SITUATION AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2003:
The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained
stable from the end of August (minus 1.1) through to the end of September
(minus 1.5). Based on the shift in value from the end of August to the end
of September it remains in a "Near Zero" (or neutral) phase and as at 2
October 2003 was minus 0.7. Based on this pattern there is a 40 to 50%
chance of getting above the long term October to December median rainfall
across most of Queensland. While these figures represent an improvement
over this time last year, they are not high enough to guarantee immediate
widespread drought breaking rain at this stage. For better chances of
seasonal conditions improving the SOI needs to return to more sustained
positive values.
As always when using any probability based forecast system, it is important
to consider the alternate view. For example, Emerald currently has a
relatively low 35% chance of getting above the long term October to
December median rainfall of 175mm. This also means that there is a 65%
chance of not getting above the long term 3 month median rainfall of 175mm.
Both the United States Climate Prediction Centre www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ and
the Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au/ continue to highlight that a
neutral sea temperature pattern continues to persist in the tropical
Pacific Ocean.
Overall, very little net change has been observed in SST anomalies in the
central equatorial Pacific over the last couple of months. Sea-surface
temperatures have remained close to average (temperature anomalies of -1 to
+1oC) with no strong signals towards the development of either an El Nino
or La Nina in the next few months. Subsurface temperature recordings have
also generally shown near average throughout the central Pacific. The south
east trade winds while varying have also been generally near normal.
STATE OVERVIEW:
September is generally one of the driest months of the year and the pattern
has continued this year with well below average rainfall recorded across
most of the State. Although August rainfall provided some green pick and
some much needed in-crop rainfall in some areas, the extremely hot, dry
windy conditions early in September had a detrimental effect on the
condition of stock, pastures and crops, resulting in some crops being baled
for hay. Early planted wheat was harvested in Central Queensland during
the month and the potato, tobacco and sugar cane harvest continued in the
north with mixed results. Water storages are severely stressed with almost
one quarter of the water storages across the State being less than 25%
capacity. There are currently 91 shires and 4 part shires drought declared
under State processes which represents 65.8% of the land area of the State.
There are also 186 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further
16 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: Apart from some rain in coastal areas, the majority of the
extensive grazing areas in the interior remained dry with no recorded
rainfall. With little pasture growth last growing season and the normal
winter decline, pasture conditions across the north are generally very poor
and producers are increasing their supplementation and destocking programs.
Cropping has been mixed with variations from total failures to near record
yields. The dry conditions impacting on the Herbert district are reflected
in a large increase in the number of properties granted Individual
Droughted Property (IDP) status this month.
West Region: The Western region is generally perceived to be a dominant
summer rainfall area and currently is in one of its driest months. The
region has experienced hot northerly winds and much warmer than average
temperatures with no beneficial rainfall for the month. Stock numbers
continue to decline as sheep and cattle exit the region but market prices
have been reasonably buoyant. Between 80% and 90% of the region has
insufficient pasture fodder to sustain stocking levels at greater than 30%
to 40% maximum. The lack of pasture bulk is a major concern and destocking
will continue.
Central Region: Stock condition continues to be lower than average in the
drier parts of the region where some losses are occurring. Elsewhere
cattle are in average to good condition but some are slipping with the
onset of the hot dry weather. Although the August rainfall boosted
pastures, it has dried off under the hot dry conditions early in the month.
Early planted wheat crops have been harvested with the later planted crops
at the ripening stage and generally progressing well. Some crops have
suffered from frost damage and moisture stress and have been baled for hay.
South-East Region: All centres in the region received well below average
rainfall making it a very dry month. Hot conditions have exacerbated the
poor conditions for pastures and crops. Significant rainfall is still
needed in all but near coastal areas to alleviate severe water shortages
and low soil moisture levels.
South Region: There was below average rainfall across the region and the
limited pasture availability has been a concern. Stock condition has
declined in general. Severe frosts in early August affected some of the
wheat crop in the Maranoa. Hot conditions in early September, coupled with
dry winds and no rain, have also had a detrimental effect on winter crops,
resulting in a drop in yield potential and further losses in wheat,
chickpeas and barley. Surface water storages are low with little or nil
inflow over recent months.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: In the Mareeba district cattle are losing weight and dry
lick and molasses are being fed. There is still a reasonable throughput
through the Mareeba saleyard. Feeding of supplements continues in the
Malanda stock district and condition scores are slipping as pastures lose
their nutritional value. Reports suggest that cattle numbers being sold
are increasing and prices have declined due to ample supply. Stock
condition in Bowen stock district ranges from score 1 to 5 depending on
location, rainfall and management factors. Most properties are feeding
some form of drought supplementation. Buffel pastures are haying off and
some properties are completely denuded. Stock condition is starting to
decline in the Normanton area with most properties starting to complete
their second round of mustering. In Charters Towers, stock condition is
slipping in breeders with supplementary feeding continuing on core stock.
