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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell from minus 1.3 at the end of March to minus 10.8 at the end of April. Based on this shift in value there is generally less than a 50% chance of getting above median rainfall for May to July across most of Queensland. Some areas of the state (mainly in western Queensland) have as low as a 20 to 30% chance of getting above median rainfall. A notable exception to this is for parts of the extreme south east coastal strip and for parts of the far north tropical coast where there is a 60 to 80% chance of getting above median rainfall.

Currently there is around double the normal level of risk of an El Niņo developing. Therefore SOI movement and Pacific Ocean sea temperature changes during the next four weeks will be crucial. For example, if SOI values remain consistently negative for the rest of this month there will be a further corresponding fall in rainfall probabilities across most of the state, irrespective of El Niņo development.

STATE OVERVIEW:

In the North region dry conditions prevail with the exception being around the coastal fringe. Cattle are continuing to be sold in line with current seasonal conditions. Cropping areas are experiencing average to below yields as a result of insufficient rainfall. In the West almost non existent rainfall has caused conditions to slide further. Only those areas to the east and north of Longreach are generally a little better. The South-East region remains dry except for the coastal strip. There has been patchy rainfall although it is well below average for this time of the year. Pastures are now starting to suffer while water is becoming a problem as both surface and underground supplies decline. In the Central region dry conditions continue across most of the district. This is causing pastures to hay off although most areas still have a good body of feed. Surface water is starting to become a concern although generally stock are still in good condition. The South region has again recorded no significant rain and this has reflected on pastures. Stock are generally in good condition although the onset of winter could cause condition to fall. Without good rainfall in the coming weeks any chance of a winter crop will be diminished. Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries declared the drought status of Pittsworth Shire as at 18 April 2005 and Warwick Shire as at 23 April 2005. There are currently 47 shires and 8 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 55.1% of the land area of the State. There are also 162 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 21 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: Another dry month across the region and with the exception of the wet tropical coast most areas received below average rainfall. This continues on from the previous two months with the north experiencing a very dry finish to the wet season. Beef producers continue to review and reduce their numbers in line with seasonal conditions. Most of the cropping areas are experiencing an average to slightly below average season as rainfall received has been sufficient for reasonable crop growth. West Region: Rainfall across the region has been almost non- existent for the month of April. As a result, conditions have only continued to slide. Generally, the south west areas have had little or no beneficial rainfall this season. Areas to the east and north are generally better situated although conditions are far from being favourable.

Central Region: Most parts of the Central region recorded well below median rainfall for April. Grain producers in the Central Highlands continue to deal with on going dry conditions. Cotton growers who have irrigated continue to enjoy a good season, with a combination of a relatively mild summer and new transgenic crop varieties producing very good yields. Stock remain in good condition, however a number of areas have received very little summer rainfall and are making preparations to commence dry season supplementation. Surface water storages in a number of areas are being quickly depleted.

South-East Region: April has seen a continuation of the dry conditions throughout most of the South East with the exception being the coastal strip. The rainfall received has been patchy and considerably less than average for this time of the year. Cropping industries are reporting a poor summer crop for most producers with very little chance for a winter crop as soil moisture levels are extremely low. Pastures have held out reasonably well given the small amount of patchy rainfall received. However these pastures are now suffering and are reported to be at a stage of decline which would not normally be experienced until later in the season. Both surface and underground supplies are declining rapidly.

South Region: Conditions remained very dry over April with rainfall totals ranging well below average. Accordingly pasture production has been greatly reduced. Although stock is generally satisfactory at this point, producers could expect condition to fall during the onset of the colder weather. To ensure a winter planting in the western areas of the region falls of around 50mm of rain are needed. There has been no recharge for groundwater storages and no significant change to stream flows. Water storage in the Granite Belt has receded which may be of concern for future crop production.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: The region remains dry and the hope of any further pasture growth this season has gone. Producers now looking at what pastures they do have and are planning their dry season management. In the Mareeba district rainfall was generally well below average. The number of cattle going through the saleyards has decreased however prices have slipped and possibly causing producers to delay selling for a little longer. Some properties west of Mareeba have already completed yearly turn off due to deteriorating pasture quality and quantity. The majority of stock in the Georgetown district is in good condition as there is a good body of feed in most areas. Some areas in the south and east of the shire and along the Gilbert River are going into the dry season with a lighter than usual body of grass. Around Normanton the wet season was below average for most gulf properties although stock generally look good for this time of year. Pastures have dried off and the drier conditions will see the value start to fall away over the coming months. Stock appear to be in fair to good condition for most areas but will decline as winter approaches. Surface water is becoming reasonably scarce, with not too many creeks running at this stage. Underground supplies appear to be holding.

