SITUATION AS AT 31 AUGUST 2003:
For increased confidence in seasonal conditions improving in the longer
term (through to summer) the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) needs to
return to more positive monthly values. As of 8 September 2003 the 30day
average of the SOI was minus 2.2. The monthly value of the SOI dropped
slightly from the end of July (plus 3.2) through to the end of August
(minus 1.1). Based on this shift in value the SOI is now in a "Near Zero"
(or neutral) phase.
For September to November there is a 30% to 50% probability of getting
above the long term median rainfall for northern, central and western
Queensland. For the south-east quarter of the State, the probability of
getting above the long-term median rainfall for the same period is
marginally higher at 50-60%.
Overall for Queensland the current outlook is a slight improvement on this
time last year. However based on these probabilities this forecast would
not normally be regarded as providing or indicating a high chance of
getting the much needed well above average Queensland wide
'drought-breaking' rain. As always when using any probability based
forecast system, it is important to consider the alternate view. For
example, St George currently has approximately a 70% chance of getting
above 70mm for September to November. This also means that there is a 30%
chance of not getting above 70mm.
It is also worth remembering that September is normally one of the drier
months of the year.
The current rainfall probability maps are available at
www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au
STATE OVERVIEW:
Generally conditions across the State have been mild with limited rainfall.
However, parts of Central Queensland received above average rainfall which
was of benefit to late planted cereal crops. Severe frosts in late
July/early August damaged early planted winter crops in the south,
south-east and central areas of Queensland resulting in some crops being
ploughed in or baled for hay. Condition of stock varies across the State
and destocking has continued in many areas. Pastures have hayed off over
winter and some have been affected by frost. Following recommendations
from the Local Drought Committee, the Minister for Primary Industries and
Rural Communities declared the northern portion of Richmond Shire (that is
the remainder of the shire not covered by the 31 January 2003 declaration)
under State drought processes, effective from 6 August 2003. There are
currently 91 shires and 4 part shires drought declared which represents
65.8% of the land area of the State. There are also 133 Individually
Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 15 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: The season continues in the normal dry winter pattern and
conditions overall have been mild. Rainfall has been limited. Vegetable
production in the Bowen district is starting to wind down with good yields
and low prices being experienced generally this season. Stock owners are
supplementary feeding to varying levels depending on pasture supplies.
West Region: Weather conditions have been mild for this time of the year
and only very isolated rain fell across the region. Stock numbers continue
to decline as sheep and cattle exit the region and market prices have been
buoyant. Lack of pasture bulk is a concern so destocking will continue.
It is estimated that between 80% to 90% of the region will have
insufficient pasture fodder to sustain stocking levels at greater than 30%
to 40% maximum.
Central Region: Above average rainfall was recorded in southern central
and coastal areas during August but trailed off in the northern coastal and
near coastal areas. Frosts severely affected wheat and chickpea crops,
particularly those that were flowering, and as a result, some crops in the
Biloela area were cut for hay. However, the rainfall received will help to
boost the yield potential of crops and add soil moisture for future
cropping opportunities. Harvesting of winter crop in the Central Highlands
has started. Sugar cane yield and CCS remain low.
South-East Region: Dry cold weather and frosts have had detrimental
effects on crops and stock. Some early planted winter crops have been
badly frosted and as a result have been baled for hay. Useful rain has
fallen in coastal areas and in the North Burnett. The Boonah, Beaudesert,
Lockyer Valley and Brisbane Valley districts all received less than average
rainfall and remain extremely dry. Significant rainfall is still needed in
all but near coastal areas to alleviate severe water shortages and low soil
moisture levels.
South Region: The eastern portion of the Darling Downs recorded between
10mm and 25mm of rain during the month and the remainder recorded between
25mm and 50mm. The limited pasture availability has been a concern during
winter and subsequently stock condition has declined. There have been
reports of substantial damage to winter crops in the western Downs and
Maranoa due to the severe frosts of late July and early August. Surface
water storages are low, with little or no inflow over recent months.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Generally across the region livestock condition of breeders
is starting to fall with non-breeders remaining in slightly forward of
store. In the Innisfail area, good rain has occurred and subsequently
stock are performing well. In the rest of the region, destocking continues
as feed availability lessens. Pastures have hayed off and deteriorated in
quality and quantity over the winter period. Winter conditions have been
mild and generally frosts have not had a major effect on pastures.
