OUTLOOK:
The 30 day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as at the end of
October is minus 3.0. This means the SOI has remained in a "Consistently
Near Zero" phase for the third month in a row. Based on the current SOI
phase and available rainfall records there is a 50% to 70% (in a few
locations) chance of getting above median rainfall through to the end of
January for most of the eastern quarter of Queensland. Across the rest of
the state, the chance of getting above median rainfall through to the end
of January is lower between 30 to 50%.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific are not in a classic El Niņo
pattern but SST in the central Pacific have remained warmer than normal
(+0.5 to 1.5oC). As long as SST in this region are warmer than normal,
there is an increased risk that our rainfall and water supply across
eastern Australia will be below average.
For the coming spring/summer period there may be a higher than normal risk
of increased severe thunderstorm activity, which could suggest that much of
the rainfall that will occur, will be associated with severe thunderstorm
occurrence. There is also an increased probability of high maximum
temperatures this summer, especially for south-eastern Queensland.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Supplementary feeding is occurring across the majority of state as
temperatures start to rise and limited rainfall has been received.
Generally stock seem to be holding well, although this is due more to
producers electing to destock their properties rather than the quality and
quantity of available pastures. Cropping activity across the northern areas
appear normal for this time of the year. Across the south, wheat harvesting
has commenced and although there were some good individual yields, the
region as a whole was below average due to a reduction in the areas being
planted and a dry growing season.
There are currently 46 shires and 8 part shires declared under State
drought processes which represents 50% of the land area of the State. There
are also an additional 144 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a
further 24 shires.
SITUATION AS AT 29 OCTOBER 2004
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: Some early storms occurred across the region this month but
did little to alleviate the ongoing dry conditions. In the extensive
grazing areas of the north most producers are busy feeding supplements and
ensuring stock have adequate water. The hot days are increasing pressure on
stock water and producers are busy ensuring supplies are adequate. The cane
crush has progressed well with most mills on track to finish mid November.
CCS is generally average to slightly above for the season to date.
West Region: No significant rainfall was received across the west region
during October. Temperatures have increased dramatically during the month
with 40*C being a common maximum. Producers continue to lighten off
stocking numbers as market values remain buoyant. Dry stock are generally
holding at about condition score 3, however, this is directly related to
the low stocking rates rather than total pasture quantity and quality. Wet
breeders are slipping as seasonal conditions continue to deteriorate.
Producers have started supplementary feeding in an attempt to prevent the
condition of wet breeders and weaners from slipping.
Central Region: Producers in the central region have seen a more promising
end to the month than they began with. Recent rains have assisted
struggling pastures although as it was storm rain it did not bring
widespread relief. More rain is needed to produce a reasonable body of
feed. The best falls were in the order of 200mm, but only occurred over a
small area. Stock are mostly in fair to reasonable condition and holding
for this time of the year although cows with calves are generally fairing a
little worse. There is some dry pasture available although that is being
used in conjunction with supplementation.
South-East Region: Patchy but penetrating rain fell through most of the
south east region during October with coastal falls varying from 75 to
100mm and inland falls from 20 to 80mm. Pasture response has been slow and
there was no significant runoff associated with these falls. Hot dry
conditions followed the rain coupled with large areas of native pastures
being burnt off. Overall cattle appear to be holding while many of those in
good condition are being taken to sale.
South Region: The Eastern Downs and Border Rivers areas recorded falls
ranging between 50 to 100mm while the rest of the region recorded 25 to
50mm. These falls helped reduced the extreme high fire danger that was
present in the region. Generally cattle are ranging from fair to average
although body condition has dropped as a consequence of limited pasture
supplies. The wheat harvest has commenced and although there were some good
individual yields, the region as a whole was below average due to a
reduction in the areas being planted and a dry growing season. There has
been some response to summer pasture growth as well as improving subsoil
moisture levels. There are tight water restrictions for groundwater
supplies while the above ground storages have been vastly depleted over
recent times.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Generally across the region livestock condition has
continued to slip in line with seasonal decline of pasture quality and
quantity for this time of the year. Supplementation of protein and urea is
occurring in many parts of the region. Graziers are taking advantage of
current meatwork prices and selling any stock still in reasonable condition
while generally trying to lighten off and ease the grazing pressure of
available pastures. Pasture condition in most areas has slowly started to
decline in quality and quantity in line with the current climate and
limited rainfall throughout the region. Most grasses with any moisture
content have been affected by the hot dry winds that continue to persist
causing extensive drying out. Tablelands and wet coast pasture conditions
remain stable but limited growth is occurring due to the cooler conditions.
West Region: Conditions across the northwestern areas of the region that
encompass the Mt Isa, Cloncurry, Julia Creek, Richmond and Hughenden
districts continue to decline. The amount of bulk pastures currently
available may provide sufficient for later periods and the low stocking
rates should see many graziers through the year. Some properties have
commenced supplementary feeding programs to assist stock as pasture quality
starts to decline, however stock condition currently remains strong and
generally is score 3. In the central west area around Boulia, Winton,
Longreach and Blackall conditions have not changed since last month.
