SITUATION AS AT 30 APRIL 2003:
The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as of the end
of April is minus 5.9. Based on the recent SOI pattern, a somewhat mixed
seasonal outlook exists for May to July across Queensland. For the
Gulf, Peninsular and a large proportion of the southern half of the
State, the chance of getting above the long term May to July median
rainfall has remained low at around to 30-40%. Rainfall probabilities
across parts of central and western Queensland though are higher at
around 50-70%. For example, there is a 40% chance of getting above the
long term May to July median rainfall of 100mm at Surat and a 62% chance
of getting or getting above the May to July median rainfall of 21mm at
Birdsville. As always when dealing with a probability based forecast
system it is important to consider the alternate view. For example,
currently there is a 38% chance of getting above 132mm at Esk for May to
July. This also means there is a 62% chance of not getting above 132mm.
Another way of looking at this is that in 3 to 4 years out of 10 (or
around one third) with the current SOI pattern, Esk has received more
than 132mm for May to July. Therefore in 6 to 7 years out of 10 (or
around two thirds) with the current SOI pattern, less than 132mm has
been recorded at Esk.
Some key changes still needed in terms of El Nino breakdown include a
return to more positive SOI values as well as a continuing cool down of
sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific. While the risk is
low, there still remains a chance that the El Nino will regenerate in
some form during autumn/winter this year (especially after the next
passage of the MJO - the band of low atmospheric pressure originating
off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the
Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 50 days). Given
current ocean and atmospheric conditions our policy remains not to
'sound the all clear' regarding the complete breakdown of the El Nino
system until the end of May. More information can be found at
www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au or by
ringing the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Generally rainfall across the State was isolated and patchy, although
falls in the South-East were average to above average in coastal
regions. Because of the earlier dry conditions across the State and
late summer rainfall, there has been below average pasture growth and
most areas are reporting that there will be insufficient pasture fodder
to sustain stocking levels through winter. In western Queensland there
has been very little response from the Mitchell grass. In this area it
is also noticeable that the annual and summer grass response is now
denuded, and the previous standing stubble dissolved by the
February/March rainfall event. The cropping outlook in the Central
Highlands and coastal cane areas in Central Queensland remains
uncertain. However, a large winter crop planting is expected for the
Dawson Callide, especially if substantial rainfall is received soon.
Extensive winter plantings are also expected in the Maranoa and western
Downs. There are currently 89 shires and 6 part shires declared under
state processes, which represents approximately 63.8% of the State of
Queensland. There are also 130 Individually Droughted Properties
(IDP's) in a further 16 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: Rainfall across the northern districts during the middle
of the month provided some relief in coastal areas. Generally rainfall
inland was limited and falls were of insignificant levels. Overall the
season remains dry and it has generally been a below average wet season
for the north. Impact on production remains variable. The cane crop is
currently looking good with a few isolated dry patches. Horticulture
crops have survived with the assistance of irrigation but water supplies
remain depleted in some areas. Livestock industries are heading into
winter with generally below average pasture growth. The cropping
industries have faired reasonably well but soil moisture levels are low
and a wet winter will be needed for production to continue at current
levels.
West Region: Isolated rains occurred across the region during the month
but benefits will be short lived. Small areas in the Murweh/Tambo
shires, an area to the north and west of Longreach and parts of Boulia
shire should have sufficient feed to see them through winter, but most
of the region will have insufficient pasture fodder to sustain stocking
levels at greater than 30% to 40% maximum. The lack of response from
Mitchell grass and hayed buffel grass has resulted in an extremely bleak
outlook for the winter period. Even with significant general rainfall
in the next few weeks, pasture response will most probably be limited.
Central Region: Patchy rainfall was received across eastern parts of
Central Queensland during April. Cropping areas in the Capella district
have little summer crop and many are moisture stressed. Winter crop
prospects are poor unless significant rainfall occurs soon. Summer
crops in the Dawson Callide are in reasonable shape and the outlook in
that area is much better with winter crop planted and summer crop yields
looking good. Large areas of winter crop are expected, especially if
substantial rainfall is received soon. Cane is beginning to struggle
with little follow up rain occurring. Stock condition is generally
holding in the better areas of the region, with the southern areas being
in reasonable shape, while the situation in the north is more patchy.
Driest inland areas are in the Peak Downs and Springsure areas.
South-East Region: April rainfall varied for most centres throughout
the region with most rainfall stations recording average to above
totals. The higher rainfall totals were restricted to the near coastal
centres. There are still many areas that have not had significant
enough rainfall to run creeks and fill dams. Most creeks in the South
Burnett and Central Burnett, Lockyer Valley, Boonah, Beaudesert and
Brisbane area have not had worthwhile flows. Many major dams in these
areas are still at low levels and significant rainfall is needed to
alleviate the situation.
