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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The 30 day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as at the end of December is minus 10. Based on the current SOI phase and available rainfall records there is only a 20% to 40% chance of getting normal rainfall for January through to the end of March across most of Queensland. The only exception is for the southern Border areas and parts of the Darling Downs and far south-west where probability values are a little higher at 40%-50% for the next three months. This does not mean there will be no rainfall at all for the three month period but that rainfall recorded for January to the end of March in the affected areas will, more likely than not, be below normal for this time of year.

It will be interesting to see what effect the first week of January passage of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will have on triggering rainfall events and intensifying the monsoon season across northern Australia. The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO to be a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events across much of Queensland.

At present, sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific are not in a classic El Nino pattern such as occurred from mid 2002 to mid 2003. However, SST in the central Pacific from the international dateline running east are warmer than normal. Research has shown that it is the central part of the Pacific Ocean that has a major impact on our seasonal outlook. When SST in this region are warmer than normal, there is an increased risk that our rainfall and water supply across eastern Australia will be below average. This pattern is described as a "borderline El Nino" and typically, a decline in rainfall is especially noticeable across eastern Australia during winter, spring and early summer. Further information can be gained by contacting the Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries (DPI&F) climate staff through the DPI&F Call Centre 13 25 23, for the cost of a local call in Queensland.

STATE OVERVIEW:

The rainfall in the latter part of 2004 has provided a reasonable to good start to summer with most areas of the State having received some rainfall. Reports indicate that there has been classic storm activity with small intense dumps of rain resulting in a wide variation in rainfall received, with some properties receiving excellent rainfall and others close by missing out. Livestock condition is generally good and high prices have been maintained. Pasture response varies depending on rainfall received and whether high temperatures have had a detrimental effect. Rainfall has provided good planting opportunities in many areas and crops are generally progressing well. There are currently 46 shires and 8 part shires declared under State drought processes which represents 50% of the land area of the State. There are also an additional 138 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 19 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: A trough moved through the region early in the month providing good general rain in most districts, although this was followed by very high temperatures prior to Christmas, which negated some of the positive effects from the earlier rain. Coastal areas continued to receive rain throughout the month and pastures and crops are growing well. Inland the follow up rain was a little patchier which limited further pasture growth. In the Peninsula districts there were some good falls late in the year and pastures have responded well. Planting of summer crops on the Tablelands has commenced following good planting rains late in the month. Overall the season has started reasonably well with widespread storm activity over much of the region although some inland areas have received little rainfall to date, such as the Charters Towers district, and will be looking for relief in January.

West Region: Several rain influences delivering some very beneficial falls moved across the region during the month. Generally an area east of a line from Cloncurry, Longreach, Blackall, Tambo, Charleville and Wyandra has had the best December start for three years. The rainfall recorded before Christmas has put the region in a good position to benefit from any future rain events.

Central Region: With above average rainfall in some shires this month and stock generally in good condition, many areas have received an excellent start to the season. Other areas though are still struggling and these districts may have a shortened season given the limited amount of rain received and the onset of hot dry conditions.

South-East Region: The majority of the South East region has received much welcomed follow up rain during December even though it was patchy. Falls varied between 100mm to 200mm in some areas which has benefited the region and promoted good pasture growth. Irrigation restrictions remain in place for many of the major streams and dams in the South East.

South Region: The South region has recorded some good rain during December and there have been substantial summer crop plantings and pasture growth. The best falls of 100mm to 200mm were recorded within the Border Rivers and western portion of the region. For the region to progress forward at this time of the year, regular follow-up rain is required, as prolonged hot dry spells could have a serious impact before winter.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: There is some good green feed in the Innisfail/Wet Coast area. Scattered storms in the Bowen Stock District have provided a good start to the season but follow up falls are required if the country is to recover sufficiently to enable a change in drought status. Pastures range from dry to good, green and growing, depending on which properties received the patchy rain. Pasture quality and quantity in the Georgetown Stock District is improving and the majority of stock are beginning to put on condition. Scattered rainfall has proved useful but dry southerly winds have sapped moisture from the soil and pasture in the Charters Towers Stock District. Stock condition continues to slip slightly for breeders to store/backward store condition with non breeders stable at store condition.

West Region: Generally the areas to the east of Longreach, Blackall and Tambo have had the best December start in three years. Pastures have responded very well to follow up rainfall. However areas south of Wyandra to Cunnamulla have had minimal rainfall and are generally in poor condition. Generally stock condition in the region remains strong as lower stocking rates are contributing to both the condition of pasture and livestock.

Central Region: In the Belyando and Jericho shires stock condition remains strong and pastures have responded well particularly in the lighter country. Around Peak Downs and Emerald stock are generally holding well with most cows with calves at foot in good condition. The quality of pastures is improving at this point in time and if further good rain is received over the coming months, this should put these pastures in a good position leading up to winter. In the southern districts of the central region stock condition overall is good. Many areas have plenty of good quality feed, although there are others that are experiencing poorer conditions. Pasture condition varies considerably due to the patchy rainfall. While some areas have recorded early rain, with continual follow up, other areas have received very little. Improved pastures have responded well to rainfall around Bauhinia producing a substantial bulk of pasture in many areas. Native pastures on lighter soils have also responded well though pastures on the heavier black soil country have been slow to respond. Stock are generally in good to excellent condition. In the Banana shire cattle are generally in good condition and there is currently a good body of stock feed.

