SITUATION AS AT 31 MAY 2004:
OUTLOOK:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is now in a "Rapidly Rising" phase
which creates a mixed seasonal outlook across Queensland. Generally
speaking, for a large part of the south-east corner of Queensland and along
the Queensland/New South Wales border there is a quite reasonable 60-80%
chance of getting the long term June to August median rainfall. Rainfall
probabilities in the north-west though are lower with only a 30-40% chance
of getting at least the long term median rainfall through to the end of
August. For the rest of Queensland there is no strong signal at present
towards wetter or drier than normal conditions through to the end of
August.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology "El Nino Wrap Up"
www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ the Pacific Ocean remains in a neutral sea
surface temperature (SST) pattern. However, there remains an increased
risk of an El Nino developing this winter. It will be interesting to see
if this develops and what impact, if any, this may have on our expected
late winter/spring rainfall.
A strong westerly wind burst in the second half of March initiated a Kelvin
Wave in the Pacific Ocean, which in turn has produced some subsurface ocean
warming in the western Pacific. During autumn and winter Kelvin Waves can
be considered to be somewhat of an early indicator that there is an
increased risk of an El Nino developing. They take about two months to
cross to the eastern Pacific, and can trigger warming of the subsurface
ocean temperatures in the Pacific as they go. However, it is too early to
say just how strong this subsurface ocean warming in the Pacific will be
and how far east significant warming will be found. The majority of ocean
and coupled ocean/atmosphere forecast models highlight a continuing neutral
SST pattern rather than an El Nino. However, caution is recommended when
considering the longer term outlook, especially over March to the end of
June as most models fall away in their forecasting skill.
STATE OVERVIEW:
The State has experienced relatively dry and mild conditions during May.
Stock are generally in good condition and pastures are beginning to hay off
as the winter season approaches. There has been widespread planting of
winter crops in southern regions as a result of earlier rain and very good
subsoil moisture levels. Following recommendations from Local Drought
Committees (LDCs), the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries has
revoked the drought status of the following shires:
* Effective 6 May 2004 - northern Taroom described as that
part of the shire being from the eastern side heading west, the northern
side of the Red Range Road, eastern side of the Nathan Road, north of the
Bungaban Seven Mile Road, down the Leichhardt Highway, north of Murrays
Road continuing west along the stock route to the Yeovil Road, taking in
all properties north of the Yeovil Road and the Taroom Roma Road.
* Effective 7 May 2004 - Toowoomba
* Effective 12 May 2004 - that part of Waggamba Shire west of
the Leichhardt Highway (Goondiwindi to Moonie)
* Effective 13 May 2004 - Townsville and Thuringowa
* Effective 14 May 2004 - Hinchinbrook and Stanthorpe
* Effective 20 May 2004 - that part of Bauhinia Shire that
extends south from the township of Rolleston, west of the Comet/Brown River
and Clematis Creek, east of the Carnarvon Development Road, Rewan Road and
O'Briens Road
* 24 May 2004 - Boulia Shire east of the Diamantina
Developmental Road and south of the Donohue Highway
* Effective 26 May 2004 - Millmerran
There are currently 54 shires and 6 part shires declared under State
drought processes which is equivalent to 55.4% of the land area of the
State. In addition, there are 118 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs)
in a further 9 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: The region remained relatively dry this month with the
exception of the tropical north coast. Generally stock are in good
condition for this time of year. Pasture in the northern areas has had
excellent growth and regeneration with west and southern areas starting to
hay-off as winter approaches. Harvesting of the cane crop commenced with
good yields expected across the region and harvest of the vegetable crop in
the dry tropics has also started.
West Region: Generally conditions have been extremely mild with only very
light frosts occurring in isolated areas. Rainfall across the region has
once again been extremely variable with the majority of falls occurring in
the south west. Total falls ranged from 0-50mm and will benefit the
lighter country and those areas fortunate to receive the rains during
April. Expected responses will be to provide a boost for previous growth,
particularly in the buffel grass, and valuable herbage growth. However,
the heavy black soil country will show very little response. Producers are
turning off stock to markets to take advantage of their current condition
scores and values as conditions deteriorate.
Central Region: There were no significant rainfall recordings across
Central Queensland during May. The northern part of the region remains in
a long term rainfall deficiency compared to historical records. Pasture
and stock condition has not improved and depending on the locality is
holding or beginning to decline. Summer crop harvest has finished in the
Dawson/Callide and a significant rainfall event will be required to see
widespread winter planting across the district. There have been some good
yields from the sorghum harvest in the northern Central Highlands, but in
most other areas of the Highlands many crops have failed or only achieved
average yields. Cane is severely moisture stressed in many areas.
