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page regenerated:
07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

A 'borderline' or 'Type 2' El Niņo event has developed in the central Pacific Ocean. While not constituting a 'full-blown' event the long-term implications for Queensland rainfall remain in terms of overall reduction in rainfall through the coming summer period. However, medium-term fluctuations in indices such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea-surface temperatures can provide what can be called 'relief rain' events with the current type of pattern. The latest 30-day average of the SOI is minus 7.2.

Compounding the issue of the current rainfall probabilities, it is worth noting that sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central Pacific from the international dateline running east towards South America remain warmer than normal (+0.5 to 1.5oC). While not in a "classic" El Nino sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, research has shown that the current SST pattern can suppress winter, spring and potentially, summer rainfall in eastern Australia. An 'El Niņo alert' status is still being maintained and DPI&F climate staff recommend producers maintain a cautious approach to farm management decisions and to routinely update climate information.

Rainfall during the June to August period was in the lowest 10% or lower for much of the State. With fluctuating SOI patterns, rainfall probability values based on the SOI phase system, have improved slightly for the September to November period. The southern and south-eastern section of the State has probability of exceeding median rainfall of about 60%. However, the rest of the State has values in the 30%-50% range.

The last passage of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) influenced our weather around the end of August/start of September helping trigger some useful rainfall totals especially across southern Queensland. If its current timing remains constant it will next be expected around mid October. The MJO is simply a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO to be a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events across much of Queensland.

STATE OVERVIEW:

The State continues to remain dry with most areas experiencing a decline in pastures resulting in supplementary feeding to maintain stock condition. Prices remain high and livestock are generally in good/holding condition for this time of year. Cropping yields have been low to moderate across most of Queensland with the north region showing promise of some above average returns. Water supplies appear to be adequate in the short term in most areas but storages have declined over the dry winter period. There are currently 46 shires and 8 part shires declared under State drought processes which represents 50% of the land area of the State. There are also 110 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 14 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: Coming to the end of August, the north region has just experienced one of the driest winters on record. With the coming months being the toughest for livestock, the north enters the later stages of the dry season. Pasture quality is at its lowest, thus prompting stockowners to destock their properties while cattle are in fair condition and market prices are good, rather than feed through the dry. Some producers will continue to supplement until a break in conditions occur. Cropping conditions have been ideal and generally all crops are growing well where irrigation supplies are adequate. The cane crush is progressing well with ideal harvesting conditions prevailing throughout the month.

West Region: The majority of the region has received no significant rainfall. The only relief came when a cloud front passed across the region towards the end of the month where reports of patchy rainfall were recorded from Mt Isa to Cunnamulla. With cattle condition generally Score 3, producers continue to destock their properties while livestock are still in reasonable condition. Stock condition however is attributed to lower stocking rates rather than pasture quality and quantity.

Central Region: With no rainfall being received during the month, the region has continued to dry out and is now really starting to show the effects. It has been observed that the leaves on some trees are dying which indicates that the ground has dried out to a serious depth, in spite of the relief rain earlier this year. Cattle prices are holding up well, giving producers the chance to keep numbers down and maintain income. Pasture quality is poor so supplementary feeding is being used to make best of available feed.

South-East Region: August continues to be dry and cool with rainfall up to 30mm received in some areas. Rainfall has been patchy across the region with coastal areas varying from 10 to 44 mm and inland areas from 3 to 30 mm. Significant inflow to dams and watercourses is still required. Stock appear to be in good condition considering pasture quality has declined, so supplementation feeding may be required to boost nutritional values of available feed.

