SITUATION AS AT 31 JULY 2003:
OUTLOOK:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to rise since the end of June (minus 13.2) through to the end of
July (plus 3.2) and is now in a "Rapidly Rising" phase. Based on the pattern of the SOI over June/July, rainfall
probabilities across much of Queensland have risen. Currently there is a 50-80% chance of getting or getting above
the long term August to October median rainfall across most of the southern two thirds of Queensland as well as the
top half of Cape York Peninsular. Rainfall probabilities across the rest of the State though are patchy with lower
probabilities (eg 30-40%) persisting across much of the far west of the State. As always when using any
probability based forecast system, it is important to consider the alternate view. For example, Clermont currently
has a 70% chance of getting above 60mm for August to October. This also means that there is a 30% chance of not
getting above 60mm. It is also worth remembering that August and September are the two driest months of the year
across most of Queensland so high rainfall totals are not common at this time of year. The current rainfall
probability maps are available at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au
The latest information from both the United States Climate Prediction Centre www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ and the Bureau
of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au highlights that a neutral sea temperature pattern can be currently found in the
Pacific. While the current sea surface temperature pattern is an improvement over the last twelve months, it has
not changed significantly to guarantee a large improvement in overall conditions throughout Queensland. The recent
atmosphere and ocean temperature trends do not support the development of a La Nina in the next few months. Some
concern has also been raised about a notable rewarming of subsurface temperatures throughout the central Pacific
over the last few weeks following strong westerly wind bursts during late May and early June. As well, the
preferred easterlies and south-east trade winds have been weaker than average. Due to these ongoing changes the
chance of an El Nino regenerating, while remaining low, has increased marginally. However a late winter or spring
transition into an El Nino sea temperature pattern is quite unusual. For the longer term outlook (3-6months) to
improve substantially there needs to be a return to more sustained positive monthly SOI values and a cooling of sun
surface sea temperature in the central and eastern Pacific.
STATE OVERVIEW:
The mild winter weather continued across the State during July with only isolated rainfall recorded. This warm
weather has generally sped up the development of winter crops and aided the harvest of summer crop. However, many
areas reported widespread frosts in the last week of the month which caused some damage to crops and to pastures.
There are currently 90 shires and 5 part shires declared under state processes, which represents approximately 65%
of the State of Queensland. There are also 131 Individually Droughted Properties (IDP's) in a further 14 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region:
The season continues in a normal dry winter pattern. The conditions overall have been mild which have been ideal
for crop production. The cane harvest continues with fair to average yields overall with the exception of the
Lower Herbert, which has a large area of drought affected cane. Livestock producers remain in a normal winter
supplementary feeding program with destocking continuing as producers review pasture levels.
West Region:
Generally weather conditions have been normal to slightly warmer for this time of the year with no real consistent
run of frosts. Very isolated rain fell across the region during the month. The outlook for the region is
generally bleak. Lack of pasture bulk is a concern and destocking will continue.
Central Region:
Isolated rainfall fell across the region during July. This provided some response from pastures but the quality
and quantity varies from good to denuded. Stock condition is also variable from score 1 to score 5. The mild
winter conditions have accelerated the growth of crops but these conditions changed at the end of the month when
many areas were affected by widespread frosts.
South-East Region:
Dry, cold weather and winter frosts have had detrimental effects on crops and stock. Significant rainfall is still
needed in all but near coastal areas to alleviate severe water shortages and low soil moisture levels. July
recorded below average rainfall in most centres of the region.
South Region:
The lack of reliable summer rainfall and subsequent limited pasture growth has been a concern and stock condition
has declined over the winter period. Surface water storages are low with little or no inflow over recent months.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region:
Stock sales in Mareeba are strong and cattle condition in general is reasonable. However, breeder cattle are
lightening off and considerable dry lick feeding is taking place. Some properties are destocking to agistment and
properties with bullock depots that are droughted are using the live export market. In the Innisfail/Wet Coast
area stock are in good condition and pasture growth has slowed but is still quite sufficient. Livestock condition
in the Bowen shire ranges from score 2 to score 5 depending on location, rainfall and management factors. Most
properties have stopped feeding large quantities of supplementation but are feeding selected groups of cattle with
high nutritive needs. Rainfall this month has assisted the soil moisture content to the extent of allowing some
pasture growth and buffel pastures have responded well. Store cattle destocking and feeding protein supplements to
breeder stock has increased slightly in the Charters Towers district. Most areas in the shire need rain to
revitalise and regenerate pasture.
Pastures
in the northern areas have hayed off considerably and are in low condition in the western and southern areas.
Conditions in the Townsville stock district are deteriorating as the dry weather continues and feed is declining in
quality and quantity.
