SITUATION AS AT 31 MARCH 2004:
Based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) pattern over February and
March, there is a reasonable 60-80% chance of getting at least the
long-term median rainfall through to the end of June for a strip running
from central Queensland down along the coastal strip to the NSW/Victorian
border. Across the rest of Australia there remains no strong signal towards
wetter or drier than 'normal' conditions through to the end of June with a
40-60% chance of getting at least the long-term median rainfall.
This is the first time the SOI has been in a 'Consistently Positive' phase
since March 2001. The big question therefore remains as to what the SOI
will do over Autumn as this is the key time of the year when climate
conditions can change quickly. The recent downward trend of the 30day
average of the SOI has been generating much interest. As of 6 April 2004 it
is minus 9 (down from plus 8 at the start of March). It will be very
interesting to see if this fall in value is maintained or just a short term
trend driven by recent cyclone/tropical low activity in the central
Pacific.
If the 30day average of the SOI continues to 'fall' in value through to the
end of this month, rainfall probabilities would also be expected to
substantially drop in value in many areas of Queensland/northern NSW for
the following three months.
Cloud along the equator made the last passage of the Madden Julian
Oscillation (MJO or 40day wave) difficult to predict. When it did pass
over Australia in mid-March, it coincided with development of an active
monsoon and several tropical cyclones, including Fay, Grace and Oscar. The
timing of next MJO passage should occur between the 22nd to the 30th April.
The MJO is simply a band of low air pressure originating off the east
coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and
northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO
to be a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events across
much of Queensland.
STATE OVERVIEW:
There was heavy rain on the Tablelands and north tropical coast, as a
result of Tropical Cyclone Grace, but variable falls in other areas. The
lack of follow-up rain has affected cropping areas in the Central Highlands
although crops and subsoil moisture levels in the south have benefited from
some useful rain during the month. Stock condition is good to excellent
and prices firm. Pasture response has been good in areas which have
received rain but in some areas it is beginning to dry off. Following
recommendations from Local Drought Committees, the Minister for Primary
Industries and Fisheries has revoked the drought status of the following
shires: Effective 12 March 2004 - Kilcoy, Cooloola, Noosa, Biggenden,
Woocoo, Ipswich, Esk, that part of Kilkivan east of Wide Bay Creek,
Divisions two and three of Tiaro. Effective 29 March 2004 - Beaudesert,
Gold Coast, Logan, Redlands, Brisbane, Pittsworth. Effective 31 March 2004
- Tara, Chinchilla, Eidsvold, Monto, Mundubbera. There are currently 76
shires and 4 part shires declared under State drought processes which is
equivalent to 63.2% of the land area of the State. In addition there are
141 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 16 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: Heavy rain from a tropical depression, which later became
Tropical Cyclone Grace, fell on the Tablelands and along the tropical coast
this month. The rest of the North was generally dry with below average
rain. The cane crop is growing well but the outlook for the cropping
season in the dry tropics is mixed. In the extensive inland grazing areas
the season has generally run its course as pastures have set seed and are
beginning to hay off. Generally the season has been below average and
pastures will be short on bulk come the end of winter, especially those
that have come from a low base due to the previous dry season.
West Region: Rainfall across the region has been extremely variable and
falls have been from storm activity rather than general rain influences.
Pastures have hayed off significantly and it it considered that generally
conditions are three months ahead of time, that is the current pasture
conditions are the expectations of the June/July period.
Central Region: Rainfall across Central Queensland was below average to
extremely low. Pasture and stock condition are generally holding, but
further rainfall is needed to boost stock water and pasture reserves going
into winter. Lack of follow up rainfall and hot conditions severely
curtailed the yield potential of summer crops in the Central Highlands and
without significant rainfall the winter cropping outlook is poor. The
cropping position in the Dawson/Callide remains strong. Summer crop and
cotton yields are looking promising with some of the later planted crops
feeling the effects of less rain later in the growing season. The winter
cropping outlook remains positive for the district at the moment. Water
storages in the Mackay area are still in need of replenishment. Cane is
looking good throughout most of the central coastal region but the outlook
is uncertain without further rain to replenish irrigation storages.
South-East Region: Rainfall during the month has been adequate to enable
excellent pasture and crop growth. However, there are still many areas of
the region that require significant inflows to dams and watercourses.