South Region: The highest rainfall recorded was 150mm to 200mm over the
Roma, Wallumbilla and Yuleba districts and 50mm to 100mm over the
central and western Downs. The eastern Downs and Balonne shire recorded
between 25mm and 50mm. The late summer rain has not produced enough
pasture to carry stock over winter. Forage oats and lucerne may be
useful in maintaining production. Stock condition in general is at the
lower end of the scale going into winter. Surface water storages are
low. There is expected to be extensive winter plantings in the Maranoa
and western Downs after the rain, which has replenished subsoil
profiles.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Generally across the region livestock condition is holding
but there has been some slippage of breeders due to insufficient rain
and subsequent pasture growth. Recovery may only been short lived as
rain has been very scattered and the growing season for pasture is only
viable for a limited time. Considerable destocking is taking place in
the region with cattle numbers at sales in Mareeba and Charters Towers
increasing. Scattered rain has fallen and with high daily temperatures
is causing depreciation of pasture quality and some burning off of green
shoot. In the west there has been a lack of moisture this month and a
visible lack of length and thickness of available species.
West Region: In general the North-West has not received sufficient
rainfall to create a pasture response that will allow stocking rates at
greater than 40% to 50%. The Flinders shire has some new season feed in
the southern half joining Winton shire but this pasture response is
extremely sporadic and varies from property to property. The areas
north of the train line in Flinders, Richmond and McKinlay shires are
continuing to develop reduced pasture quality and quantity. In the
Central-West reports from the Boulia shire indicate that conditions
remain patchy. The Winton shire in general is quite barren but a
triangle from Longreach to Corfield to Aramac has properties with good
pasture growth and quality interspersed with other properties where the
rainfall has failed to create any response in the Mitchell grass. The
Jundah district has sufficient pasture to maintain the reduced stock
numbers forced on district properties that began destocking 18 months
ago and the Blackall stock district has continued to experience
significant pasture reduction. In the South-West, generally the
Cunnamulla and Quilpie stock districts have had insufficient rain to
change the pasture picture. It has been reported that stock owners are
looking to destock rather than feed for a third straight winter. The
northern half of Murweh shire still retains some areas of good quality
pasture. Livestock are still putting on condition and weight but
without follow up rain, winter conditions will impact on livestock
retention numbers in this area as well.
Central Region: Condition of stock is variable. The pasture is of good
quality and quantity where the best of the rain has been, and should
last through to the storm season. There are discrete large areas such
as the Peak Downs shire and the western part of Bauhinia that are very
dry and a number of smaller areas that were on the fringes of the good
rain that are starting to experience dry conditions again.
South-East Region: Condition of stock is improving due to the rain
received. Stock are in strong condition and very good stock sale prices
have been maintained with the increased availability of feed. Many
pastures have been badly affected by army worms, which have stripped
sown and native pastures bare. In areas not affected by army worms, the
quality of the pastures is excellent but there are a large proportion of
weeds in pastures. Quantity of pastures depends on the rainfall
received but generally the quantity of pasture grown will be less than
that needed to carry stock through winter.
South Region: Livestock condition ranges from Score 1 to Score 4, with
animals in the south west areas the poorest. Stock condition is likely
to be maintained until the first frost and the subsequent decline in
pasture quality. There has been considerable destocking over the
extended dry period and many properties are below 30% of normal carrying
capacity. Unless there is further rain, the pasture produced in
February, March and April will potentially provide the only opportunity
until next summer to turn-off stock close to market specifications. The
grass available now is basically all that will be available to stock
until next summer period, but good winter rain will generate winter
herbage in most areas.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Seed harvesting and hay baling continues on the
Tablelands with generally good yields. Peanut harvesting has commenced
with good to high yields despite adverse growing conditions. Potato
planting continues and some of the earlier planted crops are approaching
maturity. Maize crops have started to dry off in preparation for
harvesting. The planting for horticulture crops is continuing in the
Bowen district and the final tobacco crop has generally been planted and
is growing well in the Mareeba area. Some navy bean, watermelon and
pumpkin crops have also been planted. The outlook for banana, papaya and
tropical fruit crops in the Wet Tropics is positive. There has been
some good rain in the Herbert district this month and sugar cane growers
are preparing to plant. On the Tablelands/Mareeba district rainfall for
this growing season has been well below average but sugar cane crops
that have been well irrigated are looking good.
