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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The 30 day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as at the end of November is minus 7.7. This means the SOI has remained in a "Consistently Near Zero" phase for the fourth month in a row. Based on the current SOI phase and available rainfall records there is only a 40% to 60% chance of getting above median rainfall for December through to the end of February across most of Queensland. For there to be an overall improvement in the seasonal outlook for Queensland, the SOI would need to rise to a "Consistently Positive" phase for a couple of months.

Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific are not in a classic El Niņo pattern but SST in the central Pacific have remained warmer than normal (+0.5 to 1.5oC). As long as SST in this region are warmer than normal, there is an increased risk that our rainfall and water supply across eastern Australia will be below average.

STATE OVERVIEW:

There has generally been a lot of storm activity over the last month throughout most of Queensland although in the majority of all areas, the rain has been patchy and only those properties directly under the storms have benefited. The rain however has prompted a lot of new pasture growth and if follow up rain is received it could provide valuable feed in the coming months. The major concern now is that temperatures do not increase too dramatically and burn off any new growth. Stock appear to be holding well in most districts. Most cropping districts have responded well to recent rains with summer crop planting now under way.

There are currently 46 shires and 8 part shires declared under State drought processes which represents 50% of the land area of the State. There are also an additional 153 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 25 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: Thunderstorm activity increased this month across the region but widespread general rainfall has not occurred. In the extensive grazing areas producers continue to supplement stock and monitor water supplies. As the weather starts to warm up, pressure on water supplies will increase but generally they are adequate at present. On the Tablelands farmers are waiting for planting rains. The cane crush finished this month with yields generally average to slightly above.

West Region: The west region received some well needed rain at the start of the month although it was patchy. The rain occurred mainly in the area south from Winton, but some northern centres were fortunate enough to be under the falls. Totals ranged from less than 25 mm to isolated totals of 75mm. Temperatures have remained very mild since the rain, which has been very beneficial for the pasture responses in the areas that received greater than 25mm. Stock movements have steadied in response to the rains. Dry stock are generally holding at about condition score 3, however, this is directly related to the low stocking rates rather than total pasture quantity and quality. Wet breeders are slipping as the season continues to deteriorate and calves take their share. Supplementary feeding has recommenced in an attempt to prevent the condition of wet breeders and weaners from slipping too much further.

Central Region: The region received some very useful rain early in the month. Isolated recordings of 300 mm were reported, although most areas seem to have recorded between 15-25mm or 50-100 mm. There were some areas though that had missed out completely. Hail and strong winds from these storms caused some cases of crop damage in Central Queensland. In the Central Highlands cropping areas are so dry from almost no winter rainfall, that recent rain has only just started to build a soil moisture profile, thus there have been no cropping decisions made yet. Growers hope that the traditional cropping planting window of December to January will open, however falls of 50 -150 mm are required before this can happen. Generally cattle are in fair to reasonable condition for this time of the year although the lower stocking rates, along with supplementary feeding, have contributed to livestock remaining in good condition. Variation in pasture quantity and quality is evident across the region and within the districts. Where the best falls of rain have been, improved pastures have responded well but are now drying out as the temperatures increase. Native pastures have not responded as well.

South-East Region: Much welcomed follow up rain was received in most southeast areas, although it was very patchy. Falls varied from 50mm to 350mm with runoff being very limited. Wind and hail from storms caused damage to two citrus orchards in the Gayndah area as well as small crops in the Boonah district. Hot dry conditions late in November have started to slow pasture growth and reduce soil moisture. There are still a few properties in the South and North Burnett regions that are experiencing water problems as a result of insufficient runoff. Irrigation restrictions are still in place for most of the major streams and dams in the south east.

South Region: The bulk of the region received above average rainfall for November. The best falls were recorded on the eastern Downs and Border Rivers areas with falls ranging from 100 to 150mm. Elsewhere, there were falls between 50 to 100mm although the rainfall in many places has been patchy. The Downs and Border Rivers areas have responded well to the good spring rain. There has been substantial summer crop plantings and a positive response to pasture growth in these areas. The rest of the region has not had the same positive reaction. The rain within the Granite Belt has improved water storages and crop production.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Generally across the region livestock condition has continued to slip in line with the seasonal decline of pasture quality and quantity for this time of the year. Supplementation of protein and urea is occurring in many parts of the region. Graziers continue to take advantage of meatworks prices and are generally trying to lighten off and lessen the grazing pressure. Scattered storms have slightly improved pasture condition in some areas but without follow up rain new growth will be affected by the hot dry conditions. Hot dry winds have persisted daily causing some extensive drying out of pasture grass with any moisture content. Tablelands and Wet Coast pasture condition remain stable with limited growth due to cooler conditions.