South Region: There was useful rain throughout the region during March,
with best falls being recorded in the southern portion of Balonne Shire and
the south-west of Waggamba Shire. Summer crops have benefited from this
rain and the improved subsoil moisture levels will enhance winter crop
potential. The quality and quantity of pasture continues to improve as a
result of summer rainfall.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Stock condition in the Mareeba Stock District has improved
rapidly due to the mild wet season. Pasture growth has been excellent but
some parts in the west are drying out considerably. Seed has set in all
areas. In the Charters Towers Stock District stock condition has stayed
stable for breeders at store condition or better with non-breeders
improving to forward store. Pasture condition has been affected by hot dry
winds causing some moisture reduction and less growth and grasshoppers have
denuded some areas of pasture. Supplementary feeding is continuing but
more as production than survival. Most of the Georgetown Stock District
has a good body of feed which is beginning to hay off. There have been
large numbers of grasshoppers in the district, particularly in the Croydon
area. In the Townsville Stock District a good stand feed exists but in
most areas it is drying off noticeably. Stock are in good condition and
holding.
West Region: In the North West rainfall has been variable and pastures
have hayed off considerably. Stock condition currently remains strong and
generally is score 3+. Pasture condition is similar in the Central West
and areas operating on herbage growth rather than bulk Mitchell grass or
buffel grass have "melted" under the dry conditions. Stock condition is
strong but this is a result of low stocking rates rather than pasture
quantity. The stock and pasture situation is similar in the South West.
However strong growth here from earlier floods has been chewed by ravaging
locusts during the past weeks.
Central Region: Stock are in good condition in Peak Downs and Emerald
Shires but pasture quantity and quality is patchy. Some areas show good
stands of feed, yet others have missed quality rain and have little
response. Pasture has generally dried off and demonstrates a lack of real
body in a lot of areas. In part Banana and Calliope Shires stock are
prime and are now hardening as the feed hays off a little. Calves and cows
are in peak condition with steers forward store. Stands of feed are the
best seen for many years. In part Banana and part Duaringa Shires the
stock are in good condition. There is a good body of feed but the quality
has started to dry out and brown off.
South-East Region: Stock are in excellent condition in all districts.
There is an ample supply of good quality feed, although some areas have had
more rainfall and as a result there is variable bulk in pastures. The good
pasture condition is attributed in part to the fact that there are
decreased stock numbers on most properties and as a result pastures have
had a chance to rejuvenate. Dairy farmers in the Gympie and surrounding
districts are not having to purchase feed in excess of normal. Many
producers are restocking from Toogoolawah and Esk saleyards resulting in
high prices. In the Boonah Shire there is a fair to good body of feed in
most pastures, although some dairy farms are having problems with the
quality of native and improved pastures. Pasture has responded well to
rainfall in the Monto district and all areas of the shire have a good body
of feed. A small area around Selene/Kapaldo may not be as good as the rest
of the shire but rainfall in March has improved the situation. Overall in
the Central and North Burnett, pasture has responded well and there is
generally very good pasture growth with adequate supplies for winter in the
Lockyer Valley. In the Brisbane Valley, Maryborough and Bundaberg
districts there is excellent quality and quantity of native and improved
pasture.
South Region: Livestock condition ranges from score 2 to score 4 and
prices remain firm. Pastures have responded well from summer rain and this
has alleviated the need for supplementary feeding. Stock water storages
have further improved this month.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Maize and peanut crops are maturing well on the Tablelands
and planting of early potatoes has commenced. Ground preparation is under
way for planting pumpkins and melons. Tree fruit growers have generally
completed harvesting and have commenced pruning. In the wet tropics there
has been some fruit and root rot in papaya trees due to the moist
conditions. Growing conditions have been reasonable to good apart from
some flooding and waterlogging of low-lying areas. Rambutans and
mangosteins are being harvested and are yielding well. Banana production
is continuing with fair yields. Generally across the north region the cane
crop is growing well.
Central Region: There has been little useful rainfall in the
Dawson/Callide this month and late planted sorghum and mungbean crops that
have flowered and started filling grain are feeling the effects of less
in-crop rain. Most of the December planted mungbeans have been harvested,
with yields considered to be quite good. Many of the December planted
sorghum crops are now approaching harvest and cotton picking is also
nearing completion. Winter crop prospects are not as promising at present
due to the large area of spring and summer crop. The Central Highlands are
looking very dry as there has been little rain during March. Many dryland
crops are suffering from moisture stress. Crops around the Southern
Highlands are particularly stressed and some have been baled for hay.
