Home

Back

page regenerated:
07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK: Based on the recent pattern of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over April and May, the probability of above median rainfall across much of Queensland for June to August continues to remain relatively low. Currently there is only a 20-50% probability of receiving median rainfall for June to August for most of the south, south east, west and coastal regions of the state. Across central and north Queensland the probability of receiving the long term median rainfall for June to August varies between 30-70% depending on location. The monthly value of the SOI at the end of April was -3.4 and at the end of May was -13.8. Based on this shift in the monthly value of the SOI over April and May the SOI is now in a "Rapidly Falling" Phase. The outlook for later this year (eg. August to October) will depend on just how the currently changing ENSO pattern continues to develop. If the SOI stays deeply negative from now on then we would expect comparatively low rainfall probability values to extend throughout eastern Australia. It is essential to remember that when dealing with probabilities to also consider the additional information that probabilities provide. For example, based on the recent pattern of the SOI there is only a 38% chance of getting the long term June to August median rainfall of 85 mm at Roma. Therefore there is a 62% chance of not getting the June to August median rainfall. Another way of looking at this is that in approximately one third of years (approximately 3 to 4 years out of 10) with the current SOI pattern has Roma received its long term median June to August rainfall. Therefore in around two thirds of years (6-7 years out of 10) with the current SOI pattern below median rainfall has been recorded at Roma for June to August.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Dry conditions have continued generally throughout the State with some light frosts being recorded. Most regions have recorded below average rainfall and stock and pasture conditions continue to decline as winter approaches. Winter cropping prospects have been poor. However, there have been reports of significant falls of rain in some areas in the first week of June which may influence producers to plant. This will be highlighted in next month's report. On 22 May 2002, following recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Rural Communities declared the shires of Duaringa, Fitzroy, Livingstone, Mt Morgan and Rockhampton under State drought processes. The area declared represents 8.19% of the land area of the State. There are also 553 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 44 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: It has been a dry month in the region with some light frosts resulting in minor damage to some crops such as tobacco, vegetables, mangoes and peanuts. Cane, peanuts and maize are being harvested. Abattoirs and export outlets are busy and due to the low rainfall in the wet season, supply is exceeding demand on the slaughter market, with most works booked out until the end of June.

West Region: Rainfall has been very much below median expectations for the month but no frosts have been reported and no spoiling rains have impacted on standing pastures. However, deterioration continues to be the trend across the region and available pasture bulk has been reduced in quantity and quality. Supplementary feeding of stock is taking place in those areas where there is adequate pasture bulk. Water supplies are a concern and many on-property storages are dry or rapidly receding.

Central Region: Rainfall during May was in the average range for most of the region. Stock and pasture condition continue to decline. Winter cropping prospects remain poor in the northern Central Highlands. The planting window for chickpeas has closed and the window for wheat in Central Queensland is rapidly closing. Graingrowers in the Capella area and canegrowers south of Sarina have been severely affected by the current dry conditions.

South-East Region: Frosts, dry conditions and below average rainfall in most of the area have typified the climate pattern for the month. Some centres have received their average rainfall but it has been patchy and not widespread. Yields of broadacre crops have been badly affected by the dry conditions and grazing areas have now dried off significantly. Production in coastal horticulture and cane is being seriously affected by lack of irrigation water supplies and the dry conditions. Water supplies from the Fassifern Valley through to Maryborough, Bundaberg and the North Burnett are all low.

South Region: Rainfall during May was below average for most areas and the bulk of the region has been affected by many months of dry weather. As a consequence, there has been little opportunity to plant in the western areas and the optimum planting time has passed. Some producers are resorting to a deep sowing technique in an attempt to find moisture. There has been widespread destocking via saleyards and feedlots in response to limited pasture availability and a belief by many producers that a dry winter is likely.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Stock are holding condition in the Charters Towers Stock District, however, wet cows are sliding quickly with pasture protein levels low and their nutrition demands high. There is a reasonable body of feed available in the Townsville Stock District with stock condition scores to 3.5. Pastures in western areas of Malanda District are dry, but plentiful, and dry lick supplementary feeding is common. The Tablelands remain green with cattle still generally in good condition. Livestock are in very good to light store condition in the Bowen Stock District but deteriorating slowly as drought feeding gains momentum in the Bowen/Burdekin area. Stock are in good to reasonable condition in the Gulf and Peninsula Stock Districts.

West Region: In the North West, pastures are deteriorating rapidly. A major concern for weak livestock is that water supplies are now at critical levels in many on-property storages and many dams are dry and/or rapidly receding. Producers are continuing to reduce stock numbers by selling and/or agistment. Stock numbers are being lightened off in the Central West to take advantage of current high sheep values and sales of cattle continue as their values begin to slide. The area of Longreach, Boulia, Winton is deteriorating rapidly as pastures suffer from lack of moisture but generally the areas of Isisford, Longreach, Barcaldine and Blackall, Tambo, Augathella, Charleville have a reasonable body of pasture. The far southern end of the Isisford Shire is in very poor condition. As a result of not receiving substantial flows in the channels the south western country is extremely dry and many of these properties are on the verge of being fully destocked. The Paroo and Bulloo shires continue to deteriorate.

Central Region: There are still some fat cattle around, however this is balanced out by others at the lower end of the scale. There are some losses occurring, particularly in the Rockhampton Stock District and there are a number of condition score 1 and 2 cattle. In other areas, cattle are described as around average, or reasonable considering the pasture quality and the time of the year. The quantity of pasture available varies from non-existent to reasonable, while the quality is low for the most part.

