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07 Aug 2008

The latest climate data highlights that the 2002/03 El Nino sea temperature pattern has largely broken down. However it is important to point out that this does not automatically mean an immediate end of the current drought. Rainfall probabilities for Queensland, although an improvement over the situation this time last year, are currently not high enough to produce widespread drought-breaking rains in the medium term. While the chance of a new El Nino developing remains fairly low (but not impossible) it should be remembered that much of Queensland remains drought declared and the overall situation may not dramatically improve until summer. Of some concern are the fluctuations of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) during May. The 30day average of the SOI has fallen from a high of plus 3.6 on 14 May to minus 8.1 as at 02 June. Based on the monthly value of the SOI from the end of April (minus 5.9) to the end of May (minus 5) the SOI is in a 'Consistently Near Zero' phase. Based on the recent SOI pattern, most of the southern two thirds of Queensland has a 50-70% chance of getting above the long term June to August median rainfall. This compares with a 30-50% chance for most of the peninsular and gulf regions. As always, when using any probability based forecast system, it is important to consider the alternate view. For example, currently Marburg in south-east Queensland has a 71% chance of getting above the long term June to August median rainfall of 105mm. This also means that there is a 29% chance of not getting above 105mm. If you require more specific climate information, please refer to Australian Rainman, the latest "Climate Note" at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or contact the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Generally there was average to below average rainfall for May with coastal areas receiving more significant falls. The State also experienced unseasonably warm conditions towards the end of the month. There is very little bulk in the pastures and most areas are reporting that there will be insufficient pasture to sustain stocking levels throughout winter. There have been extensive winter plantings in the Maranoa and western Downs. The earlier sown wheat in the Central Highlands is showing signs of moisture stress but in the Dawson/Callide it has benefited enormously from showers in most of the area during the month. Most of the late sorghum crops in this area are now close to harvest with yields some of the best seen in a number of years. There are currently 89 shires and 6 part shires declared under state processes, which represents approximately 63.8% of the State of Queensland. There are also 134 Individually Droughted Properties (IDP's) in a further 16 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region:

Little change in the overall seasonal conditions this month as the north continues to experience normal dry season weather. Some light rain on the Tablelands provided some relief to irrigation supplies. Crop growth at this stage is generally average. Water availability in the later stages of growth may impact on production if rainfall is limited. In the extensive grazing areas, producers continue to destock and reassess their management options as they go into winter with limited pastures.

West Region:

Very isolated rain fell across the region during the last days of the month. General weather conditions have remained very warm for this time of the year, so areas fortunate enough to have received anything beneficial from these falls will see some response from herbages and even pasture grasses. However, even with significant general rainfall in the next three weeks, pasture response will most probably be limited. Many properties have been destocking and possibly between 80% and 90% of the region will have insufficient pasture fodder to sustain stocking levels at greater than 30% to 40% maximum. Major stock movements are into southern markets, in an attempt to take advantage of recent buoyant sale prices.

Central Region:

Rainfall was average to below average for the month across the region. Highest totals were recorded in coastal areas around Mackay and on the Capricorn Coast with totals trailing off in inland areas. Earlier sown wheat crops in the Central Highlands are suffering from moisture stress due to lack of rainfall and very warm conditions at the end of the month. Deep sown chickpea crops are progressing well and the sorghum harvest has begun. Cane production estimates continue to be revised downwards. Stock condition is generally holding in most areas. Stock water supplies are also holding generally, but irrigation storages require further significant falls to provide runoff and replenishment, particularly the Fairbairn Dam on the Nogoa system.

South-East Region:

Minor rainfalls were recorded over inland districts of the region in May. Coastal areas had far more significant rain resulting in a good finish to the season before winter. There have been some good yields in sorghum crops considering the season but many of the late planted peanut crops in the Burnett have been affected by cold weather. Despite the lack of significant rain there have been large areas planted to winter crops. Beef and pastures have been favoured by the generally mild conditions.

