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page regenerated:
07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK: Based on the shift in value of the SOI from August to September the SOI is now in a "Consistently Negative" phase. The chance of receiving above median rainfall for October to December is quite low (20-40%) for most of Queensland. However for parts of southern and far western Queensland, the probability of receiving above median rainfall for the next 3 months are marginally higher (30-50%). For example, there is currently a twenty nine percent chance of getting above the long term October to December median rainfall of 178mm at Emerald. This compares with a forty seven percent chance of getting above the long term October to December median rainfall of 209mm at Dalby. As always when dealing with probabilities it is essential to consider the additional information provided. For example currently there is a thirty two percent chance of getting above the long term October to December median rainfall of 125mm at Roma. Therefore there is a sixty eight percent chance of not getting the long term October to December median rainfall.

Another way of looking at this is that in approximately one third of years (3 years out of 10) with the current SOI pattern, Roma has received its long term median October to December rainfall. Therefore in around two thirds of years (7 years out of 10) with the current SOI pattern, below median rainfall has been recorded at Roma for the next 3 months. For more climate related information contact the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23. Alternatively try the DPI's climate web site www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate on which the "Climate Note" can be found. The climate note contains more detailed information including rainfall probability maps, SST information etc. A recorded message with the 30 day average of the SOI is also available on 46881439.

STATE OVERVIEW:

In the Northern region, producers continue to lighten off stock through the sale yards, and water supply problems are being experienced in some areas. The Western region has seen an increase in supplementary feeding along with destocking where sufficient pasture bulk does not support a supplementation program. Water supplies continue to be a major concern across the region with many on-property storages dry or rapidly receding. In the Central region, stock condition ranges from very poor to good. Pastures appear reasonable around Banana shire and parts of the coastal areas, but declines in quality and quantity in the other districts. The South and South-Eastern regions still have major water concerns with water supplies, dams and bores at critically low levels. During the month of September, following recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Rural Communities drought declared the shire of Bulloo and part shire of Quilpie. There are now 43 shires and 2 part shires drought declared under state drought processes. The area declared represents approximately twenty seven percent of the land area of the state. There are also 445 Individually Drought Declared Properties (IDPs) in a further 33 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: Large numbers of stock have been sold during September particularly through export facilities. Cattle prices are still good and this is an incentive for producers to lighten off. Other property owners have been forced to hold onto their breeding stock due to continuing drought conditions in the south, where stock are usually sent to fatten. Water problems are being experienced, mainly in the dry southern areas and this situation will worsen considerably in the next few months of hot dry weather unless early storms are received. August rain promoted fresh pasture growth however this hopeful start was short lived due to lack of follow up rains. Hay prices are currently expensive and cottonseed is almost unprocurable.

West Region: Stock condition varies throughout the region ranging from poor to good condition depending on location, rainfall & management factors. Supplementary feeding has increased to provide livestock with much needed protein for maintenance and those properties without sufficient pasture bulk to support a supplementation program are continuing to lighten stock numbers. No effective rainfall has been recorded during the month. IDP applications continue to increase, particularly in the central west area. Water supplies are a major concern across the region with many on-property storages dry or rapidly receding.

Central Region: The central district seasonal conditions remain varied with drought conditions being experienced around Capella and Clermont while conditions around Banana shire are reasonable. Areas to the west of the region continue to deteriorate, with the Alpha stock office receiving an increase in the number of IDP enquiries in Belyando Shire. The only rain reported during the month was some isolated falls of up to 30 mm around the Rockhampton stock district. Stock condition ranges from very poor to good. Pastures appear reasonable around the Banana shire and parts of the coastal areas, but falls in quality and quantity over the greater part of the region.

South-East Region: Below average rainfalls were recorded for all centres in the region during September. However the benefits from the rain in August made a difference to all districts in the northern parts of the South East. Unfortunately many of the southern areas had no significant rainfall to alleviate the dry conditions. It would be expected that if current trends continue more shires would apply for drought declarations. Major water supplies, dams and bores remain at critically low levels especially in the Boonah Beaudesert area.

South Region: Stock condition varies throughout the southern region with stock in the western district and Border Rivers area the worst affected. Early sorghum crops have been planted in the western Downs area after the August falls. This months' rainfall was well below average with 10mm or less recorded. Pasture is limited in most areas.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Stock condition varies throughout the region ranging from poor to good condition depending on location, rainfall & management factors. Stock condition is declining in the drier areas but is still consistent with a normal dry season. Wet stock are starting to show signs of a prolonged dry season which is resulting in a fall in body condition due to lack of pasture quality and water supplies. Most other stock is holding well with supplements. Stock prices remain good for all classes of stock. This is assisting producers to lighten off. A good quantity of pastures on most properties is still present but quality is falling away to little or no nutritional values. Only the coastal area around Proserpine shire has retained any quality of pasture. The Georgetown district has adequate reserves of dry feed on most properties that should see stock through until a break in the season. Supplementary feeding is occurring on most properties and is the standard practice for this time of year.

