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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK: The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained relatively stable from the end of June (plus 0.5) to the end of July (plus 1.6) putting the SOI in a 'Near Zero' phase. Based on this phase and historical rainfall records for August to October most of Queensland has a 40 to 50% chance of getting above median rainfall. The exception to this is the strip running from the central Queensland coast to the peninsular where there is a lower 20 to 40% chance of getting above median rainfall.

It is worth noting that Queensland is in its 'dry season' with August and September having the lowest median monthly rainfall for most locations in Queensland. Rainfall for the three month period May to July was average to above average for most of Queensland. The exception to this was in parts of northern Queensland where below average rainfall was recorded.

Currently the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has low amplitude and is somewhat hard to discern. This is due to strong monsoon activity over India, SE Asia and convection over the South China Sea. The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO to be a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events (but not amounts) across much of Queensland.

STATE OVERVIEW:

August is historically one of the driest months and generally the lack of significant rainfall across the State has resulted in increased concerns regarding falling and depleted water reserves. Stock numbers are generally lower than normal holding capacity because producers have elected to sell while prices were high rather than drought feed. Pasture response has varied across the State although the general condition of most native pastures is low in quality and quantity. There are currently 61 shires and 7 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 60.6% of the land area of the State. There are also 104 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 15 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: The winter in the north was generally mild and wet. In the extensive grazing areas pasture response to the rainfall has been good with mild conditions contributing to continued growth of many pastures throughout winter. Cattle have also responded well and are generally in fair condition for this time of year. With many areas having a good soil moisture profile and good grass cover the potential for a significant response to early summer storms is high. In the cane growing areas the wet weather caused significant delays in the crush but has helped crop growth with some record crops anticipated.

West Region: Some significant rainfalls have been received during the first few days of August. However, the rest of August has seen little to no follow up rain. A varied pasture response was reported due to this rainfall across the central and southern shires and depended on previous seasonal conditions, temperatures, soil, pasture types and grazing pressures. Water supplies are variable throughout the region.

Central Region: Unseasonal above median rain fell along the coastal strip of the Central region during the month. However, the majority of the interior of the region received median to below median rainfall. Surface water storage is still a major concern across much of the region.

South-East Region: Some areas in the South-East have recorded close to average rainfall for August but the majority received below average rainfall. Native pastures are low in quality and quantity throughout the region. The green pick that had resulted from the June rains has either been fed off, frosted or is rapidly drying off due to the lack of follow up rain. With the good cattle prices being offered many producers are either selling surplus stock or putting them through feedlots to bring them in a saleable condition.

South Region: In general, there has been a lack of rainfall across the majority of the South region. Pasture quality and quantities have deteriorated although there is good winter herbage. Stock numbers across the majority of the region have reduced as pastures decline and high cattle prices limit the capacity to buy stock. Animals are in average to below body condition. Stock water for many producers is still in short supply. Many grain crops are in head or flowering and require follow up rain in the next 2-3 weeks.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: The region experienced some useful rain for August following on from the July totals with the exception of the Normanton Stock District, where pasture is dry and low in nutritional value. Charters Towers received very useful soaking falls at the beginning of the month. Strong dry winds experienced late in August have dried out a lot of pasture and put pressure on surface water supplies through increased evaporation. The combination of mild winter temperatures and better than average rainfall has allowed for a positive response to the start of spring.

West Region: In the Northwest the country around Cloncurry and Mt Isa is very patchy. The red soil country is average and the black soil country is deteriorating. Duchess and Dajarra received late rain and have had a good response to this rain. Flinders Grass, weed and herbages have dominated pastures in most areas. Cattle are continuing to move out of the Julia Creek district with the majority going to southern saleyards or private paddock sales. Stock condition for the cattle on the Downs is good despite the poor quality of the pasture and as can be expected for this time of the year the forest cattle are in light condition. The majority of the Central West area received little rainfall during August however areas at Winton and Middleton received significant falls at the end of July and the beginning of August. The pasture response from August rainfall has depended on previous seasonal conditions, temperatures, soil, pasture types and grazing pressures. Throughout the Longreach region herbage has responded quite well to the earlier rain this month. Winton received significant rain at the beginning of August and as a result there has been a great deal of winter herbage growth and some pasture response. This area is very green with the green pick extending down the Jundah road and toward Middleton. Generally the overall condition of stock is still good. Most of the South West area has reasonable herbage for sheep but fodder for cattle is very low. The Quilpie area is still showing limited response despite above average rainfall in August. Stock numbers in general are very low and trends suggest numbers will not increase at an accelerated rate. Livestock, as a general rule, are in store condition after gaining some condition during July.

Central Region: Generally across the region pasture reserves are adequate for this time of year. Minimal frost has enabled grass to maintain some degree of freshness. Some areas to the east of Biloela have minimal pasture reserves and further destocking has taken place in these areas. Cattle generally are in good condition and this is a result of relief rain, mild conditions and pasture response in some areas. Stock numbers are generally below normal carrying capacity. Breeders are generally in good condition for calving. Most managers are carrying out some form of supplementary feeding. Generally the country remains in good condition where stock numbers have been reduced.

