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page regenerated:
07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained relatively stable and is now in a "Near Zero" phase. Based on this phase and historical rainfall data there is a 40 to 60% chance of getting above median rainfall for January to March across most of Queensland. While not as optimistic as if the SOI was in a "Consistently Positive" phase the chance of above median rainfall remains higher than this time last year when the SOI was in a "Consistently Negative" phase.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a band of low air pressure originating on the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown it to be a useful indicator of the timing, but not amounts, of potential rainfall events. Recent timing of MJO events has not been regular. However the next passage of the MJO should influence Queensland's weather in late January.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Generally across Queensland for December there has been below average rainfall although some areas received patchy storms. Pasture and stock conditions in most areas have declined due to the lack of rainfall. December was also an extremely hot month across most of the state which has increased evaporation rates and put stress on crops and pastures. Water continues to be an issue in many areas.

There are currently 61 shires and 7 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 60.6% of the land area of the State. There are also 123 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 17 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: The majority of the North Region received less than average rainfall for December 2005. Temperatures have been very hot and pastures are showing the effects of the heat and the lack of rain. The 2005 cane harvest has ended and the northern meatworks have closed for the Christmas break, with the cattle market slowing accordingly. The mango harvest is ongoing with prices and quality generally at very high levels.

West Region: December has been a hot and relatively dry and the rain received has resulted in a well below average month. The West region has also experienced searing high temperatures of above 40*C. Any rain that has fallen has generally been in short bursts and as a result has been of little benefit to many areas. Generally, stock condition has deteriorated as a result of the declining pasture quality and quantity. Stocking rates are low and in most areas are continuing to decrease.

Central Region: Most parts of the Central Region received slightly below average rainfall for December 2005. The rain that was received was very patchy and temperatures have been high therefore increasing evaporation rates. Conditions continue to be quite variable. The high daily temperatures have put many of the crops planted on marginal soil moisture into stress. Early planted areas have maturing sorghum crops approaching grain fill stage.

South-East Region: Generally most areas of the South-East Region have experienced storm rains. In some areas these storms have been patchy and in most cases insufficient to run water. The area is generally green and the hot temperatures in between scattered storms have promoted good pasture and crop growth. Cattle condition is generally good to very good for most of the region. Major water storages and aquifers are still low.

South Region: There was widespread but very patchy rain in December. Generally pasture growth is average for this time of year. However, additional falls are needed to generate any substantial quantities of feed. The areas that have had improved pasture conditions are now seeing a more favourable body condition for livestock. Hot, dry conditions have resulted in some failed crops in the northern and central Darling Downs.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Cattle are generally in fair condition, although due to the lack of rain and high temperatures during December pasture and animal condition has decreased slightly. Prices remain high as supplies of certain lines of stock become difficult to source. The hot days and lack of rain are impacting on pastures.

West Region: Generally, pasture quality and quantity in the West region is low and is deteriorating. Temperatures have been very high so far this month with temperatures above 40*C and with overnight temperatures hovering at about 30*C range which does not allow pasture plants recovery time overnight. Stock condition is starting to decline as pasture availability continues to decrease. Most properties are carrying below normal stocking rates which should allow pasture to regenerate quickly without interruption if rain is received. Generally, the majority of producers are supplementary feeding their existing stock. The situation for shires in the south west continues to be dry and is deteriorating with soaring temperatures up to 46*C.

Central Region: Pasture and stock conditions throughout the Central region are variable. Generally, in areas which have seen rain the pastures are of good quality and quantity. High temperatures and humidity have been conducive to pasture growth where there is adequate moisture. Generally stock in the region are in fair condition and in some areas are improving. However, in areas which have not received follow up rain the pasture is being dried off by the heat and stock condition is declining. Supplementary feeding is still occurring in the areas that have missed out on good rainfall.

South-East Region: Generally, livestock is in good to very good condition. Some producers are beginning to restock given the good seasonal conditions. The buoyant cattle market that is currently being experienced is making restocking at reasonable prices difficult. Pasture quality and quantity is currently responding well to the storm rain received and the hot humid conditions experienced in between these storms.