South-East Region: Stock have responded well to the rain and are in fair to good condition. The majority of producers have now ceased supplementary drought feeding. Native pastures have responded well including the burnt areas from last month's bush fires. The storm rain that has been received has resulted in good pasture growth.

South Region: Pasture quality has generally improved following some good rainfall earlier in the month. This however does vary to some extent, as high temperatures have dried off some feed. Stanthorpe shire is currently showing a big body of feed with good nutritional value while Warwick shire is green but with very little body. Livestock are generally in good condition and Score 3 is average. The lighter country around Roma is recovering from a poor winter with some green pick and good pasture cover. The heavier country has improved following two good months of rain with pasture bulk establishing. Around Taroom cattle appear to be doing extremely well.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: The planting of summer crops, grasses and legumes has commenced on the Tablelands with timely rainfall providing excellent planting opportunities. Some growers have been irrigating peanut crops to ensure adequate moisture during the critical early growth stages. On the Tablelands the mango harvest continues. The lychee harvest has finished with growers achieving fair prices throughout the season. The cane crop is growing well with good rain in all growing areas. Farmers have generally been kept busy with weed control.

Central Region: The majority of the Central Queensland region has recorded some rain during December. Totals have varied significantly from 75mm to 135mm in most places with a few isolated pockets in the south that received up to 175mm. Generally there would be very few crops planted at the moment on a full profile of moisture, although some growers are now taking a chance on planting either a sorghum or forage crop.

South-East Region: The majority of intended summer crop planting has now been established. This has mainly comprised of peanuts, maize and forage crops with some sorghum planted as well. The rain received during December should assist in the production of these crops. Rockmelon growers have experienced fruit loss brought on by early November rain and hail storms. Avocado fruit set has been mixed with some areas reporting poor fruit set and others good. The variation may be due to the cooler weather during flowering thus limiting pollination. Pineapple growers faced lower than normal crop volumes during early spring and this may have been attributed to the long dry spell through last winter delaying the maturity of the spring crop. The situation has improved with the recent rainfall and warmer weather and harvest volumes are back to normal. Custard apple trees have been stressed by the dry winter weather causing increased flowering but good fruit set on hand-pollinated trees has been reported by growers. Lychee harvesting of the early season Tai So variety has commenced on a few farms.

South Region: There is a small sorghum area planted in the Border Rivers area which is progressing well as a result of good rainfall and no heatwaves. Conditions are also good on the Eastern Darling Downs with follow up rain in December from the November totals. The early planted sorghum crop is progressing well and more mungbeans and sunflowers are likely to be planted after further planting rains. Cotton crops are displaying a range of maturity with most in the late squaring and flowering stage but there was some minor hail damage to cotton crops in the St George area during the month. Follow up rain on the Granite Belt has been beneficial for orchardists and for vegetable plantings.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 250mm (331) Cairns A/P 253mm (190), Malanda n/a (146), Ingham 84mm (217), Innisfail 375mm (n/a), Townsville 113mm (148), Tully 279mm (n/a), Bowen 201mm (n/a), Charters Towers 42mm (n/a), Georgetown 240mm (112) and Normanton A/P 122mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 161mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P 7mm (n/a), Boulia 64mm (28), Windorah 5mm (27), Cloncurry 165mm (58), Mt Isa 176mm (62), Longreach 60mm (51), Muttaburra 76mm (59), Winton 40mm (51) and Charleville 56mm (53).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 118mm (85), Clermont 143mm (101), Springsure 169mm (107), Mackay 118mm (197), Yaamba 61mm (131), Biloela A/P 72mm (102), Mt Larcom 116mm (150), Gladstone 142mm (140), and Theodore 115mm (102), Yeppoon 106mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 189mm (86), Gayndah AP 142mm (n/a), Mundubbera 171mm (100), Esk 128mm (111), Kilkivan 240mm (124), Kingaroy 110mm (n/a), Nanango 95mm (108), Proston 77mm (108), and Beaudesert 188mm (128). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 94mm (138), Maryborough 133mm (134), Nambour 259mm (180) and Tewantin 212mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 89mm (109), Dalby 129mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 141mm (n/a), Inglewood 106mm (86), Oakey 118mm (93), Pittsworth 111mm (104), Stanthorpe 42mm (95), Toowoomba A/P 116mm (n/a), Warwick 69mm (n/a), Roma 104mm (n/a), Miles 118mm (n/a), St George A/P 157mm (n/a) and Taroom 119mm (104).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water storage is decreasing as increased evaporation is occurring in some areas. Bore supply generally seems adequate for this time of year.

West Region: All water storages are adequate at present.

Central Region: Although the majority of the central region has recorded rainfall during the month of December and on farm storages appear adequate, groundwater bores and aquifers still remain low.

South East Region: Runoff into major water storages increased levels by 2 to 2.5 % although more is needed. Water restrictions for irrigation purposes remain in place for many storages and streams.

South Region: Overall water supplies appear adequate to good in most areas. Some areas still need good flows.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.