West Region: In the North-West, with most agistment opportunities taken
and decreasing pasture stubble available in drought declared areas,
properties carrying greater than fifty percent of their normal stocking
rates will possibly have severe fodder problems in late winter/early
spring. However, there are reports of reasonable feed quality and quantity
in parts of the Cloncurry and Flinders Shires. Reports from the Boulia
Shire indicate that conditions remain patchy. Boulia town and the eastern
area remain quite reasonable but the north-western area continues to
struggle. The west and south of the Shire are very patchy, ranging from
very good to poor. Winton Shire remains quite barren and the majority of
properties to the south and east of a line from Aramac to Longreach are
continuing to reduce stock numbers. The Stonehenge district has benefited
with herbage response in the lighter red country, providing reasonable feed
for sheep. The Blackall stock district has largely missed the rain band
and continues to experience deteriorating conditions. West of the Barcoo
River is the worst affected and the majority of properties have totally
destocked or are well below normal capacity. Some light rain was received
in the Murweh and Quilpie shires and this will freshen the mulga where it
is not already dead. The northern half of the Murweh Shire still retains
some areas of good quality pasture and should benefit from the rain band,
freshening the buffel. Generally the Cunnamulla and Quilpie stock
districts have had insufficient rain to change the pasture picture.
Central Region: In the Duaringa/Fitzroy/Livingstone/Mt Morgan/Rockhampton
Shires, the condition of stock varies enormously from score 1 to score 5.
Pasture responded quite well to rainfall earlier in the month on the
country that was already in reasonable winter condition, however, frosts
caused some damage at the end of the month. In the more severely droughted
areas, particularly to the west of the district, little has changed and
destocking is continuing. The condition of stock continues to hold in
reasonable store condition as a result of rainfall received in June which
promoted some green pick in Belyando and the northern part of Peak Downs
Shires. Pasture condition is reasonable considering the season and the
June rainfall effect is particularly evident in the buffel. Generally
stock condition is good and sales are strong in the
Mirani/Broadsound/Sarina/Mackay/Nebo Shires. The Hinterland has been well
frosted. The majority of stock are holding up well in Banana and part
Duaringa Shires. However, numbers are down and supplementary feeding has
been taking place. There is generally a body of feed in most areas but it
is low quality. There is a green tinge around the district with the buffel
responding slightly from earlier rainfall and further response is expected
with warmer weather. Cattle are generally in fair to average condition in
Bauhinia and south-west Emerald Shires for this time of year. This is
largely due to reduced stock numbers and a relatively mild winter to date.
There is considerable variation in the availability of pastures with most
of the district having well below average feed reserves. Pasture shortages
are most predominant in the western and north-eastern areas of the Bauhinia
Shire. However, there are isolated pockets of the Arcadia Valley/Carnarvon
Ranges that have good to excellent pasture reserves. Recent rain
accompanied by relatively mild weather conditions, has produced some useful
green pick in many areas.
South-East Region: The majority of stock in the region are still in strong
condition, but in southern areas condition is slowly deteriorating with the
dry conditions. The situation in coastal areas is far better with stock in
store to forward store condition and inland areas in the north of the
region have stock in strong store to forward store condition. Sale prices
for all stock have continued to increase during the month. While heavy
frosts have affected the quality of pastures, areas that have received good
rainfall now have some green pick available for stock. In the southern
area around Boonah, pastures remain dry with pasture bulk decreasing
rapidly. In coastal areas pastures have stood up to winter much better and
the recent rain has allowed the grass to shoot. Areas with large bodies of
dry feed have deteriorated in quality but this will not be a problem if
rainfall continues.
South Region: Livestock condition ranges from score 1 to score 4. Animals
in the south-west areas are the poorest. Frosts have affected pasture
quality and resulted in a decline in stock condition. There has been
continued high saleyard numbers. Cattle prices rose towards the end of the
month reflecting a decline in numbers of suitably conditioned animals. The
previous summer rain in general did not produce sufficient pasture to carry
average stocking rates over winter and frosts have further increased the
need for supplementary feeding. There has been winter herbage produced in
the higher rainfall areas of the Downs and Maranoa but the warmer weather
from now on will restrict growth. The south-western area has the lowest
supplies of feed.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: The season has been favourable in the Bowen area and there
have been good yields of tomatoes, capsicums, sweet corn and beans. A few
melon crops have been planted but generally the cropping season is starting
to wind down for the summer. On the Atherton Tablelands, the potato
harvest continues and yields have improved on earlier crops. Prices have
generally been good. In the Dimbulah area the tobacco harvest has
generally finished and the majority of crops in the Mareeba area are on
their second pick. Yields have been good. In the wet tropics banana
production has been good and the mild winter has reduced winter spot in paw
paw crops, which has resulted in more saleable fruit. Harvesting of sugar
cane continues in all districts across the north with limited interruptions
due to rain. In the Herbert district the crush continues and cane quality
is fair. South and west of Ingham remains very dry and the cane crop is
badly drought affected in these areas. Plant cane in these areas has had
good germination but ratoon crops are at a critical stage and require rain
within the next month. The crop is currently being cut in the Burdekin and
estimates indicate it will be a record crop. Growth of plant and ratoon
cane has been good. Harvesting is progressing well on the Tablelands and
crops have generally improved on last year's average tonnes per hectare.
