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page regenerated:
07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains in negative values and at the end of the month of June the 30 day average is minus 15.3. Despite the fall in value from plus 13.0 at the end of May to minus 13.9 at the end of June, there remains a 50-70% chance of getting at least the long term July to September median rainfall for the southern quarter of Queensland. Rainfall probabilities across the rest of the State though are lower, with only a 30-50% chance of getting at least the long term July to September median rainfall.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology "El Nino Wrap Up" www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ the Pacific Ocean remains in a neutral sea surface temperature (SST) pattern. However, nothing in the current observations suggests the emergence of an appropriate trigger for an El Niņo event. Based on historical data, there has been only one clearly defined instance of an event developing in the second half of the year. Neutral conditions should persist for the remainder of the year.

The Kelvin Wave of subsurface warming that resulted from a westerly wind burst in late March has contributed to the weakening of negative anomalies in the far eastern Pacific. The subsurface temperature pattern is now showing temperatures generally close to normal across the equatorial Pacific and the potential for an El Niņo event to develop now seems unlikely.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Much of the State experienced relatively dry conditions during June. Stock condition varies across the regions and this is a reflection of pasture quality. There have been widespread planting of winter crops in southern regions although many of these crops are showing signs of moisture stress due to lack of rainfall during the month. Following recommendations from Local Drought Committees (LDCs), the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries has revoked the drought status of the following shires:

* Effective 4 June 2004 - that part of Wambo Shire located north and west of the Dalby/Jandowae/Wondai Road and to the south and west of the Dalby to Toowoomba Road (the Warrego Highway). * Effective 4 June 2004 - Dalby Town Council * Effective 8 June 2004 - Kingaroy and Nanango Shires * Effective 8 June 2004 - that part of Rosalie Shire east of the Great Dividing Range.

There are currently 49 shires and 8 part shires declared under State drought processes which is equivalent to 54.7% of the land area of the State. In addition, there are 118 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 9 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: With a generally below average wet season across most of the northern grazing areas, and winter conditions starting to set in, it is anticipated that producers may start to de-stock to reduce grazing pressure. Stock condition is reflected by pasture quality but overall remains fair. In the extensive grazing areas producers continue to dry season supplement as pastures reach the end of the growing phase and start to loose nutritional value. The cane crush is well under way. Depressed prices for Tomatoes are causing concern in the Bowen district with prices generally below the cost of production. Surface water for livestock will be short in some areas towards the end of winter but seems adequate at present.

West Region: Due to very little rain and pastures continuing to dry off some graziers are starting to buy supplements to feed to cattle as nutrition levels of pastures decline. Frosts are beginning to affect protein pastures in some areas and cattle will need supplementation to maintain condition. In some areas there has been grass species and these will need to be regenerated from seed. It will take good summer rainfall to cement this type of pasture regeneration long term. Buffel Pastures have responded well to summer rainfall but without follow up rain in spring, the situation could quickly reverse.

Central Region: Pasture and stock condition has not improved and depending on the locality is holding or beginning to decline. Due to little significant rainfall since March very little winter crop has been planted in the Dawson/Callide areas. A larger than normal spring crop may be planted, assuming that there is reasonable rain in late August or early September. The sugar cane harvest has begun in the region with most mills starting to crush at the beginning of June.

South-East Region: June has been relatively dry with some areas recording rainfall up to 25mm. The generally dry weather has favoured harvesting of summer crops. Yields are average to better than average condition. The strawberry, custard apples and avocado harvest continues, with many areas of the South-East enjoying the best conditions that have been seen for many years.

South Region: The drier than average conditions have delayed winter crop planting on the Eastern Downs but widespread planting has taken place in the Maranoa, Western Downs and Border Rivers areas. These crops require rain in the near future for secondary root development. Generally there is sufficient pasture bulk to carry livestock over the winter months.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Generally livestock condition has remains good to excellent in many areas and cattle appear to have recovered from the recent run of poor seasons. The exceptions being in the western areas around Charters Towers and south around Bowen where stock are deteriorating slowly, or at best holding. Northern areas in the region have had excellent growth and regeneration of pastures, with western and southern portions starting to hay-off. Some areas around Bowen are becoming denuded of grass.

West Region: Stock condition remains the same as last month and generally is score 3+. Dry cattle fair a little better with score 4+. This is related to the low stocking rates rather than quantity of pasture. Pastures are starting to deteriorate with the absence of rain and supplementation is taking place due to the lack of protein. Buffel Pastures have responded well and an early break in Spring would be most welcomed. There has been a noticeable decrease in the number of kangaroos in the region.

Central Region: Cattle in the central region are predominately in good condition although there are some cattle that are showing the effects of the dry conditions. Cows with calves are struggling a bit, although the younger cattle or empty cows are holding on. Cattle prices have been good lately and producers have been selling anything in reasonable condition. A reasonable body of dry feed exists in most areas although the quantity and quality have suffered due to a combination of frosts and dry conditions. The supplementary feeding of molasses and prolix is increasing rapidly, indicating a lack of protein in the pasture. There is an adequate body of feed in many areas and the use of supplementary feeding will certainly see these paddocks through until the end of winter.