South Region: Although stock condition has slipped somewhat and pasture growth has been below expectations, stock have managed to maintain average condition and this has resulted in strong cattle prices being achieved this month. Below average rainfall over the winter period has prevented the planting of a winter crop in many cases on the eastern Downs, although it is expected that crops to the west of the region will produce average yields even though a large number of crops have been fed or baled off. Pastures have hayed off with protein levels dropping. There have been reports of mice damage from Condamine, Glenmorgan and Billa Billa, over recent weeks.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Stock condition varies throughout the northern region with cattle ranging from excellent to Score 1. Trends in the Mareeba district show cattle are deteriorating although the western districts are better now than this time last year. Some areas of the Daintree are improving with the warmer weather and grasses are responding accordingly. Cattle in the Georgetown district are still in good condition with the only exception being around the Lynd and Kidston areas. Pastures are declining in line with the current season with the majority of producers now using supplementation in conjunction with normal feeding practices. The only exception appears to be around Georgetown where there is still a good body of feed, which is reflected by good stock condition. Feed in the Charters Towers district is being affected by dry southerly winds that have sapped moisture from the soil and pastures.

West Region: Stock condition currently remains strong and generally is Score 3. However, this is directly related to the low stocking rates rather than total pasture quantity and quality. Wet breeders are showing signs of slipping as the season deteriorates. Some properties in the North West have commenced supplementary feeding programs to assist stock with declining pasture quality and the amount of bulk pastures currently available may provide sufficient for later periods. Stock movements are variable along the northern line with some areas continuing to provide sale cattle to the south as producers lighten off. Pastures across the Central West continue to deteriorate and soft herbages and annual grasses have melted under the dry conditions. The lack of response in the Mitchell grass is now very obvious with large portions of blackened areas. Supplementary feeding has recommenced to assist stock with the low quality pastures. Conditions in north east Aramac Shire are reported to be critical as no effective rainfall has been received since the beginning of the year. In the South West, isolated rainfall occurred from Birdsville to Charleville in the last days of the month. Those properties fortunate to receive rain may gain some relief in freshening herbages which will provide sheep with valuable pick. Frosts across the area have resulted in deterioration of buffel pastures.

Central Region: Stock in the Central region are holding well considering the current climatic conditions. This can be attributed to lower than normal stocking rates and producers starting supplementation feeding prior to cattle slipping in condition. Pastures vary in most areas with a good body of feed in some places, but being in short supply in others. For the most part, quality is poor and the grass hayed off months ago. Supplementary feeding is making the best of the available feed. Properties that have destocked seem to be faring slightly better.

South-East Region: Overall stock are in good condition with the exception being lactating heifers and older cows with calves while fat cattle are still being turned off in most districts. There has been minimal actual drought feeding but the usage of lick blocks, urea based mixes and liquid type products has been high. Due to good summer pasture growth across the region, most areas have good body of dry standing feed although there will be a need for additional supplementation as the pasture quality is poor.

South Region: Strong cattle prices were maintained this month as most stock still remain in average body condition. Some grazing animals have slipped as a consequence of the cold, dry conditions and limited winter herbage production. There are isolated areas around the north east of the Wambo shire, where supplementary feeding has started earlier than what would be considered normal for this time of the year. Forage oats look promising, although the lack of rain has limited production. Licks have been used to utilise the available pasture although a lot has hayed off as a result of widespread frosts. Summer rain was good in most areas with carry over feed for winter. Stock water storages are adequate.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Tablelands, harvesting of early planted potatoes is occurring with some very good yields. Lupin and winter grain crops are growing well. Preparation has now commenced for the planting of a summer crop. Harvesting of stylos and legume seed crops is occurring with moderate to fair yields. On the Tablelands planting and harvesting of pumpkins and melons is occurring. Mango, avocado and lychee trees are having an extremely good season and are flowering well. The cane harvest continues across the north region this month with crops generally cutting to estimate and good CCS recorded to date. The dry weather has provided perfect harvesting conditions with minimal delays.

Central Region: Few wheat crops have been planted in the Central Highlands and many of those will only collect seeds and very little will be harvested due to a lack of moisture. Chickpea crops should be a little more successful, however it is expected that the crops will be low in yield. It is thought that about 100mm of rainfall would be required for new crop planting. Many farmers are being forced to graze valuable stubble. In the Dawson and Callide Valleys another cold spell was experienced early in the month however due to the dry conditions and lack of winter crop planted, this had little effect on crops. There are a few paddocks fallowed from wheat last year that may now be wet enough to plant spring sorghum or mungbeans.

