SITUATION AS AT 31 JANUARY 2003
OUTLOOK:
The monthly SOI value rose from minus 13.2 for December to minus 2.0 for
January. Based on the shift in value the SOI is in a "Rapidly Rising"
phase. Therefore there is a 50-70% chance of getting above the long term
February to April median rainfall in the strip running from the north
west of the state to the central west and for small areas along the
coast. Rainfall probabilities across the rest of Queensland though, are
lower at around 30-50%. For example, there is a 60% chance of getting
above the long term February to April median rainfall of 137mm at
Winton. This compares with a 38% chance of getting above the long term
February to April median rainfall of 246 mm at Nebo. While the current
probabilities do indicate the potential for some relief rain
unfortunately there remains only a relatively low chance of getting
those big, widespread well above average rainfall events needed to break
the current drought pattern. When dealing with probability based
forecasts it is important to consider the additional information
provided. For example, based on the recent pattern of the SOI there is a
70% chance of getting above 130mm at Dalby on the eastern Darling Downs
for February to April. Therefore there is a 30% chance of not getting
130mm. Another way of looking at this is that in 7 years out of 10 (or
just under three quarters of years) with the current SOI pattern, Dalby
has received more than 130mm in February to April. Therefore in 3 years
out of 10 (or just over one quarter of years) with the current SOI
pattern, less than 130mm has been recorded at Dalby for February to
April. As rainfall probabilities and median rainfall levels vary from
location to location, we recommend referring to Australian Rainman for
more specific rainfall data. Alternatively feel free to contact the DPI
Call Centre on 13 25 23 for further information.
STATE OVERVIEW:
There has been some relief rain in the far north and parts of the north
west. However, rainfall was generally below average across the State,
affecting all primary industries. Pasture response has been severely
restricted and feeding of stock continues with some fodder becoming
difficult to source. Summer crop plantings are down and yield potential
for crops is generally very low. Following recommendations from the
Local Drought Committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Rural
Communities declared under state drought processes a shire declaration
for the shires of Aramac, Atherton, Bauhinia, that part of Belyando
shire not covered by the 12/11/2002 declaration, that part of Boulia
shire east of the Diamantina Development Road and south of the Donohue
Highway, Bowen, Eacham, Emerald, Herberton, Jericho, Longreach,
Whitsunday and Winton effective 01 January 2003. Those parts of
Flinders, McKinlay and Richmond shires south of the Flinders Highway
were declared effective 31 January 2003. Barcaldine, Blackall, that
part of Dalrymple shire south of the Flinders Highway, Ilfracombe,
Isisford, Murweh and Tambo shires were declared effective 01 February
2003. There are now 86 shires and 6 part shires drought declared which
represents approximately 63.7% of the State. There are also 281
Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 19 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: Some of the North Region, mainly northern areas, has
received very good relief rain. Pasture growth has responded but will
require follow-up falls very quickly to prevent burn off of green pick.
However a fair proportion of the region remains dry. Tableland shires
have benefited greatly from January rainfall. Meatworks have commenced
operations again and live export continues apace with several shipments
from Townsville during the month.
West Region: Effective rainfall was restricted to areas in the
north-west of the region surrounding Cloncurry and Mt Isa. Areas
outside of the drought declared areas continue to deteriorate very
rapidly. Feeding continues at an intensive rate and some fodder types
are becoming difficult to source. As markets re-open, stock are being
forced onto the market as a result of feed supplies tightening and costs
continuing to rise.
Central Region: Rainfall was extremely low compared to historical
records across Central Queensland but isolated storm rain was recorded
in some areas. Conditions in the region continue to deteriorate in
general terms. Pasture and stock condition continue to decline and
water resources are also being depleted due to little recent re-charge,
continued use and higher evaporation rates with hot summer conditions.
The cropping outlook is very poor with little or no moisture in the soil
profile. The planting window for sorghum is rapidly closing and
100-175mm of rain will be needed to provide a planting opportunity for
sunflowers and maize. The sugar crop is facing further severe
production impacts if rain is not forthcoming soon.
