SITUATION AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2003:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose in value from the end of November
(minus 2.4) through to the end of December (plus 9). However the rise in
SOI values has had only slight effects on rainfall prospects for
Queensland. Highest rainfall probability values now exist in the northern
tropics and in central western border areas. In these areas there is now a
60% to 70% chance of exceeding median rainfall for the January to March
period 2004. For most of the rest of Queensland, forecast conditions
remain mixed with a 50/50 chance of receiving above median rainfall for
January to March. The lowest rainfall probabilities can be found in the far
south west of the State where there is only a 20%-40% chance of getting
above median rain. For example Thargomindah has a 29% chance of getting
above its long term January to March median rainfall of 85mm. It's worth
remembering that this forecast does not suggest or indicate the potential
distribution or expected timing of rainfall over this period. The forecast
is for the full 3 month period and does not suggest that expected rain will
fall evenly across these three months. The last passage of the Madden
Julian Oscillation (MJO) influenced our weather in late December. It helped
produce some useful but patchy rainfall mainly across eastern Queensland
(with much of south west and central Queensland missing out). If its timing
remains current it would next be expected in late January/early February.
It will be interesting to see what effect the MJO will have when it is next
expected. Research has shown that in summer the MJO can intensify the
monsoon season as well as help trigger cyclones if there are any existing
low-pressure systems in the Coral Sea.
The latest information sourced from the United States Climate Prediction
Centre www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
www.bom.gov.au/ highlights that a neutral sea temperature pattern continues
to persist in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, continuing re-warming
of sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific and the return of strong
westerly wind bursts to this region have highlighted the potential for 'El
Nino-like' conditions to develop next winter if these trends continue for
the next few months. As this is still some time away and conditions can
change, patterns along the equator in the Pacific will be monitored on a
monthly basis to determine what impact, if any, ongoing changes may have on
the seasonal outlook. As part of the DPI's response to these changes, we
have initiated an "El Nino watch" and will regularly monitor any
developments in the Pacific and pass on this information as it becomes
relevant.
STATE OVERVIEW:
There was useful widespread rainfall across some parts of the State during
December but dry conditions still persist in many areas. This rainfall has
allowed planting of summer crops but more rain is required in some areas
for a more widespread planting. There were severe hailstorms reported in
the Rosedale/Winfield area in early December. Livestock condition is
varied depending on location and rainfall. Pastures have generally
responded well to rainfall but quality and quantity remains extremely low
in western areas. There are currently 95 shires and 4 part shires drought
declared under State processes which represents 66.5% of the land area of
the State. There are also 127 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in
a further 15 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: There were some useful falls of rain across the region but
it was patchy and left some areas with little to no moisture retention.
The Wet Tropics area has received good falls of rain throughout the latter
part of the month. All paddocks are lush with pasture and most streams
have run. Maize and peanut crops have been planted on the Atherton
Tablelands after rainfall in the middle of the month.
West Region: There has not been any break to the current dry to date.
Some rainfall has been reported across the region with recordings ranging
from 116mm to 11mm. The average fall from the selected stations was 41mm
and will not break the current drought conditions. Colour change is the
only way to describe the responses and without follow-up rain this new
growth is burning off. Pre-Christmas temperatures exceeded 43c for about a
week.
Central Region: There has been some excellent rain in the region in
December with up to 250mm in some places in the Banana Shire. However, it
was storm rain and although widespread there are still properties scattered
through the area that received practically nothing. The rainfall on the
cultivations in the Peak Downs Shire was detrimental causing severe washing
of topsoil and very little moisture profile due to the heavy nature of the
rain. Numbers at the Moura cattle sale have dropped off since the rain and
the next sale is not until early January.
South-East Region: Rainfall was extremely varied throughout the month.
Some districts have received beneficial rainfall with minor inflows into
dams and watercourses. Dry conditions still persist in many areas with
some cropping localities still waiting to plant. Significant rainfall is
still needed in all but near coastal areas to alleviate dry conditions and
replenish major water storages and farm dams.