Pastures across these districts continue to deteriorate as the area enters
the driest period of the year. Soft herbages and annual grasses have
disappeared and large areas of dead Mitchell grass are prominent. Reponses
from rains during last month in the area south of Tambo/Augathella are
beginning to burn off and require further rain to sustain the growth.
Producers continue to lighten numbers, taking advantage of the buoyant
markets values for both sheep and cattle. Supplementary feeding has started
where pasture quality is low however stock condition does remain strong at
score 3. The north east Aramac area is reported to be critical as no
effective rains have been received since the beginning of the year. In the
south west, pasture response from last months rain has begun to burn off as
high temperatures continue. Further follow-up rain is needed if growth is
to be sustained. The Cunnamulla area has received less rainfall than
Charleville, but responses in herbages should provide sheep with valuable
pick to continue through to the next lot of showers.
Central Region: Cattle appear to be in fair condition across the central
district with the exception being those cows with calves. This has resulted
from producers lightening off stock numbers while good prices were still
being achieved at sale. In the Duaringa, Fitzroy and Livingstone shires
most areas have a reasonable amount of dry feed although supplementary
feeding is still necessary. Rainfall in these areas has produced pasture
response, which was further aided by follow up rain near the end of the
month. In the Calliope district, rainfall has been beneficial with improved
pastures responding almost immediately and green shoot over most of the
district. Belyando and Jericho shires still have a reasonable amount of
bulk pasture across the greater part of the shires. If water supplies hold
well in these areas, it should place many producers in a good position in
terms of water availability.
South-East Region: Overall stock condition is holding well and those cattle
that remain in good condition are being presented at sale. Breeders with
calves that have not undertaken supplementation feeding are starting to
slip, however given the recent rain in the south-east region supplementary
feeding is slowing down. As conditions turn hot and dry in the south-east,
large areas of native pastures have been slow to respond and moisture
levels diminished
South Region: Stock around the Border Rivers area have benefited from rain
that was received in September and October. The rest of the region though
has limited pasture supplies, which has caused body condition of livestock
to drop. Animals generally are in average body condition and producers
continue to lighten off. Due to the increased number of livestock passing
through the saleyards, recent prices that were being achieved have now
dropped. Supplementary feeding has increased in the Rosalie shire to assist
where pasture quality and quantity is low. Water storages are starting to
deplete as there has been no appreciable runoff over the last 7 months.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Ground preparation for summer crop production continues on
the Tablelands. Harvesting is currently underway for barley and wheat crops
while lupins currently under harvest are producing good yields to date.
The potato harvest continues but depressed prices due to oversupply in the
market have resulted in some crops being ploughed in. Growers are now
waiting for summer storms prior to commencing any ground preparation and
planting of summer crops. On the Tablelands tree crops are being irrigated
weekly to ensure adequate moisture during the critical production stages.
Early varieties of lychees are nearing harvest along with watermelon while
pumpkin crops are generally finished for the year. In the Tully Valley some
localized but severe storms have caused tree loss in some banana
plantations. The cane harvest entered its finals stages this month with the
dry weather providing perfect harvesting conditions with minimal delays. On
the Tableland CCS is looking good and it is anticipated to finish slightly
above average for the district. In the Tully district the CCS is averaging
13.2, which is above the district average. Storms received during October
did not delay the harvest and were very beneficial to plant cane which is
growing well. Growers around the Herbert district have had a good season
with 4.3 million tonnes of cane crushed with an average district CCS of
13.48.
Central Region: Storm rains fell in most parts of the Dawson/Callide during
the month of October. While some areas benefited more than others, the
majority of all districts received between 40 to 60mm providing worthwhile
soil moisture that will be used for spring or summer cropping. Further
areas were also planted on this rain with sorghum and mungbeans being the
main crops sown. Small areas of millet have also been sown in the Callide
valley. Winter crop harvesting has just about finished with wheat yields in
the range of 4 - 5t/ha. The small area of dryland crop has been harvested,
with below average yields (around 0.5 - 1.0t.ha). Although the sugar crop
in the Mackay Whitsunday region has benefited from the recent rain, it
arrived too late for this seasons harvest but should prove beneficial for
the new crop.
South-East Region: Recent rainfall in the south-east has improved the
outlook for cropping but no planting has occurred due to insufficient
planting rain and late land preparation. This steady rain penetrated into
the dry ground and moistened the soil profile to a good depth but there has
been no follow-up rain to provide run-off into dams. Water supplies in
local storages and the larger dams remain limited to regional irrigation.