South-East Region: January rainfall was below average or at record lows
for the month across the region. The drought conditions have continued
to cause major problems for all industries. Water supplies are very low
with dams dry and bores becoming unreliable. Feed supplies for all
classes of livestock are in short supply and expensive. Yield potential
of broadacre crops and horticultural crops is very low.
South Region: Rainfall for January was well below average and the
summer months in general have been hot and dry. Pasture response has
been severely restricted and stock condition has deteriorated. Water
storages are extremely low in most areas. Summer crop plantings are
down from normal and dryland crops are showing signs of drought stress.
Throughout the Granite Belt, critically low irrigation supplies have
adversely affected fruit, wine grapes and vegetable production. All
shires in the region are now drought declared.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Fodder supplies are reasonable and fresh and stock are
starting to improve in the Normanton Stock District. Croyden Shire has
not had the same rainfall as Carpentaria/Burke and is still showing dry
areas with urgent need of follow-up falls to keep the green pick.
Stock range through all scores and wet cows are in low condition. Fires
have ravaged Etheridge Shire. Scattered rain fell in Bowen Stock
District but has had little impact on relieving the dry conditions. The
whole district has very little pasture remaining and what is left is of
negligible quality. All stock are being drought fed. Pasture condition
in most areas of the Charters Towers Stock District is very denuded with
some response to latest rain but the shoot is marginal. Stock condition
is at store to backward store and breeders are slipping. There have
been reports of significant losses of stock in the Mareeba Stock
District but this has abated with the rain. Cattle best described as
strong but light. Most properties report a pick that is in need of more
rain but some properties have missed out, in particular the Cooktown
area north and west, and west of Dimbulah where early storms have missed
large tracts of country. Stock are in good condition in the Innisfail
Stock District and although it has not been a normal wet season,
sufficient grass rain has been received. In the Townsville Stock
District little standing feed of any quality remains and patchy falls
have produced only minor responses in some areas.
West Region: There have been some handy falls of rain around Cloncurry
and Mt Isa, however, these were not general and some properties missed
out. Areas to the east of Cloncurry were not as fortunate and received
very little benefit from these storms and as a result, deterioration is
the feature of the area. There has been no pasture growth across the
southern portion of McKinlay, Richmond and Flinders shires this season
to date. What remains is from the previous season and is of very little
nutritive value. Wet breeders are a major concern. This class continue
to slip in condition and many producers are radically weaning. No
significant change has occurred across the Central West and dwindling
surface water supplies continue to be a major consideration. Pastures
have not shown any form of regeneration to date. No beneficial rainfall
has been received in the South West indicating another area of
deterioration.
Central Region: January was generally a dry month with scattered storm
rain. There is a shortage of feed on the ground and to buy, resulting
in stock condition deteriorating. Water resources are also being
depleted. Pasture and stock condition continue to decline with reports
of cattle deaths and cattle being humanely destroyed becoming more
common.
South-East Region: In the Maryborough and Biggenden districts there are
many poor conditioned cattle, especially breeders with calves at foot.
Livestock condition has deteriorated quickly in the last six weeks.
There are significant numbers of poor cattle on overstocked properties,
particularly breeders with calves at foot, in the Gympie district.
Store cattle are generally in fair to good condition. In the Central
and North Burnett, there are some stock in fair to good condition from
isolated areas where storms were received around the end of December.
Otherwise stock are slipping in condition with the continued dry.
Cattle condition ranges from fair to extremely poor on some properties
in the Boonah area. Properties that can drought feed have cattle in
fair condition and some are lot feeding in yards to finish cattle for
meatworks. In the Lockyer Valley all types of stock are holding
condition and at the Laidley store sale in late January cows and calves
were in good store condition. The condition of stock varies through the
Beaudesert area depending on supplementary feeding and whether or not
calves have been removed from breeders. In the Moreton area condition
of stock varies depending on destocking levels of properties. Pasture
condition across the region generally is as follows: Maryborough and
Biggenden - quality and quantity poor; Bundaberg and Perry - quality and
quantity has decreased, couch grass pasture is especially affected and
most areas are bare with very little pasture feed available; Gympie -
quality deteriorated due to extreme dry conditions, availability is
critical with no pasture growth even in spelled paddocks; Central and
North Burnett - areas that received storm rains at Christmas have some
feed but it has dried off and reduced significantly in quantity and in
other areas pastures are vitually non-existent; Boonah - pastures dried
off markedly after December rain and are extremely short and dry;
Withcott and Murphys Creek - little or no rain, the district having a
green tinge but this will not last with hot dry conditions.
