. While
the risk is low, there remains a chance that the El Nino will regenerate
in some form during autumn/winter this year. The Climate Prediction
Centre (CPC) in the United States http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ and the
International Research Institute http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/ are a
good source of information on El Nino development. For more specific
climate information for your location refer to Australian Rainman, the
latest "Climate Note" at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or ring the DPI Call
Centre on 13 25 23.
STATE OVERVIEW:
There has generally been patchy and below average rainfall across the
State and there are still areas which have had insufficient rainfall to
run creeks and fill dams. Pasture response to earlier rainfall has been
excellent in parts of Central Queensland. However, in the west
generally there has been little or no response in the Mitchell grass and
light falls have ruined the existing standing dry pasture stubble in
some areas. The summer growing season for pasture has generally been
short resulting in no bulk or body in the paddock feed supply and many
producers are going into the drier months with pasture levels well below
what is required to carry stock through winter. The cropping outlook for
the Central Highlands is uncertain with yield expectations for summer
crops dependent on follow-up rainfall. It is expected there will be
large areas of winter crop planted in the region, especially if
substantial rainfall is received soon. There are now 89 shires and 6
part shires drought declared which represents approximately 63.8% of the
State. There are also 326 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a
further 18 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: March remained relatively dry across the north with
generally below average rainfall recorded. The passing of March also
significantly lowers the chance of the current season delivering any
real benefits to producers. There is always the chance of rain in April
but historical monthly averages are well below what is required to
stimulate pasture response after the lengthy dry spell and the shortened
growing season. Stock owners are starting to sell down stock numbers
and producers are generally going into the drier months with pasture
levels well below what is required to carry stock through to the next
wet season. The dry weather has generally suited growing conditions and
production in the cropping and horticulture sectors but has meant
increased demand and pressure on irrigation supplies and infrastructure.
West Region: A small area of Murweh/Tambo shires, an area to the north
and west of Longreach and parts of the Boulia shire may have sufficient
feed to see them through winter, but a major part of the region will
have insufficient pasture fodder to sustain stocking levels at greater
than to 30%-40% maximum. Even with significant general rainfall in the
next few weeks, pasture response will most probably be limited. In most
areas the Mitchell grass has not responded but areas that received
rainfall during December/January have had the buffel, and in some areas,
the Mitchell grass respond. In many areas where no Mitchell grass
response has occurred, the annual and summer grasses have melted and
with the previous standing stubble dissolved by the February/March
rainfall event, many areas now look and are worse than they were in
early February prior to receiving the relief rainfall.
Central Region: Rainfall in the last two months has improved conditions
markedly for stock, but the cropping outlook, particularly in the
Central Highlands and in the northern coastal areas, remains uncertain.
Cropping areas in the Capella district are facing loss of their third
consecutive summer crop with yield expectations for summer crops
generally in the region dependent on follow-up rainfall and the
potential effect of disease and frost. Large areas of winter crop are
expected, especially if substantial rainfall is received soon. Cane is
beginning to struggle with little follow-up rain occurring. Water
supplies have improved but irrigation storages in the north require
further significant falls to provide runoff and replenishment.
South-East Region: March rainfall varied for most centres throughout
the region with most rainfall stations recording below average totals.
There are still many areas that have not had significant enough rainfall
to run creeks and fill dams. Very good stock sale prices have been
maintained across all types with the increased availability of feed.
Store sales are attracting keen interest from both vendors and buyers.
There is still a shortage of well finished stock for the local and
export trade and this will continue until pastures recover. Pasture
response has generally been good but as the rainfall was received late,
the summer growing season is very short and there is no bulk or body in
the paddock feed supply.
South Region: A major concern for graziers is that there has been
insufficient summer pasture generated to feed stock over the winter
period. Forage oats and lucerne may be useful in maintaining
production. Stock condition in general is at the lower end of the scale
going into winter. Surface water storages are low. In general there
has been insufficient rain to recharge subsoil profiles. Throughout the
Granite Belt critically low irrigation supplies have adversely affected
fruit, wine grapes and vegetable production.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Generally across the region livestock condition is holding
with some slippage of breeders recorded due to insufficient rain and
subsequent pasture growth. Pasture recovery may only be short lived as
rain has been very scattered and the growing season for pasture in the
region is almost at a close. Considerable destocking is taking place
with cattle numbers at sales in Mareeba and Charters Towers increasing.