South-East Region: Generally stock remain in good condition through out the South-East region. This has been achieved from an ample supply of good quality feed. Lick sales have increased to utilise available pasture. Restocking is occurring although producers remain cautious about spending large sums of money as there is some concern for the long term rainfall outlook. Most stockowners are content to increase stocking rates slowly. Drought feeding has now stopped in the region. In all areas there is adequate and ample feed supplies to last properties until the end of the winter season. Some property owners may have to supplement stock with protein latter in the winter to utilise the large bulk of grass with protein levels low.

South Region: Stock are in average or better condition, which has been reflected by strong prices being achieved this month at sale. Forage oats have made a good start and properties with lower stocking rates will take advantage of available forage crops and pasture, although rain is required to boost production. While there have been some isolated areas in the North West of Wambo shire where supplementary feeding has started earlier than normal, overall there is adequate feed supplies to limit the need for supplementary feeding.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: There have been a few frosts this month but no reports of any damage beyond what is normally expected. Harvesting of legume seed crops on the Tablelands has commenced and at this stage yields look promising. The cane harvest continues across the north region this month with crops generally cutting to estimates and good CCS recorded to date. Plant cane has had good germination and is growing well. Growers have eased off irrigation due to low demand with the cooler weather maintaining moisture levels. In the Tully district, a forecasted crush of 2.37 million tonnes of cane potentially makes this the second largest crush recorded for north Queensland.

Central Region: Temperatures have started to drop during the month and low lying areas have experienced more than half a dozen frosts in the last half of the month. The colder temperatures have caused little concern, as there are only small areas of winter crop planted where irrigation water is available. As the winter planting window closes during the first week in July there will be very little winter crop for the area this year. Growers will plant a larger than normal spring crop provided that there is reasonable rain in late August or early September.

South-East Region: Yields for most summer crops have been slightly better than average. There has been little planting of winter crops in the dryland areas due to lack of rain, though there has been some winter crops planted under irrigation in coastal areas. New varieties of strawberries especially Ruby Gem (a variety bred at Maroochy Research Station), has been well received. The Lockyer Valley has not had significant rain to change the water situation and consequently the 2004 winter vegetable production season will be significantly reduced due to low water supplies.

South Region: Summer crop yields have been variable depending on sowing date and subsequent rainfall events. Winter crops in the Maranoa, western Downs, Balonne and border rivers areas were planted extensively in early May. The Darling Downs has had a reasonable amount of winter crop planted on minimum and no till areas, however in areas where conventional farming is practiced very little has been sown. The cotton crop achieved average to above average yields. The Granite Belt received good run off rains during the summer/autumn period, although there are areas that don't have full irrigation storages, and dam water should see fruit growers through to the early part of next season.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 139 (208) Cairns A/P 21mm (50), Malanda 62mm (62), Ingham 27mm (43), Innisfail 95mm (n/a), Townsville 0.2mm (20), Tully 121mm (n/a), Bowen 4mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.2mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (6) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 6mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P 0.8 (n/a), Boulia 0.0mm (7), Windorah 0.0mm (12), Cloncurry 0.0mm (n/a), Mt Isa 0.0mm (3), Longreach 0.0mm (13), Muttaburra n/a (13), Winton 0.0mm (11) and Charleville 0.2mm (19).

Central Region: Alpha recorded n/a (23), Clermont 0.0mm (24), Springsure 0.0mm (24), Mackay 15mm (64), Yaamba 6mm (38), Biloela A/P 0.0mm (31), Mt Larcom 3mm (36), Gladstone 0.6mm (35), and Theodore n/a (28).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded n/a (38), Gayndah AP 3mm (n/a), Mundubbera 11mm (31), Esk 5mm (51), Kilkivan 0.6mm (40), Kingaroy 1mm (n/a), Nanango 2mm (34), Proston n/a (31), and Beaudesert 2mm (39). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 5mm (54), Maryborough 12mm (64), Nambour 15mm (95) and Tewantin 25mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 11mm (32), Dalby 9mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 4mm (n/a), Inglewood n/a (28), Oakey 2mm (33), Pittsworth n/a (37), Stanthorpe 8mm (39), Toowoomba A/P 1mm (n/a), Warwick 2mm (n/a), Roma 2mm (n/a), Miles 0.0mm (n/a), St George A/P 1mm (n/a) and Taroom 0.0mm (29).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water storage supplies have been replenished in most areas but some places have only had grass rain with very little run off for surface water supplies. Bore supplies seem adequate in most areas except around Bowen where in some cases levels have fallen quickly.

West Region: Town water storages are at normal capacity. On property water storages vary from normal to low.

Central Region: June rainfall totals were well below average, with many centres recording zero rainfall for the month. Streams in the region are continuing to reside with many approaching or already reached stoppage.

South East Region: In the South East the water storages have remained relatively unchanged with only a slight fall from last month.

South Region: Water storage remains unchanged from May

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.