SITUATION AS AT 29 FEBRUARY 2004:
Based on its shift in value from minus 12.8 at the end of January to plus 9
at the end of February, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is now
classified as being in a "Rapidly Rising" phase. A rapidly rising SOI
phase at this time of year creates a rather mixed seasonal outlook across
Queensland. Generally speaking, for much of the northern half of the State
there is a reasonable 60-80% chance of getting the long term March to May
median rainfall. This differs from south east Queensland where there is
only a 30-40% chance of getting the long term March to May median rainfall.
For the rest of the State there is no strong signal towards either wetter
or drier than normal conditions with a 50/50 chance of getting median
rainfall. When using probabilities or a percentage chance of something
occurring, it is important to consider the opposing view. For example,
while Charters Towers has close to a 75% chance of getting at least its
long term March to May median rainfall of 138mm this also means that there
is a 25% chance of not getting at least 138mm.
The early February rain in many parts of Queensland was due, at least in
part, to the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). This system passed across
Queensland in the first ten days of February. However it appears Cyclone
Monty affected its next development and therefore the next MJO is not
expected to affect us until late March. At this time of year the MJO can
intensify the monsoon season as well as help trigger cyclones if there are
any existing low-pressure systems in the Coral Sea. There is also the
potential for it to create westerly wind bursts in the central Pacific
after it passes over Australia. At this time of year (through to late
winter) westerly wind bursts in the Pacific can help trigger El Nino
events.
According to the Bureau of Met National Climate Centre (NCC) February
update (www.bom.gov.au/climate) the Pacific Ocean has remained in a neutral
sea surface temperature (SST) pattern. While SST are slightly warmer than
normal and there was some weakening of the south east trade winds, the
Bureau do not believe there is a strong likelihood of an El Nino developing
in the short term. The Bureau also state that the recent Kelvin Wave of
sub surface warming should have only a minor impact on SST in the eastern
Pacific when the wave reaches the South American coast in the next two to
four weeks. This differs from the comments made by the United States
Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ in their February
update where they placed a lot more emphasis on the December MJO passage
and the effect it had on producing a Kelvin Wave.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Useful rain fell across most of the State during February. The response in
pasture growth has been very good in most areas but extremely variable in
the west. There are large areas planted to summer crops although heatwave
conditions have affected pastures and slowed the growth of crops in some
areas. Stock condition is generally good and prices high. There are
currently 95 shires and 4 part shires drought declared under State
processes, which represents 66.5% of the land area of the State. There are
also 141 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 16 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: The wet season continued this month with heavy monsoonal
rain falling during February. Areas of local flooding occurred but no
damage to property or livestock was reported. In the extensive grazing
areas, pastures and livestock continue to improve following on from good
rainfall early in the season. The cropping outlook remains good but water
restrictions may impact on this season's crop. The final sale of tobacco
occurred in Mareeba this month ending a 74 year history in North
Queensland.
West Region: Responses in pasture growth following the January rains have
been extremely variable. Many areas of the heavy Mitchell grass Downs
country have not responded as well as expected. The main form of response
has been from herbages and weeds and these have melted away following the
high temperatures during early February. Grasses which have responded have
now seeded and are beginning to hay off and another fall of rain of at
least 50mm will be needed to freshen these areas up before winter. Non
responsive areas will require much higher falls to produce any reasonable
bulk before winter. In some areas locust numbers are impacting on
pastures.
Central Region: There were some good falls of rain across the region
during February but they were not widespread. Stock are generally in good
to excellent condition and there has been a good pasture response, with
most areas carrying a good to excellent body of feed. There have been
large areas of sunflowers, sorghum and mungbeans planted. Some paddocks
planted to Spring crops are currently being fallowed for winter crop
planting and prospects at this stage look good given the rainfall received
over the past few months. Further rain during the next month should see
early winter crops planted during April.
South-East Region: While rainfall has not been significant during the
month, conditions have been very favourable for agriculture in the region.
Heatwave conditions have slowed growth in crops and necessitated the
replanting of some horticultural crops. Low dam levels and bore levels in
the Boonah, Beaudesert, Lockyer Valley and Burnett continue to cause
concern.
