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07 Aug 2008

Autumn is the key time of the year when climate conditions can change quickly.

The 30 day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was minus 10.3 as at 3 May 2004. Based on the SOI pattern over March and April, rainfall probabilities are relatively mediocre (less than 50% chance of getting above median rainfall through to the end of July) across most of Australia. There is a more reasonable 50-70% chance of getting above median rainfall through to the end of July for the south-east corner of Queensland as well as for parts of the north Queensland tropical coast.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology's "El Nino Wrap Up" the current El Niņo-Southern Oscillation status remains neutral. However, there is an increased risk of an El Niņo developing this winter. This follows the sharp decline of the SOI during April, a westerly wind burst that developed in the western Pacific at the end of March, and the Bureau of Meteorology Ocean forecast model that continues to predict ocean temperatures consistent with an El Niņo by late winter. It is too early to say just how strong the subsurface warming will be and how far east a significant warming signal will go. Subsurface temperatures are presently cooler than average across the central to eastern Pacific, as are the surface waters.

Ocean and coupled ocean/atmosphere forecast models are used to show likely Sea Surface Temperature (SST) development out to nine months. Of eleven models that forecast out to September, eight indicate the continuation of a neutral SST pattern while three suggest the potential development of an El Nino (or warm) SST pattern. While it is positive that more than half of these models highlight a continuing neutral SST pattern (rather than an El Nino), given current conditions (especially the recent westerly wind bursts in the central Pacific) caution is recommended when considering the longer term outlook. This especially applies over March to June as most models fall away in their forecasting skill.

STATE OVERVIEW:

There was some useful rainfall across southern Queensland which will ensure widespread winter planting in the cropping areas. However the rest of the State remained relatively dry with patchy and variable falls. The dry conditions were helpful for summer crop harvesting. Stock are generally in good condition and pastures are beginning to hay off as the winter season approaches. Following recommendations from Local Drought Committees (LDCs), the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries has revoked the drought status of the following shires:

* Effective 01 April 2004 - Pine Rivers, Redcliffe, Caboolture, Caloundra, Maroochy. * Effective 08 April 2004 - Gayndah. * Effective 14 April 2004 - Perry and Kolan. * Effective 23 April 2004 - Warwick. * Effective 30 April 2004 - Roma Town, Bungil, Warroo, Bendemere

There are currently 63 shires and 4 part shires declared under State drought processes which is equivalent to 60.6% of the land area of the State. In addition, there are 131 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 14 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: Apart from some reasonable falls of rain late in April the region remains relatively dry with the exception of the wet tropics and the Tablelands, which have had a good season with crops, pastures and livestock generally in excellent condition. The cane crop has enough moisture to last through to harvest and pending weather conditions, another good crop is anticipated. The wet season was generally patchy and finished in February with little rain in March and April for the extensive grazing areas of the region. While pastures and stock have responded to what rain did fall, some producers are lightening stock numbers in case pastures will not sustain stock through winter.

West Region: Rainfall has been extremely variable with the majority of the falls occurring during the final week of the month. These falls will benefit the lighter country that will produce valuable herbage growth. However, the heavy black soil country will show very little response. Pastures have hayed off significantly with the current pasture conditions being the expectations of June/July.

Central Region: Rainfall was generally below average and was extremely low in areas around Mackay and west of Rockhampton. In the Dawson/Callide the harvest of sorghum, mungbeans and cotton produced average to above average yields while in the Central Highlands some of the sorghum crop yields were impacted upon by locust damage. Many crops suffered severe moisture stress and have been grazed off or baled for hay. Winter cropping prospects are uncertain to poor with a significant rainfall event needed to boost soil moisture reserves. Water storages in the Mackay area are still in need of replenishment to ensure irrigation supplies into the winter season. Cane in dryland areas is suffering severe moisture stress in many areas, particularly south of Sarina.

South-East Region: Many areas of the South East are the best that have been seen for many years. April has been dry with rainfall up to 30mm in some areas which has favoured harvesting of summer crops. Yields have been average to better than average. However, there are still many locations that require significant inflows to dams and watercourses.

South Region: There was useful rain throughout the region, with the Western Downs/Maranoa recording 50mm to 90mm and the remainder of the region up to 25mm and 50mm. The rain will ensure widespread winter plantings in the western cropping areas. There is excellent winter crop potential in these areas given the planting rain, time of year and subsoil moisture availability.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Good rainfall in Mareeba Shire has resulted in an excellent grass growing season and an improvement in stock condition. Stock are generally holding at store condition for breeders and forward store for non-breeders in Bowen Shire. Rainfall for the month was patchy and as a result only some areas have responded. In Etheridge Shire stock condition is normal/fair across most of the district with the exception of the drier areas in the south east of the shire. The pasture quality and quantity in this south east portion is very poor but the remainder of the shire is reasonable for this time of the year, with some areas having a very good season. Breeders in Charters Towers Stock District are at store condition or better and non-breeders are improving to forward store. Pasture condition has improved in those areas which received rain and daily temperatures have lessened allowing for better growth of seeded grasses. There are good stands of feed available in most areas of the Townsville Stock District and stock are in fair to good condition. In the Normanton Stock District stock condition is good and there is a good body of feed in most areas.

West Region: Stock condition across the region remains strong with low stocking rates contributing to condition of both pasture and stock. The lack of response in the Mitchell grass has impacted as the season progresses in the Central West. Soft herbages and annual grasses have melted under the dry conditions. In the South West some of the strong growth from floods has been damaged by locusts during the past weeks.

