SITUATION AS AT 30 JUNE 2003:
OUTLOOK:
The breakdown of the 2002/03 El Nino sea temperature pattern does not automatically mean an immediate end to ongoing
widespread drought conditions. Rainfall probabilities for Queensland are an improvement over the situation this time
last year. However they are currently not high enough to guarantee statewide drought breaking rains in the medium
term. In order to improve the overall seasonal outlook, sustained positive monthly Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
values are needed over the next few months. For example, if the SOI does not return to more positive monthly values
by the end of July, rainfall probabilities would be expected to substantially fall in value for the following months.
Based on the monthly value of the SOI from the end of May (minus 5) to the end of June (minus 13.2) the SOI is in a
'Rapidly Falling' phase. In the meantime there remains the potential for some relief rain in Queensland during
winter. Currently there is a 50-70% chance of getting above the long term July to September average for southern
Queensland. Rainfall probabilities across the rest of the State though are lower around 20-50% depending on location.
As always, when using any probability based forecast system, it is important to consider the alternate view. For
example, currently Kingaroy has a 70% chance of getting above 70mm for July to September. This also means that there
is a 30% chance of not getting above 70mm. It is also worth pointing out that at this time of year the long term
median rainfall totals for much of Queensland are quite low as August and September are the two driest months of the
year in many areas. For example Roma has a long term July to September median rainfall of 75mm, Quilpie has 34mm,
Mareeba has 16mm, Cloncurry has 9mm, Laura has 3mm and Normanton has 1mm. Information received from international
agencies shows that the chance of a new El Nino developing in the short term is low (but not impossible). While the
current sea surface temperature pattern is an improvement over the last twelve months it has not changed significantly
to guarantee a large improvement in current conditions. For more specific information, please refer to Australian
Rainman, the latest "Climate Note" at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Generally the State has experienced mild winter conditions with few frosts. There have been large areas of winter
crop planted and the mild conditions have tended to accelerate the growth of these crops. Some areas have received
in-crop falls and others are looking for good planting rainfall before the imminent closure of the planting window.
There are reports that many surface water storages are low. Following recommendations from the Local Drought
Committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Rural Communities declared the area of McKinlay shire north of the
Flinders Highway under state drought processes effective 18 June 2003. There are currently 90 shires and 5 part shires
declared under state processes, which represents approximately 65% of the State of Queensland. There are also 114
Individually Droughted Properties (IDP's) in a further 14 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: Generally conditions across the north region continue to remain in a normal winter pattern with mild
days and cool nights. The cane crush has commenced in the Burdekin and on the Tablelands. In the Herbert district
much of the crop at the southern end is drought affected and tonnages are expected to be low. Most producers are
feeding a dry season supplement and generally electing to continue to destock rather than return to high levels of
drought feeding. Overcast drizzle on the Tablelands has been sufficient to maintain soil moisture and reduce pressure
on irrigation supplies. Crop growth remains good.
West Region: The outlook is generally very bleak and the current situation can be compared to what would be expected
during October. Very isolated rain fell across the region for the month of June. Generally weather conditions have
been normal to slightly warmer for this time of year, with no real consistent run of frosts as yet. There is a major
growing concern in regard to Mitchell grass and Spinifex pastures and a very high percentage of the region will have
insufficient pasture fodder to sustain stocking levels at greater than 30% to 40% maximum. There have been major
stock movements, particularly sheep, into southern markets in an attempt to take advantage of recent buoyant sale
prices.
Central Region: Conditions in the southern parts of the region are reasonable for this time of year. Although some
relief occurred in north eastern parts where average to above average rainfall was recorded during the month, inland
northern and western areas are likely to continue to struggle until relief rainfall is received. Cropping areas north
of Emerald are in desperate need of good planting rainfall to provide a planting opportunity. Stock condition and
stock water supplies are generally holding in most areas but irrigation storages require further significant falls to
provide runoff and replenishment.
South-East Region: Although there have been some frosts and cold conditions, generally winter has been mild and
therefore favourable for crops and stock. However, significant rainfall is still needed in all but near coastal areas
to alleviate severe water shortages. Minor rainfall was recorded over inland districts of the region in June. Despite
the lack of significant rainfall, there have been large areas planted to winter crops, but these need follow up
falls.
South Region: The highest rainfall of 50mm to 100mm fell in the Maranoa and the western and northern Darling Downs.