South Region: The highest rainfall for the month was recorded in the
eastern half of the region with falls of 100mm to 175mm. About 50mm to
60mm was received throughout the Maranoa. The limited pasture availability
is likely to continue as pasture growth models for the December to February
period show a low chance of achieving above median pasture yield for the
region.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Atherton and Eacham Shires have responded well to recent
rainfall with a good body of green feed building up. There has only been a
moderate freshening up of the feed in Herberton Shire. Cattle condition
will improve as there has been a slight relief on grazing pressures since
the storms on the Tablelands. In the Georgetown and surrounding areas
there have been patchy falls that have provided some relief with ground
waters, but feed conditions are poor and this is reflected by cattle
condition. Pastures are lush in the Wet Tropics in response to recent
rain. The abattoir at Innisfail closed early in the month and will reopen
depending upon the coming wet. Store sales are bringing good prices. In
the Bowen district some areas responded to rain very rapidly but only the
properties that received some follow-up falls have experienced continued
pasture growth. The hot dry northerly winds sucked a lot of the moisture
from the pastures. Some properties are still denuded of pasture especially
in the Guthalungra/Gumlu areas. Livestock conditions ranges from score 1
to 5 depending on location, rainfall and management factors. Approximately
half of properties in this area are feeding drought supplementation to
breeding animals with high nutritive needs.
West Region: No significant break has been received in the North West and
recent rainfall will not promote any response in the Mitchell Downs
country. Significantly more follow-up is needed to saturate this country
and provide new growth. Pasture quality and quantity remains extremely
low. Livestock movements have slowed in line with market closures. In the
Central West rainfall ranging from 19mm at Muttaburra to 80mm at Barcaldine
has produced a response in pastures, but if follow-up rains are not
received very soon, all benefit will be lost. Rainfall totals in the South
West have produced a small start to pasture growth across most of the areas
but much more is needed to ensure that it continues.
Central Region: In the Belyando and northern Peak Downs stock districts,
stock are in medium store condition with some breeders in a less than
favourable condition. Pastures have responded exceptionally to the
rainfall across the entire Belyando Shire and northern half of Peak Downs
with some of this area not having any useable pastures for the past three
years. Although scouring a little at present due to the lush feed about,
most stock in the Banana and Calliope shires are clean coated and
responding well to improved nutrition. The countryside here is vivid green
with lush pastures that have responded to the humidity and warmth following
the recent excellent rain event. In the north west Banana and south
Duaringa shires, stock are holding on well with the majority being just
below average in condition, which is due to the low numbers of stock and
supplementary feeding. Most stock should improve over the next month where
the rain has fallen as a response in pasture can be seen already. Areas
that missed out will struggle a bit especially where there are cows
calving. Pasture here is dry and of little nutritive value.
South-East Region: The majority of stock in the region are now improving
in condition with the availability of short green feed. In the
Boonah/Beaudesert area, poor stock are now responding to the rejuvenated
pastures and many animals are now in store to forward store condition.
There has been good response to rain in the Cooloola district. In the
South Burnett, most breeders are in good order with dry stock in very good
order, while in the Central and North Burnett, most stock are in fair
condition, though this varies with the patchy season. Saleyard prices
have maintained fair levels and there has been some restocking in all
areas. Most areas have now had some respite from feeding stock. The hot
dry conditions of the month have dried off feed and diminished feed
quality. Areas that have had significant rainfall now have adequate
pasture growth for the short term.
South Region: Cattle markets are good despite dry conditions in western
areas and livestock condition ranges from score 1 to score 4. The high
sheep meat prices are due to a limited supply of slaughter stock. The
previous summer rain in general did not produce sufficient pasture to carry
average stocking rates over winter. There has only been a limited amount
of summer pasture response to rain over recent months. Recent rain in the
Stanthorpe, Miles and Dalby areas has generated some useful pasture growth
but widespread follow-up rain will be crucial for any substantial
production.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: There were planting rains on the Atherton Tableland in the
middle of the month and most peanut and maize crops have been planted.
Maize and sorghum production areas south of Mt Garnet have only received
light rainfall, sufficient for some grass growth but not enough for
planting.