West Region:
With most agistment opportunities taken and decreasing pasture stubble available in drought declared areas,
properties in the North West carrying greater than fifty percent of their normal stocking rates will possibly have
severe fodder problems in late winter/early spring. However, there are reports of reasonable feed quality and
quantity in the southern parts of Cloncurry and Flinders shires. In the Central West, reports from Boulia shire
indicate that the eastern area is quite reasonable, the north west is struggling and the west and south are patchy
ranging from very good to poor. The few pockets in Winton shire which were fortunate enough to receive rains
during May have benefited with herbage responses producing valuable sheep fodder but generally the shire is quite
barren. The Blackall stock district continues to experience deteriorating conditions. West of the Barcoo River is
the worst area and destocking is the preferred decision on many properties. Frosts have damaged pastures in the
eastern area of the district. In the South West, the light rainfall received in the Murweh and Quilpie shires may
freshen the mulga where it is not already dead. However the northern half of Murweh shire still retains some areas
of good quality pasture. Generally the Cunnamulla and Quilpie stock districts have had insufficient rain to change
the pasture picture and most stock owners are destocking rather than feed for a third straight winter.
Central Region:
In the Jericho shire, generally stock condition is good, although deteriorating towards the end of the month after
widespread frosts. Overstocked properties and those missing rain are struggling. All areas with growth have hayed
off except timbered areas and places with no pasture cover bulk have turned black. Stock are in reasonable store
condition in Belyando and northern Peak Downs shires. Pasture conditions in the western to northern parts are
variable from excellent stands of good quality mixed pasture that has hayed off well to areas that are poor to
bare. In south Peak Downs stock are also in reasonable condition but the majority of the shire has very little
feed. Relief rain over the Emerald shire at the beginning of the year has provided limited pasture growth and
cattle are generally in fair condition. Stock numbers have generally been significantly reduced. Condition of
stock is quite reasonable in Mirani, Broadsound, Sarina, Mackay and Nebo shires and sale cattle at Sarina and Nebo
are holding condition. Pasture conditions are quite reasonable. The condition of stock in the Duaringa, Fitzroy,
Livingstone, Mount Morgan and Rockhampton shires varies from score 1 to score 5.
South-East Region:
The majority of stock in the region are in strong condition. However, cold conditions will now start to cause
weight loss in most stock. Increasing sale prices have been maintained across all types of stock and with many
producers having low stock numbers, there has not been a large sell off of cattle during this winter period.
Drought/dry season feeding is increasing. Very cold winter temperatures and severe frost have now destroyed the
nutritive value of all feed.
South Region:
Livestock condition ranges from score 1 to score 4. Animals in the south-west of the region are the poorest and
this mirrors the worst drought conditions. Stock condition has fallen due to frosts which have caused pasture
quality decline. There has been continued high saleyard numbers during the month and cattle prices have
fluctuated. The previous summer rain did not produce enough pasture to carry stock over winter in many cases.
There has been winter herbage produced in the higher rainfall areas of the Downs and Maranoa.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region:
The season has been favourable in the Bowen area and the production of tomatoes, capsicums, sweet corn and beans
has been good. Harvesting of legume seed crops has started on the Atherton Tablelands and yields have been
average. Potato crops that are still growing are progessing well with the aid of irrigation but yields from the
harvest of early potato crops have generally been below average. In the wet tropics, constant south-easterly winds
with showers up to the end of July have kept banana crops growing due to good soil moisture and above average night
temperatures for the winter months. The sugar cane crush commenced in July in the Herbert district and the quality
has been fair. South and west of Ingham remains very dry and the crop is badly drought affected in these areas.
Warm, dry conditions in the Burdekin have allowed the crush to continue uninterrupted during July. The crop is
looking good and a large crush is anticipated. Plant cane is growing well. On the Tablelands, harvesting is
progressing well and tonnages have been revised upwards.
Central Region:
Isolated rainfall was reported throughout the eastern Dawson/Callide early in the month and was of some use to the
winter crops already planted, with some small areas also planted on this rain. In the last week of the month some
areas reported consecutive frosts which have caused some damage to early planted wheat crops that were in the
flowering to grain fill stages. Those wheat crops that have avoided the frost should produce good yields, although
follow-up rain in the next month will be of benefit to the later planted crops. Some chickpea crops have suffered
flower and pod losses. The last of the sorghum crops were harvested early in the month and the subsequent price
drop has seen most uncommitted grain put into storage. Most of these paddocks are likely to be fallowed over
spring for a summer planting opportunity unless there is good spring rainfall. July remained another dry month in
the Central Highlands and due to unusually warm conditions, winter crops matured rapidly, reducing yield
potential. However, frosts late in the month caused damage to flowering wheat crops and to chickpea crops,
aborting flowers and destroying some pods. These chickpea crops have the potential to recover but due to limited
moisture, this seems unlikely at this time. Sorghum crops are still being harvested and variable yields have been
recorded, despite the dry conditions. The better sunflower crops are currently being harvested. Some of the
poorer sunflower and maize crops are being fed to cattle.
