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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

Following considerable fluctuation, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained in negative values with a 30-day average of minus 8.0 as at 10th August. Based on the recent "Consistently Negative" phase of the SOI (minus 13.9 at the end of June and minus 6.4 at the end of July) it is more likely than not, that spring and early summer will be drier than normal. For example at present there is only a low 10-30% chance of getting above the long term August to October median rainfall across most of Queensland.

There are a few locations in the south-east coastal areas of the state with higher values in the 40% range. The lowest chance of getting above the long term August to October median rainfall can be found in the southern and central inland areas. It is worth noting that these rainfall probability values refer to the rainfall over the total August to October three month period. It also does not mean that we miss out on rainfall altogether, but that in most years like the current year, below the long term median rainfall overall is recorded over the next few months.

There has also been some renewed speculation in the media regarding the El Nino situation this year. Although technically we are not at present in a "classic" El Nino sea surface temperature pattern, the continuing low SOI values are a result of a warm sea surface temperature pattern in the central Pacific. As well research from the Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries (DPI&F) Climate and Systems Technologies, Emerging Technologies Division has shown that there is no need for what might be described as 'a classic El Nino' to develop in order for rainfall to be substantially reduced in Queensland. The near or 'borderline El Nino' pattern as is currently in place, can often suppress winter, spring and potentially summer rainfall in eastern Australia (eg 1992-1994).

STATE OVERVIEW:

We are currently in the traditionally dry period of July, August and September. Rainfall for the May to July period has been extremely low over most of Queensland with many regions recording rainfall in the lowest 10% of possible values for that time of year. Pastures are in their normal winter decline and the dry conditions have resulted in low winter herbage production. Widespread frosts have been recorded and in Central Queensland have led to rescheduling of the sugar cane harvesting operation. Normal winter feeding of stock has commenced and good prices have been maintained. The widespread area of winter crops in parts of southern Queensland and the minimal winter crops planted in Central Queensland are showing signs of moisture stress and are in need of in-crop rainfall. There are currently 46 shires and 8 part shires declared under State drought processes which represents 50% of the land area of the State. There are also 100 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 11 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: The dry winter weather continued this month. Pastures are in their normal winter decline and producers are generally supplementing stock at above normal levels due to the succession of dry years. The dry weather has provided good harvesting conditions for the cane crush. Production of horticulture crops is up but the oversupply of tomatoes has resulted in depressed prices at market.

West Region: Rainfall around the Cunnamulla area early in the month may result in freshening herbages and provide valuable pick but the majority of the region received no significant falls. Producers continue to turn off stock to markets to take advantage of their current condition scores and values as conditions deteriorate. Stock condition is generally Score 3, however, this is directly related to the low stocking rates rather than total pasture quantity and quality. Frosts have impacted heavily on standing pastures and due to the lack of atmospheric and soil moisture, black frosts have been common.

Central Region: There were no significant rainfall recordings across Central Queensland during July with rainfall below or well below average for the month. Pasture and stock condition has not improved and depending on the locality is holding or beginning to decline. Sorghum and sunflower crops have been harvested with variable yields. There is minimal winter crop in the ground in the Dawson/Callide with most crops relying on irrigation to survive with only a very small amount of dryland crops established from isolated rainfall events. Wheat and chickpeas have been planted in some areas but the outlook for harvest at this stage is poor. Severe frosts in the Pioneer Valley during July resulted in large areas of damaged cane and led to the rescheduling of harvesting operations to cut as much of the damaged cane as possible before it was lost.

South-East Region: July has been dry with rainfall limited to 10mm and this, combined with the dry conditions over the past three months, has had an adverse affect on crop, pasture and stock condition. Winter crops planted in summer fallow are reasonable but require rain urgently. The Lockyer Valley has not had significant rain to change the water situation and the winter vegetable production season will be reduced due to low water supplies. Widespread frosts have hayed off pastures.

South Region: July was drier than average, with rainfall ranging from 10mm-25mm in the southern parts and 5mm-10mm to the north, with no good general rain since late April. This dry period has prevented winter crop planting on the eastern Downs. There was widespread planting of winter crop in the Maranoa, Western Downs and Border Rivers area in May but these crops require rain for secondary root development. Generally there is sufficient pasture bulk to carry stock over the winter months, but pasture has hayed off with protein levels dropping. As a consequence of low rainfall, winter herbage production is low.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Generally across the region livestock condition has remained stable and holding for this time of year. Supplementation of protein is occurring in the southern and western parts of the region. Pasture condition remains stable but there is limited growth of pasture on the Tablelands and Wet Coast due to cooler conditions.

West Region: Livestock condition remains strong and generally Score 3. Low stocking rates are having a positive impact on both condition of pasture and stock. Stock movements have continued across the northern tick line as producers lighten off in the north to southern Queensland areas and markets. Generally pastures across the Central West have deteriorated during the mid winter period and this will impact as the driest period of the year begins. As the soft herbages and annual grasses have melted under the dry conditions, the lack of response in the Mitchell grasses is now very obvious as large tracts of blackened areas begin to appear across the Downs country.

