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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK: The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for September was -7.3 and for October was -7.6. Based on these monthly values the SOI remains in a "Consistently Negative" phase. Based on this recent pattern, the probability of receiving or getting above the long term median rainfall for November to January remains low (10-40%) across most of Queensland. However probabilities are marginally higher (40-60%) for parts of the Darling Downs and west Queensland indicating the potential for some relief rainfall. When dealing with probabilities it is important to consider the additional information provided. For example, based on the recent pattern of the SOI there is a 15% chance of getting above the long term November to January median rainfall of 373mm at Gympie. Therefore there is an 85% chance of not getting the long term November to January median rainfall.

Another way of looking at this is that in 1 to 2 years out of 10 with the current SOI pattern, Gympie has received its long term median November to January rainfall. Therefore in around 8 to 9 years out of 10 with the current SOI pattern, below median rainfall has been recorded at Gympie for November to January. Despite the fact that the probability of getting median rainfall remains low for many areas, it does not mean Queensland will miss out on all rain altogether. There will be some relief rain over summer, even though that rainfall will probably not exceed the long term average. For more climate related information contact the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23. Alternatively try the DPI's climate web site www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate on which the "Climate Note" can be found. The climate note contains more detailed information including rainfall probability maps, SST information etc. A recorded message with the 30 day average of the SOI is also available on 46881439.

STATE OVERVIEW: Dry conditions are still persistent across the vast majority of the state with little or no relief received from rain over the past month. With most livestock in poor condition and the cost of fodder high, many managers are now looking at destocking their properties by sending cattle on to sale as an alternate to drought feeding. This appears to be the favoured option, as agistment is becoming harder to source. Surface water supplies continue to be a major concern across the state with many on-property storages dry or rapidly receding. During the month of October, following recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Rural Communities drought declared the shires of Booringa, Ipswich and Warroo. There are now 50 shires and 2 part shires drought declared under state drought processes. The area declared represents approximately twenty seven and a half percent of the land area of the state. There are also 484 Individually Drought Declared Properties (IDPs) in a further 32 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: The season continued to stay dry across the north region with many stations recording no rainfall this month. The cane harvest continues with generally good yields with the exception of some of the drier areas around Innisfail and the Tablelands. Surface waters remain short and rain will be required to replenish on property storages. In general the situation across the north is deteriorating and without any significant rainfall prior to the end of the year, crops and stock will start to struggle. Bowen shire has seen an increase in the number of IDPs approved with other northern centres declaring individual properties in the southern part of Dalrymple shire and in Thuringowa shire.

West Region: With agistment becoming harder to source, and no effective rainfall during the month, properties without sufficient pasture bulk to support a supplementation program have either destocked or continue to destock. Surface water supplies continue to be a major concern across the region with many on-property storages dry or rapidly receding and a major consideration on IDP declarations. Lack of water and pasture supplies have forced many shire councils to close stock routes to travelling stock

Central Region: Few falls over 10 mm were recorded during the month of October, resulting in below average totals when compared to the long-term rainfall records. Conditions in the region continue to deteriorate in general, with no immediate relief from early storms occurring anywhere throughout the region. The cropping outlook for the northern Central Highlands remains poor with little or no moisture in the soil profile. Crops in the Southern Highlands and Dawson Callide are currently being harvested. Wheat prices are excellent at present and providing good returns for farmers who have secured crops. Pasture condition continues to deteriorate as the hot conditions develop leading into the coming summer.

South-East Region: October rainfall was patchy and generally below average. Some significant falls have encouraged pasture growth although most cropping areas are waiting for significant rain before planting. The quantity and quality of the pasture across the South East region is poor. Stock condition varies and ranges from extremely poor to good condition. Major water supplies, dams and bores remain at critically low levels in many districts. Some hail damage has occurred in the Burnett.

South Region: Rainfall was below average with the highest falls recorded being in the Border River and Darling Downs area. Hail damage to crops has been reported in the Tara to Moonie area. Pasture is in limited supply in most areas due to the extended dry period. Fires in the Stanthorpe, Warwick, Tara and Taroom shires have worsened the current situation. Stock condition varies throughout the region with animals in the western zone worst affected.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Early in the month, pastures responded well in some Tableland areas following the previous month's showers. However, by the end of the month pastures had hayed off and were quickly disappearing. Stock in the western areas is slipping due to the drop in feed quality. Stock water supplies are generally adequate, although there are some reports of water being carted. In the Georgetown stock district, livestock are in fair condition for this time of the year but this could vary across the district depending on pasture availability and supplementation used. Overall, most properties have adequate stands of dry feed which should see them through with a normal onset of the wet season. Supplementary feeding is occurring across the Charters Towers district and is assisting cattle to hold reasonable condition. Pasture quality varies across the district. In the northern areas, the quantity seems to be fair although the in southern districts quantity is low. Surface water has receded in all areas with some dams having dried up. There are reports of underground water supplies dropping or reducing output which is placing additional pressure on remaining supplies. Many properties will need some reasonable rain prior to January to alleviate water problems.