West Region: In the north-west area around Mt Isa, Cloncurry, Julia Creek, Richmond and Hughenden districts dams are dry or rapidly receding, proving to be a major concern for weak livestock. Producers across the whole area continue to reduce stock numbers by selling and/or agistment, however, suitable agistment is proving difficult to find. Producers in the central west continue to lighten off as pastures deteriorate. Cattle that have been working the stock routes are being forced on to the market or to return home as routes begin to close. Kangaroos continue to impact heavily on available pastures. Generally the areas of Isisford, Longreach, Barcaldine and Blackall, Tambo, Augathella and Charleville still have a reasonable body of pasture, however, the quality is very low and supplementation feeding is being provided to maintain the condition of stock. The areas of Charleville, Cunnamulla and Quilpie are sending increased numbers of drought affected cattle to saleyards, as property managers continue to use destocking as part of their management plan. The western country is extremely dry as a result of not receiving substantial flows during the month.

Central Region: Stock condition in Jericho shire ranges from very poor to good. In the Banana/Calliope district, stock appear to be in good condition and improving after beneficial rain was received back in June and August. Pastures and crops are responding well to the falls although further rain is still required prior to the end of October to see the season set for a great start to summer. Pasture and grasses have started to grow after the rain, although the cooler weather received during the last couple of weeks of the month has brought most growth to a standstill. Rockhampton, Duaringa and Fitzroy districts have experienced some growth in pastures but in many cases the quantity is not there. Stock condition remains variable with drought affected cattle still evident at the saleyards. South-East Region: In the northern parts of the region where there was significant rain stock have improved in condition with the short green feed. In southern areas where there has not been significant rainfall, the condition of stock continues to deteriorate. Destocking via saleyards has dropped dramatically after receiving good rainfall although the drier areas still need to reduce stock numbers. The great majority of producers are now feeding stock supplements and licks. Stock feeds are in short supply but the rain has made more hay available. Pastures in the northern areas have responded well and are providing a useful but dry pick for stock. Drier southern areas still have little feed and the situation will not change without significant rain.

South Region: Stock condition varies throughout the region with animals in the western district and Border Rivers most affected. In line with other areas of the state, limited pasture has forced owners to destock to feedlots and saleyards. There have been large numbers of cattle on the stock routes, however, as pasture has become limited many animals were offered for sale. Supplementary feeding has become increasingly more expensive. Areas around Balonne, Inglewood, Stanthorpe, Warwick and Waggamba shires are experiencing water shortages. Rainfall received during August has activated some response to summer pastures in the western Downs. However there are real concerns with pasture availability over the bulk of the region. Further rainfall is required to promote beneficial growth.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE

North Region: The tobacco harvest in the Mareeba district is drawing to a close with ninety percent of the crop harvested. Quality and yields have been good with the first sale occurring this month and returning good to average prices. Dry conditions in the wet tropics have been ideal for many crops. Disease incidences in paw paw trees have been low and tropical tree fruits have been flowering well as a result of the cool dry winter. The banana crop is experiencing the normal spring flush of growth and cropping of watermelons and pumpkins has been occurring as growers take advantage of the high commodity prices available. The biggest hurdle growers are now facing is the declining water quality along with the dry weather putting increased pressure on irrigation supplies. Sugar cane harvesting continues in all districts. The wet tropics yields have been good and dry weather has been ideal for harvesting. The Tully mill crush has nearly doubled from last year and is expecting to harvest 2.3 Mt (million tonne) of cane compared to 1.5Mt last year. Mareeba district CCS has been good but yields are down. The Burdekin district yields remain above estimates and CCS is good.

Central Region: September has been a dry month in the Dawson and Callide valleys, with no useful rain recorded throughout the area. This has assisted winter crops to start to mature, as most crops have already used rain received in late August. Some early wheat crops are already being harvested, with indications of high protein levels. By late October, harvest should be in full swing with growers hoping that the record wheat prices around at present will compensate for the reduced yields expected in most areas. A small area of spring sorghum has been planted on the August rain, although a few cooler nights during the month slowed emergence in some paddocks. However, the warmer daytime temperatures towards the end of the month have helped most crops to recover. Most cotton crops in the region are now well established. The current seasonal outlook does not appear to be favourable for producers considering a summer crop. South-East Region: Many winter crops in the region were rejuvenated by the rain and some will now produce a small crop. The rain will also prove to be very beneficial for the start of the summer cropping season. Some early planted crops of millet and sunflower have now come up but are reliant upon further rain. In the Gatton district, lucerne production has been assisted by rain but the demand for lucerne will be greater than the available supply, continuing to keep prices high. The majority of all irrigation water is being directed to higher value horticultural crops. Around Gatton, dry conditions have required extra irrigation for horticultural crops. In the Bundaberg district tomatoes, capsicums, zucchinis, squash, capsicums and eggfruit are currently being grown. The Nambour district is very dry with many small crop producers having to drastically cut the area of crops they are able to irrigate. Most tree crops are now flowering and setting fruit so the rainfall has been very welcome. In the Gayndah/Mundubbera district citrus harvesting is continuing with the outlook being promising, provided there is an available water supply for the coming season.

