SITUATION AS AT 30 NOVEMBER 2002
OUTLOOK:
There has been a very slight improvement in the rainfall outlook for
summer (December to February). While the improvement in rainfall
probabilities for December to February indicates the potential for some
useful relief rain for Queensland, an El Nino sea temperature pattern
still persists in the central Pacific Ocean. Therefore there remains
only a very low chance of getting the well above average rainfall needed
to break the ongoing drought. The monthly value of the Southern
Oscillation Index (SOI) for October was minus 7.6 and for November was
minus 4.1. Based on these monthly values the SOI is in a "Near Zero"
phase. The 30 day average of the SOI as of 2 December is minus 5.5.
Daily updated SOI values are available on (07) 46881439.
Based on the recent SOI pattern, the probability of receiving above the
long term median rainfall for December to February has improved slightly
to between 40-60%. When dealing with probabilities it is important to
consider the additional information provided. For example, based on the
recent pattern of the SOI there is a 40% chance of getting above the
long term December to February median rainfall of 414 mm at Gympie.
Therefore there is a 60% chance of not getting the long term December to
February median rainfall. Another way of looking at this is that in 4
years out of 10 (or less than half) with the current SOI pattern, Gympie
has received its long term median December to February rainfall.
Therefore in 6 years out of 10 with the current SOI pattern (or more
than half), below median rainfall has been recorded at Gympie for
December to February. The recent brief rise in the SOI value during
November may be reflecting some instability in the current El Nino
pattern. Despite this brief shift in SOI value, it is expected that the
El Nino pattern will continue through to at least Autumn 2003.
For more climate related information, contact the DPI Call Centre on 13
25 23. The latest outlook maps are also available on the DPI climate
page www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate
STATE OVERVIEW:
Conditions have generally remained dry across the State. Some isolated
falls in the Rockhampton and Dawson/Callide Valley, and good rain in the
Gulf district, provided some relief but hot conditions have reduced the
effectiveness. The condition of stock varies across the state but most
livestock is in poor condition and cows with calves at foot are under
increasing pressure and falling in condition. The cost of fodder is
high. The summer planting window is open but significant falls of rain
are needed for planting in most areas. During November, following
recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister for
Primary Industries and Rural Communities declared under state drought
processes a part shire declaration for Belyando Shire and also the
remainder of the shire of Quilpie not covered by the 01 September 2002
declaration. There are now 52 shires and 2 part shires drought declared
and the area declared represents approximately 38.1% of the land area of
the state. There are also 689 Individually Drought Declared Properties
(IDPs) in a further 38 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region:
Below average monthly rainfall totals continue to be a feature with the
exception of some good rain in the Gulf districts. Stock condition is
generally deteriorating in line with the season and will continue in
this mode until relieving rain is received. In the extensive areas of
the region cows with young calves are under increasing pressure and are
rapidly falling in condition. Most stockowners are generally involved
in some sort of supplementary feeding program but the price of fodder
and its availability is limiting their options. Severe water
restrictions are in place on the Tablelands around the Ravenshoe area
with the major creeks and rivers ceasing to flow. The cane crush
generally finished this month with most mills finishing ahead of
schedule due to minimal wet weather delays. Overall, yields and CCS
were generally good. In the Dry Tropics, the vegetable growing season
has finished with good production recorded of most crops.
West Region:
No effective rainfall was recorded during the month and IDP applications
continue to increase. Areas outside the declared areas continue to
deteriorate very rapidly. Feeding has increased and is now aiming to
provide greater amounts of protein and high energy, that blocks and lick
supplements cannot provide. Properties without sufficient pasture bulk
to support a supplementation program have either destocked or are
continuing to destock. Agistment has become impossible to locate and
markets are slumping. Stock are verging on being unmarketable and
producers are now being forced to hold stock on property. Surface water
supplies continue to be a major concern across the region with many
on-property storages dry or rapidly receding. Lack of water and pasture
supplies have forced the closure of stock routes.
Central Region:
Rainfall was average to extremely low compared to historical records
across Central Queensland during November. Isolated falls of up to 80mm
in the Rockhampton and Dawson/Callide Valley area provided some relief
to dry conditions. Hot conditions during the month reduced the
effectiveness of light falls that occurred in other areas. Pasture and
stock conditions continue to decline. Water resources are also being
depleted due to little recent recharge, continued use and higher
evaporation rates as conditions warm up. The cropping outlook for the
northern Central Highlands remains very poor with little or no moisture
in the soil profile. If planting rain falls soon, it will allow grain
sorghum to be planted and a later break will lead to more sunflowers and
maize being planted.