West Region: In the northwest area around Mt Isa, Cloncurry, Julia Creek, Richmond and Hughenden districts conditions have not generally changed across the area and continue to decline. Although expected, the Mitchell Downs country has not responded to any of the light falls. The amount of bulk pastures currently available may provide sufficient for later periods. The greatest positive is that there has not been any "spoiling" rain this year. Some properties have commenced supplementary feeding programs to assist stock experiencing declining pasture quality. Stock condition currently remains strong and generally is score 3, however low stocking rates are contributing to both condition of pasture and stock. Across the central west area rainfall has been very patchy. This has produced some pasture response although if significant follow-up rains do not fall the heat will burn it all off. The country north from Barcaldine to Aramac has not had any significant rains to produce pasture response and remains black. Stock movements have slowed as selling centers wind down for the year and some producers wait to see if summer rains are received. Isolated falls of up to 75mm combined with hail were received at one station in the Aramac area. Rainfall recordings across the south west area around Charleville, Cunnamulla and Quilpie stock districts have generally been very patchy and those areas that have missed this rainband are seeing pasture responses burning off. Further follow-up rains are needed to sustain the growth. Some supplementary feeding has also recommenced across the area. Stock condition remains strong, score 3, however again this is related to the low stocking rates rather than quantity of pasture alone.

Central Region: Generally cattle are in fair to reasonable condition for this time of the year. Some have suffered as a result of chasing the green pick after the rain, but should now go ahead in the short term. The lower stocking rates, along with supplementary feeding, have contributed to cattle sustaining condition so far. As expected there is a big variation in pasture quantity and quality across the region. Where the best falls of rain have been, improved pastures have come away well, although even these pastures have dried out towards the end of the month. Native pastures have not fared so well. Generally, stock water supplies are adequate to sufficient, although some dams are reported to be dry and levels receding in others.

South-East Region: Generally stock have responded well to recent rains and are in fair to good condition. There are a small number of poorer cattle where pastures were overstocked and are consequently taking longer to recover. Generally, supplementary feeding has ceased. Native pastures have responded well including the burnt areas from last month's bush fires.

South Region: Stock condition has improved within the Border Rivers and eastern Darling Downs. This has generally resulted from new pasture growth over the spring period. Stock condition in the rest of the region has been maintained. Livestock are in average (2 to 3) body condition. Generally there has been a positive response to pasture growth, within the Border Rivers area, the western areas have not generated the same amount of feed mainly due to significantly lower and patchy rainfall. Supplementary feeding has increased in the drier portion of the region. In areas outside the Border Rivers and eastern parts of the region water storages are depleting as there has been no appreciable runoff over the last 8 months.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: Due to insufficient rain on the Tablelands some growers have commenced irrigation and some are waiting to see if summer storms arrive before commencing ground preparation for the planting of summer crops. Mangoes and lychees are being harvested. The cane harvest has finished across the north region and the dry weather has provided excellent harvesting conditions with minimal delays. Good rainfall post harvest has fallen in most areas and next years crop is growing well. Producers are now generally busy with weed control and farm maintenance. In the Tully district the crush finished with 2.43 M/tonne harvested with a district average CCS of 13.21. The harvest finished mid November with 4.6 M/tonne crushed and a district CCS of 13.45.

Central Region: For many growers, November brought some welcome storm rain during the first half of the month. Whilst some places around Biloela suffered crop damage from hail and strong winds, most properties received the first good rain in a long time. The rain has sparked planting activities in many parts of the district, with growers keen to get some groundcover onto paddocks that missed out on a winter crop. Sorghum has been the main crop sown in these situations. Some growers have also planted small areas of mung beans, hoping to take advantage of the forecast of reasonable prices for the coming season. There are still large areas yet to be planted although further rain is still required before more widespread planting occurs. In the Central Highlands generally no cropping decisions have been made yet for the coming summer season. There has been some increased spraying activity as a number of growers have received enough rain to germinate weeds. If more rain is received then some forage crops may be planted. For grain crops it is generally estimated that a further 150 mm of consistent rainfall is required before planting decisions can be made. With a very limited area of winter crop grown this year there is a very large fallow area available for a summer crop.