South-East Region: In most areas stock are maintaining condition despite the dry season. Some stockowners are reducing stock numbers at sales in anticipation of a dry season and stock prices have dropped but have not reached low levels. Pastures are variable, ranging from very short to adequate depending upon rainfall. In most areas dry winds and hotter than average temperatures have dried pastures off and most grasses are taking on the appearance of late winter pasture.

South Region: Stock condition is variable, with animals on the western Downs and Balonne Shire worse. Large stock numbers have been moved off properties to feedlots and saleyards. The majority of the region experienced low pasture growth over the summer and the quality is declining as the cooler period approaches. Frosts will cause further deterioration.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE

North Region: In the Bowen district there has been early harvesting of tomatoes, capsicum, sweet corn and beans. Peanut and maize crops are being harvested on the Tablelands. Early season peanuts are of high quality but the later season crop is more variable. The maize quality has been good, but yields have been variable due to the dry weather. Tobacco has been planted on the Tablelands and there have been small plantings of navy beans. Sugar is being harvested with yields and CCS levels down.

Central Region:. May was dry in most parts of the Callide and Dawson valleys, with the exception of some reasonable falls in the last few days of the month. There are only small areas of both dryland wheat and forage oats and of irrigated crops such as wheat, chickpeas and forage oats planted in the region. There have been some reasonable sorghum yields reported but total tonnage will be much lower than normal due to the reduced area planted. Good general rain fell late in the month through the central and southern Central Highlands, but had variable impact. Plenty of wheat will get sown south of Emerald but will require follow-up rain in short order to enable root development and reasonable yield potential. Chickpeas had already been planted in the southern Highlands and these crops will now be almost assured of producing profitable yields, but only those growers who practice zero-till and have machinery capable of deep planting were able to create this opportunity. Soil profiles are dry in the shires of Emerald, Peak Downs and Nebo/Broadsound and will require at least 100mm of low-intensity rainfall to present even a marginal planting opportunity. Grain sorghum crops in the southern Highlands have suffered due to wind and rain.

South-East Region: Yields from all crops in the region have been variable with the great majority showing poor results after the dry season. Many peanut crops will barely cover production costs, soybean yields have been low and corn will not be harvested until later in the season. However, some sorghum crops will still yield well and provide returns for growers. Lucerne production in the Gatton district has been reduced by the dry conditions and supply is short with prices high. Tomatoes, capsicums, zucchinis, squash, capsicums and eggfruit are currently being grown in the Bundaberg district but water allocations are at a critical level. Tree crops such as avocadoes are now being harvested with the possibility of small fruit and fruit drop due to dry conditions. The situation with avocadoes is similar in the Nambour district and other tree crops such as persimmons and late mangoes have been attacked badly by birds this year. Strawberry growers have finished planting but many have already used a large proportion of their water supply which will significantly affect their production capabilities. Imperial mandarins are now being picked in the Gayndah/Mundubbera district. Current cane crop forecasts for the coming season are markedly lower than in previous years.

South Region: Up until the end of May there was insufficient rain to plant winter crops. To exacerbate this situation, sub soil moisture levels are poor in most areas. Winter crop prospects appear disappointing for those areas that planted summer crops with properties that were fallowed having far better chances of success with greater sub soil moisture stored. Vegetable production has been adversely affected due to limited irrigation water. Apples, grapes and stonefruit are in winter dormancy.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 398mm (427) Cairns A/P 65mm (107), Malanda 126mm (118), Ingham 33mm (126), Innisfail 310mm (n/a), Townsville 19mm (40), Tully 365mm (n/a), Bowen 1mm (n/a), Charters Towers 10mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (10) and Normanton A/P 0.2mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P 3mm (n/a), Boulia 2mm (14), Windorah 2mm (23), Cloncurry n/a (13), Mt Isa 0.0mm (17), Longreach 0.0mm (29), Muttaburra n/a (22), Winton 0.0mm (23) and Charleville 0.0mm (41).

Central Region: Clermont recorded 34mm (47), Alpha 18mm (40), Springsure 101mm (47), Mackay 129mm (115), Yaamba 3mm (63), Proserpine A/P 50mm (n/a), Biloela A/P 37mm (43), Mt Larcom 23mm (63), Gladstone 18mm (70), and Theodore 28mm (47).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 17mm (44), Gayndah 63mm (41), Mundubbera 42mm (40), Esk 26mm (59), Kilkivan 13mm (49), Kingaroy 15mm (n/a), Nanango 16mm (48), Proston 16mm (45), and Beaudesert 1mm (76). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 41mm (69), Maryborough 87mm (78), Nambour 128mm (139) and Tewantin 156mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 16mm (48), Dalby 6mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 5mm (n/a), Inglewood 5mm (43), Oakey 9mm (45), Pittsworth 11mm (44), Stanthorpe 28mm (59), Toowoomba A/P 8mm (n/a), Warwick 10mm (n/a), Roma 0.4mm (n/a), Miles 22mm (n/a), St George A/P 5mm (n/a) and Taroom 10mm (42).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Water supplies are generally adequate. Underground aquifers in the Bowen/Burdekin Shires are adequate at present but are showing signs of decline.

West Region: On-property storages continue to recede and are now a major concern for affected producers.

Central Region: All streamflows were well below means and medians for May. The flows for the Fitzroy and Pioneer Rivers were well down during May and the coastal catchment Boyne and Calliope Rivers did not flow for the entire month.

South-East Region: Major irrigation dams in the North Burnett, Gatton/.Laidley and Boonah areas are still at low levels. Allocations for irrigation from Fred Haigh Dam are at very low levels. Cedar Pocket Dam at Gympie is empty.

South Region: Parts of Balonne, Inglewood, Stanthorpe, Warwick, Waggamba and Chinchilla Shires are experiencing stock water shortages.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.