Central Region: Stock are in good condition in Peak Downs and Emerald Shires but pasture quantity and quality is patchy. Some areas have good stands of feed but others have missed quality rain. In Mackay, Mirani, Sarina, Broadsound and Nebo Shires stock are in good condition and holding well. There was excellent pasture establishing rain early in the year but there has been a lack of follow up resulting in diminished quality and quantity of pastures. Most areas of the Springsure Stock District have a fair to good body of feed and stock generally are in good to excellent condition. While pastures in most areas responded well to good rainfall during January/early February, many areas have received little rainfall of any consequence since. Stock are in average condition in Banana and southern Duaringa Shires. Pasture feed has dried out considerably especially in the Theodore/Moura area but there is still a reasonable body of feed on most places.

South-East Region: Stock are in excellent condition and drought feeding has now stopped. There are adequate and ample feed supplies to last properties until the end of the winter season. Some property owners may have to supplement stock with protein later in the winter as there is a large bulk of grass and protein levels will be low. Overall however, the majority of landholders in the region will have the best feed they have had for winter for many years.

South Region: There has been a major reduction in stock numbers due to prolonged drought periods and stock prices remain quite high. The good general rain and the resultant pasture response have alleviated the need for supplementary feeding. Pastures have seeded prolifically and the fresh growth brought about by rainfall has vastly improved the quality of pastures.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Tablelands harvesting of the peanut crop has commenced, the maize crop is in the later stages and starting to dry off and potato planting continues. Vegetable crops are being planted in the dry tropics and pumpkins and melons are being planted on the Tablelands. Tree fruit growers have completed harvesting and most have generally finished pruning. The cane crop is growing well.

Central Region: Sorghum, mungbeans and cotton crops have been harvested in the Dawson/Callide with average to above average yields. There are small areas of fallowed land from last winter that will require up to 75mm of rain to allowing planting. Soil moisture levels are low in many paddocks following the summer crop harvest and further rain will be needed before the end of June if a winter crop is to be planted in these areas. Variable yields have been obtained from the sorghum harvest in the Central Highlands and there has been some damage from locusts.

South-East Region: Summer crops are being harvested with average to better than average yields from soybeans and millet. There have been excellent yields from peanuts but prices are not as good as expected. A large amount of hay and forage has been made this year in view of the favourable conditions. The custard apple and persimmon harvest is continuing in the Nambour district and the mango and lychee harvest has now finished in the Bundaberg district.

South Region: Summer crop yields in the Border Rivers area have been variable depending on the timing of planting and subsequent rainfall events. After the rainfall at the end of the month, prospects for the winter crop are the best for a number of years and forage oats have been planted. There have been some very good sorghum yields on the Darling Downs. Soil profiles have been restored which should result in a large winter crop planting. It is also anticipated there will be a large winter crop planting in the Western Downs/Maranoa, due to the small area planted during summer and restored subsoil profiles. Oats have been planted. Vegetable growers on the Granite Belt have been able to increase planting of crops before winter.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 717mm (571) Cairns A/P 165mm (224), Malanda 243mm (174), Ingham 221mm (219), Innisfail 524mm (n/a), Townsville 54mm (61), Tully 674mm (n/a), Bowen 31mm (n/a), Charters Towers 29mm (n/a), Georgetown 20mm (35) and Normanton A/P 9mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 47mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (12), Boulia 4mm (14), Windorah 23mm (22), Cloncurry n/a (19), Mt Isa 2mm (16), Longreach 26mm (41), Muttaburra n/a (37), Winton 11mm (33) and Charleville 61mm (34).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 25mm (27), Clermont 8mm (43), Springsure 21mm (46), Mackay 107mm (154), Yaamba 13mm (53), Biloela A/P 21mm (45), Mt Larcom 18mm (56), Gladstone 11mm (54), and Theodore 21mm (49).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 42mm (50), Gayndah AP 26mm (n/a), Mundubbera 23mm (42), Esk 22mm (73), Kilkivan 41mm (66), Kingaroy 42mm (n/a), Nanango 52mm (57), Proston 26mm (52), and Beaudesert 29mm (82). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 28mm (70), Maryborough 58mm (87), Nambour 190mm (153) and Tewantin 193mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 58mm (52), Dalby 29mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 49mm (n/a), Inglewood 48mm (48), Oakey 21mm (47), Pittsworth 45mm (47), Stanthorpe 71mm (58), Toowoomba A/P 32mm (n/a), Warwick 59mm (n/a), Roma 57mm (n/a), Miles 0.0mm (n/a), St George A/P 29mm (n/a) and Taroom 9mm (41).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water storage supplies have been replenished in most areas but some places have had only grass rain with little run off for surface water supplies. Bore supply seems adequate as the water table has risen.

West Region: All water storages are full.

Central Region: Widespread showers were experienced across most parts of the region late in the month but were too light to generate any significant runoff. The recession trend for many streams in the region continued throughout April. Mackay streams and Waterpark Creek remain low.

South East Region: Major water storage facilities in Boonah shire remain quite low, but rainfall received will ensure household and stock water supplies until Spring. Surface water has been replenished in Monto shire and most bores have seen improved levels. In the Central and North Burnett surface water has been replenished in most areas and bore levels are improving. Bore levels remain low in the Lockyer Valley. Brisbane Valley water supplies are the best for some time as irrigation supplies are full and most farm dams have overflowed. Surface water supplies in the Gympie district have been replenished to maximum capacity.

South Region: Many water storages have improved the prospects for stock and crop production.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.