Central Region: In the Dawson/Callide, some wheat crops have been cut for
hay as a result of severe frost damage. The late-planted crops have not
been affected by the cold weather. Some chickpea crops also suffered
significant frost damage and some have been ploughed in where there was
insufficient soil moisture for them to set more flowers. Rainfall during
August was of great benefit to late planted winter cereal crops. It also
sparked some planting activity with some fallow paddocks planted to Spring
sorghum crops. As soil temperatures continue to rise, there may be small
areas of mungbean, millet and sorghum planted. There is optimism that
there will be an increase in the area of irrigated cotton this season
following improvements in the cotton price and availability of irrigation
water. There were widespread showers in the Central Highlands during the
month and this was beneficial for both the flowering and growing of wheat
and chickpeas. However, frosts caused damage to both these crops as large
areas were flowering at the time. Harvest started in the last week of
August with yields expected to be extremely low reflecting the marginal
winter season. The rain has encouraged farmers to start planting Spring
crops, particularly sorghum.
South-East Region: Many growers have planted large areas of early winter
crop and in the Lockyer Valley larger areas than normal of broadacre winter
crop have been planted due to water shortages for intensive crops. Severe
frosts have damaged some wheat crops that were between ear emergence stage
and flowering resulting in some being baled for hay. Green bean growers
in the Gympie area and strawberry growers in the Sunshine Coast hinterland
have progressed well with their winter production. Macadamia orchards on
the Sunshine Coast are flowering indicating that trees are recovering from
last year's dry period and growers are hoping this will translate into good
fruit set. However, there are still concerns that trees which have been
drought stressed may suffer high levels of early fruit drop and will take
longer than one season to recover to their full potential. In the Gatton
area, dry conditions continue and the severe frosts of the month may have
an effect on production of lettuce and potatoes. Water is a continuing
problem for the area as bore levels keep falling. In the
Gayndah/Mundubbera district the citrus harvest is continuing but generally
prices have been unfavourable.
South Region: Early planted crops of wheat, barley and chickpeas
experienced substantial frost damage, especially in the western part of the
region. The St George district received sufficient rain in June to allow
winter crop planting on a large scale and this late planted crop has been
less affected by frost. Damaged wheat and barley crops have been cut for
silage or hay production. The lack of irrigation water is a concern for
irrigators in the Border Rivers area. There has been some concern with
mice north-east of Dalby. The limited water availability in the Granite
Belt has reduced new plantings of trees and vegetables.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 47mm (103) Cairns A/P 13mm (22), Malanda
14mm (39), Ingham 38mm (37), Innisfail 89mm (n/a), Townsville 7mm (14),
Tully 49mm (n/a), Bowen 0.0mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a),
Georgetown 0.0mm (3) and Normanton A/P 0.2mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 16mm
(n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (10), Boulia 6mm (8), Windorah 15mm (9),
Cloncurry 18mm (n/a), Mt Isa 16mm (5), Longreach 6mm (14), Muttaburra 13mm
(13), Winton 16mm (6) and Charleville 30mm (22).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 18mm (22), Clermont 44mm (21), Springsure
37mm (26), Mackay 18mm (29), Yaamba 22mm (26), Biloela A/P 81mm (27), Mt
Larcom 58mm (36), Gladstone 132mm (32), and Theodore 45mm (31).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 55mm (34), Gayndah AP 46mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 58mm (34), Esk 10mm (35), Kilkivan 35mm (39), Kingaroy 36mm
(n/a), Nanango 29mm (40), Proston 30mm (35), and Beaudesert 3mm (43). On
the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 40mm (38), Maryborough 51mm (45),
Nambour 99mm (57) and Tewantin 64mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 3mm (38), Dalby 22mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 19mm (n/a),
Inglewood 11mm (37), Oakey 14mm (30), Pittsworth 20mm (40), Stanthorpe 13mm
(48), Toowoomba A/P 20mm (n/a), Warwick 12mm (n/a), Roma 37mm (n/a), Miles
53mm (n/a), St George A/P 34mm (n/a) and Taroom 66mm (31).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Surface water storage supplies are extremely low in the
Mareeba/Normanton areas and limited around Charters Towers/Bowen. Bore
supply is adequate.
West Region: Reports are being received that some property surface
storages are experiencing shortages and carting is in progress. Areas of
concern are the northern Tambo, western Isisford and western Blackall
areas. Rivers and watercourses have sufficient storages in waterholes.
Central Region: Rain during August was above average in most areas -
fairly widespread but too light to generate anything but small stream
flows. Many streams are experiencing only recession flows, similar to last
month. Without further runoff, stream flows can be expected to be well
below mean and median.
South-East Region: Central and southern areas still require significant
rainfall to fill dams and run creeks and rivers. Water supplies in the
south east corner remain a major problem. Farm dams in the Boonah shire are
near empty or are already dry and major water storages such as Moogerah Dam
and Maroon Dam are very low. There have been no stream flows on regulated
or unregulated streams. In the Mary Valley irrigation and stock water
supplies have deteriorated slightly with the majority of farms being in a
significantly better position than this time last year. Borumba Dam is at
50% capacity but irrigators are still under restriction.
South Region: Many water storages are severely stressed. Good runoff rain
is required to replenish storage supplies.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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