SITUATION AS AT 31 OCTOBER 2003:
OUTLOOK:
The 30 day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as of 3 November
2003 is minus 3.7 and it remains in a 'near zero' or neutral phase. It has
not been in a 'Consistently Positive' phase since March 2001.
For those interested in following historical SOI/rainfall patterns more
closely, it can be useful to find out what rainfall and farming conditions
were like in your area for November to January in the following years that
also had a "Near Zero" phase at the end of October - 2001, 1995, 1990,
1985, 1980, 1979, 1978, 1968, 1967, 1961 and 1960. Information on what
rainfall patterns were like in those years can be found at
www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au or in AUSTRALIAN RAINMAN.
Across southern and western Queensland there remains a 30-50% chance of
getting above the long term November to January median rainfall. Rainfall
probabilities for the same period are marginally higher for eastern
Queensland, reaching 60-70% for parts of the central and northern coastal
strip. For example Gayndah has a 61% chance of getting above its long term
November to January median rainfall of 290mm. While these figures do
represent a general improvement over this time last year, they are not high
enough to guarantee immediate statewide drought breaking rain. For better
chances of seasonal conditions improving, it would help if the SOI returned
to more sustained positive values. Research indicates that with the
current SOI pattern there is an increased chance for severe storm activity
including hail and strong winds across southern Queensland for the rest of
spring and summer.
STATE OVERVIEW:
During October, Queensland experienced isolated storms which brought relief
to some areas, as well as hot dry winds, dust storms, fires in North
Queensland and damaging winds and hail in southern Queensland. Harvest of
the winter crop has finished in Central Queensland and Spring grain crops
have been planted in the Dawson/Callide. Harvesting has started in the
Roma district. Although frost damage in the western Downs and the Maranoa
has adversely affected yield potential of winter crops, good rain has been
received in the Miles district and there are expectations of some good
wheat crops. Stock and pasture condition across the State varies depending
on rainfall received. Water supplies in some areas are critical.
Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister
for Primary Industries and Rural Communities declared the shires of
Burdekin effective 15 October 2003, Hinchinbrook effective 22 October 2003
and Townsville City and Thuringowa effective 23 October 2003 under state
drought processes. There are now 95 shires and 4 part shires drought
declared in the State of Queensland which represents 66.5% of the land area
of the State. There are also 101 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs)
in a further 13 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: Above average temperatures and hot dry winds were a common
feature across North Queensland in October. There were some isolated
storms but falls were patchy and varied in intensity with the hot weather
minimising any real benefit to pastures and crops. Graziers continue to
implement supplementation programs as they wait for a break in the season
to bring some pasture response.
West Region: October is one of the driest months for the region with only
extremely isolated storms providing some relief. Weather conditions have
been much warmer than average for this time of year and during the last
days of the month hot dry winds delivered two days of dust storms. Stock
numbers continue to decline as sheep and cattle exit the region. Market
prices have been reasonably buoyant. Between 80% and 90% of the region has
insufficient pasture fodder to sustain stocking levels at greater than 30%
to 40% maximum.
Central Region: There was some relief from the dry conditions in October
with good storms in some places. Where there has been some good relief
rain, the stock are in as good condition as can be expected for this time
of the year. Pasture condition varies according to the amount of recent
rain and how bad conditions were before the rain. Rain delayed winter crop
harvest in the Dawson/Callide but most crops did not suffer significant
weather damage. Yields and quality generally were average to above
average. Storm rains have been of benefit to sorghum and mungbean crops
planted early September. Generally crop prospects look good and further
rain should see good yields. There is also a small area of fallow left to
be planted to a summer crop after the next rainfall event. Winter crop
harvests have been completed in the Central Highlands and farmers are
waiting on rain before planting summer crops, although some spring sorghum
has been planted in areas which have received patchy rain.
South-East Region: Although useful rain has been received in most
districts it has been accompanied by damaging winds and hail.
Horticultural crops have been lost in the Gatton, Kalbar, Jimboomba and
South Burnett areas. The majority of stock in the region is now improving
in condition. Saleyard prices have been high and it is expected that
prices will be maintained if rainfall continues. Harvesting of winter
crops has continued with variable results as many of these crops lost much
of their potential yields due to earlier dry conditions.