West Region: The country around Cloncurry continues to look good for this time of the year. Much of the Spinifex is green although the Buffel grass is beginning to hay off. Both are carrying a good bulk of feed. Pastures in the southern areas are starting to burn and hay off prematurely. In many areas, Mitchelll Grass has failed to respond for the third consecutive summer. The country between Barcaldine and Longreach, remains black stubble with little to no response. The area south of Longreach towards Stonehenge and Isisford/Yaraka, through to the southwest border and channel country areas remain very dry. Cattle are generally in good condition, although this is attributed to the low stocking rates rather than pasture quality and quantity. In the south west, rainfall over the past month has basically been non-existent apart from a small recording at Quilpie. Those areas around Augathella and Morven that fared better earlier in the summer still have some green in the pasture stand. Many areas are becoming denuded of vegetation due to the combination of the light season, hot / dry conditions and prevailing winds. Stock numbers in the area of the South-West are generally low and trends suggest numbers will continue to decrease at an accelerated rate. Dry stock are generally in store to forward store condition and some isolated areas still have well conditioned animals on hand. Sheep producers are still deciding whether or not to join remaining ewes and hope for a winter or spring break.

Central Region: Dry conditions have returned through April with below average rainfall received across much of the region. Any areas that were fortunate enough to have had good pasture response have seen these pastures hay off quickly due to the extended dry period and wind conditions. This has further increased the need for properties to supplementary feed. Most areas still possess a fair body of feed but quality is quickly declining. Some producers in the Theodore region are becoming concerned that their property water reserves are getting low and may not carry them through winter without significant relieving rain. Those areas south of Rockhampton still have good reserves due to better rainfall over summer. Stock condition remains fair to good. Early weaning is occurring on many properties as well as increased livestock movements to sale or slaughter. Many producers are electing to offload cattle while prices remain reasonable rather than drought feed. Supplementation feeding has begun on a number of properties.

South-East Region: Breeders are starting to fall off in condition while most other stock are generally in good condition. This is due to the lighter than normal numbers being run in most areas. Where stock numbers are high, condition falls away considerably. Supplementary feeding is being conducted to maintain marketable condition. Only approximately 10-20% of producers are currently drought feeding. Many dairy farmers are feeding reserves which would normally be held over for later in winter and therefore shortfalls in available fodder may be experienced as the effects of winter are experienced. Pasture quality and quantity is declining considerably throughout the region. The patchy rainfall received has been insufficient for good pasture growth. The exception of this is the near coastal strip which has received good levels of rainfall. Available pasture is currently of fair to good quality although limited in quantity.

South Region: In general, pasture growth has been greatly affected by below average rainfall during 2005. Total dry standing matter for this time of year when compared to historical records is average to below. The best pasture response has been in the more southern parts of the region. Now that the end of the summer pasture season has concluded, there is a real concern that there may not be sufficient feed to carry stock over the winter. Stock numbers are down as a consequence of dry times and producers have been destocking inline with declining pasture conditions. Cattle are in average to below average body condition and going into winter with low pasture quality may be a concern to many producers. Many western shires are now drought feeding, in particular Booringa, and without further reduction in stock numbers across the remainder of the region, supplementation feeding will be widespread.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Tablelands it has been a dry season but overall crops are generally looking good. Growers have commenced digging early planted peanut crops in preparation for harvest. Maize crops are growing well but have also suffered some disease and moisture stress. This has mainly been noticeable in the Tolga and Lakeland areas. Overall yields are anticipated to be slightly below average. The potato season has commenced and flowering is already evident on the early planted crops. Good seasonal conditions in the Innisfail district have seen a peak in banana production. The cropping season continues in the Bowen region with growers operating on 75% water allocation. There are reports that some pawpaw trees are experiencing root rot from prolonged levels of high soil moisture although fruit production levels remain high. While the recent dry conditions have been perfect for mangoes, a late vegetative flush of growth in some trees is causing concern. Growth at this stage of the production cycle may utilise energy normally reserved for flowering and therefore reduce yields. The warmer than normal temperatures may be the probable cause. On the Tablelands there has been some planting of fallow and replant cane. Growers have commenced drying down their blocks in preparation for harvest. The current crop is estimated to yield around average and harvest is due to commence in the last week of May. In the Burdekin growers have been planting their fallow blocks and continue to irrigate. In the Ingham district the cane crop is reasonable although further rain would be welcomed to assist growth.

Central Region: April has generally been a drier month in the Dawson and Callide valleys, with highest totals around 30 - 50 mm. In many places, totals have been less than 10 mm, continuing the trend of patchy rainfall of the past season. The lack of rain has been a bonus for many of the later planted sorghum crops that are now close to harvest or were harvested in the last month. Average temperatures have been dropping which has meant that it has taken longer than normal for maturing sorghum and mungbean crops to reach an acceptable moisture level for harvest. Most of the remaining mungbean crops will be harvested before the end of next month. Rain needs to fall in the next two months before the winter crop planting window closes. Conditions remain relatively unchanged in the Central Highlands since last month. Prospects of a good winter crop remain low due to the lack of rain. It is estimated that 50,000 - 60,000 ha of sorghum will not be harvested. The Central Highlands cotton season is drawing to a halt and while cotton quality and turn-out have been reasonable, there have been some reports of low turn outs on late picked cotton. Some growers have commenced pre-irrigating their fields for wheat and chickpeas. Around Rockhampton many crops have lost enough yield potential, that even in the event of excellent late season rain, prospects would not be significantly improved.