Central Region: Useful rainfall has added to the excellent subsoil
moisture levels in the Dawson Callide and sparked significant winter
crop planting, mainly wheat, particularly in the Dawson Valley. Large
areas of oats have also been sown and further areas of wheat and
chickpeas will be planted if more rain is received, but at this stage
the majority of available country has been sown. There was a
significant outbreak of army worms during April causing replanting of
some recently planted paddocks. Grass paddocks have been the main
target with a subsequent reduction in feed levels. Late planted summer
crops are progressing well with the majority at the grain fill stage.
Army worms were also a problem in the southern Highlands during the
month. In the highlands many of the sorghum and sunflower crops are
suffering from moisture stress, especially where planted on marginal
moisture around Capella and Springsure. Some of these sorghum crops are
being baled for stock feed. The mid February planted sorghum and maize
crops have started grain fill and sunflower crops planted at a similar
time are pollinating. A small area has been planted to wheat and
chickpea over the past month and rainfall is needed to assist in
producing a harvestable yield.
South-East Region: In the South Burnett, the summer cropping situation
varies depending on planting time and rainfall. Many corn crops have
responded well and should have adequate yields. Late planted peanuts
are being harvested. Many growers are considering early winter cereal
planting options in order to generate some early cash flow. Coalstoun
Lakes has had a varied season with some excellent crops. Early peanut
crops are now being pulled and there is a ready demand for peanut hay
into southern New South Wales. Coastal horticulture areas have
continued to benefit from the rain. There has been some crop damage and
disease problems due to the wet weather but replenishment of water
supplies and rain for crops has far outweighed the negative aspects.
South Region: There has been average to above average rain in most of
the cropping areas in the region this year. However, the rain that fell
in April adversely affected summer crop harvest. There has been some
replenishment of subsoil moisture and accordingly there has been
planting activity in the western areas. In the Granite Belt irrigation
water over the summer period has been very low which has adversely
affected horticulture in general. Vegetable growers have reduced
planting areas because of the lack of irrigation water and production is
well down. Army worm invasion has caused extensive damage to pasture
and crops throughout the region.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 598mm (571) Cairns A/P 263mm (224),
Malanda 121mm (174), Ingham 62mm (219), Innisfail 477mm (n/a),
Townsville 20mm (61), Tully 619mm (n/a), Bowen 12mm (n/a), Charters
Towers 19mm (n/a), Georgetown 18mm (35) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a)
Proserpine A/P 62mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (12), Boulia 61mm (14), Windorah 15mm
(22), Cloncurry 26mm (19), Mt Isa 9mm (16), Longreach 6mm (41),
Muttaburra 18mm (37), Winton 16mm (33) and Charleville 4mm (34).
Central Region: Clermont recorded 7mm (43), Alpha 30mm (27), Springsure
15mm (46), Mackay 54mm (154), Yaamba 22mm (53), Biloela A/P 39mm (45),
Mt Larcom 23mm (56), Gladstone 36mm (54), and Theodore 16mm (49).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 45mm (50), Gayndah AP 57mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 35mm (42), Esk 55mm (73), Kilkivan n/a, Kingaroy n/a, Nanango
44mm (57), Proston 38mm (52), and Beaudesert 48mm (82). On the coastal
fringe Bundaberg received 52mm (70), Maryborough 58mm (87), Nambour
183mm (153) and Tewantin 220mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 51mm (52), Dalby 45mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 75mm
(n/a), Inglewood 31mm (48), Oakey 75mm (47), Pittsworth 28mm (47),
Stanthorpe 46mm (58), Toowoomba A/P 60mm (n/a), Warwick 62mm (n/a), Roma
148mm (n/a), Miles 128mm (n/a), St George A/P 31mm (n/a) and Taroom 61mm
(41).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Most areas have water supply with variation depending on
amount of rain. March has provided the bulk of rainfall for the Mareeba
area. Bore supply at this stage seems to be holding but any changes to
subterranean supply after recent rains has yet to be seen.
West Region: Water supplies across the region have been replenished
following the February rains. With the incoming winter period the
pressure and demands for water will be reduced and current levels will
sustain stock.
Central Region: Rainfall was generally very patchy and light for the
month. However, there were some good falls in the upper Dawson.
Streamflow in the Dawson was just enough for two periods of water
harvesting in the middle and near the end of the month.
South-East Region: Northern areas of the region and coastal districts
have all had significant rainfall to run watercourses and fill dams.
Central and southern areas still require significant rainfall to fill
dams and run creeks and rivers.
South Region: Many water storages are severely stressed. Good runoff
rain is required to replenish storage supplies. Water levels in most
groundwater aquifer systems are declining with the main alluvial aquifer
associated with the Condamine River on the Eastern Downs remaining in a
depleted state.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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