Central Region: The Central Highlands experienced some good falls of rain
with some areas recording up to 300mm. This rainfall was widespread but
measured totals varied considerably. This has resulted in some summer
crop planting, mainly sorghum, although generally more rain is required for
a widespread planting. There was some good, but patchy, rain in the
Dawson/Callide during the month with most parts receiving at least
100-125mm. The rain has seen widespread planting of sorghum and mungbeans
with any available fallow ground planted early in the month. By the end of
the month some of the winter crop area was being double cropped although
there is only a small area of this planted. Double cropping into wheat
stubble may occur if further rainfall is received. Spring sorghum crops
are nearing maturity.
South-East Region: Millet, sunflowers and corn have been planted with soil
moisture levels changing from day to day due to the variable weather
conditions. Some crops such as peanuts have been planted well outside the
normal planting window. Dry conditions in some areas are affecting newly
established crops with reports of heat damage to some corn crops.
South Region: On the Darling Downs subsoil moisture is reasonable,
particularly where there was stubble cover over the winter fallow. Maize
and soybeans have been planted with a fairly large area of sorghum planted
following rain in late October. Summer crop planting in the Western
Downs/Maranoa commenced after the good rain earlier in the month. There
has been replenishment of surface storages in the Stanthorpe Shire that has
improved the outlook for vegetable and fruit crops.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 488mm (331) Cairns A/P 195mm (190), Malanda
250mm (146), Ingham 241mm (217), Innisfail 494mm (n/a), Townsville 87mm
(148), Tully 369mm (n/a), Bowen 52mm (n/a), Charters Towers 99mm (n/a),
Georgetown 174mm (112) and Normanton A/P 192mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 141mm
(n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P 16mm (n/a), Boulia 49mm (28), Windorah 4mm
(27), Cloncurry 74mm (58), Mt Isa 117mm (62), Longreach 35mm (51),
Muttaburra 19mm (59), Winton 46mm (51) and Charleville 44mm (53).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 63mm (85), Clermont 158mm (101), Springsure
67mm (107), Mackay 118mm (197), Yaamba 164mm (131), Biloela A/P 205mm
(102), Mt Larcom 216mm (150), Gladstone 206mm (140), and Theodore 103mm
(102).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 99mm (86), Gayndah AP 112mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 148mm (100), Esk 101mm (111), Kilkivan 141mm (124), Kingaroy
70mm (n/a), Nanango 62mm (108), Proston 5mm (108), and Beaudesert 122mm
(128). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 162mm (138), Maryborough
156mm (134), Nambour 184mm (180) and Tewantin 179mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 140mm (109), Dalby 171mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 136mm
(n/a), Inglewood 22mm (86), Oakey 123mm (93), Pittsworth 158mm (104),
Stanthorpe 102mm (93), Toowoomba A/P 119mm (n/a), Warwick 91mm (n/a), Roma
50mm (n/a), Miles 112mm (n/a), St George A/P 106mm (n/a) and Taroom 38mm
(104).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Surface and underground supplies appear to be adequate in
the Bowen district. Some very isolated patches have limited supplies of
surface water. There was some good rain in late December on the Atherton
Tablelands but follow-up rain is required to provide runoff into dams and
storages.
West Region: Reports are being received that some property surface
storages are experiencing shortages and carting is in progress. Areas of
concern are the Northern Tambo, Western Isisford and Western Blackall
areas. Although the Barcoo River recorded a flow at below minor flood
level, reserves in other rivers and watercourses have significantly
receded.
Central Region: The Theresa Creek Dam at Clermont is full and the Capella
town storage had its first inflow in four years. There was minor
flooding across Banana and Calliope shires and this has resulted in many
creek and river systems and property storage facilities being full or close
to it.
South East Region: There has been replenishment of some farm dams due to
storm rainfall across the region and flows in a minority of streams.
Significant rainfall is still needed in all areas. For horticultural
enterprises, rainfall in the Nambour district has been adequate. There has
been very little rain from storms in the Bundaberg area and water supplies
remain low across the whole district. In the Gatton district there have
been useful falls of rain but nothing significant to change the water
situation.
South Region: Rain has produced useful flows in many rivers and creeks
that have partly or completely replenished depleted stock and domestic
supplies around the region. Although rainfall has eased the requirements
for groundwater use, restrictions are still heavily in place throughout the
Warwick and Toowoomba areas to maintain levels of this resource.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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