South Region: The majority of the region received between 50mm to 100mm of
rain during the month, with falls of up to 100mm to 200mm recorded in the
south east. However, the limited pasture availability over winter is
likely to continue. Stock sold in fat condition have come off forage or
failed cereal crops. Storms have caused substantial damage on the Granite
Belt. Winter crop yields in the Maranoa are expected to be around median
but the hot, dry conditions experienced during September have reduced yield
expectations for crops on the Darling Downs and south west regional areas.
Surface water storages are low with little or nil inflow over recent
months.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Reasonable numbers of cattle are still moving to sale and
slaughter in the Mareeba stock district. Prices have been good. A number
of mustering operations will cease soon due to seasonal hot weather and
poor stock. Fires have affected much of the Peninsula and a fire north of
Cooktown has burnt out reserves of improved pasture. Feed quality has
dropped off considerably in the Malanda stock district but good quality
cattle are being presented at sale. In the Dalrymple Shire, breeders are
slipping, especially those with calves at foot, and are generally in store
to backward store condition. Most areas have little growth and any green
pick has been adversely affected by the hot dry winds in the past few
weeks. Quantity is starting to fall and quality is very low in most areas
while some areas are denuded. In the Georgetown stock district the quality
of available feed is poor with a majority of producers using supplements to
maintain stock condition. The extremely dry conditions in the
Innisfail/Wet Coast area were relieved mid month by a few days of soaking
rain but hot dry northerly winds have adversely affected any response to
pastures. The pasture situation is reaching critical levels in the
Townsville stock district and little quantity or quality remains.
Supplementation is widespread with many producers relying heavily on
molasses. Breeders are struggling while other classes are a little better
off. Early weaning is widespread.
West Region: In the North-West most agistment opportunities have
disappeared and livestock movements to southern markets continue. Pasture
quality and quantity at this time is normally extremely low and conditions
have been exacerbated by rainfall deficiency during the previous wet
season. The eastern portion of Boulia Shire has been experiencing a small
influx of stock from other areas, the result of having received rains
during May/June and being low in their own stock numbers. The remainder of
the Central-West remains unchanged with extremely isolated storms providing
some relief. Reports were received that falls of up to 75mm were received
around Barcaldine and north of Blackall, but these falls were very
scattered. In the South-West, the northern half of Murweh Shire still
retains some areas of reasonable quality pasture. Some scattered falls have
been received across this area maintaining the green shoot. The Cunnamulla
and Quilpie stock districts have had insufficient rain to change the
pasture picture. Large amounts of Mitchell grass and buffel grass tussocks
have died and new responses will have to originate from seed banks.
Central Region: Stock are improving in condition and pastures are
responding well from some patchy falls of rain from storms in the last part
of the month in Banana, Calliope and part Duaringa Shires. Numbers at the
fortnightly cattle sale at Moura have been down but the majority of cattle
were in reasonable condition and prices were good, especially for stores.
There are signs that condition of stock in northern Peak Downs and Belyando
Shires may be slipping. Some breeders have been returned to home
properties after being forced from agistment. Green pick that was
available has mostly dried off from the high temperatures and strong winds
experienced during the month. Condition of stock in Mirani, Broadsound,
Sarina, Mackay and Nebo Shires is generally just holding although there are
few isolated pockets where they are in good condition. Many producers are
supplementary feeding. Pasture conditions have diminished with very little
body left in certain areas, particularly around Nebo and the ranges.
Cattle are generally in fair to good condition in Bauhinia and south-west
Emerald Shires, although there are isolated areas of severely denuded
country where cattle are tending more towards poor condition. Pasture
reserves generally are short across the majority of the district. Rainfall
early in the month produced green pick in many areas though the lack of
follow up rain has precluded any substantial pasture growth.
South-East Region: In the Boonah/Beaudesert area, poor stock are now
responding to the rejuvenated pastures and many animals are now in store to
forward store condition. Pasture is short and green with a proliferation
of weeds and forbs and the quality is fair to good. There has been less
response to rain in the Cooloola district and many properties have denuded
pastures. Most breeders are in good order in the South Burnett with dry
stock in very good condition. Pastures have a green shoot and quality and
quantity in most of the area have improved significantly since receiving
rain. In the Central and North Burnett, most stock are in fair condition,
although this varies with the patchy season. Isolated rainfall events have
marginally improved pastures. Breeders are generally falling in condition
in the Bundaberg district due to the dry spring and very little pasture
growth. However, pastures have been responding well where storm rain has
fallen and dry cattle in these areas are in fair to good condition. The
amount of drought feeding varies widely depending on local rainfall.
