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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell from +7.1 at the end of February to -5.6 at the end of March. Based on this shift in the monthly value of the SOI over the February/March period, the SOI is now in a 'Rapidly Falling' phase. Due to the downturn in the SOI over the last month the probability of receiving median rainfall for the April to June period remains low across much of the south, south-east, west, central and north Queensland. For the far south west and far north west regions of Queensland, the probability of receiving median rainfall for April to June is marginally higher. There is evidence that the impetus for an El Niņo event later this year continues to strengthen. Much of this evidence is based on the sub-surface sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

More definitive information will not be available until later in autumn due to variability that exists in equatorial patterns over the next few months. It is worth remembering that in Queensland a 'classic' El Niņo event is not needed to reduce rainfall. A warmer than normal sea surface temperature pattern in the central equatorial Pacific in coexistence with a negative SOI pattern can form and negatively influence our rainfall patterns without an El Niņo event in existence.

Current advice is to closely monitor information on SOI trends and sea surface temperature patterns. A dramatic drop in SOI values between March and May would further substantiate the potential for reduced rainfall in many districts later in the year.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Seasonal conditions throughout the state remain patchy with rain continuing to deliver good benefits to those lucky enough to be under storms, while in other areas the wait for rain continues. Some good totals were recorded in southern areas this month, particularly in the Warwick and Stanthorpe districts. This rainfall relieved the dry conditions and promoted pasture response. In the far south west, many producers have undertaken destocking and moving stock to agistment.

As at 31 March 2002, there are 24 shires and 1 part shire drought declared under State drought processes. The area declared represents 6.13% of the land area of the state. There are also 432 Individually Drought Declared Properties (IDPs) in a further 38 shires. There is also 1 Individual Disaster Stricken Property (IDSP) in the Calliope Shire.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region:

Good rainfall occurred during the early part of the month in the Townsville district, but warm weather and winds prevailed over the latter stages. Mareeba district received below average rainfall with only a weak monsoonal season and no cyclones affecting the district. Very little rain was received over the Georgetown and Bowen districts, with Normanton district receiving patchy storm rain. Burketown area received more widespread rain and this has assisted conditions around the far north west of the district. Charters Towers district experienced a mixed season with some heavy rain received in the north.

West Region:

Following patchy storm rain from February, rain during March was well below the median for all areas. This is resulting in a rapid deterioration of pasture. However, Murweh Shire conditions have improved and some IDPs have been revoked.

Central Region:

Rain has been below average across the region over summer. As conditions begin to cool, pasture growth potential will reduce even if rain is forthcoming. Unless significant rain occurs, IDPs are expected to increase in the region. The Local Drought Committees are meeting to discuss the continued deterioration of conditions.

South-East Region:

Hot dry conditions and erratic rain was experienced across the region. Broadacre, cane and horticulture crop yields have been badly affected by the conditions. Grazing areas that have received rain have improved, however further rain with runoff is required to alleviate the dry conditions.

South Region:

Rainfall up to 100mm was recorded in the eastern parts of the region however most of the region received significantly less. Hot dry conditions affected crop production especially in areas of low soil moisture. The pasture growing season is closing, with some areas in the mid and far west affected by the dry summer.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region:

The Bowen district is deteriorating, with pastures drying off and being utilised without the usual growth at this time of the year. Generally, livestock are in very good to strong condition. Mareeba district pasture is good with enough rain to produce a good cover of grass. However, during the last week of March pasture has visibly dried off. Generally livestock are good to excellent. Pasture quality and quantity are very good throughout the Townsville district. Livestock condition is generally excellent throughout the district. In the Normanton district, stock are in good condition but an early start to the dry season and a lack of sufficient pasture quantity may cause a decline in stock condition. In the Charters Towers district, stock generally remain in strong condition in most areas.

West Region:

In the north west, rain for March was well below the median for all areas producing rapid deterioration of pasture. However, stock condition is holding quite well. Conditions south of the Northern Railway line are extremely dry. Producers across the area are reducing stock numbers by selling and/or agistment. The Longreach, Winton and Boulia areas missed out on summer rain and therefore pastures are deteriorating. Isisford, Barcaldine, Blackall, Tambo, Augathella and Charlville areas still have some green pasture following rains during early March / late February. In the south west it is extremely dry, consequently many of the properties are on the verge of being fully destocked.

Central Region:

As a result of below average summer rainfall, livestock and pasture condition continue to decline in most areas. However, pasture is reported to be excellent where the storms fell. In Banana and Calliope Shires, the stock are generally in good condition. Across the region, those paddocks with high stocking rates show many areas of bare ground as pastures have hayed off. In the Duaringa, Fitzroy, Livingstone, Mount Morgan and Rockhampton Shires pasture conditions range from excellent to satisfactory where storms have been but in other areas poor to bare. Livestock condition varies from fat to poor.