South-East Region: Approximately seventy percent of intended summer crop plantings are now either establish or emerging. Basically this made up of peanuts, maize and forage crops with some sorghum. Follow up moisture is needed as hot dry conditions occurring late in November have stressed young seedlings. Avocado fruit set has been mixed and the variation may be due to cool weather in some areas during flowering which limits pollination. Pineapple spring crop volumes were down for this time of year. Although with the recent good rainfall and warmer weather, the situation has improved and harvest volumes have returned to normal. Adequate rainfall fell through November and providing this continues during summer, the prospects look good for next year's macadamia crop. In the Fassifern and Lockyer Valleys winter season crops have completed harvesting and summer season crops are being planted where irrigation water is available.

South Region: With patchy rain received around the Border Rivers area in the last month some summer crop plantings have taken place. The Darling Downs region also received patchy rain although this resulted in greater planting of summer crops. On the Central Downs the remaining sorghum area has been planted and there is renewed interest in mungbeans. In the Southern Downs the winter crop harvest is 75% complete and growers have been busy planting their summer crop and at least 50% of the summer crop area has been planted here. No significant runoff has occurred so there has been no major erosion concerns from the rain received. The follow-up rain has been beneficial for orchardists and vegetable plantings, with increased soil moisture reducing the need for irrigation early in the month. However, high maximum temperatures during the end of the month have led to an increased pressure to irrigate crops. Fruit crop loads are variable, with plums and apricots generally exhibiting very light crop loads. Early variety peaches and nectarines were affected by late season frosts, although later variety peach and nectarines are presenting a good crop. Apples are also displaying a quality crop with the fruit sizing well, although some Delicious crops are variable. Conditions have been particularly favourable for early season growth of grapes.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 219mm (222) Cairns A/P 99mm (100), Malanda n/a (106), Ingham 180mm (112), Innisfail 245mm (n/a), Townsville 24mm (55), Tully 259mm (n/a), Bowen 12mm (n/a), Charters Towers 23mm (n/a), Georgetown 13mm (63) and Normanton A/P 44mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 81mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P 5mm (n/a), Boulia 8mm (19), Windorah 12mm (16), Cloncurry 14mm (29), Mt Isa 24mm (24), Longreach 64mm (23), Muttaburra 21mm (31), Winton 59mm (28) and Charleville 44mm (42).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 73mm (46), Clermont 36mm (64), Springsure 41mm (66), Mackay 108mm (88), Yaamba 61mm (67), Biloela A/P 126mm (86), Mt Larcom 65mm (89), Gladstone 22mm (81), and Theodore 4mm (86), Yeppoon 40mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 149mm (78), Gayndah AP 34mm (n/a), Mundubbera 108mm (80), Esk 93mm (87), Kilkivan 77mm (81), Kingaroy 86mm (n/a), Nanango 116mm (85), Proston 110mm (76), and Beaudesert 163mm (93). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 34mm (101), Maryborough 60mm (105), Nambour 176mm (158) and Tewantin 123mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 149mm (85), Dalby 101mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 112mm (n/a), Inglewood 130mm (69), Oakey 95mm (81), Pittsworth 113mm (83), Stanthorpe 107mm (83), Toowoomba A/P 99mm (n/a), Warwick 90mm (n/a), Roma 30mm (n/a), Miles 36mm (n/a), St George A/P 81mm (n/a) and Taroom 127mm (75).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water storage is decreasing with increased evaporation rates in some areas. Bore supply generally seems adequate for this time of year. There has been some cartage of water onto the larger properties around the Charters Towers region. West Region: All storages are adequate even though surface storages have receded considerably. Evaporation rates will be the biggest cause in receding levels during the coming months.

Central Region: Areas of the Upper Dawson catchment experienced storm rainfall events causing minor flooding in the Dawson River, which in turn allowed for some opportunities for water harvesting in both the Dawson and Fitzroy Rivers. Many streams in the Mackay region remain low with very few actually flowing. The small amount of rain late in the month started some very minor flows to the coastal streams only.

South East Region: Runoff from recent rains has increased storages in the south east region although much more is needed to fill dams. Water restrictions for irrigation are still in place. Good runoff in the coastal areas has topped up farm dams but some inland properties in the North and South Burnett are still experiencing water problems.

South Region: Scattered storm activity during the middle of the month did not have any impact on stream flow throughout the region. Substantial rains are required to start streams flowing again and significant follow up events are needed to maintain a baseflow in the tributaries and major trunk streams.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.