Cotton harvesting is more than half completed in the Emerald Irrigation
Area and early indications on quality and yield are good. The prospects
for winter crop are not looking good with not much fallowed land around and
what is available needing significant rain before a planting opportunity
becomes available. It is expected that wheat and chickpea plantings will
be well down this winter season.
South-East Region: Harvesting of summer crops is now occurring. Crops of
popcorn and millet have been harvested, with average to above average
yields. The season's first peanut crops are now being harvested with
expectations of average or better than average yield. The lychee and mango
harvest is now completed in the Nambour district and the custard apple and
persimmon harvest has started. The Bundaberg district is building up for
the autumn cropping season with tomatoes, capsicum, eggplants and zucchini
being the main crops. The mango and lychee harvest has been completed.
South Region: Summer crop yields in the Border Rivers area have been
variable dependent upon the timing of planting and subsequent rainfall
events. Subsoil moisture levels have been replenished for this year's
winter crop but rains in April/May will be needed to allow a large winter
crop planting to proceed. Forage oats have been planted following this
month's rain. There are some very good sorghum crops on the Darling Downs
and the rain has benefited the sorghum and maize crops. Soil profiles have
been restored which should result in a large winter crop planting and good
yield prospects, providing there are planting rains. The Western
Downs/Maranoa districts anticipate larger winter crop planting due to the
small area planted during summer and restored subsoil profiles. Good
summer rain has fallen in all horticulture districts. However, the
heatwave conditions of late February had a detrimental effect on vegetable
crops such as lettuce, beans and tomatoes reducing quality and in some
instances making them unmarketable.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 1601mm (816) Cairns A/P 1113mm (449),
Malanda 649mm (347), Ingham 352mm (454), Innisfail 1086mm (n/a), Townsville
59mm (176), Tully 975mm (n/a), Bowen 63mm (n/a), Charters Towers 37mm
(n/a), Georgetown 39mm (140) and Normanton A/P 51mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P
63mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P 1mm (n/a), Boulia 0.0mm (35), Windorah 4mm
(32), Cloncurry 41mm (62), Mt Isa 19mm (65), Longreach 2mm (65), Muttaburra
n/a (64), Winton 0.1mm (51) and Charleville 32mm (59).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 1mm (70), Clermont 5mm (75), Springsure 11mm
(69), Mackay 75mm (312), Yaamba 64mm (117), Biloela A/P 28mm (52), Mt
Larcom 53mm (109), Gladstone 43mm (104), and Theodore 32mm (46).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 88mm (71), Gayndah AP 76mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 94mm (56), Esk 137mm (87), Kilkivan 126mm (85), Kingaroy 65mm
(n/a), Nanango 90mm (74), Proston 84mm (68), and Beaudesert 97mm (100). On
the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 193mm (127), Maryborough 185mm (134),
Nambour 298mm (215) and Tewantin 276mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 54mm (73), Dalby 38mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 93mm (n/a),
Inglewood 1mm (59), Oakey 89mm (52), Pittsworth 69mm (69), Stanthorpe 73mm
(76), Toowoomba A/P 117mm (n/a), Warwick 67mm (n/a), Roma 81mm (n/a), Miles
10mm (n/a), St George A/P 54mm (n/a) and Taroom 49mm (64).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Tinaroo Dam has received good inflow during the month.
Surface water storage supplies have been replenished in most areas but some
places have had only grass rain with little run off for surface water
supplies. Bore supply seems adequate as the water table has risen.
West Region: All storages are full.
Central Region: Streamflow in the Fitzroy continued to recede resulting in
the completion of water harvesting early in the month. Mackay streams and
Waterpark Creek remain low.
South East Region: Major water storage facilities in Boonah shire remain
quite low, but rainfall received will ensure household and stock water
supplies until Spring. Surface water has been replenished in Monto shire
and most bores have seen improved levels. In the Central and North Burnett
surface water has been replenished in most areas and bore levels are
improving. Bore levels remain low in the Lockyer Valley. Brisbane Valley
water supplies are the best for some time as irrigation supplies are full
and most farm dams have overflowed. Surface water supplies in the Gympie
district have been replenished to maximum capacity.
South Region: Many replenished water storages have improved the prospects
for stock and crop production.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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