Both the United States Climate Prediction Centre www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ and
the Australian Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au/ state that at present
a neutral Sea Surface Temperature (SST) pattern can be found in the
tropical Pacific Ocean. However, some re-warming of SST in the central
Pacific and the potential return of westerly wind bursts to this region
(especially after the current passage of the MJO) have increased the risk
of 'El Nino-like' conditions to develop this coming winter. While it is
positive that around half of the ocean and coupled ocean/atmosphere
forecast models highlight a continuing neutral SST pattern (rather than an
El Nino), given current conditions caution is recommended when considering
the longer term outlook. It is also worth remembering that at this time of
year most models fall away in their forecasting capability for a few months
as we enter the autumn period. So unless there is a very strong event
coming as in 1997 (but which had little effect here on rainfall) then some
models do not tend to show an El Nino event until mid winter.
Research has shown that in summer the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO or 40
day wave) can intensify the monsoon season as well as help trigger cyclones
if there are any existing low-pressure systems in the Coral Sea. There is
also the potential for it to create westerly wind bursts in the central
Pacific after it has passed over Australia. Further, at this time of year
(through to late autumn) westerly wind bursts in the Pacific can help
trigger an El Nino event. The last passage of the MJO influenced our
weather in late December. It helped produce some useful but patchy
rainfall mainly across eastern Queensland (with much of south west and
central Queensland missing out).
STATE OVERVIEW:
Widespread but patchy rain fell across the State during the month with
flood warnings on gulf, western and many coastal rivers. Severe hail storms
were experienced in the Granite Belt with damage to vegetable, stonefruit
and wine grape crops. Stock condition is generally good and prices are
high. Pasture response has been excellent in many areas but variable in
some parts of the central west. The rain has been of benefit to early
planted summer crops, has provided an opportunity for some late planting
and added to soil moisture reserves in fallowed areas that will be useful
when winter crops are planted. There are currently 95 shires and 4 part
shires drought declared under State processes, which represents 66.5% of
the land area of the State. There are also 140 Individually Droughted
Properties (IDPs) in a further 15 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: Monthly rainfall across the region was average to slightly
below average but has been beneficial and provided good relief. In the
coastal areas crops have responded well. Surface and groundwater levels on
the Atherton Tablelands remain low and groundwater levels are low in the
Bowen delta and replenishment is needed to guarantee this season's crops.
Generally across the region livestock condition has improved due to
rainfall during December and January. Pasture condition has improved with
a visible increase in length and thickness. Surface water supplies have
been replenished in most areas but some places have had limited runoff.
West Region: A major rainfall influence moved slowly across western
Queensland during the month delivering some excellent rainfall and
associated flooding, with some rivers and streams recording near record
levels. Totals of up to 400mm were received. The response from pastures
has been extremely variable, with areas that received pre-Christmas rain
responding extremely well but those receiving their first rainfall during
early January showing very limited or no response. Rainfall tended to
become more patchy south of Charleville into the Cunnamulla area, and
virtually ceasing towards Thargomindah. However, flooding from the Paroo,
Warrego and Bulloo river systems will provide benefits for those graziers
with frontage to these systems.
Central Region: Rainfall in January ranged from above average in western
parts trailing off to below average totals in the Mackay area, with average
totals elsewhere in the region. These falls have boosted hopes for a much
improved summer cropping season, particularly in the Central Highlands
where growers have missed crops in the last three years. A large area of
sorghum has been planted in the Central Highlands and in the Dawson/Callide
spring planted grain sorghum was harvested during January. Small areas of
early mungbeans were also harvested. Stock and pasture condition have
generally responded well across the region. Rainfall received this month
has improved the outlook significantly but the late start to the season
means that substantial follow up falls are required to provide a longer
term benefit in both the cropping and grazing sectors.
South-East Region: Significant rainfall has been received in many parts of
the region with totals of up to 200mm for the month. However, falls were
patchy and many areas still need considerable rainfall to run watercourses
and fill dams. Locations that have received good rainfall have had surface
waters replenished.
South Region: Hot, dry conditions persisted earlier in the month but from
the middle of the month falls of between 100mm-220mm were recorded. There
has been good pasture response to the rain with good to excellent stands of
native and improved pasture reported in many areas. Earlier planted summer
crops have also benefited from the rain and there has been some late
planting of sorghum in the region.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Cattle and pastures have generally responded well to the
rainfall in the Mareeba Stock District, although some properties are
reporting that ground cover is not complete and some denuded areas are
still evident. In the Georgetown Stock District stock condition is
improving and the majority of the area has a good cover of green grass. In
the Charters Towers Stock District, stock condition has improved due to
recent rainfall and subsequent pasture growth with breeders generally now
at store condition or better and non-breeders improving to forward store.
