock numbers through selling and/or agistment, however, suitable agistment is proving difficult to secure. The areas of Longreach, Winton and Boulia are deteriorating rapidly as pastures suffer from lack of moisture. The areas of Isisford, Longreach, Barcaldine, Blackall, Tambo, Augathella and Charleville have a reasonable body of pasture. Provision of supplements will assist in maintaining the condition of stock. Areas surrounding Quilpie and Windorah are continuing to struggle, with a regular flow of IDP applications. The impact from receiving minimal flows in the channels throughout the western country has resulted in extremely dry conditions with many producers opting to destock as part of their management process.

Central Region: Stock condition is still variable over the region. In the dry parts stock continue to hold condition at best. Where the rain has fallen there is only green pick and cattle have fallen off in condition. Once the pasture dries off there should be an improvement in stock condition. Where the rain fell, the country has responded well, particularly with both native and improved pastures responding to the warm weather following the ran. The central region was fortunate enough to receive some really useful unseasonal rain in about half of the region. Buffel grass has grown particularly well and seed head have been evident. As always, the lightly stocked country has done the best. Elsewhere the pasture is declining in quality as the dry conditions continue.

South-East Region: In most areas stock are starting to loose condition which can be attributed to the frosts and colder weather. With little agistment available in the region stockowners are continuing to reduce stock numbers at sales in anticipation of the dry season continuing. The great majority of producers are now feeding stock supplements and licks with the further likelihood that molasses will be in short supply. Pastures are variable, ranging from very short to adequate depending upon rainfall. In most areas dry winds and frosts have reduced the quality and quantity of pastures considerably. Significant rainfall or prolonged winter rainfall would be needed to improve the condition of pastures.

South Region: Variable stock conditions are still persistent in the south region, with stock on the Western Downs and Balonne shire showing no improvement from last month. The condition of paddock fed stock is likely to decrease over the next few months, as the availability and quality of feed diminish. This has contributed to an increase in destocking rates with large numbers of cattle being moved off properties to feedlots and saleyards. The majority of the region experienced low pasture growth over the summer relative to historical records. Due to below average rainfall over the cooler months, there has been no appreciable winter herbage growth. The quality of the pasture as the cooler period approaches is declining. It is expected that frosts will increase in number and severity causing further deterioration.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE

North Region: With the majority of the usable streams in the Herbert Valley dry except for the major supplies, sugar cane in the Ingham district is showing water stress, with some of the plant cane not coming up as it should. The Bowen dry tropics are currently harvesting good yields of tomatoes, capsicum, sweet corn, beans and melons. This can be attributed to rainfalls of between 30 - 90 mm across the Bowen district. Harvesting of tobacco in the Mareeba Dimbulah irrigation area has commenced with low incidence of pest and disease giving good yields to date. Harvesting of peanuts and maize is near completion with the exception of a few late crops. The dry conditions have been ideal for paw paw trees, which are currently producing well.

Central Region: Useful rains fell in the southern highlands during early June, building upon good falls recorded in the last days of May. Areas south and east of Emerald received a total for the two week period of around 60-70mm. This has meant that growers in this area were able to confidently sow wheat and chickpea crops. Most country available for wheat in the southern highlands has now been planted and with shorter maturity varieties in order to cope with the moderately late time of sowing. These crops at the moment are establishing well and will have good yield potential if further rain falls during July. If good rains fall during September/October, there is a huge area in the northern highlands that will probably all go under sorghum as most growers in this area missed 4-6 consecutive cropping windows due to a complete lack of rain. Crushing has begun in Mackay and Proserpine, and will begin shortly in the Plane Ck mill area. The crop has been cutting slightly above estimate at this stage. Overall the winter cropping outlook has improved with the rainfall received at the start of June.