South-East Region:

Pastures remain variable, ranging from very short to adequate depending on rainfall. In some districts the hot conditions experienced early in the year has caused pastures to die back and will require significant rain to regenerate prior to winter. Generally, stock are holding condition but this will not stabilise unless significant rainfall is received.

South Region:

Good pasture growth has occurred in the eastern areas in response to the recent rain. The quality of pasture is variable across the region with eastern areas excellent and some western areas inadequate for this time of year. Stock condition varies according to the amount of summer rain. Stock within the Balonne shire are generally in poorer condition.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region:

Less than average rain was recorded in the region for March, following a relatively dry summer period. Parts of the Burdekin region experienced hot conditions early in the month, placing extra demands on groundwater supplies from cane crops. Ground preparation is underway for most small crops in the Bowen and Burdekin districts, with a number of growers having well established crops. Winter fruit and vegetable crop prospects look good given ideal growing conditions, however some early pest problems have been reported.

Central Region:

March was another dry month in the Dawson-Callide area and irrigation water in the Callide is becoming scarce. Significant rainfall is needed within the next 6-8 weeks for there to be a winter crop for most growers in the area. No significant rain fell anywhere in the Central Highlands during March. Sorghum crops in the southern highlands are being harvested or are close to harvest, with good yields recorded given the extremely hot and dry conditions. Sunflower and corn crops in the southern highlands are now suffering severe moisture stress. The area between Gindie and Clermont remains dry, with virtually no crops planted and generally very poor prospects for the 2002 winter crop.

South-East Region:

Early planted crops have generally suffered big yield losses due to little rain and hot conditions. In the Burnett, corn crops have been cut for silage. Early harvested peanut crops in most areas are showing poor yields. Hot conditions have placed extra demand on irrigation supplies in the Gatton district. In the Nambour district the lychee and stone fruit harvest has finished with average yields. The cane crop in the Bundaberg and Childers area continues to suffer from dry conditions with increased demand on irrigation needed to keep crops going. In the Maryborough district the cane crop has received some useful but patchy rain that has maintained the potential for good yields.

South Region:

Hot conditions over summer have diminished potential yields in crops across the region. Good yields were reported on the eastern Downs, in many sorghum, maize and navy bean crops. Producers in the western Downs have experienced a number of failed cropping seasons. Cotton production has been affected because of the irrigation shortages around St George and Dirranbandi. Winter crop prospects are low over wide areas because of low soil moisture.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region:

Babinda received 355mm (816) Cairns A/P 65mm (449), Malanda 117mm (347), Ingham 117mm (454), Innisfail 255mm (n/a), Townsville 49mm (176), Tully 231mm (n/a), Bowen 2mm (n/a), Charters Towers 17mm (n/a), Georgetown 57mm (140) and Normanton A/P 64mm (n/a).

West Region:

Birdsville A/P 3mm (n/a), Boulia 0mm (35), Windorah 0mm (32), Cloncurry 19mm (62), Mt Isa 13mm (65), Longreach 1mm (65), Muttaburra 26mm (64), Winton 2mm (51) and Charleville 0mm (59).

Central Region:

Clermont recorded 10mm (75), Alpha 22mm (70), Springsure 46mm (69), Mackay 39mm (312), Yaamba 52mm (117), Proserpine A/P 46mm (n/a), Biloela A/P 9mm (52), Mt Larcom 13mm (109), Gladstone 53mm (104), and Theodore 58mm (46).

South-East Region:

Eidsvold recorded 8mm (71), Gayndah 37mm (59), Mundubbera 50mm (56), Esk 44mm (87), Kilkivan 12mm (85), Kingaroy 25mm (n/a), Nanango 48mm (74), Proston 19mm (68), and Beaudesert 1mm (100). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 55mm (127), Maryborough 113mm (134), Nambour 106mm (215) and Tewantin 151mm (n/a).

South Region:

Clifton 77mm (73), Dalby 106mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 110mm (n/a), Inglewood 41mm (59), Oakey 87mm (52), Pittsworth 70mm (69), Stanthorpe 90mm (76), Toowoomba A/P 159mm (n/a), Warwick 98mm (n/a), Roma 1mm (n/a), Miles 99mm (n/a), St George A/P 7mm (n/a) and Taroom 38mm (64).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES:

North Region:

There is surface water available on most properties, however good rainfall is still needed to put sufficient water into dams and watercourses to last the dry season. Some properties in the Mareeba district are already facing water shortages.

West Region:

Although some rivers had a flow, property shortages continue and a lack of surface water will be a problem later in the season.

Central Region:

With the exception of the Dawson, all streamflows in the region were well below average for March. Theresa Creek catchment had no flow for the month.

South-East Region:

Major irrigation dams in the North Burnett are still at low levels as are dams in the Gatton/Laidley area and the Moogerah Dam at Boonah. Farm dam supplies vary but in general more rain is needed to replenish levels.

South Region:

Surface water for livestock remains low with minimal runoff from recent rain. Decreased demand on irrigation supplies has contributed to water levels stabilising and in some areas rising, but generally supplies remain low.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.