Scattered rain has fallen with high daily temperatures causing
depreciation of pasture quality causing some burning off of green shoot.
In the west of the region there has been a lack of moisture this month
and a visible lack of length and thickness of available species.
West Region: Flinders shire has some new season feed in the southern
half joining Winton shire, but this pasture response is extremely
sporadic and varies from property to property. The northern parts of
Flinders, Richmond and McKinlay shires, which are not subject to drought
declaration, are developing the symptoms of reduced pasture quality and
quantity. Many parts of Boulia shire are enjoying a good season but the
Winton shire is generally barren. Many of the properties in areas to
the south and east of a line from Aramac to Longreach are suffering poor
conditions and those running at near full stocking rates will generally
be looking at significant destocking if there is no significant rainfall
in the coming months. Blackall stock district has continued to
experience significant pasture reduction and in general the district is
now in worse condition than it was in early February. Generally the
Cunnamulla and Quilpie stock districts have had insufficient rain to
change the pasture picture and it has been reported that stock owners
are looking to unload livestock rather than feed for a third straight
winter. The northern half of Murweh shire still retains some areas of
good quality pasture. Livestock are putting on condition and weight,
but without follow up rain, winter conditions will impact on livestock
retention numbers in this area as well.
Central Region: The condition of stock continues to improve generally
but there are pockets around Alpha and Springsure where there has not
been sufficient rain to promote pasture growth to put condition on
cattle. Pasture quality and quantity varies throughout the region.
Buffel has responded well after a slow start and native pasture has also
responded well for the most part, but has been slower to recover.
South-East Region: Condition of stock in the region is now picking up
very well due to the rain received. Stock are currently in strong
condition throughout the region. In the majority of areas, drought
feeding has now finished although some producers have had to continue
feeding as they wait for pastures to build up bulk. Quantity of
pastures depends on the rainfall received but generally the quantity of
pasture grown will be less than what is needed to carry stock through
winter.
South Region: Livestock condition ranges from Score 1 to Score 4.
Stock losses could occur with drought-weakened animals chasing short
green high moisture growth which is difficult for cattle to consume.
Large cattle numbers through Roma saleyards represent a trend for
destocking. Unless there is a further and sustained break in the
season, the pasture produced in February and March will potentially
provide the only opportunity to turn-off stock close to market
specifications until next summer. The limited summer rain is unlikely
to produce enough pasture to carry stock over winter and most areas are
dependent on continued rain and low stocking pressure. The majority of
the country in the traditional sheep production areas has limited
capability to carry any numbers of stock.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: The fine dry conditions have resulted in good grass and
legume seed production on the Tablelands. Markets for seed remained
varied but overall are good with the exception of Rhodes grass, which is
currently experiencing low prices due to oversupply. The demand for hay
production remains strong. Early planted potato crops are starting to
come up and early planted peanuts have been harvested. Yields were good
although these crops required irrigation to reach full potential.
Peanuts still in the ground are starting to show moisture stress as are
maize crops. Planting of tobacco has commenced. Good rainfall in later
February and early March caused local flooding in the Bowen district
leading to significant recharge of the aquifer placing growers back on a
full water allocation. Land preparation and the first plantings of
vegetable crops are well under way. In the wet tropics rainfall has
been sufficient to meet most water requirements of banana, papaya and
tropical fruit crops. The sugar cane crop in the Burdekin and Herbert
district is generally growing well.
Central Region: Patchy rain has fallen during the month in the
Dawson/Callide and has been of benefit to summer crops that are now in
flowering and grain fill stages. Much of the sorghum planted in early
January is now filling grain and yield prospects are quite good given
the heavy rainfall in February. Later planted mung beans and sorghum
are progressing well, with recent rain ensuring that good yields may be
achievable. There is still a large proportion of the cropping area
waiting to be planted to a winter crop. It is expected that some wheat
will be planted in early April in western parts of the Dawson Valley,
although the more frost prone areas are unlikely to be planted until the
end of April. In the Central Highlands there was some very late-planted
sorghum which will have a high frost and ergot risk during flowering.
There was also a large area planted to sunflower and a relatively small
area planted to maize. So far these crops are looking quite good but
many of them will require in-crop rainfall to improve yield
expectations. The Capella region generally missed out on their third
consecutive summer crop planting and the areas around Emerald and
Capella that did manage to plant small areas of summer crop, are
suffering from moisture stress. Rainfall is critical in the next few
weeks to maximise yield.