South-East Region: Yields from all summer crops in the region have been variable with the great majority of crops showing poor results after the dry season. Recent rain in the region may allow some growers to plant winter crops but the planting window for many crops is almost finished. In the North Burnett sorghum crops have been affected by the dry conditions with low yields. In the Gatton district lucerne production has been reduced by the dry conditions and supply is short with prices high. All crops in the region will be well below their yield potential with the adverse conditions. In the Gayndah/Mundubbera district the citrus harvest is continuing. The outlook for the citrus harvest is good but is clouded by concerns over lack of water supply for the coming season. The Bundaberg district is suffering badly from the dry conditions and low cane prices. Water allocations are the lowest ever and many cane growers may sell their water allocation to those growing higher value crops. If present seasonal conditions continue it is possible that some blocks of cane will not be harvested this year. Current crop forecasts for the coming season are markedly lower than in previous years.

South Region: Roma and Miles districts received useful planting rain for wheat and barley at the beginning of June. Taroom had excellent falls of up to 65mm, which provided a good soil moisture profile for wheat and April sown forage oats. The St. George, Dirranbandi and Goondiwindi cropping zone again missed out on any appreciable rainfall. Winter crop prospects are disappointing in areas that previously summer cropped. Those properties that were fallowed will have a far better chance of success due to increased sub soil moisture stored. The apples, grapes and stonefruit are in winter dormancy. Vegetable production has been adversely affected due to limited irrigation water.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 14mm (208) Cairns A/P 2mm (n/a), Malanda 23mm (62), Ingham 11mm (43), Innisfail 29mm (n/a), Townsville 16mm (20), Tully 100mm (n/a), Bowen 36mm (n/a), Charters Towers 4mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (6) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (8), Boulia 0.00mm (7), Windorah 0.0mm (12), Cloncurry n/a (0), Mt Isa 0.0mm (3), Longreach 0.2mm (13), Muttaburra 8 (13), Winton 0.0mm (11) and Charleville 6mm (19).

Central Region: Clermont recorded 4mm (24), Alpha 3mm (23), Springsure 46mm (24), Mackay 79mm (64), Yaamba 169mm (38), Proserpine A/P 71mm (n/a), Biloela A/P 80mm (31), Mt Larcom 114mm (36), Gladstone 144mm (35), and Theodore 76mm (28).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 76mm (38), Gayndah 67mm (30), Mundubbera 75mm (31), Esk 55mm (51), Kilkivan 52mm (40), Kingaroy 37mm (n/a), Nanango 54mm (34), Proston 46mm (31), and Beaudesert n/a (49). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 203mm (54), Maryborough 153mm (64), Nambour 81mm (95) and Tewantin 101mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 47mm (32), Dalby 60mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 14mm (n/a), Inglewood 22mm (28), Oakey 50mm (33), Pittsworth 49mm (37), Stanthorpe 39mm (39), Toowoomba A/P 53mm (n/a), Warwick 44mm (n/a), Roma 44mm (n/a), Miles 81mm (n/a), St George A/P 9mm (n/a) and Taroom 65mm (29).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: All water supplies continue to hold adequate levels although the surface water on some properties is at critical levels. Areas around Mt. Coolon are experiencing surface water shortages, but generally streams and dams are holding up well.

West Region: Rainfall has been well below the median across the western region. On property storages continue to recede and are now a major concern for affected producers. The lack of surface water will prove to be a real problem as the season progresses.

Central Region: Most centres received well above average rainfall however there were still some areas in the region that had below average rainfall for the month. Most streamflows were well below average during June with the exception of the Pioneer and Mackenzie rivers.

South-East Region: Major irrigation dams in the North Burnett are still at low levels as are dams in the Gatton and Laidley area. Bores in the Gatton region are variable in levels. Allocations for irrigation from Fred Haigh dam are at their lowest levels and Cedar Pocket dam is now empty.

South Region: Recorded rainfalls in the region ranged from 10-25mm in the Border Rivers area and between 30-65mm in the remainder. In the Balonne River upstream of Beardmore Dam, stream levels receded to zero flow by the middle of the month. Down stream of St. George the only flow was as a result of releases from Beardmore Dam during the first half of the month.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.