South Region: Livestock condition ranges from Score 1 to Score 4 with
animals in the south west areas the poorest. There has been a continued
large turnoff of cattle through saleyard auctions. Cattle prices are solid
and sheep meat prices are high as a result of suitable numbers of slaughter
stock. The October rain has generated some pasture growth in the better
rainfall areas but follow up rain will be crucial for any substantial
production.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Ground preparation for summer crop planting continues on the
Tablelands. Hay production is occurring and the potato harvest continues
with fair yields. The tobacco harvest has generally been completed with a
few isolated crops still to be harvested. Yields, quality and prices have
been good. In the Bowen district the cropping season continues to wind
down. Production has generally been above last year's levels but returns
have been low due to oversupply. In the Tablelands/Mareeba area, a low
flowering due to dry conditions will see a large drop in lychee production
this year. The mango crop has also been downgraded due to poor flowering
and a large fruit drop. Sugarcane harvesting continues this month with
yields in the Burdekin generally well above average. The mild warm weather
has resulted in good growth of early plant cane. In the Herbert district
the season continues to give a mixed result and on the Tablelands the crush
is due to finish mid December.
Central Region: Most of the winter crop harvest has been completed in the
Dawson/Callide with yields and quality generally at or above average, but
market prices are lower than last year. Rain delays were experienced in
the last week of the month. Spring grain crops such as sorghum and
mungbeans planted early in September are progressing well, with storm rains
received in the first and last weeks of the month being ideal for improving
yield potential. Cotton crops planted early in the month have benefited
from the rain and overall crop prospects look good. Further rain should
result in good yields from the early spring crops and help refill soil
moisture profiles after wheat. In the Central Highlands wheat and chickpea
harvests have finished and producers are generally waiting for rain before
planting summer crops. Some spring sorghum has been planted in the areas
around Gindie and Orion and forage sorghum has been planted in some areas
around the Highlands. Conditions have been extremely hot and producing
some very strong hot winds which has resulted in wilting in some of the
spring sorghum crops.
South-East Region: Many winter crops lost much of their potential yields
due to dry conditions and harvesting has continued with variable results.
Planting of summer crop of peanuts, millet and sunflowers has begun. The
strawberry season in the Nambour area has finished with generally
favourable results. The macadamia harvest is completed and the stone fruit
season is continuing with some growers finishing very early in the season.
Rainfall has been adequate but there have been reports of some hail damage
to pineapples at Wamuran. In the Bundaberg area there has been very little
rain from the storms and tomatoes, capsicums, rockmelons, watermelons and
pumpkins are being grown. Some damage to avocados at Goodwood has been
reported. Cane harvesting has finished. In the Gatton district there has
been some useful rain but not enough to change the water situation. Late
winter crops such as lettuce and broccoli have been affected by rising
temperatures. Wild storms have caused severe wind and hail damage to
individual crops and farms in very narrow bands (100-500 metres wide and up
to 1 km long) and extreme winds and a dust storm resulted in wind erosion
to some paddocks. Most affected tomato crops will recover and achieve a
lower than expected yield and some early fruit will be marketable as
'seconds'. However some hail affected crops have been totally destroyed
and newly planted summer crops of capsicum, beans, rockmelon, watermelon,
tomatoes and pumpkins will be replanted in most instances.
South Region: The high temperatures and dry windy conditions in September
generally reduced yield potential significantly for crops in the Border
Rivers area, but late planted crops will benefit from October rain.
Rainfall has provided an excellent start for dryland cotton and sorghum
growers on the Darling Downs but the lack of subsoil moisture is of
concern. Rain has also been of benefit to late planted winter cereals.