South Region: Well below average winter crop yields are expected regionally. To date only forty to fifty percent of the available cropping area will reach harvest. There are parts of Wallumbilla, Miles, Meandarra and Dalby districts that received useful planting rain for wheat, chickpea and barley crops, in June. The late August rain further assisted growth and yield potential of these crops. Early sorghum crops were planted around Miles and through to Goondiwindi with commodity prices looking encouraging for grain. St.George, Dirranbandi and Thallon have been some of the worst affected cropping zones with irrigation water in the Stanthorpe Shire very low. Pumping restrictions have been placed on all non-dam water sources, which affects vegetable and stone fruit growers. Most apple growers have sufficient dam water for spring growth while although vegetable growers struggle.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 42mm (122) Cairns A/P 12mm (n/a), Malanda 9mm (36), Ingham 20mm (33), Innisfail 25mm (n/a), Townsville 1mm (10), Tully 60mm (n/a), Bowen 2mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 0mm (5) and Normanton A/P 0.2mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 8mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P 3mm (n/a), Boulia 1mm (3), Windorah 6mm (9), Cloncurry n/a (6), Mt Isa 0.0mm (8), Longreach 0.0mm (9), Muttaburra n/a (10), Winton 0.0mm (7) and Charleville 4mm (21).

Central Region: Clermont recorded 0.6mm (15), Alpha n/a (18), Springsure 0.0mm (26), Mackay 12mm (15), Yaamba 2mm (24), Biloela A/P 0.0mm (26), Mt Larcom 4mm (22), Gladstone 1mm (24), and Theodore n/a (28).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 2mm (29), Gayndah 0.8mm (30), Mundubbera 1mm (29), Esk 18mm (37), Kilkivan 5mm (31), Kingaroy 2mm (n/a), Nanango 4 (33), Proston 4 (31), and Beaudesert n/a (38). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 7mm (30), Maryborough 4mm (29), Nambour 13mm (43) and Tewantin 27mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 5mm (38), Dalby 8mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 8mm (n/a), Inglewood 4mm (41), Oakey 11mm (32), Pittsworth 7mm (33), Stanthorpe 5mm (48), Toowoomba A/P 22mm (n/a), Warwick 8mm (n/a), Roma 0.2mm (n/a), Miles 1mm (n/a), St George A/P 8mm (n/a) and Taroom 1mm (28).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface supplies are deteriorating across most of the region with inland areas almost completely depleted. The exception being the southern coastal district where supplies still remain adequate. Underground water continues to dwindle with some salt incursion occurring in deltas. The Copperfield River is still flowing well and is feeding into the Einasleigh and Gilbert River System. Most other major rivers and creeks have ceased to flow. Water supplies in the Townsville stock district are adequate and should hold until rain can be reasonably expected.

West Region: Water supplies continue to be a major concern across the west region with many on-property storages dry or rapidly receding. In general no significant rainfall has been recorded during September, and as a result, pastures across the region continue to deteriorate rapidly. Surface water supplies are at critical levels as on-property supplies dwindle. This will be the major reason for initiating IDP inspections. The lack of surface water will be a real concern as the season progresses, if no significant rainfall is received.

Central Region: No major problems reported in the Central region, but the feeling is that there will be shortages if the season does not break early. Water supplies in the Central West are adequate in most places although storm rains are required to maintain levels. Dams and underground supplies in the Banana and Bauhinia shires are adequate but flood waters are needed to replenish major holding facilities. There are no reports of water shortages, but most creeks and dams have water levels below what would be expected for this time of the year. If there is going to be a problem in the future it will be with surface water.

South-East Region: Surface and underground water supplies continue to be stressed despite the rain. Some farm dams have been filled, but in the majority of cases further falls are needed. All creeks and the upper reaches of the Bremer River and Logan River are dry. Moogerah Dam remains extremely low with Maroon Dam depleting rapidly. In the Beaudesert area, the Albert River, Christmas Ck and Running Ck are also dry. Irrigation allocations from Fred Haigh Dam are at the lowest levels ever and the recent rainfall has not altered the situation.

South Region: The dry spell continued over southern inland Queensland and the Darling Downs during August. Moderate to isolated heavy falls were recorded during the month in the northern, central and eastern Downs. In the Maranoa catchment both Mitchell and Cashmere remained dry for the period. Flow volumes reflect the continuing poor season in the Border Rivers for August. The Severn River at Ballandean did not flow whilst the Dumaresq River experienced similar conditions. The drier conditions have led to increased competition for groundwater supplies.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.