South Region:

Rainfall in the region was average or below average for the month with the eastern Downs having the highest recordings. Stock condition in general is at the lower end of the scale and the lack of reliable summer rainfall and subsequent limited pasture growth is of concern going into winter. Surface water storages are low. There have been extensive winter crop plantings in the Maranoa and western Downs after subsoil profiles were replenished.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Generally across the region livestock condition is holding but some slippage of breeders has been recorded due to insufficient rain and subsequent pasture growth. Considerable destocking is taking place as some producers feel current condition of cattle will not hold with available pasture resulting in cattle numbers at sales in Mareeba and Charters Towers increasing. Scattered rain has fallen with low daily temperatures causing increase of pasture quality and green shoot but this is limited. In the west of the region there has been a lack of moisture this month and a visible lack of length and thickness of available species. The Innisfail/Wet Coast areas seem to be holding and performing the best in the region at present.

West Region:

The North West in general has not received sufficient rainfall to create a pasture response that will allow stocking rates at greater than 40% to 50%. Pasture response has been extremely sporadic and varies from property to property. Reports from the Boulia shire indicate that conditions remain patchy. Boulia town and the eastern area are quite reasonable after receiving above average rains in April and some properties received beneficial falls during the last days of May. However, the north western area is struggling with the west and south areas generally patchy, ranging from very good to poor. The Winton shire in general is quite barren but with a few pockets which received rains during mid and late May providing relief in the form of herbages and some pasture response. The Stonehenge district received about 30mm of rain in mid to late May and this should produce some herbage response in the lighter red country and will provide reasonable feed for sheep. However, the Blackall stock district largely missed this rain band and continues to experience deteriorating conditions, with west of the Barcoo River the worst area. The areas to the south and east of a line from Aramac to Longreach are also experiencing deteriorating conditions. In the South West, Charleville and north to Augathella received some beneficial rains during the last days of May. The northern half of Murweh shire still retains some areas of good quality pasture. Generally the Cunnamulla and Quilpie stock districts have had insufficient rain to change the pasture picture.

Central Region:

There are areas where all cattle, and in particular breeders, do not have the body condition to be able to get through winter on molasses, dunder and urea supplements. However, at the opposite end of the scale, there are cattle in forward to prime condition in the more favoured areas. The region ranges from having abundant fresh pastures in approximately 10% of Bauhinia Shire, to bare paddocks in a number of areas. In between there is generally a reasonable body of feed that has hayed off.

South-East Region:

Stock remain in strong condition throughout the region. Fair to good sale prices have been maintained across all types of stock and with many producers having low stock numbers there has not been a large sell off of cattle at the beginning of winter. Winter temperatures have remained mild and maintained the nutritional value of pastures. Although there seems to be a large bulk of feed, most grasses have gone to seed quickly and there will be less dry feed available for winter. Many pastures have been destroyed by army worms which will make winter management difficult for property owners.

South Region:

Livestock condition ranges from Score 1 to Score 4 with animals in the south west areas the poorest. Winter forage crops will lift the potential for more saleable stock but stock condition is likely to fall after frosting of pastures resulting in a decline in quality. Unless there is further rain, the pasture produced in February, March and April will potentially provide the only opportunity to turn-off stock close to market specifications until next summer. There has been considerable destocking over the extended dry period and many properties are below 30% of normal carrying capacity. Stock water supplies are low, particularly in Balonne, Taroom, Crows Nest and Warwick shires. Current pasture is all that will be available to stock until the next summer period. The warmer Autumn weather has allowed continued pasture growth and good winter rain could generate winter herbage.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region:

On the Tablelands the peanut harvest continues with good yields but varied quality depending on moisture levels late in the growing cycle. Potatoes are being planted and pasture seed production is currently in its major harvesting period. Planting of horticulture crops is continuing in the Bowen district and the seasonal outlook is positive. There has been some good rain in the Herbert district this month and sugar cane growers are getting ready to plant, although some are delaying until more rain is received. To take advantage of some late growth, the mill has delayed the start to the crushing season until July because the dry weather has stunted the crop. The Burdekin growers are in their drying off cycles in preparation for harvest. Crop growth has been good with little damage from pests and disease. On the Tablelands/Mareeba district, rainfall for this growing season has been well below average but crops that have been well irrigated are looking good and yields are anticipated to be better than last season.

