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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The 30 day average of the Southern Oscillation Index as at the end of September is minus 3.23 This means the SOI has remained in a "Consistently Near Zero" phase for the second month in a row. Based on the current SOI phase and the available historical rainfall records for Queensland there is a 40 to 50% chance of getting above median rainfall through to the end of December across most of Queensland. However there are some areas especially in the north and west of the state that have a lower 30 to 40% chance of getting above median rainfall through to the end of December.

Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central Pacific from the international dateline running east towards South America remain warmer than normal. This pattern can be described as a "border line El Nino". It has been predicted that this pattern could continue on into early 2005.

While the current SST pattern is not usually as serious as the El Nino that occurred between 2002 and 2003, it can still have major impact on Queensland rainfall and water supply, especially if the SOI were to return to a "Consistently Negative SOI Phase".

STATE OVERVIEW:

The dry conditions continue across the majority of the state with an increased fire danger as bushfire season approaches. Pastures are at their driest and the days are getting hotter. Producers continue to destock while good prices are still being achieved for cattle.

There has been no significant rain across the state and water supplies in general are slowly depleting. The exception being around the Charleville area where in the early part of the month rainfall up to 100 mm was recorded, with 75mm being a very common total. There are currently 46 shires and 8 part shires declared under State drought processes which represents 50% of the land area of the State. There are also an additional 136 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 23 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: September is the driest month in the north and this year followed the normal pattern. The days are now starting to warm up and there is always a potential for some early, but generally isolated, storms in October. The bushfire season is now at its peak with pastures at their driest and the days getting hotter. In the extensive areas producers continue their supplementation programs and destocking to take advantage of the high prices. It is generally expected that the turnoff of cattle will ease in the coming weeks as animals in marketable condition become limited and producers know that rain is that little bit closer. The cane crush continues to progress well with ideal harvesting conditions across the north. Some areas are now starting to require rain as crops are starting to show the effects of moisture stress. Depressed prices and water shortages are impacting on the Bowen cropping season with growers facing uncertainty over what water will be available next year.

West Region: A rain influence delivered some very beneficial falls in the southern area of the region in the early part of the month. Within a 50 km radius of Charleville, up to 100 mm was recorded, with 75mm being a very common total. In contrast, the remainder of the region has received no significant rainfall. Temperatures have increased dramatically during the month, and those areas that did not receive the rainfall have continued to deteriorate. Stock continue to be lightened off as market values remain buoyant. Dry stock are generally holding at about condition score 3, although this is directly related to the low stocking rates rather than total pasture quantity and quality.

Central Region: No major changes in the seasonal conditions to report this month. The dry spell has continued and many areas are reporting close to the driest period on record. Cattle prices have held up well and stock numbers are down. There are still some fat cattle around. For the most part there is enough dry feed, albeit of variable quality. Supplementary feeding is being carried out to make the best of the dry feed. There are areas where the surface supply is critical, but generally supplies are adequate. There was some rainfall early in the month, but it was the exception rather that the norm. Up to 20 mm fell in a few places, but caused no lasting effect.

South-East Region: Conditions have deteriorated throughout September even after receiving early rainfalls averaging between 5 to 20 mm inland and 40 to 50mm in some coastal areas. The combination of dry cool conditions, ineffective rainfalls, windy and hot days has reduced the nutritional value of pastures. Generally stock are holding well with the exception being cows with calves. The last four months have been extremely dry.

South Region: Stock condition appears to be good given the limited quantities of available pastures. Due to the increased number of cattle being sent for sale, prices have now dropped compared to the previous few months. Supplementary feeding has commenced earlier than normal in some areas of the region. Generally crops are fairing well although there has been a noticeable increase in mice activity. Water storages continue to deplete.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Generally across the region livestock condition has continued to slip slightly in line with the seasonal decline of pasture quality and quantity for this time of the year. Supplementation of protein and urea is occurring in many parts of the region. Hot dry winds have caused some extensive drying out of pasture grass with any moisture content. Tablelands and wet coast pasture condition remains stable with limited growth due to cooler conditions. Around the Mareeba Stock district, pasture is holding except around the Daintree/Mossman areas. West Mareeba and northern Carpentaria appear to be the driest areas. Out of season calving and unweaned cows are in generally in poor condition. Cattle sales have averaged 2200 head for September reflecting the current market and the generally good season up to now. In the Malanda area stock are in good condition. Pastures are very dry across the Bowen area and range from reasonable coverage to denuded. Sections of the Collinsville area are fairing worst. All properties are now feeding some form of drought supplementation. Livestock range from good to score 1, depending on location, management and climatic conditions. Stock sales are escalating rapidly while the prices are still good. Water storages across the shire are low, with those in the southeast section the worst. Rivers and streams have dried back to the main waterholes.