Northern pastures have hayed off considerably and western and southern
grazing areas are in low condition. Feed supplies continue to decline in
the Townsville stock district and supplementary feeding is common. Stock
condition is declining parallel with the feed situation.
West Region: It is estimated that about 70% to 80% of properties in the
McKinlay and Richmond shires have insufficient pasture bulk to carry
stocking rates greater than 20% to 30% of the normal carried. Isolated
areas within Cloncurry and Flinders shires have reasonable feed quality and
quantity given the time of the year. The shires of Cloncurry and Mt Isa
have mixed conditions. Reports from Boulia shire indicate that conditions
remain patchy and Winton shire remains quite barren. The areas to the
south and east of a line from Aramac to Longreach are generally extremely
poor with the majority of properties continuing to reduce stock numbers.
The Blackall stock district has largely missed any rain and continues to
experience deteriorating conditions. West of the Barcoo River is the worst
area and the majority of properties have totally destocked or are well
below normal capacity. The northern half of the Murweh shire still retains
some areas of reasonable quality pasture. Generally the Cunnamulla and
Quilpie stock districts have had insufficient rain to change the pasture
picture. Stock numbers remain low, with an estimated stocking of 30%
across the area. Many properties are destocked.
Central Region: Stock have generally wintered well and are in good
condition as they calve in Banana and Calliope shires. Paddocks with
stands of pasture are showing a green tinge following earlier falls of rain
but there is still quite a bit of supplementary feeding being carried out
in Banana and part Duaringa shires. Numbers at the Moura cattle sale have
been below average but most are in reasonable condition. The condition of
stock across Belyando is still generally good with isolated pockets of less
than favourable store condition. Pasture condition is reasonable and
continues to hold as in the previous months. Throughout Mirani,
Broadsound, Sarina, Mackay and Nebo shires pasture conditions have
diminished with very little body left in certain areas, particularly around
Nebo and the ranges. Consequently condition of stock is deteriorating
rapidly with the onset of the hot dry spring weather. Stock condition
varies throughout the Fitzroy, Livingstone, Rockhampton, Mt Morgan and
Duaringa shires. Pasture condition also varies with areas to the north of
the Capricorn Highway having missed recent rainfall. Pasture quality and
quantity will deteriorate rapidly with the onset of warmer conditions in
the absence of rainfall.
South-East Region: The majority of stock in the region are still in strong
condition but are slowly deteriorating with the dry conditions in southern
areas. The situation in coastal areas is far better with stock in store to
forward store condition. Sale prices for all stock have been maintained
during the month despite the dry weather. Drought/dry season feeding is
continuing. While heavy frosts had affected the quality of pastures, areas
that have received good rainfall now have some green pick available for
stock but lack of rainfall has stopped any worthwhile growth. Around
Boonah pastures remain dry with pasture bulk decreasing rapidly.
South Region: Livestock condition ranges from score 1 to score 4 with
animals in the south-west areas the poorest. Frosts have caused pasture
quality, and consequently stock condition, to decline. Intensive livestock
industries such as piggeries, dairies and beef feedlots are dealing with
high costs of production. There has been continued large cattle yardings
and prices are solid, due in part to a decline in suitably conditioned
animals. The previous summer rain in general did not produce sufficient
pasture to carry average stocking rates over winter. There has been winter
herbage produced in the higher rainfall areas of the Downs and Maranoa but
hot dry conditions in early September have prevented further herbage
production.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Ground preparation for summer crop planting has commenced on
the Tablelands. The potato harvest continues with fair yields being
recorded. The tobacco harvest continues and yields have generally been
good. Some tomatoes and melons are still being picked in the Bowen
district. Yields have been good but prices poor for tomatoes due to market
oversupply. In the dry tropics the mango crops have set flowers and trees
are starting to drop excess fruit. On the Tablelands the mango crop is
reasonable but there has been poor flowering of the lychee crop.
Harvesting of sugarcane continued during September. Yields have generally
been well above average in the Burdekin district but the season has given a
mixed result in the Herbert district. In the southern and western areas
around Bambaroo and Stone River, the crop is drought affected but in the
northern areas the crop is yielding very well.