South Region: There was useful rain throughout the region during the month
and the widespread January and February rain has continued to improve
pasture conditions. Summer crops have also benefited from the rainfall and
the improved subsoil moisture levels will improve the winter crop
potential.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Livestock condition in the Mareeba Stock District has
improved and reports indicate a good, although late, calving season.
Pastures have responded well to rain and the hot and humid conditions.
Pasture is of good nutritional quality and has gone to seed in the Malanda
Stock District and cattle conditions reflects this. All stock are holding
at store to forward store in the Charters Towers Stock District and most
areas have had rain that has revitalised and regenerated pasture.
Livestock in the Bowen Stock District range from score 3 to score 5 and
most properties have stopped feeding supplementation. Some areas responded
to the rains very rapidly and properties that received some follow up falls
have obtained continued pasture growth. In the Georgetown Stock District
the majority of stock is in good condition. Pasture quality and quantity
is good as most areas have had good grass rain. There are good stands of
feed available in the Townsville Stock District. Stock have responded
well and in most areas are in strong to forward store condition and
improving.
West Region: In the North West, pasture response has been fair to good but
the Mitchell grass has not responded significantly. Follow-up rains are
needed to improve responses in pasture growth. In the Central West, follow
up rains are also needed to freshen pastures before winter. Response
across the area is variable and much of the Mitchell grass country has not
produced adequate bulk. Areas that had flood out from rivers and streams
have responded with reasonably strong grass and herbage growth in the South
West. As the dominant pasture in the Charleville area is buffel grass, its
response to recent rains has been excellent. Follow up rains are essential
to ensure continued growth for the winter period.
Central Region: Condition of stock is good to excellent. For the most
part there is a body of feed ranging from good to excellent, although there
are some areas that have missed rain.
South-East Region: Stock across the region are now improving markedly in
condition. Store cattle prices have been very good over the month,
however, prime cattle prices have been good but are declining. The
widespread rain across the district has produced an excellent flush of
green pastures. Areas that have had significant rainfall now have adequate
pasture growth for the short term but heatwave conditions have dried
pasture off and more rainfall is required to ensure a good winter season.
South Region: Cattle and sheep prices are strong. Livestock condition
ranges from score 2 to score 4 and the good general rain and resultant
pasture response have alleviated the need for supplementary feeding.
Pasture growth for the past twelve months has been average compared to
historical values, however, due to rainfall, pasture biomass has improved.
This will greatly improve the potential to carry stock over the winter
months.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Planting of capsicums, tomatoes and melons has commenced in
the Dry Tropics. A late planting of peanuts occurred in the Lakeland Downs
area this month due to wet weather delaying any earlier planting
opportunities. On the Tablelands, maize and peanut crops are growing well
and storms have been providing good follow up rain. Pasture seed
harvesting of Signal grass, Rhodes grass, Gatton Panic and Setaria was
completed this month with good production and yields recorded. The Rhodes
grass market remains depressed but returns for the others remain fair. On
the Tablelands the avocado pick continues with average yields and there are
still some crops of late mangoes being harvested. Dry conditions early in
the growing season in the wet tropics have affected banana quality with a
size reduction and some discolouring. There has been some fruit and root
rot in papaya trees due to the wet conditions. Generally across the region
the cane crop is growing well.
Central Region: Large areas of the Central Highlands are now planted with
sorghum, mono sunflowers, poly sunflowers and mungbeans and crops are
generally doing well. There were some light showers earlier in the month
but no substantial rainfall during February. February has been a
reasonably wet month for the Dawson/Callide valleys, with some very hot
days between rainfall events which have affected some crops. Mungbeans
that were flowering during the heat have aborted flowers, reducing
potential yields but most of the sorghum crops seems to have suffered
minimal losses at this stage. Yield potentials for the summer crops in the
ground at the moment look quite good as a result of the good seasonal
conditions. Cotton picking began during the month but at this stage it is
too early to comment on yields and quality.