Prospects for the dryland areas around North and South Burnett will depend
on further rain. Avocado flowering is complete but it is too early to
predict how good the fruit set has been. Orders for strawberry runners for
the 2005 season have now closed with the number of orders at up from last
year. The low chill stonefruit season has generally been good with the dry
sunny weather improving the quality and helping to bring-on early fruit.
However the wet weather in mid October has caused fruit split in some
instances. Macadamia harvesting and flowering has been aided by the dry
winter weather although there was concern that very same conditions could
lead to immature fruit drop after fruit set. However recent rain has
assisted in alleviating this concern and fruit set looks promising for the
2005 season. The worst drought affected horticulture district is the
Lockyer Valley with the Fassifern Valley not far behind.
South Region: Winter crop harvest is progressing in the Border Rivers
district with yields averaging around 2.5 t/ha. While there was some
isolated hail during October only minor damage was reported with the
majority of growers returning good winter crop yields. Dry conditions
continue on the eastern, central and northern Darling Downs. Cotton areas
being pre-irrigated but more rain needed as on-farm supplies inadequate for
the season. At Roma the wheat harvest is largely completed with yields
around 1.8 to 2.4 t/ha. Quality has generally been good with few
screenings. As most of the crop area was planted to wheat a lot of rain is
required to enable January planting of sorghum and mungbeans. Fruit crop
loads are variable, with plums and apricots generally exhibiting very light
crop loads. Early variety peaches and nectarines were affected by late
season frosts, although later variety peach and nectarines are presenting a
good crop. Apples are also displaying a quality crop with the fruit sizing
well, although some Delicious crops are variable. Conditions have been
particularly favourable for early season growth of grapes. Recent rainfall
has provided good soil moisture for vegetable growers, with planting about
the "normal" or slightly higher level than average. Follow up rain is
required to sustain crop loads and maintain fruit and vegetable quality.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 50mm (109) Cairns A/P 22mm (44), Malanda
n/a (50), Ingham 19mm (47), Innisfail 56mm (n/a), Townsville 8mm (25),
Tully 44mm (n/a), Bowen 15mm (n/a), Charters Towers 2mm (n/a), Georgetown
6mm (18) and Normanton A/P 3mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P
57mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P 0.0mm (n/a), Boulia 0.0mm (13), Windorah 0.0mm
(17), Cloncurry 1mm (20), Mt Isa 1mm (20), Longreach 0.0mm (18), Muttaburra
n/a (22), Winton 0.0mm (16) and Charleville 14mm (31).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 0.8mm (34), Clermont 26mm (36), Springsure
15mm (42), Mackay 52mm (39), Yaamba 95mm (42), Biloela A/P 41mm (61), Mt
Larcom 64mm (59), Gladstone 53mm (61), and Theodore n/a (64), Yeppoon 68mm
(n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 67mm (66), Gayndah AP 72mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 51mm (71), Esk 26mm (82), Kilkivan 70mm (75), Kingaroy 37mm
(n/a), Nanango 55mm (79), Proston 38mm (70), and Beaudesert 66mm (74). On
the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 112mm (67), Maryborough 78mm (75),
Nambour 99mm (107) and Tewantin 69mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 62mm (67), Dalby 32mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 28mm (n/a),
Inglewood 53mm (58), Oakey 29mm (61), Pittsworth n/a (67), Stanthorpe 78mm
(72), Toowoomba A/P 23mm (n/a), Warwick 67mm (n/a), Roma 17mm (n/a), Miles
11mm (n/a), St George A/P 22mm (n/a) and Taroom 99mm (60).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Surface water storage is lessening with increased evaporation
in some areas. Bore supply generally seems adequate for this time of year.
West Region: All storages are adequate even though surface storages have
receded considerably. Evaporation rates will be of greatest concern during
the next months.
Central Region: During October there were some centres that recorded above
average rainfall. Storm events caused some small rises in stream flow, in
particular around Taroom although the rainfall did not trigger any
significant flows. Centres in the western regions again recorded little or
no rainfall and many streams still remain below stoppage.
South East Region: Generally surface water supplies are okay but are
starting to fall. Underground water for stock is sufficient with the
exception in the Lockyer Valley where water restriction still apply. All
major water storage systems levels continue to deteriorate with water
restrictions or total bans being placed on river and storage systems.
South Region: Rainfall for the month varied across the district, with the
Granite Belt ranging from a total of 77mm at Applethorpe to in excess of
100mm in southern parts of the district. There was a little bit of runoff
but not enough to significantly affect water reserves, particularly in the
northern part of the district. Farm dams are still well below full
capacity, ranging from 30 to 75%, however weirs and rivers have been
replenished. Scattered storm activity during the middle of the month did
not have any impact on stream flow throughout the region. Substantial rains
are required to start streams flowing again and significant follow up
events are needed to maintain a base flow in the tributaries and major
trunk streams. Above ground storages are steadily depleting as there has
not been any recharge for a number of months.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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