SITUATION AS AT 30 NOVEMBER 2003
OUTLOOK:
The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained
stable from the end of October (minus 2.8) through to the end of November
(minus 2.4). Based on the shift in value the SOI remains in a "Near Zero"
phase. For December to February there is a 40-60% chance of getting above
the long term median rainfall across most of Queensland. For example,
Dalby on the Darling Downs has a 45% chance of getting above its long term
December to February median rainfall of 240mm.
As has been highlighted recently, the key indicators in the Pacific Ocean
now show the potential for the emergence of 'near El Niņo' conditions over
the next three to eight months. While it is too early to be definitive
regarding climate conditions in 2004/2005, the Queensland Centre for
Climate Applications (QCCA) suggest particularly close monitoring of key
climate indicators (sea-surface and sub-surface temperatures, SOI,
near-surface wind anomalies) and climate model outputs over the next three
to six months. As part of the Department of Primary Industries' response
to these changes an "El Nino watch" has been initiated and QCCA will
regularly monitor any developments in the Pacific and pass on this
information as it becomes relevant. Although the key period for the
development of an El Nino event is still some time away, it could be useful
for businesses that are adversely affected by these events to consider now
what risk management strategies they could incorporate into their
management plans if the likelihood of an El Nino event increases.
The MJO is a band of low atmospheric pressure originating off the east
coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and
northern Australia roughly every 30 to 50 days. The last passage of the
MJO influenced our weather over the third week of November. It helped
produce some very patchy but useful rainfall totals for those lucky enough
to receive them across the southern half of Queensland. If its timing
remains current it would next be expected in late December. Many people
like to follow the timing of the MJO (also know as the 40day wave) as while
it is a tropical phenomenon, it appears to indicate the timing of potential
rainfall events (but unfortunately not rainfall amounts) over central and
southern Queensland.
For more information with any climate related issue contact the DPI Call
Centre on 13 25 23.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Well below average rainfall was recorded across the State during the month
and in many areas hot, dry and windy conditions put further pressure on
pasture growth, stock condition and dwindling water supplies. Spring
planted crops in the Dawson/Callide are progressing well but rainfall is
urgently needed in cropping areas to provide planting opportunities for
summer crops and improve the cropping outlook. There are currently 95
shires and 4 part shires drought declared under State processes which
represents 66.5% of the land area of the State. There are also 123
Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 14 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: Well below average rainfall totals across the north this
month did little to alleviate the continuing dry conditions and above
average temperatures removed any benefit of the limited rain that did fall.
Water restrictions on the Tablelands are impacting on cane crops. The
cane harvest has finished in most districts with yields and CCS generally
good overall. Livestock owners continue to supplement with molasses and
protein supplements. Lightening strikes have caused fires on a number of
central Peninsula properties.
West Region: Conditions have not improved during the month and any rain
that has fallen has been extremely isolated. Reports were received that
very scattered falls of up to 50mm were received around Tambo and
Augathella. Stock movements continue to flow into southern markets to take
advantage of buoyant market demands. Large amounts of Mitchell grass and
buffel grass tussocks appear to have died and new responses will have to
originate from seed banks. Even if median rainfall does occur, it may not
be adequate to result in sufficient pasture regrowth.
Central Region: Rainfall totals across almost all of central Queensland
were well below average to extremely low for the month. Hot windy
conditions have led to a general decline in pasture condition and have put
further pressure on dwindling stock water supplies. Spring planted crops
in the Dawson/Callide are progressing well, however cropping conditions in
the Central Highlands remain unchanged, with no significant rainfall to
provide a planting opportunity. Sugarcane processing has finished for the
year with the crop in the Mackay and Sarina areas significantly lower than
previous years.
South-East Region: Rainfall was extremely varied throughout the month.
Dry conditions have all but negated the gains of October rainfall and many
cropping areas are still waiting to plant summer crops. Unseasonal cold
nights and hot days have not been beneficial and significant rainfall is
still needed in all but near coastal areas to alleviate and replenish major
water storages and farm dams.
South Region: The highest rainfall for the month was recorded in a band
from the Border Rivers area through to the middle of the region around
Meandarra and The Gums. The limited pasture availability is likely to
continue with a relatively low chance of exceeding median growth. Winter
crop yields have generally been reduced as many crops have been affected by
frost, lack of in-crop rainfall and hot, dry conditions in early September.
Surface water storages are low, with little or nil inflow over the recent
months.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Pastures are rapidly diminishing in quantity and quality in
the Mareeba Stock District and in the Georgetown Stock District the quality
of available feed is poor, with the majority of producers using supplements
to maintain stock condition. Isolated showers across the Malanda Stock
District have offered little relief and stock owners continue to supplement
and destock. Pastures have dried off considerably and creeks have ceased
flowing in the Innisfail Stock District and producers have generally
offloaded any fat cattle remaining. Stock continue to slip in the Charters
Towers Stock District and producers are supplementing most lines with
protein mixes. Little to no pasture of any quality remains in the
Townsville Stock District and stock are in an ongoing decline. Breeders
with calves are the worst affecting, prompting early weaning throughout the
district. It has been cool and dry across the Bowen Stock District with
northerly winds depleting any quality from standing pastures. Buffel
pastures are still useful but they are haying off and deteriorating in both
quantity and quality. Some properties are completely denuded of pasture.