West Region: Areas outside the declared areas have deteriorated during the last month. Feeding has increased and is now aiming to provide greater amounts of protein and high energy that blocks and lick supplements cannot provide. Properties without sufficient pasture bulk to support a supplementation program have either destocked or are continuing to destock. In the north western areas of the region, no significant rainfalls were recorded during the month. Pastures across these areas continue to deteriorate rapidly. Surface water supplies are at critical levels in many on-property storages with dams dry and/or rapidly receding, proving to be a major concern for weak livestock. Producers across the area continue to reduce stock numbers through sale or agistment, however, suitable agistment is proving difficult to secure. Around the Boulia, Winton, Longreach, Blackall stock districts stock numbers continue to be lightened off. Cattle that have been walking the stock routes are being forced on to the eastern market or to return home as routes close. Surface water supplies are a major consideration in IDP inspections as on-property supplies dwindle and disappear. The areas of Isisford, Longreach, Barcaldine and Blackall, Tambo, Augathella and Charleville have deteriorated rapidly.

Central Region: Drought affected male cattle are coming into the store sales. However, there are some cattle around in excellent condition and some stock that are still in fair condition for this time of the year. The worst of the cattle are in very poor condition with a few properties losing some stock. Although wet cows are at the greatest risk, there have been reports of dry cattle showing the effects of the extended dry conditions. There is very little bulk in the pasture at present, although there are some areas that will hold on if the summer storms start soon. October was a hotter than normal month and combined with the wind, took its toll on the pasture. Water supplies have tightened up because of the hot weather with a few reports of water being carted. The water situation has been fairly tight in a lot of the region for some time now, but producers have so far managed the situation. If the hot dry conditions continue, supplies could reach well below average levels.

South-East Region: Stock condition ranges from extremely poor to good depending on the feeding regime, stocking rates and local rainfall. The greater majority of producers are hand feeding with some properties using opportunity feedlots. In the South Burnett most breeders are in store condition. Graziers are still supplementing their stock, with molasses being the main fodder source. Cental and North Burnett stock are holding condition although the cattle on lighter country are not fairing as well. Breeder condition in the Boonah districts is continually dropping due to calving and the feeding of calves. Around Beaudesert, stock condition varies according to the supplied supplementary feeding. Breeders in backward condition are becoming evident across the shire. Due to the absence of feed and the commencement of calving, stock in the Bundaberg area are now losing condition. The quantity and quality of pasture across the South East region is poor and there has been insufficient rainfall to promote any pasture growth. The recent rainfall in the South Burnett area may provide a start but follow-up rain will determine if the quantity and quality of the pasture will increase. The Central & North Burnett districts still have a small body of feed that was produced by the rain in August.

South Region: Stock condition varies throughout the region with livestock in the western zone and Border Rivers the worst affected. Limited pasture has forced owners to remove stock and send to the feedlots or saleyards. This is likely to increase the price of breeders when graziers look to rebuild their herds. As supplementary feeding has become increasingly expensive, managers who have elected to undertake destocking on their properties have reduced the need to drought feed. The cost of feeding stock has reached a point where graziers need to consider whether this is a viable management strategy. Fires in the Stanthorpe, Warwick, Tara and Taroom areas destroyed standing pasture, which will increase the need to drought feed or cull stock. Warm and wet conditions are now required to stimulate pasture growth. The very hot, dry conditions that have prevailed, has resulted in pasture that is limited in both quality and quantity.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE

North Region: On the Tablelands the tobacco harvest is generally complete except for a small number of late crops. Potato harvesting continues, with the quality being very good although the price and yields have been fair. Ground preparation has commenced for summer cropping. The dry weather has made it difficult for producers to water, as irrigation systems in these areas supplement rainfall rather than supply the crops water supply. In the Dry Tropics conditions remain very dry as the cropping season draws to a close. Some early mangoes have started to leave the district but these are only in small numbers. It appears that irrigation supplies have withstood the cropping season but replenishment of the system will need to occur to ensure there are adequate supplies in the following season. The hot conditions have had some impact on plant and ratoon cane, which has been showing signs of stress. In the Burdekin district sugar cane harvesting continues.

Central Region: October was another dry month in the Dawson and Callide valleys, with only a few areas receiving rain and showers towards the end of the month. High daily temperatures meant that most of the moisture disappeared quickly and many of the winter crops ripened quicker than expected. Wheat yields have varied considerably ranging from 1.0 t/ha up to 2.5t/ha. Central highland conditions have remained relatively dry for the month of October. There are some small pockets of winter crop to the north of Clermont and the south of Emerald, with a few scattered areas in between. Chickpea yields have been higher south of Emerald with the harvest exceeding all expectations. Reports of chickpeas yielding 1.2 to 1.5t/ha around Gindie/Fernlees are common with chickpea prices approximately $585 delivered before the second week of October. Approximately seventy percent of the cotton growing area has now been planted. The majority of the central highlands are still waiting for significant rainfall prior to planting a summer crop.