South-East Region:
November rainfall was patchy and generally below average. Some falls
have helped pasture growth and most cropping areas are waiting for
significant rain to plant crops. Major water supplies, dam and bores
remain at critically low levels in many districts. Fires and hot dry
winds have taken their toll on many pastures adding to the trying
conditions. Some areas in the southern and western parts of the Esk
Shire have been burnt out.
South Region:
This month's rainfall was average for the region. Pasture is in limited
supply in most areas due to the extended dry period. Stock condition
varies with animals in the western area worst affected. Summer crop
plantings have been limited due to dry conditions.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region:
The Normanton Stock District is very dry in most areas and stock are in
store to backward store condition. Pasture is in very short supply.
Stock condition varies greatly throughout the Georgetown Stock District
and although many properties have ample quantities of dry feed, large
areas of bare country are evident on a paddock basis. Dry conditions
have persisted throughout the Townsville Stock District. It is
showing the effect of a short growing season with pastures virtually non
existent and any remaining standing feed nutritionally worthless.
Cattle condition has remained fair due to supplementary feeding but a
large percentage of breeders are now calving with predictable effects on
their body condition. There is very little pasture available in the
Bowen Stock District with what little there is of no nutritive value.
The condition of livestock is fair, depending on location, rainfall and
management factors. The Wet Coast shires received light showers in the
middle of the month and this has helped the pastures which were drying
off severely. However, by the end of the month, pastures and crops were
again feeling the effects of a dry year. Stock are in good condition,
but several owners are destocking as their pastures deteriorate.
Significant fires have denuded large parts of the Mareeba Stock
District, especially around the Laura/Musgrave area. Quality of pasture
is very low however there is still quantity allowing for urea
supplementation to assist. Cattle have gone back quickly this month.
Cows have started to calve heavily and this is causing a resulting slide
in body scores. Stock condition in the Charters Towers Stock District
is stable at store condition, if protein and energy supplements are made
available. Breeders are slipping to backward store with the burden of
calves at foot. Pasture levels are extremely low on protein and
quantity is limited.
West Region:
In the North West pastures continue to deteriorate rapidly. Many dams
are dry and/or rapidly receding, proving to be a major concern for weak
livestock. Producers across the area continue to reduce stock numbers
by selling and/or agistment. However, suitable agistment is proving
difficult to secure. In the Central West marketable stock are being
transported to southern markets and local saleyard operations have been
cancelled for the year. Kangaroos continue to compete for available
pastures. The areas of Isisford/Longreach/Barcaldine and
Blackall/Tambo/Augathella/Charleville have deteriorated rapidly. Where
markets can be secured, major lifts of drought affected cattle are
moving onto eastern markets as properties from the South West destock.
As a result of not receiving substantial flows in the channels, this
western country is extremely dry and the only option for drought
management is to destock. Many of these properties have destocked or
are on the verge of being fully destocked.
Central Region:
Condition of stock varies from severely drought affected to good
condition. Except for the green pick provided by some of the rain,
pasture has deteriorated further in both quality and quantity. However,
there are a few places where pasture is adequate. There is some dry
feed about, but this requires some form of supplementation for real
benefit to stock. There is an increasing amount of water being carted
as remaining supplies dwindle. Dams are drying up, causing cattle to
congregate around the available water and put further pressure on the
available feed.
South-East Region:
In Gympie, stock range from extremely poor to good condition depending
on feeding regime, stocking rates and local rainfall. In the Brisbane
Valley, breeders with young at foot are in poor to store condition and
losing but breeders with no young are in reasonable condition. Most
breeders in the South Burnett are in store condition, but improving
where pastures are still adequate. Breeder condition in the Boonah
district is continually dropping due to calving and feeding of calves.
In the Central and North Burnett, stock are holding condition with
cattle on lighter country not faring as well. Maryborough district
breeders with calves are in fairly light condition where in the
Beaudesert district, stock condition varies according to the supplied
supplementary feeding. Breeders are now losing condition due to absence
of feed and the commencement of calving in the Bundaberg district, and
dry cattle are in fair condition. Stock sales continue with smaller
numbers. There is little or no agistment available in all districts.