South Region: Stock condition continues to decline throughout the
region with animals in the western zone and border rivers areas worst
affected. Condition ranges from score 1 to score 3. Limited pasture
has forced extensive destocking of properties and stock numbers are
estimated to have dropped at least 40% from normal. Agistment is not a
viable option with large tracts of eastern Australia droughted. Droving
the stock routes has become increasingly difficult as feed supplies
diminish. The hot, dry conditions have limited both the quality and
quantity of pasture. Pasture availability is critical for large portions
of the region as this is the second dry summer pasture season in a row.
The pasture has deteriorated to the point where recovery will be delayed
even with relief rain.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: There was some rain during January in the Mareeba shire
where irrigators of summer crops have experienced difficulty in keeping
water up to crops and dryland farmers need planting rain or some rain to
keep their crops alive from earlier plantings. Some rain early in the
month enabled some growers to continue planting peanuts and maize in
Atherton and Lakeland Downs. Bananas and pawpaws are being harvested in
the Wet Tropics.
Central Region: Little rainfall was recorded in the cropping regions of
the Central Highlands, but some rain in late December enabled some
isolated paddocks in the Dysart region to be planted to sorghum. The
sorghum planting window is basically closed with sunflowers and maize
the next option if planting rain occurs in February. January has been
another dry month in the Dawson and Callide Valleys. High temperatures
meant that any crops in the ground suffered severe moisture stress by
the end of the month. Only small areas of grain and forage sorghum were
planted on the December rain, with all of the spring planted grain
sorghum now harvested. The stubble from most of these crops has been
baled and sold. Many of the forage crops planted by those with
irrigation are almost finished, although some growers who still have
some water may plant a late crop given current demand. Falls of greater
than 50mm early in February are needed to save those crops planted.
This would also mean a late summer crop planting opportunity.
South-East Region: The few crops that are planted in the Boondooma area
are struggling with the hot, dry conditions. In the South Burnett the
summer cropping situation is very poor. Peanuts that were planted are
outside the preferred planting window and the possibility of worthwhile
yields is very low. Coalstoun Lakes has fared better with most areas
planted to corn or peanuts. There have been some crops planted in the
Monto district but there has not been enough rainfall on some properties
for successful crop establishment. In the Lockyer Valley, any dryland
crops have suffered badly and there is little or no cropping activity in
the Boonah district due to dry weather and insufficient water supply.
The avocado crop in SE Queensland is expected to be down in the coming
harvesting season with lower fruit numbers and smaller fruit size. Most
macadamia growers have also been severely affected by the drought and
most irrigated plantations in the Gympie region have not been irrigated
properly because dams are very low or empty. In the Glasshouse
Mountains area the picture is better with many growers benefiting from
good rainfalls in August and December.
South Region: There is virtually no summer crop planted in the Maranoa.
Most farmers in the western Downs are still waiting for planting rain.
In the Border Rivers only 50% of available cotton cropping area is
planted. On the Darling Downs cotton plantings are also reduced as ring
tank storages are low and some farmers have taken the option to plant
sorghum because of better prices. In the Granite Belt irrigation water
is extremely low. Apple picking has started with the larger fruit taken
in the hope that the remaining apples will increase in size. The
stonefruit harvest has concluded. Wine grapes have experienced 20% loss
in production. Major lines of capsicum, broccoli, cauliflower and
tomatoes are well down in production. Vegetable growing is centred
around the summer/autumn period and production has dropped due to lack
of irrigation water.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 500mm (639) Cairns A/P 163mm (397),
Malanda 299mm (267), Ingham 142mm (398), Innisfail 230mm (n/a),
Townsville 18mm (244), Tully 393mm (n/a), Bowen 80mm (n/a), Charters
Towers 42mm (n/a), Georgetown 58mm (227) and Normanton A/P 171mm (n/a)
Proserpine A/P 70mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P 3mm (n/a), Boulia 53mm (56), Windorah 8mm
(40), Cloncurry 75mm (122), Mt Isa 131mm (96), Longreach 7mm (67),
Muttaburra 1mm (91), Winton 39mm (78) and Charleville 17mm (70).