Central Region: The condition of both pasture and stock has declined as winter conditions have set in. Frosts have affected pastures in many areas.

South-East Region: Stock are strong as a result of a good body of feed but their condition has dropped as a result of dry and cold conditions. Normal winter feeding has commenced. Good prices have been maintained. While there are adequate feed supplies to last properties until the end of the winter season there has not been the bulk of winter herbage and medics due to the dry conditions.

South Region: Grazing animals have slipped as a consequence of cold dry conditions and limited winter herbage production and there are some isolated areas where supplementary feeding started earlier than normal. Stock are in average body condition and strong prices have been maintained. Forage oats crops had a good start but lack of rain has limited production.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Tablelands the planting of potatoes has generally been completed and the peanut harvest has finished with good yields. The harvest of summer maize is occurring and farmers have planted winter maize crops. The harvest of legume seed crops has commenced and at this stage yields look promising. In the Dry Tropics the cropping season continues with planting and harvesting of all vegetable crops. Planting and harvesting of pumpkins and melons is occurring on the Tablelands. Mangoes, avocadoes and lychees are flowering well. Cool nights in the Wet Tropics have continued to chill ripening bananas resulting in dulled fruit, however, fruit is growing well as the days are warming up.

Central Region: In the Central Highlands the sorghum crop has been harvested with varied yields, but higher than expected in some areas considering the lack of in-crop rain. Sunflowers also had a variation of yields ranging from unharvestable to 0.7 t/ha. Most of the maize in the area is yet to be harvested but harvests so far indicate a lower than average result. There are approximately 30 000-35 000 ha of wheat and 3000-5000 ha of chickpeas planted in Central Queensland with the area around Kilcummin producing the best crops. However, the outlook for harvest is generally poor.

South-East Region: The double cropped wheat areas have had little planting of winter crops in the dryland areas due to lack of rain, although there have been some winter crops planted under irrigation in coastal areas. Sales of ryegrass and oats are down due to restriction in irrigation supplies. The avocado harvest for the main Hass variety continues in the Nambour district but the crop may be down on last year due to drought carry-over effects and very hot weather earlier in the year. There has been an excellent start to the strawberry season with new varieties such as Ruby Gem being well received. Good macadamia harvests were recorded.

South Region: Summer crop yields have been variable depending on sowing date and subsequent rainfall events. Cotton crop pickings achieved average to above average yields. Winter crops were planted extensively in early May in the Maranoa, western Downs, Balonne and Border Rivers areas. The area east of Roma is doing better than in the west. The crops in the Border Rivers area had a good start but are now showing signs of moisture stress. The Darling Downs has had a reasonable amount of crop planted on minimum and no till areas, but in areas where conventional farming is practised, very little winter crops have been sown. The yields that were predicted for the region have been substantially reduced because of the dry conditions over the critical planting and production phases. The Granite Belt has not had any substantial runoff rain since May and as a result, storages have not been recharged. Tree growers generally have sufficient water to take them to the early part of next season but vegetable growers have had production halved because of dry conditions.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 115 (132) Cairns A/P 31mm (26), Malanda 52mm (44), Ingham 52mm (35), Innisfail 152mm (n/a), Townsville 2mm (11), Tully 165mm (n/a), Bowen 1mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.0mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (5) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 2mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (14), Boulia 0.0mm (11), Windorah 0.0mm (17), Cloncurry n/a (7), Mt Isa 0.0mm (9), Longreach 0.4mm (21), Muttaburra n/a (19), Winton 0.0mm (17) and Charleville 5mm (24). Central Region: Alpha recorded n/a (25), Clermont 0.0mm (23), Springsure 0.0mm (30), Mackay 9mm (48), Yaamba 1mm (34), Biloela A/P 2mm (31), Mt Larcom n/a (32), Gladstone 3mm (43), and Theodore n/a (37).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded n/a (38), Gayndah AP 4mm (n/a), Mundubbera 3mm (38), Esk 3mm (51), Kilkivan 3mm (49), Kingaroy 3mm (n/a), Nanango 3mm (49), Proston n/a (41), and Beaudesert n/a (49). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 0.2mm (49), Maryborough 6mm (59), Nambour 3mm (98) and Tewantin 11mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 8mm (43), Dalby 14mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 13mm (n/a), Inglewood 13 (40), Oakey 9mm (38), Pittsworth 8mm (47), Stanthorpe 13mm (49), Toowoomba A/P 11mm (n/a), Warwick 10mm (n/a), Roma 9mm (n/a), Miles 9mm (40), St George A/P 9mm (n/a) and Taroom 6mm (35).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water storage is lessening without winter rain but the cooler temperatures limit evaporation. Bore supply generally seems adequate for this time of year.

West Region: All storages are adequate.

Central Region: Water levels of many streams and waterholes in the region are continuing to fall. Mackay streams and Waterpark Creek remain low.

South East Region: Water storages have dropped slightly from last month.

South Region: There has been no recharge over recent months and accordingly storage levels have dropped.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.