Livestock range from score 1 to 5 depending on location, rainfall and
management factors.
West Region: In the North-West livestock movements have slowed in line
with market closures and mustering operations ending for the year. Pasture
quality and quantity at this time is normally extremely low and conditions
have been exacerbated by rainfall deficiency during the previous wet
season. The turn off of stock commenced much earlier in 2003, with many
properties off loading the following years steer herd. Apart from the
eastern Boulia area which has received some benefit from rain, the
remainder of the Central-West is very dry, with extremely isolated storms
providing some relief. Many remaining breeder stock have been sent to
agistment in New South Wales. In the South-West the northern half of the
Murweh shire still retains some areas of reasonable quality pasture. Some
scattered falls have been received across this area maintaining the green
shoot. The Cunnamulla and Quilpie stock districts have had insufficient
rain to change the pasture picture at all.
Central Region: In the Banana and Calliope shires most stock are in fair
condition but cows with calves are in poorer condition. The districts to
the north of Banana Shire and some parts of the Calliope Shire have had
good falls of rain and a subsequent good pasture response. There is still
some green shoot in other areas. Some very isolated storms fell in the
Duaringa, Fitzroy, Livingstone, Mt Morgan and Rockhampton Shires. In the
isolated patches that have received relief rain there has been some pasture
response. However, the majority of feed is very dry or deteriorating
rapidly. Generally stock here are in good condition with the exception of
wet cows that are showing the effects of the continuing dry season. Stock
numbers are well down on many properties. In Belyando and northern Peak
Downs Shires the condition of stock continues to hold with some areas
slipping, particularly in the north where little rainfall has been
experienced. There are reports that there is little pasture left in some
areas in the north-west. In southern Banana and part Duaringa Shires stock
are holding well considering the dry conditions experienced this month.
However, condition of cows with young calves is starting to slip.
Supplementary feeding is continuing. Pasture has dried off considerably
and both quantity and quality has fallen. There has been no rainfall of
any consequence this month in Bauhinia and South West Emerald Shires and
pasture reserves are severely depleted in many areas and continue to
deteriorate. Cattle generally are in fair to good condition, although
there are isolated areas of severely denuded country where cattle are
tending more towards poor condition.
South-East Region: The majority of stock in the region are now improving
in condition. In the Boonah/Beaudesert area poor stock are now responding
to the rejuvenated pastures and many animals are now in store to forward
store condition. There has been less response to rain in the Cooloola
district with calving cows having difficulty in the less than ideal
conditions. In the South Burnett most breeders are in good order with dry
stock in very good order. In the Central and North Burnett most stock are
in fair condition, though this varies with the patchy season. Breeders are
falling in condition due to the dry spring and very little pasture growth
in the Bundaberg district. Dry cattle are in fair condition with some
cattle on the better country that has received storms in good condition.
Saleyard prices have maintained fair levels as prices have dropped as stock
from dry areas continue to move onto the market. The hot dry conditions
have dried off feed and diminished quality. Many producers are now back to
poor pastures and dry feed.
South Region: Cattle markets have remained good despite very dry
conditions in western areas. Livestock condition ranges from score 1 to
score 4 with animals in the south-west the poorest. There has been
continued large turn-off of cattle through saleyard auctions. Cattle
prices are solid due in part to a decline in suitably conditioned animals.
Sheep meat prices are high again as a result of suitable numbers of
slaughter stock. Pig prices are increasing. The previous summer rain in
general did not produce sufficient pasture to carry average stocking rates
over winter. There has been only a limited summer pasture response to rain
over recent months. Pasture species like Mitchell grass are still being
observed as not responding to current rainfall events. The November rain
will generate pasture growth in the better rainfall areas, however, follow
up rain will be crucial for any substantial production.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: The potato harvest continues on the Tablelands with yields
improving in the later season crops. Land preparation is under way for
summer crops such as peanuts and maize. The vegetable season is drawing to
a close in the Bowen district and prices have generally been on the low
side this season. Kensington Pride mango yields are down on the Tablelands
due to poor seasonal conditions. Lychee crops are also down, with some
growers electing not to harvest due to low fruit numbers. The cane crush
has finished in the Herbert district and rain towards the end of the month
helped bring up ratoons and plant cane is responding quickly. There was a
record cane crop harvested in the Burdekin and growers are continuing to
fertilise and irrigate with plant and ratoon cane growing well.