South-East Region: In the South Burnett the summer cropping situation
varies depending on planting time and rainfall. Many corn crops have
responded well and should have adequate yields. Coalstoun Lakes has had
a varied season with some excellent crops. Early peanut crops are now
almost ready to pull. Coastal horticulture areas have continued to
benefit from the rain. There has been some crop damage and disease
problems due to the wet weather but replenishment of water supplies and
rain for crops, has far outweighed the negative aspects.
South Region: Subsoil moisture in the Western Downs/Maranoa is low and
much more rainfall is required for any possible winter crop. The
Darling Downs has benefited from recent storm rain but the main problem
is the lack of water flow in rivers and streams. In the Granite Belt
irrigation water is extremely low and the rain received was generally
insufficient to replenish storages. Stonefruit harvest has concluded.
Wine grapes have experienced a loss in production but the harvest was
not affected by rain. Vegetable growers have reduced planting areas
because of the lack of irrigation water. The rainfall brought some
relief to crops but production of capsicum, broccoli, cauliflower and
tomatoes is well down.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 380mm (816) Cairns A/P 233mm (449),
Malanda 210mm (347), Ingham 131mm (454), Innisfail 230mm (n/a),
Townsville 71mm (176), Tully 319mm (n/a), Bowen 88mm (n/a), Charters
Towers 81mm (n/a), Georgetown 160mm (140) and Normanton A/P 81mm (n/a)
Proserpine A/P 58mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (19), Boulia 44mm (35), Windorah 37mm
(32), Cloncurry 35mm (62), Mt Isa 4mm (65), Longreach 25mm (65),
Muttaburra 30mm (64), Winton 56mm (51) and Charleville 14mm (59).
Central Region: Clermont recorded 21mm (75), Alpha 38mm (70), Springsure
11mm (69), Mackay 217mm (312), Yaamba 129mm (117), Biloela A/P 54mm
(52), Mt Larcom 33mm (109), Gladstone 28mm (104), and Theodore 64mm
(46).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 32mm (71), Gayndah AP 57mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 111mm (56), Esk 66mm (87), Kilkivan 80mm (85), Kingaroy 53mm
(n/a), Nanango 38mm (74), Proston n/a (68), and Beaudesert 67mm (100).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 89mm (127), Maryborough 80mm
(134), Nambour 166mm (215) and Tewantin 227mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 69mm (73), Dalby 88mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 91mm
(n/a), Inglewood 58mm (59), Oakey 90mm (52), Pittsworth 86mm (69),
Stanthorpe 73mm (76), Toowoomba A/P 57mm (n/a), Warwick 39mm (n/a), Roma
15mm (n/a), Miles 87mm (n/a), St George A/P 38mm (n/a) and Taroom 83mm
(64).
North Region: Stock water supplies are generally adequate for the
Malanda and Innisfail Stock District but the low underground water
levels are a concern for later in the year. The surface water situation
is patchy but generally the major rivers have had very low to normal
runs in the Mareeba Stock District. In the Charters Towers and
Townsville Stock Districts surface water is limited and evaporation
high. Bore supply is adequate. Surface water supplies in the Bowen
Stock District have been replenished to a degree.
West Region: All rivers have had good flows and although all dams may
not be full, storm rain has provided relief. Stock water is generally
adequate.
Central Region: Rainfall was recorded very early in the month in most
parts with a few scattered storms later in the month. These storms
favoured Biloela and Taroom areas.
South-East Region: Northern areas of the region and coastal districts
have had significant rainfall to run watercourses and fill dams. Good
rainfall on the coastal strip has delivered streamflows in the Albert
River, Running Creek and Christmas Creek and these have temporarily
replenished waterholes in these streams. Central and southern areas
however, still require significant rainfall to fill dams and run creeks
and rivers. In the Beaudesert Shire supplies of surface water remain
critically low. There has been negligible runoff rain in the district
for at least three seasons and storages are severely depleted.
South Region: During March, up to 150mm of rain was recorded in the
eastern part of the region and up to 50mm in the west. The rain in
general lacked the intensity to generate substantial runoff and dam
storages were not assisted greatly. Surface water storages are low.
There are critically low irrigation supplies in the Granite Belt.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