South-East Region: In the Gympie district, the erratic nature of the weather from extreme heat to cold nights and high winds has made bean and other small crops difficult to produce. Many small crop producers have had to either stop or severely reduce the production of crops due to water shortages. Lettuce, broccoli, cabbage and cauliflower crops have now finished the winter season with onions, beetroot and carrots are now being harvested. Rockmelons, pumpkins and watermelons are now planted in the Bundaberg district with some early rockmelons being harvested. Water allocations are at a critical level and many growers may not be able to plant this spring. The outlook for the citrus harvest in the Gayndah region is good, although there are concerns over the lack of water supply for the coming season. Strawberry season has finished around Caboolture although some growers still have plants that are cropping. Most producers in the area have received some rain, but farm dams are in need of replenishment after the dry period. The Nambour district is dry with many small crop producers having to drastically cut the area of crops they are able to irrigate. Fruit and vegetable growers around Monto were affected by hail storms with lettuce, tomatoes and zucchini crops also damaged. Most tree crops are now flowered and are setting fruit.

South Region: Well below average winter crop yields are expected regionally with only 40 to 50% of available cropping area expected to reach harvest. Early sorghum crops have been planted around the Miles district through to Goondiwindi. Commodity prices are looking encouraging for grain. St.George, Dirranbandi and Thallon are some of the worst affected cropping zones. Dirranbandi has no stored water and Goondiwindi only has about 30% of the cotton area planted. On the Darling Downs cotton plantings will be reduced and some farmers have taken the option to plant sorghum as better prices are realised. In the Stanthorpe Shire irrigation water is very low although there will be sufficient for the irrigation needs of fruit trees. Vegetable growers can only grow half of their normal production. The recent fires in the southern areas of the state have destroyed some grape and fruit trees.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 0.7mm (109) Cairns A/P 0.0mm (44), Malanda n/a (50), Ingham 1mm (47), Innisfail 8mm (n/a), Townsville 0.0mm (25), Tully 9mm (n/a), Bowen 0.0mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 0mm (18) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 0.8mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (12), Boulia 0mm (13), Windorah 0mm (17), Cloncurry 0.0mm (n/a), Mt Isa 0.0mm (20), Longreach 0.0mm (18), Muttaburra n/a (22), Winton 0.0mm (16) and Charleville 4mm (31).

Central Region: Clermont recorded 0.4mm (36), Alpha n/a (34), Springsure 0.2mm (42), Mackay 4mm (39), Yaamba 0.4mm (42), Biloela A/P 8mm (61), Mt Larcom n/a (59), Gladstone 8mm (61), and Theodore 6mm (64).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 12mm (66), Gayndah 56mm (62), Mundubbera 32mm (71), Esk 38mm (82), Kilkivan 26mm (75), Kingaroy 28mm (n/a), Nanango 41mm (79), Proston 9mm (70), and Beaudesert 20mm (74). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 9mm (67), Maryborough 71mm (75), Nambour 75mm (107) and Tewantin 59mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 28mm (67), Dalby 25mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 24mm (n/a), Inglewood 42mm (58), Oakey 20mm (61), Pittsworth 12mm (67), Stanthorpe 29mm (72), Toowoomba A/P 17mm (n/a), Warwick 16mm (n/a), Roma 20mm (n/a), Miles 4mm (n/a), St George A/P 21mm (n/a) and Taroom 2mm (60).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface waters remain short and relieving rain will be needed shortly to replenish on property storages. The Mitchell River has stopped flowing below Mt Mulgrave and major tributaries such as the Lynd and Walsh rivers have also subsided into the sand. The underground water will be adequate across most of the district, although some areas have dry bores and the salt incursion in some delta streams is causing the water to be unsuitable for irrigation purposes.

West Region: On property surface storages continue to recede and are now a major concern for affected producers. The lack of surface water is going to be a real problem as the season progresses and a major component of IDP applications. Large tracts of country within the Diamantina shire have been destocked due to the lack of water even though there was an adequate supply of feed.

Central Region: Very little rain was received across the region during the month of October. Combined with the long-term dry conditions, this has resulted in all streams recording monthly totals well below the mean and median for this time of the year. There were some isolated falls in the Fitzroy and Bauhinia shires and a local storm that produced between 10 to 30 mm on a few properties south of Rolleston.

South-East Region: All water storages in the region are at low levels. Significant rainfall will be needed to alleviate the situation. In the Boonah district, farm dams continue to dry-up with heavy demand placed on underground supplies and wells. Bore water is still adequate. In the North & Central Burnett there are many reports of underground supplies at very low levels. Most areas have far better farm dam storage supplies after the August rain. Beaudesert surface water supplies are in extremely short supply. Irrigation water continues to be a critical issue.

South Region: Rainfall during the month of October was well below average with the highest rainfalls being recorded in the Border River and Darling Downs area. On the Balonne River below St George, the lower Balonne tributaries did not flow, as there were no releases from Beardmore Dam. The Severn River at Ballandean did not flow whilst the Dumaresq experienced similar conditions. The drier conditions have lead to increased competition for groundwater supplies.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.