The lack of reliable summer rainfall has resulted in little pasture bulk going into winter. Forage oats and lucerne
may be useful in maintaining production. Stock condition in general is at the lower end of the scale. Surface water
storages are low.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Generally across the region livestock condition is holding at store for breeders and slightly forward
store for non breeders. Areas in the Wet Coast have experienced good rain and subsequently stock are performing
well. Cattle are generally in average condition in the Mareeba Stock District but breeders with big calves are
starting to suffer. In the Innisfail district, stock are in good condition and there is no shortage of slaughter
stock. Store sales have ceased. Heavy additional feeding of dairy cattle continues in the Malanda district. Stock
condition ranges from score 2 to 5, depending on location, rainfall and management factors in the Bowen Stock District
and most properties have stopped feeding large quantities of supplementation. General stock condition is slightly
better than store for non-breeders in the Charters Towers Stock District but breeders with calves at foot are slipping
in condition. Rainfall this month, coupled with high daily temperatures, has increased pasture quality and green
shoot in some areas but in the west there has been a lack of moisture this month and a visible lack of length and bulk
of pasture.
West Region: In the North West, with most agistment opportunities taken and decreasing pasture stubble available,
properties carrying greater than 50% of their normal stocking rates will possibly have severe fodder problems in late
winter/early spring. However, there are reports of reasonable feed quality and quantity in the southern parts of the
Cloncurry and Flinders shires. In the Central West, reports from Boulia shire indicate that conditions remain patchy
with Boulia town and the eastern area quite reasonable after receiving above average rains in April. Some properties
in this area also received beneficial falls at the end of May but the north western area is generally struggling. The
Winton shire is generally quite barren and the areas to the south and east of a line from Aramac to Longreach in
general are in poor condition. Some rain in mid to late May in the Stonehenge district produced some herbage response
in the lighter red country which will provide reasonable feed for sheep. The Blackall stock district continues to
experience deteriorating conditions. There were some light falls in the Murweh and Quilpie shires at the end of June
and this may freshen the Mulga where it is not already dead. Generally the Cunnamulla and Quilpie stock districts
have had insufficient rain to change the pasture picture. The northern half of the Murweh shire still retains some
areas of good quality pasture.
Central Region: Stock condition in Jericho Shire is generally good but properties missing rain and those overstocked
are struggling. Pastures have hayed off and some desert country is good, some very ordinary. In Banana Shire stock
are in good condition going into the middle of winter and most calves weaned. Pastures have hayed off and minor
frosts to date have meant that pastures are still displaying a tinge of green. Stock are holding in a store state on
pasture in Belyando and the northern part of Peak Downs with some stock being fed failed sorghum crops. Pasture has
hayed off. Recent rainfall should provide some new shoots on the buffel pasture to provide green pick but areas where
the buffel is eaten out will see little benefit of the rain. The majority of cattle are holding their condition in
Northern Duaringa, Fitzroy, Livingstone, Mount Morgan and Rockhampton shires but some cattle coming through the weekly
Gracemere store sales are obviously drought affected. Pasture conditions are variable between denuded and a good body
of feed. Worst affected areas are in the western side of the district, particularly Duaringa shire. Stock are
generally in good condition in Bauhinia and South West Emerald shires but there is a considerable variation in the
availability of pastures with most of the district having well below average feed reserves. An isolated pocket in the
Arcadia Valley/Carnarvon Ranges has abundant fresh pastures.
South-East Region: Stock remain in strong condition throughout the region and mild winter weather has proved very
beneficial to date. Fair to good sale prices have been maintained across all types of stock. In the majority of all
districts, minimal drought feeding is occurring. Many producers are now supplementary feeding stock as a normal
winter practice. Winter temperatures have remained mild and maintained the nutritional value of pastures. Although
there seems to be a large bulk of feed, most grasses have gone to seed quickly and there will be less dry feed
available for winter.
South Region: Livestock condition ranges from Score 1 to Score 4 with animals in the south west areas the poorest
which mirrors the worst drought conditions. There have been continued high saleyard numbers and cattle prices have
fluctuated throughout the month. There was little pasture bulk available going into winter but good winter rain could
generate herbage. There are extensive stock water shortages in the Balonne, Taroom, Crows Nest and Warwick shires.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: On the Tablelands the peanut harvest is almost completed with yields good but quality varied, depending
on moisture levels late in the growing cycle and increased extraneous matter due to wet harvesting conditions. The
potato crop has been planted and growth has been good. Harvesting of the maize crop has commenced with reasonable
yields, although drought affected crops in the Lakeland and Kaban areas are showing decreased yields. Grass seed
production has finished for the year with reasonable yields and quality. In the Bowen district planting is continuing
as normal and the seasonal outlook is positive. On the Tablelands crops of pumpkins and melons are growing well.