South-East Region: Only small volumes of both cannery and fresh pineapples are harvested at this time of year when cool conditions reduce fruit quality resulting in low prices. The dry and cool winter has resulted in many leaf tips dehydrating causing yellowing and browning off. However, plants should recover well with warmer and wetter conditions. It has generally been a good strawberry season and although early yields may have been a little down compared to previous years, the dry sunny weather reduced disease pressure and helped improve fruit quality. The good dry harvesting weather continued through August for macadamia nuts, with the crop up on the previous year. However, continuing dry weather will cause soils to dry out too much, as most macadamia orchards are not irrigated.

South Region: It is expected that wheat crops in the Maranoa and western Downs will provide average yields. The yields that were predicted early in the season have been substantially reduced, as dry conditions continued over the critical planting and production phases. Many are now considering spring planting options. Only a quarter of available cropping area was planted on the eastern Downs. There have been reports of mice damage from Condamine, Glenmorgan and Billa Billa over recent weeks. Around the Granite Belt, tree growers have sufficient water to take them to the early part of next season, while vegetable growers have had production halved because of the dry conditions.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 9mm (103) Cairns A/P 10mm (22), Malanda 3mm (39), Ingham 50mm (37), Innisfail 14mm (n/a), Townsville 0.2mm (14), Tully 21mm (n/a), Bowen 6mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (3) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 13mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P 10mm (n/a), Boulia 2mm (8), Windorah 22mm (9), Cloncurry 4mm (4), Mt Isa 4mm (5), Longreach 6mm (14), Muttaburra 3mm (13), Winton 7mm (6) and Charleville 12mm (22).

Central Region: Alpha recorded n/a (22), Clermont 0.0mm (21), Springsure 0.0mm (26), Mackay 9mm (29), Yaamba n/a (26), Biloela A/P 0.0mm (27), Mt Larcom n/a (36), Gladstone 0.0mm (32), and Theodore 7mm (31).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded n/a (34), Gayndah AP 0.4mm (n/a), Mundubbera 0.6mm (34), Esk 25mm (35), Kilkivan 15mm (39), Kingaroy 7mm (n/a), Nanango 9mm (40), Proston n/a (35), and Beaudesert 12mm (43). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 3mm (38), Maryborough 0.6mm (45), Nambour 7mm (57) and Tewantin 7mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 17mm (38), Dalby 18mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 21mm (n/a), Inglewood 3mm (37), Oakey 27mm (30), Pittsworth 14mm (40), Stanthorpe 27mm (48), Toowoomba A/P 23mm (n/a), Warwick 29mm (n/a), Roma 14mm (n/a), Miles 21mm (n/a), St George A/P 18mm (n/a) and Taroom 7mm (31).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water storage is declining due to a lack of winter rain, although the cooler temperatures have limited evaporation. Bore supply seems adequate for this time of year.

West Region: All storages are adequate at present.

Central Region: Water supplies are holding in most places, but will deplete rapidly with the onset of hot, dry weather. West of Rockhampton, the Fitzroy River above Glenroy Crossing has dried up to the extent that boundary fences have had to be erected to stop cattle walking across. The coming months could become critical if surface water storages are not replenished.

South East Region: Surface water supplies appear to be adequate in general but there are some areas where water problems are beginning to surface. Generally, underground water for stock is sufficient except in the Lockyer Valley where water restrictions still apply. All major water storage systems levels have deteriorated over the last month due to the continual dry conditions.

South Region: Restrictions on the pumping of groundwater for irrigation purposes from aquifer systems on the Eastern Darling Downs have tightened due to the prolonged dry conditions that have depleted aquifer storage. These restrictions apply to all systems in the area. The restrictions will be ongoing until the demand on groundwater resources eases and significant recharge of the aquifer systems has occurred. Above ground storages continue to fall as there has not been any recharge for a number of months.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.