Central Region:

Very little rainfall and a period of unseasonably hot weather late in the month affected both summer and winter crops in the Central Highlands. Some of the earlier sown wheat crops are struggling due to lack of moisture and emergence of many of the later planted crops has been patchy, due to seed not consistently being planted into moist soil. Most of the chickpea crops were deep sown and are currently in good condition and showing no signs of moisture stress. The sorghum harvest has begun but the majority of sorghum, sunflower and maize crops will be harvested later in June. Most of the Dawson Valley and the higher parts of the Callide have been planted and most crops are looking quite reasonable as they approach the end of the tillering phase. Most of the late sorghum crops are close to harvest. Yields are some of the best seen in years with reports of up to 5 t/ha and prices of around $220/$240/t.

South-East Region:

In the South Burnett, the summer cropping situation varies depending on planting time and rainfall. There were large areas that were not planted to summer crop and some of these producers still have not planted a winter crop. Many of the corn crops planted have done better than expected but most will not be harvested until July/August. Some sorghum crops have been harvested with varying yields. Late planted peanuts are being harvested but yields have been affected by cold weather. Coalstoun Lakes has had a varied season with some excellent crops. Depending on rainfall it is likely that there will be a large planting of winter crops.

South Region:

Crops planted in April/May throughout the Maranoa and western Downs area, require rain to continue production. Areas in the Balonne shire still require rain to plant. There is concern that there could be very limited water allocations for next summer's irrigated crop as storages have been drastically depleted. The Darling Downs has benefited from recent storm rain but the main problem remains the lack of water flow in rivers and streams as storm rains have been patchy. Army worm invasion has caused extensive damage to pasture and crops throughout the region. Irrigation water over the summer period in the Granite Belt has been very low and this has adversely affected horticulture in general. Vegetable growers have reduced planting areas and consequently production is well down.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 351mm (427) Cairns A/P 99mm (107), Malanda 118mm (118), Ingham 178mm (126), Innisfail 326mm (n/a), Townsville 8mm (40), Tully 397mm (n/a), Bowen 16mm (n/a), Charters Towers 18mm (n/a), Georgetown 10mm (10) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 29mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P 0.0 (n/a), Boulia 37mm (14), Windorah 9mm (23), Cloncurry n/a (13), Mt Isa 0.0mm (17), Longreach 35mm (29), Muttaburra 5mm (22), Winton 10mm (23) and Charleville 0.4mm (41).

Central Region: Clermont recorded 8mm (47), Alpha 4mm (40), Springsure 12mm (47), Mackay 88mm (115), Yaamba 22mm (63), Biloela A/P 21mm (43), Mt Larcom 28mm (63), Gladstone 14mm (70), and Theodore 4mm (47).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 16mm (44), Gayndah AP 37mm (n/a), Mundubbera 30mm (40), Esk 9mm (59), Kilkivan 33mm (49), Kingaroy 30 (n/a), Nanango 39mm (48), Proston 48mm (45), and Beaudesert 42mm (76). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 13mm (69), Maryborough 46mm (78), Nambour 170mm (139) and Tewantin 102mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 14mm (48), Dalby 8mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 0.4mm (n/a), Inglewood n/a (43), Oakey 36mm (45), Pittsworth 11mm (44), Stanthorpe 24mm (59), Toowoomba A/P 29mm (n/a), Warwick 35mm (n/a), Roma 3mm (n/a), Miles 5mm (n/a), St George A/P 11mm (n/a) and Taroom 16mm (42).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region:

Cooktown remains dry with the Endeavour, Normanby and other associated streams and rivers very low. The Mitchell River above Chillagoe remains low but still with adequate stock water. Surface water is adequate in the Bowen stock district at this stage. The underground supplies have been reasonably well replenished but some areas require topping off. In the Charters Towers stock district, surface water is limited and evaporation high. Bore supply is adequate. No water problems have been reported in the Townsville stock district.

West Region:

Reports are being received that some property surface storages are beginning to experience shortages. This is particularly the case around the northern Tambo and western Isisford area, where beneficial "grass rain" was received, but no major run-off received. Rivers and water courses have sufficient storages in waterholes.

Central Region:

There is an area in the north east of Bauhinia Shire where there has been very little runoff in the last four years that is becoming critical again. Parts of Duaringa Shire are also feeling the pinch, as are other isolated pockets that missed out on good rain.

South-East Region:

Central and southern areas still require significant rainfall to fill dams and run creeks and rivers. Towns like Boonah will still have major water problems in the coming months despite the rain. Lockyer Valley farmers still have low water supplies both for bores and stock water.

South Region:

Many water storages are severely stressed. Good runoff rain is required to replenish storage supplies.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.