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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK

The 30 day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as of 3 March 2003 is minus 8.4. Based on the shift in monthly SOI value from January (minus 2) to February (minus 9.3) the SOI is in a "Rapidly Falling" phase. This gives a mixed seasonal outlook across Queensland for the next three months (for March to May). There has been a slight lift in the chance of getting above median rainfall for the Queensland/New South Wales border region west of Goondiwindi. However for the rest of the State the chance of above median rainfall for the same period has fallen slightly.

For example, there is a 60% chance of getting above the long term March to May median rainfall of 95mm at Bollon. This compares with a low 33% chance of getting above long term median rainfall of 68mm for the same period at Winton. While the seasonal outlook does indicate the potential for continuing relief rain there remains only a relatively low chance of getting the widespread well above average rainfall events needed to break the Queensland drought pattern. As always when dealing with a probability based forecast system it is important to consider the alternate view. For example, currently there is a 22% chance of getting above 140mm at Charters Towers. This also means there is a 78% chance of not getting above 140mm. Another way of looking at this is that in 2 years out of 10 (or around one quarter) with the current SOI pattern, Charters Towers has received more than 140mm for March to May. Therefore in 8 years out of 10 (or around three quarters) with the current SOI pattern, less than 140mm has been recorded at Charters Towers.

An El Nino pattern is still persisting in the central Pacific. While there is increasing optimism that this pattern is breaking down, all indications suggest that it will linger through to mid/late autumn.

STATE OVERVIEW

There was significant rainfall in coastal areas as a result of cyclone Beni at the beginning of February and further significant falls in parts of the State later in the month. However, rainfall was patchy and some areas have missed out. Generally pasture response has been good. The cropping outlook has improved with increased subsoil moisture profiles and has allowed some growers to plant a late crop. Following recommendations from the local drought committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Rural Communities drought declared under state processes the shires of Barcaldine, Biggenden, Blackall, that part of Dalrymple shire south of the Flinders Highway, Ilfracombe, Isisford, Murweh, Tambo and Woocoo effective 1 February 2003. There are now 89 shires and 6 part shires drought declared which represents approximately 63.8% of the State. There are also 297 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 18 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES

North Region: The wet season finally arrived this month with general rain in coastal and inland parts of the region. The northern coastal area from Ingham to the Peninsula recorded well below average February rainfall. Generally crops in this area are in reasonable condition as the rain received has been adequate for growth. The Gulf also received below average February rainfall but good falls earlier in the season alleviated any problems. In the extensive grazing areas the rain has given graziers a respite from drought feeding. In the drought declared areas of Bowen, Whitsunday and southern part of the Dalrymple shire, the rain has been widespread and plentiful with falls in excess of 400mm for the month in the Bowen area. This rain caused minor flooding and replenished many surface water supplies in the region. Pasture response has been good but growth may be limited due to the lateness in the season.

West Region: Scattered relief rainfall caused minor flooding in some areas during the month, however other areas missed out on any productive rainfall and accordingly conditions continue to deteriorate particularly around Cunnamulla and in the far south west. In some of the Mitchell Grass areas, pastures have failed to respond to the recent rainfall and it would appear that many of these tussocks have died. This will mean these pastures will need to regenerate from seed and care will need to be taken to ensure that producers do not overgraze these sensitive areas until these pastures have had adequate time to re-establish.

Central Region: Excellent rainfall was received across many parts of Central Queensland during February although some areas in the Central Highlands missed out on these storms and still desperately need rain. Conditions will improve dramatically as a result of the rain, with pasture and stock condition improving in the medium term. The cropping outlook has improved with many farmers in the Dawson/Callide planting late summer crop. Rain was patchier in the Central Highlands so growers are either storing moisture for winter crop, or planting maize, sunflowers or late sorghum. Although some cane crops have died and will be ploughed out, the rain has been a late but much needed start to the wet season and will have saved many crops. Further runoff rainfall is needed to fill irrigation storages in the region.

South-East Region: February rainfall was average or well above average for the region. Significant falls in the North Burnett and coastal areas have dramatically changed the outlook with many areas having dams filled and creeks and rivers running. Major flows in the Burnett and Kolan Rivers have markedly improved prospects for Bundaberg irrigators. Areas in the south of the region received average rainfall and significant follow-up rainfall is still needed to fill dams and run watercourses.