West Region: In the north west area there has been no improvement in conditions. The amount of bulk pastures currently available may prove sufficient for the later periods. Some properties with declining pasture quality have commenced supplementary feeding programs to assist stock. Stock condition currently remains strong and generally is score 3, however low stocking rates are contributing to both condition of pasture and stock. Stock movements are variable along the "Line". Some areas are continuing to provide sale cattle to the south as producers lighten off. In the Central West area, conditions have not changed since the previous month. Pastures continue to deteriorate as the area enters the driest period of the year. Soft herbages and annual grasses have disappeared and large areas of dead Mitchell grass are prominent. Supplementary feeding has recommenced to assist stock, however cattle condition remains strong, Score 3, which is the direct result of the low stocking rates rather than pasture quantity. The north east Aramac area is reported to be critical as no effective rains have been received since the beginning of the year. The South West has seen a rain influence delivering up to 100 mm of rain across a 50 km radius of Charleville in the early weeks of the month. The 98mm in Charleville has been recorded as a record for September. Buffell Grass has responded quickly to this rain, however, Mitchell country requires significantly more to force a response. Without follow up rains this response will quickly burn off in the heat. The 20mm recorded around Quilpie has provided a green pick which will be quickly burnt off without follow rains in the next few weeks. Cunnamulla has received less than the Charleville area, but responses in herbages will provide sheep with valuable pick. Stock condition remains strong.

Central Region: In the Banana and Calliope districts stock have held up well considering no rain was received during the winter months. Breeders that have now calved are feeling the pinch whilst those yet to calve remain sound. The grass is well hayed off and the nutritional value is low. It would be expected that pastures will respond quickly now with any fall of rain. Stock are in good store condition in the Belyando and Northern Peak Downs area with a large number of properties still sending good quality fat cattle to meatworks. The majority of the stock in Jericho shire are in a good forward store condition. Breeders are holding well and this is probably reflective of the conservative stocking rates that some properties have adopted as part of a change in management. Most properties are supplementary feeding. Many calves are on the ground due to the early break in last season which will impact on cow condition if dry weather persists. There is a reasonable bulk of pasture across the majority of the Central region although the eastern part of the Belyando shire is still the worst area on the black soil with no real prospects of improvement in the short term. The northern section of Peak Downs is experiencing similar conditions to Belyando. There is a good bulk of quality pasture available in the area west of Alpha, this being due to the good rainfall experienced early in the year. The area to the east of Alpha in the heavier country is reasonable with some properties better off due to a decrease in stocking rates. Baralaba and Camboon are the worst areas with concerns starting to come in from producers in the Banana and Barfield areas.

South-East Region: Cows with calves are rapidly deteriorating in condition. Overall, all other stock are holding, with good conditioned stock being presented at saleyards. Across all districts there is a large increase in supplementary feeding to breeders and young stock. Many of the smaller producers are taking advantages of lower grain prices and finishing off stock for sale. Dairy producers generally are having to increase feeding to maintain production. Pasture quality and quantity is rapidly deteriorating and will decrease further with the oncoming hotter conditions and lack of moisture.

South Region: Stock condition has slipped as a consequence of limited available pasture although animals are holding average body condition. Prices being achieved for cattle have dropped as a result of the higher number of stock being sold through the saleyards. Owners are continuing to lighten off. There are isolated places, such as in the North East Wambo shire, where supplementary feeding has started earlier then normal. Licks are being used to utilise the available pasture. Generally stock water storages are adequate.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: Ground preparation for summer crop planting continues on the Tablelands. A winter crop of peanuts planted at Lakeland Downs was harvested with good yields. A large crop of lupins is ready to be harvested on the Tablelands and good yields are anticipated. Minor crops of barley and wheat are also nearing harvesting. Mango, avocado and lychee trees are having an extremely good season and are flowering well. The potato harvest continues but prices have fallen substantially due to an oversupply from southern areas, which had limited crops in previous years due to drought. Tree crop irrigation is in full swing. Growers are hoping for a good fruit set which will ensure a large mango crop this year. In the Bowen district the season is progressing but depressed prices and the water shortages are affecting grower confidence. There have been some late plantings of tomatoes in anticipation of high prices late in the season, although these crops could be at risk to attack from pests, so the outcome is yet to be determined. The cane harvest continues across the north region this month with the dry weather providing perfect harvesting conditions with minimal delays. In the Herbert district the harvest is about 70% completed. CCS remains good and the crop is growing well. The area around Abergowrie is showing some signs of moisture stress and needs rain. In the Tully district the crop cutting is slightly below estimate due to dry conditions late in the growth phase. A large amount of plant cane has gone in and if the season is favourable another big crop is anticipated next year.

Central Region: No useful rain was recorded during the month in the Callide and Dawson, although parts of the Callide valley have seen small areas of sorghum and mungbeans planted. However for the majority of growers, significant rainfall is still required before they will be able to plant a summer crop. There are small areas of winter crop planted, and the first of these are now approaching harvest. Yields will be dictated by the amount of irrigation applied as there has been no in crop rain in most cases. Around the Central Highlands wheat crops have been harvested and most ranged from 0.5 to 1 tonne per hectare. Chickpeas have also been harvested and most ranged from 0.5 to 0.8 tonnes per hectare. Many growers have missed out on a winter crop and in some cases there are paddocks that have not had a crop in them for 12 months. Goods falls are desperately needed by the end of the year. The Mackay Whitsunday region has likewise received no useful rain, and although the current year's crop harvest is approaching the end, the percentage of returns are down.