Rain has revitalised and regenerated pastures in most areas, with southern
areas showing a greater improvement. Supplementary feeding is still
continuing but more as production than survival. In the Bowen Stock
District the country along the coast around Bowen and north to Gumlu is
still experiencing very dry conditions. Pastures have responded rapidly to
the rains, but only the properties that received follow-up falls have
achieved continued pasture growth. The hot, dry northerly winds have
sucked some of the moisture from pastures. Feed is abundant in most areas
of the Townsville Stock District and stock have responded to improved
seasonal conditions.
West Region: Following the rainfall event, some stock losses were reported
in the North West but these were minimal and confined to the aged breeder
group. Pasture response has been fair to good, with herbage growth being
immediate. As expected, the lighter country has responded well.
Properties on the Downs country have reported only a minimal response from
the Mitchell grass at this stage. Pasture response in the Central West has
been extremely variable and dependent on whether areas received the
pre-Christmas rain. Mitchell grass Downs country is most affected but
useful feed is being produced from button grass, native panics, brown top
and other grasses and herbages. Stock losses have been minimal. In the
South West the buffel grass response to recent rains has been excellent but
the Mitchell grass country has been slow to respond. Follow-up rains
across the region are essential to ensure continued pasture growth for the
winter period.
Central Region: In Belyando and northern Peak Downs shires pasture is in
excellent condition following the December rain with both native and
improved pastures responding. Condition of stock continues to improve.
Stock have generally improved in Mirani, Broadsound, Sarina, Mackay and
Nebo shires and pastures are recovering well. There is now reasonable
ground cover, particularly in coastal areas. In Bauhinia and south west
Emerald shires cattle are in fair to excellent condition and improving.
There has been an excellent response from pastures in most areas but
severely denuded black soil country in western areas of the district have
been relatively slow to respond as native grasses have all but died out and
are having to regenerate from seed. The majority of stock in north-west
Banana/south Duaringa shires are in good condition. There is a good body
of feed available although the heat during the last two weeks of the month
took its toll and most grass has dried out. There have been no reports of
supplementary feeding to any degree. Prices at the local cattle sale have
been very good. Condition of stock in Duaringa, Fitzroy, Livingstone,
Mount Morgan and Rockhampton shires is generally good to excellent, but
cattle in some areas have not yet had time to respond. Pasture quality is
excellent but quantity is variable, as some areas have still not had enough
rain to produce a big body of feed.
South-East Region: Stock across the region are now improving markedly in
condition and the green pasture and the follow-up rain received has ensured
a welcome break for stock owners. Saleyard prices have increased as
stockowners hold onto their remaining animals. It is expected that prices
will remain high as supply will be short and overseas demand increases.
The widespread rain across the district has produced an excellent flush of
green pastures. Some areas have had more rainfall and as a result pasture
bulk varies.
South Region: Livestock condition ranges from score 2 to score 4. Cattle
and sheep prices are strong and there was a surge in wool prices this
month. The good general rain should alleviate the need for supplementary
feeding. Pasture has responded positively to the rain and the fresh growth
has vastly improved the quality of the pastures. Stanthorpe Shire
experienced severe hail storms in the last week of the month. Losses were
reported to lettuce and capsicum crops in the Cannon Creek/Thulimbah area
and to small mixed vegetable, stonefruit and wine grape crops in the Glen
Aplin to Severnlea area.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Planting of summer crops of maize and peanuts finished early
in the month and the first period of crop growth has been excellent. Areas
dedicated to pasture seed production are generally down from last year due
to a change in a key market for Rhodes grass but those pastures that are in
production are growing well. The majority of Kensington Pride and R2E2
mangoes have been harvested on the Atherton Tablelands with only the late
season varieties to be harvested over the next two months. The majority of
lychees have finished for the year with prices being good. Some Shephard
avocadoes have been picked with the majority of the crop expected in
February/March. Currently yields are expected to be medium to high but
fruit size may be down. The sugar cane crop in the Burdekin is growing
well and growers are irrigating as required with some assistance from rain.
Excellent growing conditions in the Herbert district have assisted the
recovery of cane crops in many of the drought affected areas, but more rain
is needed.
Central Region: The Central Highlands received widespread but patchy
rainfall during January, with the northern areas generally receiving more
rain than the south. This has resulted in a large area planted to summer
crops, mostly sorghum, but some mung beans, with potential for a large area
of sunflowers. There have been reports that intense storms caused
significant damage in terms of soil erosion and contour banks, mainly in
the Capella district. There was useful, but patchy, rainfall across the
Dawson/Callide during the month. A few areas of spring planted grain
sorghum and small areas of early mungbeans were harvested. The rain has
ensured good yields from the sorghum, mung beans and millet planted in
December and replenished fallow paddocks reserved for winter planting.