South Region: Pasture conditions have improved slightly across most areas of the region with average to above average pastures. However, the western part of the region is currently experiencing decreasing pastures in both quality and quantity due to the lack of rain recorded in this area. Generally, producers are continuing to keep their stock numbers down and some producers who wish to restock are finding it difficult with the high cattle prices. The areas that have had improved pasture conditions are now seeing a more favourable body condition. Some dairy cattle have been affected by the hot conditions resulting in a reduction in milk production.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: The major planting of maize and peanut crops has ceased on the Atherton Tablelands due to the below average rain during December. Generally only the producers with irrigation have been able to continue with their plantings. The mango harvest is under way with quality and prices at very high levels. Some mango and tropical tree fruit crops in the Mareeba district received hail damage in late November early December. The cane harvest has finished with most northern crops yielding well. Central Region: Rainfall has been quite patchy for the month of December. Very hot temperatures were recorded throughout the region which affected most crops. The sorghum crops in the Callide Valley are showing signs of stress due to such warm weather and as these crops were planted on marginal moisture they will need follow up rain in early January. The Dawson River still had a reasonable flow during December and this allowed for water harvesting opportunities by irrigators throughout the Dawson and Fitzroy River. There have been a few mungbean crops planted early in the month which developed quickly where there was good soil moisture. However, due to such warm weather some of these crops are now showing signs of heat stress. In the Central Highlands sorghum planted at the end of November is flowering and needs follow-up rain.

South-East Region: The rain during December, following on from a good October and November has been of benefit to macadamia orchards in the region. Good rainfall during the fruit development period following flowering and fruit will significantly help with the production of good nut size and quality in the 2006 harvest. The hot, wet conditions have also been beneficial for custard apples for the development of fruit. Pineapple producers continued with both harvesting and planting but the very hot and sunny weather has presented problems with sunburn damage to fruit in some instances.

South Region: Hot, dry conditions towards the end of the month have resulted in failed crops in the northern and central Darling Downs. In the Western Downs most areas received useful falls. Further follow up rain is needed to generate overland flow and enable widespread pumping to fill tank storages for the irrigated areas. Generally, the apple and grape yields have been better than average.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 177mm (331) Cairns A/P 34mm (90), Malanda n/a (146), Ingham 42mm (217), Innisfail 141mm (n/a), Townsville 58mm (148), Tully Sugar Mill 93mm (297), Bowen 0.8mm (n/a), Charters Towers 18mm (n/a), Georgetown 2mm (112) and Normanton A/P 95mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 12mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (17), Boulia 8mm (28), Windorah 4mm (27), Cloncurry n/a (58), Mt Isa 11mm (62), Longreach 5mm (51), Muttaburra 79mm (59), Winton 14mm (51) and Charleville 23mm (53).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 26mm (85), Clermont 44mm (101), Springsure 65mm (107), Mackay 0mm (197), Yaamba 132mm (131), Biloela A/P 115mm (202), Mt Larcom 85mm (150), Gladstone 72mm (140), Theodore 143mm (102), and Yeppoon 100mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 48mm (86), Gayndah AP 121mm (n/a), Mundubbera 31mm (100), Esk 73mm (111), Kilkivan 101mm (124), Kingaroy 64mm (n/a), Nanango 73mm (108), Proston 40mm (108), and Beaudesert 128mm (128). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 156mm (138), Maryborough 159mm (134), Nambour 187mm (180) and Tewantin 191mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 57mm (109), Dalby 60mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 43mm (n/a), Inglewood n/a (86), Oakey 61mm (93), Pittsworth 64 (104), Stanthorpe 42mm (95), Toowoomba AP 32mm (n/a), Warwick 54mm (n/a), Roma 44mm (n/a), Miles 132mm (n/a), St George A/P 27mm (n/a) and Taroom 133mm (104).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water generally appears to be an issue across the region although bore and under ground water supplies are adequate.

West Region: The majority of water available is artesian. High temperatures and evaporation are quickly drying up most surface waters.

Central Region: Water storages for Central Queensland remain low. The Dawson River had a reasonable run during December due to some heavy overnight rainfall in the upper catchment early in the month.

South East Region: Most major water storages and aquifers are low.

South Region: Due to the nature of rain received some dams have a good level of water whilst in other areas there has still been no runoff.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.