Chickpea crops are now in the dry-down phase for harvest. In the Western
Downs/Maranoa, harvesting has started in the Roma district. Hot dry
conditions prior to this have reduced crop yield potentials. Good rain has
been received in the Miles district and it is expected there will be some
good wheat crops harvested. Scattered hail storms in the Granite Belt
caused damage mainly in the northern areas of Pozieres, Thulimbah,
Applethorpe and Cottonvale and were particularly severe on plums and
nectarines. A late frost the last week in September burnt stonefruit,
apple blossom, grape shoots and vegetable seedlings and crop loss varies
from property to property depending on topography. These events also
caused damage for apricot producers in Warwick Shire and reports indicate
that in some cases there has been total crop loss. A tornado in the last
week of October caused damage mainly in the The Summit/Glen Niven areas to
apple and cherry crops.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 47mm (109) Cairns A/P 8mm (44), Malanda
23mm (50), Ingham 31mm (47), Innisfail 58mm (n/a), Townsville 32mm (25),
Tully 58mm (n/a), Bowen 3mm (n/a), Charters Towers 15mm (n/a), Georgetown
3mm (18) and Normanton A/P 1mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 6mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville n/a (12), Boulia 1mm (13), Windorah 16mm (17),
Cloncurry 7mm(20), Mt Isa 0.0 mm (20), Longreach 16mm (18), Muttaburra 3mm
(22), Winton 4mm (16) and Charleville 34mm (31).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 20mm (34), Clermont 18mm (36), Springsure
61mm (42), Mackay 19mm (39), Yaamba 59mm (42), Biloela A/P 79mm (61), Mt
Larcom 124mm (59), Gladstone 99mm (61), and Theodore 46mm (64).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 38mm (66), Gayndah AP 69mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 50mm (71), Esk 105mm (82), Kilkivan 31mm (75), Kingaroy 106mm
(n/a), Nanango 86mm (79), Proston 59mm (70), and Beaudesert 120mm (74). On
the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 32mm (67), Maryborough 56mm (75),
Nambour 109mm (107) and Tewantin 92mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 97mm (67), Dalby 166mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 75mm
(n/a), Inglewood 115mm (58), Oakey 95mm (61), Pittsworth 69mm (67),
Stanthorpe 131mm (72), Toowoomba A/P 94mm (n/a), Warwick 107mm (n/a), Roma
52mm (n/a), Miles 55mm (n/a), St George A/P 48mm (n/a) and Taroom 44mm
(60).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Stock water supply in dams is critical in a number of areas
in the Mareeba stock district, in particular in the general area described
as Cooktown Hinterland with holes in the Endeavour River at extremely low
levels. The Mitchell River at Shelfo Crossing at Kowanyama is very low and
may stop flowing next month. Ground waters are becoming very seriously
depleted, but holding, in the Malanda stock district and surface water
supplies in some areas in Dalrymple shire are getting very low with high
evaporation rates resulting from hot dry windy conditions. Bore supplies
are adequate at this stage. Stock are mostly using the main watering
points in the Georgetown stock district and most dams are either low or
empty. Water supplies are adequate at present in the Innisfail/Wet Coast
area. Surface water is becoming scarce in the Townsville stock district
and most creeks have stopped flowing. Underground supplies are being
relied on and are holding at present.
West Region: Reports are being received that some property surface
storages are experiencing shortages and carting is in progress. Areas of
concern are the northern Tambo, western Isisford and western Blackall
areas. Reserves in rivers and watercourses have significantly receded.
Central Region: Despite showers throughout the month, many areas continue
to experience below average rainfall with the exception of a few centres,
in particular, Rockhampton. The widespread showers resulted in some small
stream flows but in most cases rainfall was too light to generate any
significant runoff and many streams still remain at low levels with no
flow. Stock water supplies are generally adequate in Banana/Calliope
shires as heavier storms have filled some creeks, gullies and dams.
However, in northern Peak Downs and Belyando shires, supplies continue to
dwindle with most producers relying on underground water for stock.
Supplies are generally very low in the Mirani, Broadsound, Sarina, Mackay
and Nebo Shires and vary across the Springsure Stock District.
South East Region: Some dams are near full to full from storm activity
with falls up to 90mm in the Kalbar/Roadvale/Mibong area. There has been
no stream flow or run off in the catchment area of Moogerah or Maroon Dams.
In the Beaudesert area there have been isolated runs in Christmas Creek
due to storms and some replenishment in the Logan River. Farmers on the
Mary River have reduced allocations and there has been no run-off to top up
any dams.
South Region: Some townships and many landowners are still relying totally
or partially on groundwater supplies due to some dams and surface water
storages being partially depleted or completely dry. Restrictions are
still in place throughout the Warwick and Toowoomba areas to maintain
levels of this resource. Rain over the region over the past few weeks has
produced some useful flows in many rivers and creeks. These flows have
partly replenished depleted stock and domestic supplies. There are still
some streams that remain dry. Storages such Chinchilla Weir, Allan Tannock
Weir, EJ Beardmore Dam and Coolmunda Dam have all experienced a decline in
storage levels over the past month.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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