South-East Region: May has been relatively dry with rainfall up to 25mm
in some areas which has favoured the harvesting of summer crops. Crop
yields are average to better than average. There has been little planting
of winter crops in the dryland areas due to lack of rain although there
have been some winter crops planted under irrigation in coastal areas.
South Region: The region experienced relatively dry conditions with falls
generally less than 20mm. Mild conditions have prevailed during most of
the month and as a consequence the pasture is still generally in good
condition. There is excellent subsoil moisture over the cropping area
which will enhance yield potential. There has been widespread planting of
winter crop in the Maranoa and Western Downs.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Pasture and feed quality in the eastern portion of the
Mareeba Stock District is excellent. Much of the district is too green to
burn yet and mustering burns have only just started. On the whole cattle
look to have recovered from the poor run of seasons. Stock condition is
fairly good in the Normanton Stock District with good ground cover across
most areas. In the Bowen Stock District condition of stock ranges from
score 3 to score 5 depending on location, rainfall and management factors.
Some areas with pasture cover prior to the rains responded well with
continued pasture growth, although the dry weather has sucked most of the
moisture out. Stock condition in the Georgetown Stock District is
normal/fair with exception of the drier areas around the south east portion
of the shire where the pasture quality and quantity is very poor. The
remainder of the shire has reasonable pasture quality and quantity for this
time of the year with some areas having a very good season. In the
Charters Towers Stock District, stock condition has slipped slightly for
breeders to store condition with non-breeders stable at forward store.
Pasture condition has improved in areas fortunate enough to get rain and
daily temperatures have lessened allowing for better growth of seeded
grasses. A good bulk of feed exists in most areas in the Townsville Stock
District with stock in good condition in all areas.
West Region: Stock condition remains strong and generally is score 3+.
However, this is related to the low stocking rates rather than quantity of
pasture. Pastures have matured an estimated three to four months earlier
than normally expected. In the North West, due to lack of Mitchell grass,
the current pasture composition is of the softer grasses, such as Flinders
grass, and weeds. As these species dry and melt away, impacts will begin
to be felt significantly as the year progresses. In the Central West,
Boulia Shire has responded very well to early seasonal rains and many
producers are restocking. Generally pastures have hayed off and the lack
of response in the Mitchell grass is now very obvious as large blackened
areas begin to appear across the Downs country. Valuable follow-up rains
were received during the middle of the month in the Charleville, Cunnamulla
and Quilpie stock districts which will provide a boost to those areas that
received earlier falls.
Central Region: In Jericho Shire condition of stock is good with prime
cattle still being turned off and stores in forward condition. Breeders
are in good condition and weaning has commenced. There is reasonable bulk
in pasture in the eastern area with quality being marginal but in the
western area of the shire around Jericho the condition of pasture in terms
of quality and quantity is good. Stock remain in prime or at least fair
condition in Banana/Calliope Shires. While good stands of feed still
remain, some producers are supplementary feeding early, however the feed
that remains will see the stock through winter with careful management. In
Banana and part Duaringa Shire stock are starting to go backwards a bit but
on the whole are in reasonable condition. Pasture condition has
deteriorated considerably this month mainly due to lack of rain. In
Belyando and northern Peak Downs the condition of stock is overall medium
store. Pasture is variable with the eastern part of Belyando and northern
end of Peak Downs faring the worst. The condition and stocks of
available pasture in the western end of Belyando are also variable due to
patchy rainfall, management practices and stocking rates. Condition of
stock in Mackay, Mirani, Sarina, Broadsound and Nebo is generally
considered good and properties are reducing numbers in preparation for the
upcoming winter months. While in some places there is still a reasonable
body of grass, other properties are looking bare. The difference in
pasture condition can be attributed to the patchy rain and management
practices. In Livingstone, Fitzroy, Rockhampton, Mt Morgan and Duaringa
stock condition is generally good, with some supplementary feeding
occurring. Most areas have a fair amount of dry feed available.
South-East Region: Stock condition has improved with the ample supply of
good quality feed and mild weather and stock in all districts are in good
condition. Drought feeding has now stopped. In all areas there are
adequate and ample feed supplies to last properties until the end of the
winter season.