South Region: February recorded the best general rain for this summer. Pasture responded well, however, given the timing of the rain there may be insufficient quantity generated to carry stock over the winter. Stock condition deteriorated in the western zone as animals chased the green pick. Summer crop plantings are down but the crops that were sown benefited from recent rain. Subsoil moisture profiles improved on the Downs and some oats have been planted in response to rain and soil temperatures falling. Critically low irrigation supplies have adversely affected fruit, wine grapes and vegetable production.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Generally across the region livestock condition has improved with the onset of green grass after recent rains. Recovery may only be short lived if the rain ceases, as the growing season for pasture is only viable for a couple more months. Stock are in fair to good condition in most areas although those areas that have only received minor relief will need further rainfall to generate pasture quantity and quality sufficient to take stock through the winter and spring period.

West Region: Pasture condition in those areas that have received useful rainfall continues to improve with the exception of some of the "Downs Country" between Winton and Longreach where much of the Mitchell Grass has failed to respond. Whilst the softer annual grasses have responded well to rainfall the lack of response in the Mitchell Grass could mean that these areas may be short of productive feed later in the year when the annual species have died out or been grazed off. During the month, fodder drops were carried out on a number of properties in the Tambo area to provide fodder to weak stock that had become bogged to heavy rainfall. Generally, it is a mixed bag across much of the region with initial rainfall or follow up falls required during March to ensure that the drought doesn't continue into the winter of 2003.

Central Region: Useful rainfall was recorded across much of the region during the month and this resulted in flooding in the Wowan, Baralaba, Westwood and St Lawrence areas. Pasture condition has improved in most areas and this has resulted in a corresponding improvement in the condition of livestock. Producers in the region are electing to hold animals from market in an effort to begin the herd re-building process and this has forced the abattoir in Rockhampton to close due to lack of slaughter animals. Despite the good rainfall it further follow up falls are needed in many areas to secure pasture and water supplies for the winter/spring period.

South-East Region: Condition of stock is now picking up very well due to the rain received. Stock sale prices have increased across all types with the increased availability of feed. There is still a shortage of well finished stock for the local and export trade and this will continue until pastures recover. In the majority of districts, drought feeding has now finished but some producers have had to continue as they wait for pastures to build up enough bulk. The rainfall across the region has allowed pastures to green up and start growing but due to the long period of dry conditions the response has been slow. Quality of pastures is excellent. Quantity depends on the rainfall received.

South Region: Livestock condition ranges from score 1 to score 3. The rain will improve the quality of the pasture and ultimately stock condition in areas of better rainfall. However, further stock losses could occur where drought weakened stock chase the short, green, high-moisture growth that is difficult for cattle to consume. Because rainfall was patchy, pasture response has varied but has generally deteriorated to a point where recovery will be delayed even with relief rain.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: Rainfall on the Tablelands has been widespread but variable in its intensity. Land preparation for potatoes has commenced and some crops have been planted. Maize crops range from good to stressed, depending on how and when the rain fell. Some growers are preparing to plant vegetable crops in the Bowen district after good rain. Overall in the Burdekin district the sugar cane crop is looking good and a large harvest is anticipated. Crops which were struggling at the end of last month in the southern part of the Herbert district have improved, and the crop is looking reasonable in the Innisfail/Tully and Mossman/Mulgrave districts despite below average rainfall.

Central Region: There was variable rain over the cropping areas in the Highlands in early February and further rain later in the month. Growers in each district have responded differently with some planting late sorghum, planting sunflowers and/or maize, and some continuing to fallow their ground to a winter crop of either wheat or chickpeas while others are opting for a combination of all three to spread the risk. This late rain may prompt some of the growers in the Clermont/Kilcummin districts to plant early wheat but with associated risks of high early temperatures, frost and the possibility of Long Fallow Disorder. Rainfall totals of up to 400mm have been recorded in the Dawson/Callide and have filled soil moisture profiles, rejuvenated failing pastures, overflowed farm dams and provided some replenishment of underground water supplies. Many grain growers have taken the opportunity to plant late summer crops, and a large area of forage crops has also been sown.