Central Region: Most of the early planted wheat crops in the
Dawson/Callide were harvested during the month with a return to average
yields and reasonable grain quality. Frost damage was greater than
expected in some crops and has resulted in some paddocks performing poorly
despite the potential for good returns. The later planted crop is now in
the late grain fill/ripening stage and is progressing well. Many of the
district chickpea crops have been, or are nearing harvest with yields
better than expected following frost damage. Pre watering and planting of
cotton crops in the Theodore district began late in the month. There has
been very little rain and soil moisture levels are very low in the Central
Highlands. The early harvested wheat has been mostly Prime Hard with low
yields but good quality. Many of the crops suffering from moisture stress
or frost damage have been grazed off or baled for hay. Chickpea crops are
currently being harvested with growers facing relatively high grading
losses due to small and damaged seed following the early August frosts.
However, yields are generally good considering the extremely dry season.
South-East Region: Winter crops have lost much of their potential high
yields due to dry conditions and many have been baled for hay. There are
large areas of cultivation ready to plant for summer crops and growers are
waiting for significant rain to allow planting of peanuts, sorghum and
corn. Green bean growers in the Gympie area and strawberry growers in the
Sunshine Coast hinterland have progressed well with their production with
enough water in dams, creeks and bores to see them through the cropping
season. Dry conditions continue to affect production of lettuce and
potatoes in the Gatton area and water is a continuing problem as bore
levels keep falling. In the Gayndah/Mundubbera district the citrus harvest
is continuing but prices have been unfavourable.
South Region: The hot dry conditions over the month will reduce the yield
potential of winter crops. Soil sampling has shown that moisture profiles
are very patchy across the Darling Downs which will impact on the
performance of the current winter crop. There have been varying degrees of
frost damage in winter crops but continued dry weather will have the
greatest impact on crop performance. In-crop rain is needed to finish the
crops. There has been no improvement in the water storage situation in the
Granite Belt this month and seedling suppliers report orders are down by
60% for summer vegetable production. Irrigation water is a major concern
coming into the warmer months and the limited water availability has
reduced new plantings of trees.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 25mm (122) Cairns A/P 2mm (33), Malanda
10mm (36), Ingham 4mm (33), Innisfail 13mm (n/a), Townsville 0.4mm (10),
Tully 34mm (n/a), Bowen 0.0mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a),
Georgetown 0.0mm (5) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 0.2mm
(n/a).
West Region: Birdsville n/a (4), Boulia 0.2mm (6), Windorah 0.0mm (9),
Cloncurry n/a (6), Mt Isa 0.0 mm (8), Longreach 0.0mm (9), Muttaburra n/a
(10), Winton 1mm (7) and Charleville 0.0mm (21).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 0.4mm (18), Clermont 0.0mm (15), Springsure
1mm (26), Mackay 0.0mm (15), Yaamba 1mm (24), Biloela A/P 5mm (26), Mt
Larcom n/a (22), Gladstone 0.6mm (24), and Theodore n/a (28).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 9mm (29), Gayndah AP 6mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 1mm (29), Esk 10mm (37), Kilkivan 2mm (31), Kingaroy 1mm (n/a),
Nanango 2mm (33), Proston 3mm (31), and Beaudesert 20mm (38). On the
coastal fringe Bundaberg received 4mm (30), Maryborough 18mm (29), Nambour
5mm (43) and Tewantin 3mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 19mm (38), Dalby 5mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 1mm (n/a),
Inglewood n/a (41), Oakey 4mm (32), Pittsworth 6mm (33), Stanthorpe 2mm
(48), Toowoomba A/P 4mm (n/a), Warwick 2mm (n/a), Roma 0.0mm (n/a), Miles
1mm (n/a), St George A/P 0.0mm (n/a) and Taroom 4mm (28).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Surface water storage supplies are extremely low in the
Mareeba/Normanton areas and limited in the Charters Towers/Bowen areas.
West Region: Reports are being received that some property surface
storages are experiencing shortages and carting is in progress. Areas of
concern are the northern Tambo, western Isisford and western Blackall
areas. Reserves in rivers and watercourses have significantly receded.
Central Region: Water supplies continue to diminish in the Belyando and
Peak Downs shires where many producers are continuing to clean dams and
build new storage while the opportunity is present. Water in Peak Downs
shire is still critically low and most producers are relying on underground
storage. There have been no reports of concerns for the availability of
water for stock purposes in Banana and Calliope but some properties in the
Duaringa shire have water problems.
South East Region: Central and southern areas of the region still require
significant rainfall to fill dams and run creeks and rivers. Lockyer
Valley farmers have low water supplies both for bores and stock water
supplies. Water supplies in the south-east corner also remain a major
problem. Farm dams are near empty again or are already dry. Producers in
these districts are carting water. There have been no stream flows on
regulated or unregulated streams. In the Mary Valley irrigation and stock
water supplies have deteriorated only slightly with the majority of farms
being in a significantly better position than this time last year.
South Region: Many water storages are severely stressed. Good runoff rain
is required to replenish storage supplies.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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