South-East Region: Generally, stock are in store condition but are now tending to lose condition due to the lack of rain and therefore pasture growth. With the good cattle prices being offered producers are either selling surplus stock or putting them through feedlots to bring them in a saleable condition. Restocking rates are low as producers have taken advantage of the buoyant cattle prices. Native pastures are low in quality and quantity throughout the region.

South Region: In general, there was major rainfall deficiency from January to May 2005 and as a consequence the quality and quantity of summer pasture deteriorated over these months. There was however some good rain received throughout May and June. This in addition to the mild conditions promoted a good body of winter herbage. The May/June rain generated forage crop growth generally over the central and western parts of the region. Stock numbers across most of the region have been reduced as declining pasture conditions persist. Additionally, the high cattle prices have limited the capacity to buy stock. Animals are in average to below body condition. Stock water is still in short supply in many areas.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: August was generally a wet overcast month on the Tablelands which has had varying levels of impact on crop production. The harvesting of legume seed crops continues with average yields. A very wet and warm August in the Innisfail district has seen rapid fruit development in banana crops and an early peak in production with a shortage later in the month.

Central Region: August has been another relatively dry month in the Dawson and Callide Valleys with the exception of some light falls received earlier in the month. This lack of rain and warm weather has seen the winter crops in the Callide Valley develop rapidly. Central Highlands' paddocks that have been planted with chickpea or wheat as part of a rotation are looking good with harvesting expected to start in late September. It is estimated that 130,000ha has been planted to wheat and approximately 15,000ha planted to chickpea across the Central Highlands. Cane harvest in the Mackay and Proserpine areas is now underway. Lychees have begun to set fruit and mangoes have begun to flower.

South-East Region: Avocado harvesting is beginning to tail off although the season should continue through until the end of September for many growers. In general the strawberry crop increased towards the end of August as plants matured and a flush of production came through, although prices received by growers were reported to have fallen. There has been a good flowering in early varieties of macadamia.

South Region: It has been approximately seven weeks since the last significant fall of rain had been received in the Border Rivers area. The warm spring conditions have resulted in summer pasture growth. Rain is needed to ensure a good winter crop and successful summer cropping season on the Darling Downs. Crops already in are showing signs of moisture stress and may be severely affected if no rain is received in the next two weeks. The Maranoa/Warrego has recorded no meaningful rain for around eight weeks. Generally crops are looking good and finishing off quickly with the current warm conditions. The average yield expectations for cereals are around 2 t/ha. Winter cereals in the Western Downs are heading/flowering. While not currently showing signs of stress crops are running out of subsoil water but should generally hold on for a couple of weeks without any large impact on yield expectations. There still appears to be adequate subsoil water for a summer crop, however, an additional rainfall event of around 25 mm should start the summer cropping season off in a positive way.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 348mm (103) Cairns A/P 59mm (22), Malanda 58mm (39), Ingham 83mm (37), Innisfail 315mm (n/a), Townsville 45mm (14), Tully Sugar Mill 232mm (110), Bowen 34mm (n/a), Charters Towers 57mm (n/a), Georgetown 18mm (3) and Normanton A/P 7mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 53mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (10), Boulia 7mm (8), Windorah 16mm (9), Cloncurry 5mm (4), Mt Isa 1mm (5), Longreach 12mm (14), Muttaburra 10mm (13), Winton 52mm (6) and Charleville 7mm (22).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 2mm (22), Clermont 15mm (21), Springsure 7mm (26), Mackay 45mm (29), Yaamba 39mm (26), Biloela A/P 29mm (27), Mt Larcom 48mm (36), Gladstone 30mm (32), Theodore 10 (31), and Yeppoon 30mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded n/a (34), Gayndah AP 13mm (n/a), Mundubbera 13mm (34), Esk 6mm (35), Kilkivan 5mm (39), Kingaroy 2mm (n/a), Nanango 5mm (40), Proston 9mm (35), and Beaudesert 7mm (43). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 36mm (38), Maryborough 29mm (45), Nambour 44mm (57) and Tewantin 26mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 6mm (38), Dalby 6mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 10mm (n/a), Inglewood n/a (37), Oakey 8mm (30), Pittsworth 12 (40), Stanthorpe 13mm (48), Toowoomba 12mm (n/a), Warwick 7mm (n/a), Roma 6mm (n/a), Miles 8mm (n/a), St George A/P 9mm (n/a) and Taroom 11mm (31).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water in some of the Gulf and Peninsular is much depleted although the region in general appears to be adequate. Bore supplies are holding.

West Region: Water supplies have been variable throughout the region. The rain replenished ground water supplies across the majority of the central west. Some properties in the far south-west and north-west are experiencing water shortages. Across these areas there have been reports of dams drying up, putting extra pressure on bores. Very little has changed since July.

Central Region: Close to average rainfall for many centres during August, however there is little change to report on stream flows in the region as most are remaining fairly constant. Groundwater levels continue to fall.

South East Region: Both surface water and underground water reserves are falling as there has been no significant rainfall to replenish either. There is a general concern in the region as water levels are slowly edging towards record lows.

South Region: Rainfall during July was very sparse across the Darling Downs. The southern interior experienced an upper trough system that resulted in some light patchy rain across the eastern parts of the region. There are still some concerns for stock water as it generally appears to be in short supply.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.