South-East Region: The summer planting of crops has generally been
completed and large areas of sorghum, corn, sunflowers, millet, soybeans
and peanuts have been planted. Although some property owners have been
unable to plant due to the alternating wet/dry conditions and as a result
there have been late plantings of corn, millet and beans.
South Region: The good rain in the Border Rivers area has replenished
water storages and this will benefit the cotton crop next season, although
there has been some waterlogging damage in irrigated cotton. Rain has
enhanced summer and winter crop prospects on the Darling Downs. Sorghum
and maize crops have benefited significantly from rain while rain effects
for pulse crops have been mixed, with young mungbean crops planted prior to
the rain suffering from high temperatures and subsequent waterlogging
following the rain. There has been good follow up rain in the Roma
district this month. However, this was too late for a large summer
planting with most growers opting to wait for a winter crtop planting later
in the year. The rain has replenished soil water reserves and benefited
the few early planted sorghum crops. The good rain in the St George area
has prompted some summer forage planting. Vegetable growers in the Granite
Belt should be able to increase planting of crops before winter because of
excellent rainfall and there is now sufficient irrigation water for tree
and vegetable crops until the end of the season.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 744mm (738) Cairns A/P 667mm (422), Malanda
540mm (286), Ingham 431mm (410), Innisfail 526mm (n/a), Townsville 374mm
(232), Tully 923mm (n/a), Bowen 165mm (n/a), Charters Towers 76mm (n/a),
Georgetown 111mm (208) and Normanton A/P 274mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 387mm
(n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (21mm), Boulia 133mm (41), Windorah 44mm
(45), Cloncurry 85mm (97), Mt Isa 122mm (86), Longreach 81mm (69),
Muttaburra 95mm (71), Winton 58mm (80) and Charleville 77mm (55).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 41mm (81), Clermont 52mm (104), Springsure
73mm (113), Mackay 186mm (302), Yaamba 47mm (127), Biloela A/P 213mm (83),
Mt Larcom 151mm (129), Gladstone 123mm (140), and Theodore 82mm (90).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 126mm (81), Gayndah AP 122mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 121mm (74), Esk 149mm (100), Kilkivan 145mm (94), Kingaroy 89mm
(n/a), Nanango 91mm (66), Proston 71mm (77), and Beaudesert 204mm (109).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 233mm (148), Maryborough 300mm
(163), Nambour 184mm (224) and Tewantin 163mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 69mm (87), Dalby 85mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 50mm (n/a),
Inglewood 40mm (68), Oakey 115mm (84), Pittsworth 70mm (76), Stanthorpe
86mm (82), Toowoomba A/P 86mm (n/a), Warwick 100mm (n/a), Roma 70mm (n/a),
Miles 9mm (n/a), St George A/P 22mm (n/a) and Taroom 103mm (76).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Surface water storage supplies have been replenished in
most areas but some places have had only grass rain with little run off for
surface water supplies. Bore supply seems adequate as the water table has
risen.
West Region: Flooding in all major rivers and streams has provided much
needed replenishment of surface water storages.
Central Region: Many creeks have had a fresh of late and most dams have
adequate to abundant supplies of water in the Banana/Calliope area. There
have been no reports of water shortages across the region, although some
dams around the Rockhampton and adjoining stock districts have not yet
filled. Widespread storm rain fell across most parts of the region
although totals were still less than average for February. This rain
caused small to moderate flows in streams in the Fitzroy and some higher
flows in the west. There have been considerable water harvesting
opportunities in the Fitzroy and some environmental releases were made in
the Boyne. Mackay streams and Waterpark Creek remain low.
South East Region: There has been replenishment of many farm dams due to
storm rainfall and flows in a minority of streams. The storm rainfall and
varying distribution has meant that even in local areas some dams are full
while others still await useful run-off. Significant rainfall to run
watercourses is still needed in all areas.
South Region: Many water storages have improved the prospects for stock and
crop production. The southern and south-eastern districts of the Granite
Belt have full weirs on the Severn River and Accommodation Creek. Dams
relying on runoff are at 80%-100%.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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