South-East Region: The cropping situation in the South East has remained relatively unchanged. Generally, only those growers with irrigation have what could be called viable crops. This is largely in the coastal areas. Water supplies in most areas remain a problem for irrigators except in the Bundaberg district and some of the coastal areas. Planting prospects in areas such as the North and South Burnett will depend on substantial planting rain. Avocado harvest is completed in the region and flowering has begun although it is too early to say how good fruit set is. September was a busy month for pineapple growers who have been both harvesting and planting. Fields are still looking very brown and stressed because of the dry winter weather which will undoubtedly reduce 2004/2005 yields. During September strawberry production per plant is expected to increase dramatically as the weather warms and the plants mature. The harvesting season for low chill stonefruit has begun and fruit quality, yields and prices have all been good. Macadamia harvesting was completed in early September.

South Region: The summer rain was good in most areas with carry over feed for winter although the rain that fell this month was too late to produce winter herbage and medics. There has been some response to the pasture production, although it is too early to gain any reasonable result. Wheat crops east of Goondiwindi are likely to produce promising yields thanks to recent rainfall received in the order of 75mm to 100mm. Areas to the west could yield similarly although the poorer country and conventionally tilled crops are performing poorly. Long-fallowed summer crop country is now ready to be planted to summer crop. Dry conditions continue on the eastern, central and northern Darling Downs. There has been some frost damage in the few crops planted and they are being grazed off. Wheat crops have started turning. Cotton areas are being pre-irrigated but more rain needed as on-farm supplies are inadequate for the season. Pastures are poor and the fire hazard high. At Roma dry conditions have followed the rain several weeks ago, which saved the winter crop. There is considerable white tipping from dry conditions and some minor frost damage. Dry conditions persist around St George. Average yields are expected from the wheat crop although there may be some that yield 2.6 to 2.8 t/ha. At Miles the wheat crop is average with harvesting likely to start in 3 to 4 weeks. There has been little frost damage. Oats and herbage have all finished up through lack of rain and warmer temperatures in recent weeks. Some minor mice activity is being reported across the South region.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 96mm (122) Cairns A/P 6mm (33), Malanda 11mm (36), Ingham 42mm (33), Innisfail 55mm (n/a), Townsville 6mm (10), Tully 41mm (n/a), Bowen 6mm (n/a), Charters Towers 4mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.0mm (5) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 4mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P 0.0mm (n/a), Boulia 0.00mm (6), Windorah 12mm (9), Cloncurry n/a (6), Mt Isa 0.00mm (6), Longreach 3mm (9), Muttaburra 4mm (10), Winton 2mm (7) and Charleville 98mm (21).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 14mm (18), Clermont 4mm (15), Springsure 27mm (26), Mackay 5mm (15), Yaamba 22mm (24), Biloela A/P 30mm (26), Mt Larcom 8mm (22), Gladstone 21mm (24), and Theodore 31mm (28).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 25mm (29), Gayndah AP 27mm (n/a), Mundubbera 24mm (29), Esk 16mm (37), Kilkivan 24mm (31), Kingaroy 19mm (n/a), Nanango 23mm (33), Proston 30mm (31), and Beaudesert 27mm (38). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 44mm (30), Maryborough 59mm (29), Nambour 31mm (43) and Tewantin 43mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 21mm (38), Dalby 25mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 82mm (n/a), Inglewood 50mm (41), Oakey 24mm (32), Pittsworth 39mm (33), Stanthorpe 37mm (48), Toowoomba A/P 18mm (n/a), Warwick 27mm (n/a), Roma 29mm (n/a), Miles 39mm (n/a), St George A/P 42mm (n/a) and Taroom 28mm (28).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water storage is depleting with increased evaporation in some areas. Bore supply generally seems adequate for this time of year. Streams are drying back and seasonal water holes are drying out causing cattle to congregate on the permanent waters. Surface water is low in most areas of the district. Around Charters Towers bore water supplies are lessening as pressure is put on local supply which, may pose a problem in the future, as some properties are getting desperate for water in larger paddocks with carting water the only option in some cases.

West Region: All storages are adequate even though surface storages have receded considerably. Evaporation rates will be the biggest cause in receding levels during the next months.

Central Region: Some rainfall was recorded early in the month that provided light relief for certain areas. However, as there was no follow up rain, totals still registered below average with no significant runoff. Mackay streams remain low. Waterpark Creek is very low. Around the Belyando the general feeling across the areas is that water supplies are adequate and holding up well. Livingstone and Fitzroy surface water is critical in areas. There has been an increase in the number of drought claims received for the carting of water for stock purposes.

South East Region: Overall the levels of surface water supplies are adequate although as temperatures start to increase these will begin to fall. Generally though, underground water for stock is sufficient except in the Lockyer Valley where water restrictions still apply. There are some exceptions where water problems are becoming critical. All major water storage systems levels continue to deteriorate with water restrictions or total bans being placed on river and storage systems creating some problems with irrigators.

South Region: Above ground storages are steadily depleting as there has not been any recharge for a number of months.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.