South-East Region: Large areas of sorghum, corn, sunflowers, millet,
soybeans and peanuts have been planted. There may be late plantings of
corn, millet and beans as some property owners have been unable to plant
due to the alternating wet/dry conditions. The rainfall has meant there
will be extra weed pressure on all crops and the possibility of disease due
to high humidity. Lychees and mangoes are now being harvested in the
Nambour district and it is expected that heatwave conditions will affect
fruit quality. Currently the Bundaberg district is in a quiet production
period but planting of crops such as tomatoes, capsicum, eggplant and
zucchini will take place in February for the autumn cropping season. Good
prices are being received for the lychee and mango harvest.
South Region: Subsoil moisture on the Darling Downs is reasonable.
Sorghum, maize, soybeans and cotton crops that have been planted will
benefit from the rain. There has been a fairly large area of sorghum
planted following rain in late October. Summer crop planting commenced in
the Western Downs/Maranoa after December rain. However, there were large
areas that were unable to plant because of insufficient rainfall. The
January rain has initiated further sorghum planting over the district.
Severe crop losses were reported in Stanthorpe Shire due to hailstorms in
the last week of the month.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 283mm (639) Cairns A/P 316mm (397), Malanda
208mm (267), Ingham 144mm (398), Innisfail 373mm (n/a), Townsville 207mm
(244), Tully 410mm (n/a), Bowen 145mm (n/a), Charters Towers 153mm (n/a),
Georgetown 310mm (227) and Normanton A/P 186mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 180mm
(n/a).
West Region: Bedourie 14mm (37), Boulia 44mm (56), Windorah 108mm (40),
Cloncurry 250mm (122), Mt Isa 392mm (96), Longreach 199mm (67), Muttaburra
104mm (91), Winton 207mm (78) and Charleville 163mm (70).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 141mm (102), Clermont 171mm (102),
Springsure 168mm (101), Mackay 150mm (268), Yaamba 98mm (120), Biloela A/P
120mm (92), Mt Larcom 157mm (138), Gladstone 277mm (150), and Theodore 88mm
(100).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 114mm (101), Gayndah AP 134mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 101mm (105), Esk 186mm (132), Kilkivan 182mm (142), Kingaroy
300mm (n/a), Nanango 255mm (110), Proston 244mm (95), and Beaudesert 252mm
(123). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 225mm (202), Maryborough
214mm (164), Nambour 249mm (276) and Tewantin 163mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 173mm (94), Dalby 173mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 223mm
(n/a), Inglewood 154mm (82), Oakey 158mm (83), Pittsworth 14mm (85),
Stanthorpe 233mm (102), Toowoomba A/P 191mm (n/a), Warwick 164mm (n/a),
Roma 223mm (n/a), Miles 153mm (n/a), St George A/P 83mm (n/a) and Taroom
205mm (94).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Surface waters have been replenished in most areas but some
places have had limited runoff. Most properties in the Mareeba district
report some dams filled with those on soft catches either empty or still to
fill. In the Georgetown district most dams are either full or near full
and all the rivers and main creeks are flowing. Bore supply is adequate in
the Charters Towers district and surface and underground water supplies are
generally adequate in the Bowen area, although some very isolated patches
have limited supplies of surface water. The Don River and Euri Creek have
had limited flows during the month, so some recharging of the aquifers
should have occurred. Surface water availability has improved in the
Townsville Stock District with most creeks now running to some extent.
West Region: Flooding in all major rivers and streams has provided much
needed replenishment of surface water storages.
Central Region: Storm rain was responsible for good rainfall totals across
the region in January. Best falls were in the previously driest areas in
the Comet, Nogoa, Theresa, Dawson and the Central West. The runoff
produced some small to moderate flows in streams in all areas with the
lowest flows being in the Isaac. Mackay streams and Waterpark Creek remain
low.
South East Region: There has been replenishment of many farm dams due to
storm rainfall and flows in a minority of streams. The storm rainfall and
varying distribution of rainfall has meant that some dams are full while
other areas are still awaiting useful run-off. Significant rainfall to run
watercourses is still needed in all areas. In the Lockyer Valley the
rainfall has reduced the irrigation needed in the short term which has
alleviated the stresses of previous weeks where crops had to handle
heatwave conditions. Around 50% of bores in this area are at historic
lows.
South Region: The majority of creeks have had some sort of flush through
them. Generally dams are full or near full. There have been a number of
reports from the Darling Downs of broken ring tanks or major leaks causing
water loss.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