Quality and quantity of pasture is generally poor but there is still a
small body of feed in the Central and North Burnett that was produced by
the rain in August. Native pasture is poor in the Brisbane Valley, but
areas surrounding Somerset and Wivenhoe Dams have reasonable native
pasture cover. Where producers have been lucky to receive storm rain,
some green pick is available but follow up rain is required.
South Region:
Stock condition varies throughout the region. Animals in the western
zone and border rivers area are worst affected. The prices for
livestock are holding well. Limited pasture has forced owners to remove
stock to feedlots and saleyards. Destocking practices have reduced the
need to drought feed. Supplementary feeding has become increasingly
expensive with cottonseed prices rising to $600 tonne. Corn prices have
also risen. There are real concerns regarding pasture availability for
the region. The unfavourable, hot dry conditions have limited the
quality and quantity of pasture.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE
North Region:
On the Tablelands, the tobacco harvest is completed and quality and
prices were generally good. Ground preparation has commenced for summer
cropping with late storms allowing some planting of peanuts and corn but
generally most growers need more rain before a significant planting
opportunity exists. The dry weather has suited tropical tree fruits and
paw paw yields in the wet tropics. The mango harvest has commenced with
good yields being reported. In the dry tropics the vegetable cropping
season has all but finished. Harvesting of mangoes has commenced in the
Burdekin area with yields and prices generally good. The dry month has
provided excellent harvesting conditions for sugar cane.
Central Region:
The weather in the Central Highlands has been fine and dry with a few
very isolated storms. With the summer planting window open, most
growers require upwards of 125mm to fill their soil profile and ensure a
successful summer crop. Some growers around the Capella region have
planted on less moisture than normal to get a crop in the ground. The
major planting is sorghum but this will change to either sunflower or
maize after the planting window cut off around late January/early
February. Much of the cropping area in the Dawson/Callide is now in
fallow but a small area was planted to grain sorghum following rainfall
in August. Most of this crop is now in the grain fill stage. In
paddocks that have missed the storms, crops are now showing signs of
severe moisture stress. It appears that the sorghum harvest will not
produce record yields but will provide good returns given the high grain
prices.
South-East Region:
Many winter crops of wheat and barley were rejuvenated by the rain, but
will be low yielding. However, due to very high grain prices they will
be very useful income for farmers. The planting window is now open for
many summer crops but significant falls of rain are needed for planting
in most districts. Some early planted crops of millet and sunflower
have now come up but are desperate for further rain. In the Gatton
district, lucerne production has been helped by rain but supply will
remain short with prices high. In the Gympie district the erratic
nature of the weather from extreme heat to cold nights and high winds
has made bean and other small crops difficult to produce. Dry
conditions in the Gatton district have required extra irrigation for
horticultural crops. Lettuce, broccoli, cabbage and cauliflower crops
have now finished the winter season. Sweet corn will now be planted and
onions, beetroot and carrots are now being harvested. In the Bundaberg
district, rockmelons, pumpkins and watermelons are now planted with some
early rockmelons being harvested. Tomatoes, zucchini, squash, capsicums
and eggfruit are also being harvested. Many small crop producers in the
Nambour district have cut the area of crops they are able to irrigate,
but most tree crops have flowered and are setting fruit. The citrus
harvest is continuing in the Gayndah/Mundubbera district. The main
strawberry season has finished in the Caboolture district but some
growers still have plants that are cropping. Fruit and vegetable
growers around Monto were affected by hail storms and lettuce, tomatoes
and zucchini crops were damaged.