Central Region: Clermont recorded 2mm (102), Alpha 2 (102), Springsure
20mm (101), Mackay 28mm (268), Yaamba n/a (120), Biloela A/P 0.0mm (92),
Mt Larcom 0.4mm (138), Gladstone 0.4mm (150), and Theodore 16mm (100).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded n/a (101), Gayndah 0.0mm (117),
Mundubbera n/a (105), Esk 2mm (132), Kilkivan 1mm (142), Kingaroy 2mm
(n/a), Nanango n/a (110), Proston n/a (95), and Beaudesert 15mm (123).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 1mm (202), Maryborough 6mm
(164), Nambour 14mm (276) and Tewantin 19mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 11mm (94), Dalby 27mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 7mm
(n/a), Inglewood 0.5mm (82), Oakey 3mm (83), Pittsworth 73mm (85),
Stanthorpe 13mm (102), Toowoomba A/P 9mm (n/a), Warwick 4mm (n/a), Roma
3mm (n/a), Miles 11mm (n/a), St George A/P 4mm (n/a) and Taroom 7mm
(94).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Surface water in Bowen Stock District has diminished and
underground supplies are being depleted rapidly where they are being
used for stock water and salt incursion is a problem. Water supplies
are patchy in the Mareeba Stock District and there have been no major
stream rises. Many dams remain without clean intake except in the far
north and west, where there are full dams and waterholes. The Mitchell
River is not running as far back as Mt Molloy. Stock water supplies are
generally adequate in the Innisfail Stock District and most creeks were
flushed out at the end of January. Irrigation restrictions have been
relaxed but are being monitored closely as the underground water levels
have barely been topped up.
West Region: Surface water supplies continue to be a major concern
across the region with many on-property storages dry or rapidly
receding. Large tracts of country within the Diamantina Shire have been
destocked as a result of the lack of water, regardless of the feed
availability.
Central Region: January was a dry month with only very scattered storm
rain. There are very few natural flows in the Fitzroy or western
streams. Storm rain in late January has caused very small runs in the
upper Dawson. The other flows in the region were either regulated flow
or the tail end of some very minor flows after the rain in late
December. Groundwater levels in the region are as follows: Boyne River
- problems maintaining supplies in the areas upstream of Ubobo; Callide
Valley - water levels extremely low and areas where stock and domestic
bores have gone dry; Don and Dee Rivers area - most of the area is at
historically low water level position; Farnborough - water levels low;
Rockhampton area - water levels low to very low in areas close to
Rockhampton; Isaac River - very low throughout the Isaac River system;
Mt Larcom - water levels close to historical low levels in the East End
and Bracewell areas; Pioneer Valley - upper sections of the Pioneer
Valley have average groundwater with coastal areas of the valley
experiencing lower levels and problems with intrusion of saltwater;
Proserpine - levels average and Nebo - all levels low and falling with
some of the bores approaching their lowest recorded measurement.
South-East Region: Water supplies are scarce in the Maryborough and
Biggenden districts, with dam levels decreasing rapidly except in areas
which have received storm rain. In the Bundaberg and Perry districts
the availability of irrigation water for the cane industry, drinking
water and stock water is of concern with the Fred Haigh Dam down to 3%
of usable capacity. Dam water supplies are low or non-existent with
some bores running low in the Boondooma area and water availability for
the Gympie/Cooloola and Boonah areas is critical. In the Lockyer
Valley many dams are dry and irrigation in the Beaudesert area is coming
only from bores. Stock water remains critically low or non-existent on
some properties, particularly in the southern portion of Beaudesert
shire.
South Region: Water storages are severely stressed. January rainfall
was well below average with falls in general not exceeding 30mm. Water
levels in most groundwater aquifer systems are declining with the main
alluvial aquifer associated with the Condamine River on the eastern
Downs remaining in a depleted state. Water levels in the aquifers in
the consolidated formations in the basalt and sandstone are suffering
due to lack of recharge rains and increased use.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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