Central Region: There was little rain throughout the Dawson Callide
during the month with high daily temperatures starting to impact on the
small area of spring crop already planted. Many of these crops have
progressed well on stored moisture and should still achieve reasonable
yields despite the heat. Irrigated cotton crops are progressing well after
a slow start and follow up rain is needed to ensure irrigation supplies for
the remainder of the season. The Central Highlands experienced hot, dry
and windy conditions during the month resulting in worsening of summer
cropping opportunities. Soil moisture in the majority of fallow country
varies from none to a very small amount. The planting window for sorghum
closes in early February and for sunflowers in late March, so rainfall is
urgently needed to improve the cropping outlook.
South-East Region: Harvesting of winter crops has continued with variable
results and many crops lost much of their potential yields due to dry
conditions. Planting of summer crops of peanuts, millet and sunflowers has
begun but the dry conditions have meant that many summer crops have not yet
been planted. Soil moisture levels are changing from day to day due to the
variable weather conditions. In the Nambour district the stone fruit season
is continuing with some growers finishing very early in the season.
Rainfall has been adequate. In the Bundaberg district there has been very
little rain from storms and water supplies remain low across the whole
district. Cane harvesting has finished but tomatoes, capsicums,
rockmelons, watermelons and pumpkins are being grown. There have been
useful falls of rain in the Gatton district but not enough to change the
water situation resulting in the summer crops of capsicum, beans,
rockmelon, watermelon, tomatoes and pumpkins which are now in the ground
requiring significant watering.
South Region: The winter crop harvest on the Central and Northern Downs
had higher protein levels because of the dry finish. Quality was reduced
by high screening levels, the result of shrivelled grain due to frost
and/or dry conditions. A significant area of winter cereal crops was baled
for hay because of frost damage. There is reasonable subsoil moisture,
particularly where there was stubble cover over the winter fallow and some
sorghum, maize and soybean crops have been planted. Some dryland cotton
areas have had to be replanted because of wind damage. The wheat crop on
the Western Downs was severely affected by the continuing dry conditions
and some of it has been directed to feed markets. Little summer crop has
been planted. In the Western Downs/Maranoa, wheat has been harvested with
good crops east of Roma and the harvest in the Miles district has also been
completed with yields generally better than expected. No summer crop has
been planted.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 47mm (222) Cairns A/P 18mm (100), Malanda
21mm (106), Ingham 15mm (112), Innisfail 24mm (n/a), Townsville 8mm (55),
Tully 99mm (n/a), Bowen 2mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown
0.5mm (63) and Normanton A/P 2mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 22mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville n/a (12), Boulia 7mm (19), Windorah 7mm (16),
Cloncurry 22mm (29), Mt Isa 28mm (24), Longreach 4mm (23), Muttaburra 3mm
(31), Winton 5mm (28) and Charleville 14mm (42).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 7mm (46), Clermont 0.2mm (64), Springsure
6mm (66), Mackay 13mm (88), Yaamba 37mm (67), Biloela A/P 29mm (86), Mt
Larcom 5mm (89), Gladstone 20mm (81), and Theodore 31mm (86).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 43mm (78), Gayndah AP 51mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 27mm (80), Esk 8mm (87), Kilkivan 54mm (81), Kingaroy 29mm
(n/a), Nanango 10mm (85), Proston 17mm (76), and Beaudesert 20mm (93). On
the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 67mm (101), Maryborough 36mm (105),
Nambour 58mm (158) and Tewantin 39mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 36mm (85), Dalby 10mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 34mm (n/a),
Inglewood 39mm (69), Oakey 25mm (81), Pittsworth 29mm (83), Stanthorpe 23mm
(83), Toowoomba A/P 23mm (n/a), Warwick 22mm (n/a), Roma 45mm (n/a), Miles
21mm (n/a), St George A/P 7mm (n/a) and Taroom 5mm (75).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: The Mitchell River has stopped at Highbury and is only
running in the sand further downstream. Many other major streams have
stopped and dams on a number of properties have failed.
West Region: Reports are being received that some property surface
storages are experiencing shortages and carting is in progress. Areas of
concern are the northern Tambo, western Isisford and western Blackall
areas. Reserves in rivers and watercourses have significantly receded.
Central Region: Many areas continue to experience below average rainfall.
Scattered storms resulted in some small stream flows, but in most cases
the rainfall was not significant enough to generate any runoff. Many
streams still remain at low levels or are not flowing.
South East Region: In the Boonah area, some dams are full to near full
from storm activity with falls up to 90mm in the Kalbar to Roadvale and
Milbong areas. Most farm dams are about quarter full. There have been no
stream flows or run off in the catchment area of Moogerah or Maroon Dams.
In the Beaudesert area there have been isolated runs in Christmas Creek due
to storms and some replenishment in the Logan River. In the Gympie
district, allocations on the Mary River have been reduced and there has
been no run-off to top up any dams.
South Region: There are extensive shortages of stock water in the Balonne,
Booringa, Waggamba, Inglewood, Taroom, Crows Nest and Warwick shires. Many
water storages are severely stressed. Good runoff rain is required to
replenish storage supplies.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
| 