South Region:
Well below average winter crop yields are expected regionally with
approximately 40% of available cropping area reaching harvest. Parts of
Wallumbilla, Miles, Meandarra and Dalby districts received useful
planting rain for wheat, chickpea and barley crops in June. The late
August rains assisted growth and yield potential of these crops and some
good harvest results have been realised in this area. Hail destroyed
crops in a band from Moonie to north of Tara. Early sorghum crops were
planted around the Miles district through to Goondiwindi. Commodity
prices look encouraging for grain. Goondiwindi has only 30% of the
cotton area planted and on the Darling Downs cotton planting will be
reduced as ring tank storages are low and some farmers have taken the
option to plant sorghum because of better prices. Irrigation water is
limited in the Stanthorpe Shire and production and fruit quality will be
affected. Poor pollination, low yields, low production and poorer
quality fruit have affected grapes. Fire has destroyed grape and fruit
trees.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 71mm (222) Cairns A/P 17mm (100),
Malanda 20mm (106), Ingham 25mm (112), Innisfail 49mm (n/a), Townsville
1mm (55), Tully 82mm (n/a), Bowen 8mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm
(n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (63) and Normanton A/P 143mm (n/a) Proserpine
A/P 48mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P 5mm (n/a), Boulia 4mm (19), Windorah 0.8mm
(16), Cloncurry 14mm (29), Mt Isa 6mm (24), Longreach 0.0mm (23),
Muttaburra n/a (31), Winton 2mm (28) and Charleville 10mm (42).
Central Region: Clermont recorded 4mm (64), Alpha 0.6 (46), Springsure
13mm (66), Mackay 6mm (88), Yaamba 36mm (67), Biloela A/P 23mm (86), Mt
Larcom 53 (89), Gladstone 36mm (81), and Theodore 19mm (86).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 43mm (78), Gayndah 32mm (86),
Mundubbera 36mm (80), Esk 92mm (87), Kilkivan 53mm (81), Kingaroy 4mm
(n/a), Nanango 26mm (85), Proston 6mm (76), and Beaudesert 26mm (93).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 45mm (101), Maryborough 67mm
(105), Nambour 102mm (158) and Tewantin 90mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 36mm (85), Dalby 66mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 36mm
(n/a), Inglewood 50mm (69), Oakey 22mm (81), Pittsworth 37mm (83),
Stanthorpe 31mm (83), Toowoomba A/P 68mm (n/a), Warwick 32mm (n/a), Roma
11mm (n/a), Miles 29mm (n/a), St George A/P 1mm (n/a) and Taroom 15mm
(75).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region:
Water supplies in the Townsville Stock District are adequate but surface
water is becoming scarce in most areas. Underground supplies are coping
at present, although some are beginning to show signs of the demands
being placed on them. In the Bowen Stock District surface supplies in
all areas are very low or non-existent. Most dams and streams have
dried up and the Bowen River is at a very low level with only limited
amounts of water being released from the Eungella Dam. The underground
supply is deteriorating quickly in all areas. Stock water supplies are
generally adequate in the Wet Coast shires although some graziers are
carting water to stock. Irrigation water from creeks remains under
restrictions in some watersheds. The low rainfall on the eastern side
of the Peninsula and Mareeba Shire has resulted in very low overland
flows in the major streams and rivers. The Mitchell River is subsiding
into sand in places and rivers such as the Normandy are dry. There is a
very limited surface water supply in the Charters Towers Stock District,
with water supply for dams almost completely gone and bore supplies
being utilised quite heavily to maintain supply to stock.
West Region:
On-property surface storages continue to recede and are now a major
concern for affected producers. Large tracts of country within the
Diamantina shire have been destocked as a result of the lack of water,
regardless of the feed availability.
Central Region:
November was a dry month with most areas receiving little or no rain.
There are very few natural flows in the Fitzroy or western streams.
Water supplies appear to be approaching a crisis point over a broad
area.
South-East Region:
All water storages in the region are at low levels. Irrigation bores
and dams are also failing in most districts. Significant rainfall will
be needed to alleviate the situation. In the Maryborough district,
water supplies are becoming critical with dams getting very low and
holes are being dug in creek beds for water supplies. Farm dams
continue to dry-up with heavy demand on underground supplies and wells
in the Boonah district and Moogerah Dam still remains at about 2% with
Maroon Dam quickly dropping. Lack of irrigation water continues to be
of major concern in the Gympie district with some dairies having to
close their operations. In the South Burnett surface water is getting
low, apart from the western part of the shire where run-off rain was
received during the month. Bore water is still adequate. In the North
and Central Burnett, there are many reports of underground supplies at
very low levels. In the Beaudesert area, restrictions have been in
place on the Logan River for some months and are constantly under
review. Surface water supplies are in extremely short supply across the
shire.
South Region:
There are parts of Balonne, Waroo, Inglewood, Stanthorpe, Warwick and
Waggamba shires which are experiencing stock water shortages.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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