South-East Region:
There have been large areas planted to early winter crops but there is some concern that severe frost may have
damaged wheat crops that were between ear emergence stage and flowering. Production will be low unless significant
rainfall is received. Green bean growers in the Gympie area and strawberry growers in the Sunshine Coast
hinterland have progressed well with their winter production. Macadamia orchards in the Sunshine coast area are
flowering well, indicating that trees in non-irrigated orchards that were severely stressed during the dry summer
months are recovering. However, there are still concerns that trees which have been drought stressed may suffer
high levels of early fruit drop and will take longer than one season to recover to their full potential. In the
Gatton area, dry conditions continue and the severe frosts during July may have an effect on production of lettuce
and potatoes.
South Region:
Crops planted in April/May throughout the Maranoa and Western Downs are in reasonable condition after receiving
some in-crop rain in the past two months. The lack of irrigation water is a major concern for irrigators in the
Border Rivers area. Crops in the eastern part of Waggamba shire are in good condition and late crops were planted
in the areas west of Goondiwindi. These late planted crops will be reliant on in-crop rain to ensure a good
harvest. The heavy frosts in the last week of July have caused damage to crops planted in April but those planted
later in more optimum times have generally not been affected. In the Darling Downs region, the warmer winter
conditions are resulting in rapid crop development and rain over the last two months has lifted prospects for
winter crop. In the Granite Belt irrigation water over the summer period has been very low and this has adversely
affected horticulture in general. Vegetable production is well down.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 154mm (132) Cairns A/P 36mm (26), Malanda 103mm (44), Ingham 38mm (35), Innisfail
153mm (n/a), Townsville 0.2mm (11), Tully 197mm (n/a), Bowen 2mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.8mm (n/a), Georgetown
0.0mm (5) and Normanton A/P 0.2mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 15mm (n/a). West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (14), Boulia
0.0mm (11), Windorah 20mm (17), Cloncurry n/a (7), Mt Isa 0.0mm (9), Longreach 0.4mm (21), Muttaburra n/a (19),
Winton 0.0mm (17) and Charleville 31mm (24). Central Region: Alpha recorded 2mm (25), Clermont 0.0mm (23),
Springsure 7mm (30), Mackay 24mm (48), Yaamba 12mm (34), Biloela A/P 21mm (31), Mt Larcom 10mm (38), Gladstone 3mm
(43), and Theodore 19mm (37). South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 12mm (38), Gayndah AP 15mm (n/a), Mundubbera
20mm (38), Esk 51mm (14), Kilkivan 25mm (49), Kingaroy 10mm (n/a), Nanango 32mm (49), Proston 10mm (41), and
Beaudesert 14mm (49). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 23mm (49), Maryborough 32mm (59), Nambour 80mm (98)
and Tewantin 58mm (n/a). South Region: Clifton 23mm (43), Dalby 17mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 33mm (n/a), Inglewood
21mm (40), Oakey 11mm (38), Pittsworth 27mm (47), Stanthorpe 38mm (49), Toowoomba A/P 14mm (n/a), Warwick 33mm
(n/a), Roma 4mm (n/a), Miles 17mm (n/a), St George A/P 38mm (n/a) and Taroom 16mm (35).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region:
Surface water storage supplies are very low in the Mareeba/Normanton areas and limited in the Charters Towers/Bowen
area. Bore supply is adequate at present. Surface and underground supplies appear to be adequate in the Bowen
shire.
West Region:
Reports are being received that some property surface storages are experiencing shortages and carting is in
progress. Areas of concern are the northern Tambo, western Isisford and western Blackall areas. Rivers and water
courses have sufficient storages in waterholes.
Central Region:
Surface water supplies are fair to good in nearly all areas of Jericho shire but are continuing to decline in
volume with most supplies coming from bores in the Belyando and northern Peak Downs shires. In southern Peak Downs
dams are still showing the effects of prolonged dry weather and Eungella and surrounding dams are critically low.
South-East Region:
Central and southern areas still require significant rainfall to fill dams and run creeks and rivers. Lockyer
Valley farmers still have low water supplies both for bores and stock water supplies.
South Region:
There were very minor rises in late June/early July in the Condamine River from Warwick through to Brigalow. There
was no flow past Chinchilla Weir while at the Cotswold Gauging Station only slight rises were recorded in early
June and later in the month carrying over into early July. There was minor to moderate runoff in the Balonne River
at Weribone. In the Maranoa catchment, Cashmere recorded minor runoff in late June which receded to no flow by mid
July while there was no flow during the period at Mitchell. In the Border Rivers area, the Macintyre River flows
at Goondiwindi remained at supplemented levels whilst the Severn River at Ballandean remained at base flow and the
Dumaresq River at Farnbro did not flow. In the Warrego catchment there was only minor runoff in early to mid July
with base flow recession to the end of July. The Paroo River retained a fluctuating base flow for the period
whilst in the Bulloo River there was slightly better than minor runoff in early July. Water levels in most
groundwater aquifer systems are still declining with the main alluvial aquifer associated with the Condamine River
on the eastern downs remains in a depleted state.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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