South-East Region: Light falls have done little to help cropping and only tended to interfere with the harvest although there will be some planting of winter oats on these showers. Peanut yields and quality have generally been poor. Growers have been actively baling peanut hay. Some late corn crops are looking reasonable but most yields are not expected to exceed 2.5 t/ha. The only exception is in the Byee and Monto districts where irrigation has been available. Soybean and cotton have been good with favourable harvesting conditions. Heatwave weather and dry seasonal conditions have affected some soybean and navy bean crops. Winter crop prospects are not optimistic since profile moisture is poor and low prices are limiting the likelihood of growers adopting a more risky approach to planting on marginal moisture. Bundaberg-Maryborough area is registering reasonable success especially with peanuts and soybeans with average to better yields due to the overall availability of irrigation water and some timely in-crop rainfall. Soybean quality has been acceptable but coastal showery weather is starting to impact on quality of soy and peanut crops during the current harvest period. Harvesting of the Hass avocado has begun. Pineapple growers report that whilst the amount of fruit harvested is as expected, the size of fruit is smaller than normal and this is leading to reduced tonnages. Macadamia yields of this years crop are so far satisfactory, although slightly down on last years returns. Custard apple harvesting continued through April while the planting of strawberry runners is completed. Early varieties are expected to start producing fruit around the second half of May. Persimmon harvesting of the early season variety Giro was completed in April and harvesting of the main season variety Fuyu began. Prices were reported to be average for the domestic market but down on the export market.

South Region: On the Darling Downs the continuing dry conditions have assisted the cotton pick with yields ranging from very good to very poor. There has been very little oats planted and no bulk on the pasture country. Without rain in the coming weeks some winter plantings will be at risk of crop failure due to the lack of subsoil moisture. The current wheat outlook shows a 40-70% probability of yields exceeding the long-term median for the central and southern Downs. For the northern Downs there is a 20-30% chance of wheat yields exceeding the long-term median. Large falls are needed to recharge profiles for a decent winter crop. Growers in the Border Rivers district are waiting for rain forecasts prior to making decisions on planting as dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures prevail. Falls of at least 50mm are required to the east of Goondiwindi before planting should proceed. Higher falls will be required to the west.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average) North Region: Babinda received 650mm (612) Cairns A/P 185mm (230), Malanda n/a (176), Ingham 144mm (221), Innisfail 489mm (457), Townsville 19mm (75), Tully Sugar Mill 561mm (577), Bowen 36mm (76), Charters Towers 10mm (35), Georgetown 4mm (32) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 112mm (146).

West Region: Birdsville A/P 0.0mm (n/a), Boulia 0.0mm (15), Windorah 3mm (24), Cloncurry n/a (17), Mt Isa 0.0mm (14), Longreach 0.0mm (43), Muttaburra n/a (33), Winton 0.0mm (28) and Charleville 0.0mm (31).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 1mm (28), Clermont 2mm (44), Springsure 6mm (44), Mackay 158mm (160), Yaamba 27mm (72), Biloela A/P 11mm (40), Mt Larcom 15mm (55), Gladstone 5mm (59), and Theodore 13mm (46), Yeppoon 41mm (91).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 12mm (50), Gayndah AP 4mm (n/a), Mundubbera 12mm (50), Esk 26mm (73), Kilkivan 18mm (64), Kingaroy 10mm (n/a), Nanango 9mm (54), Proston 7 (52), and Beaudesert 9mm (77). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 54mm (69), Maryborough 79mm (86), Nambour 204mm (158) and Tewantin 248mm (162).

South Region: Clifton n/a (43), Dalby 0.8mm (18), Goondiwindi 0.0mm (15), Inglewood n/a (43), Oakey 1mm (36), Pittsworth n/a (40), Stanthorpe n/a (38), Toowoomba A/P 9mm (29), Warwick 1mm (19), Roma 0.2mm (35), Miles 0.4mm (36), St George A/P 0.0mm (36) and Taroom 9mm (43).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Water supplies vary across the region but overall there does not appear to be any great alarm. The only concern is for surface water in the Normanton and Townsville stock districts.

West Region: Water supplies are variable throughout the region. Some properties in the Isisford area and far western properties are experiencing water shortages. The Far South-West corner has reported dams drying up which is putting extra pressure on bores.

Central Region: Rainfall totals were again well below average for most centres, with the exception of Mackay. As a result, many stream heights/flows around the region continued to fall.

South East Region: Water is becoming a problem with no run off having been received from recent storms. Both surface and underground supplies are declining rapidly.

South Region: There are concerns for the region as there has not been sufficient runoff rain to lift dam capacity levels. There has been no recharge for ground water storages and no significant change to stream flows.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.