South Region: The condition of stock ranges from average to good. Prices
have levelled. The good general rain and the resultant pasture response
have alleviated the need for supplementary feeding. The native pasture
season has drawn to a close, however improved pastures such as buffel will
continue to grow until affected by frost.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Harvesting of late planted peanuts is occurring on the
Tablelands with good yields. The maize crop is also being harvested where
possible but some delays are being experienced due to the wet conditions.
Potato planting continues. In the Dry Tropics the cropping season is well
under way with planting and harvesting of all vegetable crops occurring.
Pumpkins and melons are being planted on the Tablelands. Harvesting of
sugar cane has commenced on the Tablelands and the remaining areas will
commence in early June. Overall the crops are fair and another large cane
crush is anticipated.
Central Region: The dry weather has seen the sorghum harvest finish
without rain interruptions in the Dawson/Callide. Some growers with
fallow paddocks have applied fertiliser in preparation for a winter crop
planting and are now waiting for rain. Without significant rainfall in the
next two to three weeks, it is unlikely that a large winter crop area will
be planted. There are still some late sorghum crops to be harvested in the
northern Central Highlands and crops are looking very good and should yield
well. Crops around Capella have ranged from average yields to failed
crops. There are still some crops to be harvested in the southern
Highlands and the good crops may get an average yield, but again there have
been many failed crops.
South-East Region: Harvest of peanut crops in the South Burnett and Wide
Bay regions is almost complete but prices have been low. Yields have
generally been better than average though later crops in the South Burnett
suffered from the dry spell in March/April. Most other summer crops are
being harvested with the exception of maize which is often harvested late.
In the Nambour district the avocado harvest for the main Hass variety has
begun. The crop will probably be down on last year due to drought
carry-over effects and adverse very hot weather in February which caused
sunburn and tree stress problems. Strawberry harvesting has just begun and
prices from the macadamia harvest are good due to a shortfall in supplies
to processors last season.
South Region: Summer crop yields have been variable dependent upon the
timing of planting and subsequent rainfall events. Subsoil moisture levels
have been replenished for this year's winter crop and as the Maranoa and
western Downs received excellent planting rain there has been widespread
sowing. The Granite Belt received good runoff rains.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 204 (427) Cairns A/P 39mm (107), Malanda
54mm (118), Ingham 73mm (126), Innisfail 222mm (n/a), Townsville 1mm (40),
Tully 154mm (n/a), Bowen 6mm (n/a), Charters Towers 2mm (n/a), Georgetown
1mm (10) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) Proserpine A/P 31mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (14), Boulia 17mm (14), Windorah 22mm
(23), Cloncurry 8mm (13), Mt Isa 5mm (17), Longreach 0.4mm (29), Muttaburra
3mm (22), Winton 15mm (23) and Charleville 9mm (41).
Central Region: Alpha recorded n/a (40), Clermont 0.0mm (47), Springsure
0.0mm (47), Mackay 25mm (115), Yaamba 1mm (63), Biloela A/P 1mm (43), Mt
Larcom 18mm (63), Gladstone 3mm (70), and Theodore n/a (47).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 11mm (44), Gayndah AP 21mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 22mm (40), Esk 16mm (59), Kilkivan 7mm (49), Kingaroy 17mm
(n/a), Nanango 16mm (48), Proston n/a (45), and Beaudesert 6mm (76). On
the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 15mm (69), Maryborough 31mm (78),
Nambour 16mm (139) and Tewantin 49mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 4mm (48), Dalby 9mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 19mm (n/a),
Inglewood 24mm (43), Oakey 7mm (45), Pittsworth 6mm (44), Stanthorpe 27mm
(59), Toowoomba A/P 8mm (n/a), Warwick 5mm (n/a), Roma 45mm (n/a), Miles
0.0mm (n/a), St George A/P 5mm (n/a) and Taroom 1mm (42).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Surface water storage supplies have been replenished in
most areas but some places have had only grass rain with little run off for
surface water supplies. Bore supply seems adequate as the water table has
risen.
West Region: All storages are full.
Central Region: Recorded rainfall during May was well below average for
all centres. Some streams in the region are still flowing, however water
levels are continuing to fall. Many streams have reached stoppage. Mackay
streams and Waterpark Creek remain low.
South East Region: There have been some bore recharges in the upper Tent
Hill area and along Lockyer Creek.
South Region: Many water storages have improved the prospects for stock
and crop production.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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