Central Region: Harvesting of cane crops is not due to begin until early to mid July with the crushing season likely
to be shorter if grower and mill estimates are revised downwards. Temperatures have been warm, which has seen the
wheat crops in the Dawson Callide develop faster than normal. This may result in reduced yield potentials
particularly where subsoil moisture has been insufficient to keep up with plant growth. There have been reports of
good yields from sorghum crops. The few chickpea crops planted are progressing well and the recent rain may see small
areas of wheat planted in this region. There was significant, but patchy, rainfall on the northern highlands at the
end of June. This has been beneficial for the early planted wheat crops which were suffering from moisture stress.
The majority of wheat crops in the southern highlands are still suffering from moisture stress. The chickpea crops
planted in late April are flowering and in early pod development. Sorghum crops planted in February are currently
being harvested with variable yields depending on soil depth, stored soil moisture at planting and in-crop rain.
Sunflower and maize crops are close to harvest with yields also expected to be quite variable.
South-East Region: Many growers have taken the chance and planted large areas of early winter crops and depending on
rainfall it is likely that there will be further large plantings. Some corn is now being harvested but moisture
levels are high. Coalstoun Lakes has had a varied season with some excellent crops. Wet weather conditions may start
to adversely affect fruit crops. Macadamia crops for this year and most other tree crops are expecting decreased
yields due to the extremely dry conditions at flowering last year. In the Lockyer Valley poor water supplies have
necessitated the pumping of several bores into water storages and irrigating from the storage on many properties.
South Region: Crops planted in April/May throughout the Maranoa and Western Downs area received a production boost
after falls of 40mm to 70mm in crop. The mild conditions that have prevailed over the recent growing period tend to
accelerate the growth of the existing crops but this has the potential to make the crop more susceptible to frost.
Irrigation water over the summer period has been very low in the Granite Belt and this has adversely affected
horticulture in general. Vegetable growers have reduced planting areas and production is well down.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average) North Region: Babinda received 210mm (208) Cairns A/P 43mm (50),
Malanda 84mm (62), Ingham 23mm (43), Innisfail 231mm (n/a), Townsville 5mm (20), Tully 197mm (n/a), Bowen 39mm (n/a),
Charters Towers 35mm (n/a), Georgetown 12mm (6) and Normanton A/P 5mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 73mm (n/a). West Region:
Birdsville A/P n/a (8), Boulia 6mm (7), Windorah 2mm (12), Cloncurry n/a (8), Mt Isa 1mm (3), Longreach 12mm (13),
Muttaburra 41mm (13), Winton 25mm (11) and Charleville 36mm (19). Central Region: Alpha recorded 28mm (23), Clermont
40mm (24), Springsure 34mm (24), Mackay 139mm (64), Yaamba 19mm (38), Biloela A/P 5mm (31), Mt Larcom 45mm (36),
Gladstone 13mm (35), and Theodore 40mm (28). South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 14mm (38), Gayndah AP 16mm
(n/a), Mundubbera 15mm (31), Esk 54mm (51), Kilkivan 38mm (40), Kingaroy 50mm (n/a), Nanango 71mm (34), Proston 3mm
(31), and Beaudesert 38mm (49). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 5mm (54), Maryborough 19mm (64), Nambour
15mm (95) and Tewantin 23mm (n/a). South Region: Clifton 47mm (32), Dalby 42mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 29mm (n/a),
Inglewood 24mm (28), Oakey 51mm (33), Pittsworth 53mm (37), Stanthorpe 49mm (39), Toowoomba A/P 62mm (n/a), Warwick
65mm (n/a), Roma 9mm (n/a), Miles 27mm (n/a), St George A/P 67mm (n/a) and Taroom 35mm (29).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES:
North Region: Surface water storage supplies are very low in the Mareeba/Normanton areas and limited in the Charters
Towers/Bowen areas. Bore supply is adequate at present. In the Wet Tropics rainfall this month should have a
positive impact on coastal aquifers and catchments.
West Region: Reports are being received that some property surface storages are beginning to experience shortages.
This is particularly the case around the Northern Tambo and western Isisford area, where beneficial grass rain was
received, but no major run-off received. Rivers and watercourses have sufficient storages in water holes.
Central Region: Rain during June has been fairly widespread but too light to generate anything but small stream
flows. Many streams are experiencing only recession flows and without further runoff stream flows will be well below
mean and median.
South-East Region: Central and southern areas of the South East region still require significant rainfall to fill dams
and run creeks and rivers. Lockyer Valley farmers still have low water supplies both for bores and stock water.
South Region: Many water storages are severely stressed. Good runoff rain is required to replenish storage
supplies.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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