South-East Region: The summer cropping situation has dramatically improved with the recent rain in the South Burnett, however, in spite of this most crops will have their yield potential severely restricted. The rain has come too late for most crops in the Kumbia district. Peanuts were generally planted late and have had a poor start to the season and corn crops now have low plant numbers which impacts on final yields. Coalstoun Lakes has had a varied season. Some sorghum has been baled for hay and other crops of sorghum are due to be harvested. Early peanut crops have been hard hit by the dry weather but later crops may be able to produce a passable yield. Coastal horticulture areas have benefited from the rain. There have been some crop damage and disease problems due to the wet weather but replenishment of water supplies and rain for crops have far outweighed the negative aspects.

South Region: The rain will allow late-planted grain sorghum crops to reach harvest and increase forage crop production. It provided sub soil moisture that could be beneficial to oats for an early March planting when the soil temperature cools enough for germination and early growth. Follow up rainfall in Roma district is required to fill profiles and ensure any possibility of winter crop. Irrigation water is extremely low in the Granite Belt. Vegetable growers have reduced planting areas and production of capsicum, broccoli, cauliflower and tomatoes is well down. The stone fruit harvest has concluded and wine grapes have experienced loss in production.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 338mm (738) Cairns A/P 202mm (422), Malanda 226mm (286), Ingham 211mm (410), Innisfail 256mm (n/a), Townsville 305mm (232), Tully 215mm (n/a), Bowen 431mm (n/a), Charters Towers 189mm (n/a), Georgetown 189mm (208) and Normanton A/P 170mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 319mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (21), Boulia 110mm (41), Windorah 133mm (45), Cloncurry 233mm (97), Mt Isa 99mm (86), Longreach 154mm (69), Muttaburra 249mm (71), Winton 137mm (80) and Charleville 84mm (55).

Central Region: Clermont recorded 322mm (104), Alpha 176mm (81), Springsure 136mm (113), Mackay 501mm (302), Yaamba 357mm (127), Biloela A/P 306mm (83), Mt Larcom 492mm (129), Gladstone 646mm (140), and Theodore 208mm (90).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 297mm (81), Gayndah 103mm (87), Mundubbera 145mm (74), Esk 176mm (100), Kilkivan 250mm (94), Kingaroy 157mm (n/a), Nanango 150mm (86), Proston 128 (77), and Beaudesert 119mm (109). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 421mm (128), Maryborough 346mm (163), Nambour 636mm (224) and Tewantin 430mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 94mm (87), Dalby 95mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 40mm (n/a), Inglewood 138mm (68), Oakey 108mm (84), Pittsworth 149mm (76), Stanthorpe 155mm (82), Toowoomba A/P 145mm (n/a), Warwick 88mm (n/a), Roma 129mm (n/a), Miles 124mm (n/a), St George A/P 47mm (n/a) and Taroom 104mm (76).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

The latest Water Storage Report from SunWater is attached.

North Region: Stock water supplies are adequate in the Malanda and Innisfail districts and most creeks have run. In the Normanton, Georgetown and Malanda districts no major rivers or creeks have flooded and some dams and swamps remain dry or not full. Most areas in the Charters Towers district have received some runoff for surface supply with variation depending on the amount of rain. Some dams that were dry have taken on silt from surface runoff. The bore supply at this stage seems to be holding but any changes to subterranean supply after recent rains has yet to be seen. Surface water and bore supply are adequate in the Townsville district. All streams in the Bowen district are running and surface water does not pose a problem. It is too early to know the extent of any replenishment to underground aquifers after the rains.

West Region: Minor flooding has replenished water storages along many regional streams. In some areas farm dams have also been topped up where there has been sufficient rainfall to generate runoff.

Central Region: Flooding rains during the month have alleviated surface the water shortages in most areas however follow up falls will be required in those areas where only limited runoff occurred. Whilst there has been some minor recharge of alluvial aquifer further prolonged rainfall is required to alleviate long-term water shortages in some of the major catchments and in many of the regions underground supplies.

South-East Region: Northern areas of the region and coastal districts have all had significant rainfall to run watercourses and fill dams. Central and southern areas still require significant rainfall to fill dams and run creeks and rivers. South Region: Many water storages are severely stressed. Good runoff rain is required to replenish storage supplies.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.