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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The fall in the monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from plus 1.2 at the end of January to minus 29.5 at the end of February has generated a lot of interest and has left many wondering if an El Niņo event is developing. Currently there are a number of 'early warning signs' in the Pacific. As well as the recent drop in value of the SOI these include a marked increase in sub-surface sea temperatures, recent strong westerly wind bursts (driven by the development of three tropical cyclones east of the dateline in the Pacific) and a resulting Kelvin Wave, all of which can trigger the changes in ocean and atmospheric patterns needed for an El Niņo event. However, the development of an El Niņo event in 2005 is by no means a certainty. El Niņo events usually develop in mid to late autumn so there is still plenty of time for conditions in the Pacific to change.

Based on a 'Rapidly Falling' SOI phase over January and February, the chance of average to above average rain for March to May across most of Queensland is less than 50% and drops lower to 20 to 40% for most of northern Queensland. The exception is for the region running from central/northern New South Wales into the western regions of southern Queensland where there is a 50 to 70% chance of getting average to above average rain for March to May.

STATE OVERVIEW:

There has been patchy storm rain recorded during the month resulting in well below average rainfall across much of the State. Severe Tropical Cyclone Harvey crossed the coast along the Queensland/Northern Territory border on 8 February. It weakened into a rain depression and generated useful rainfall in parts of the north-west and central-west of the State. Hot, dry and windy conditions have affected crops and pastures in many areas. There have generally been good yields from early planted sorghum crops but many later planted crops are suffering moisture stress. Condition of livestock is generally good and prices remain high. There are currently 46 shires and 8 part shires declared under State drought processes which represents 50% of the land area of the State. There are also an additional 140 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 21 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region:

February, normally one of the north regions wetter months has recorded rainfall totals well below average across the region. Insufficient follow up rain nullified the potential benefits of the good rainfall in January. The limited rainfall has affected some pastures and crops. Livestock seem to be holding, however further rainfall in March is required to give producers confidence in their ability to carry stock through winter.

West Region:

Given the lack of generalised rainfall across the region, areas have been stressed once more. but areas that were fortunate to receive the patchy storm rain have been given valuable relief. Reponses to these falls have been in Flinders Grass, herbage and other weeds. Sheep and cattle numbers in general are low. Generally water storages are adequate; however some properties in the Isisford area and far western properties are experiencing water shortages.

Central Region:

Most coastal and northern areas have experienced consistently hot conditions and well below median rainfall. Grain growers around Emerald urgently require rain to ensure near average yields for sorghum crops. In most areas surface water and pasture supplies are adequate but tenuous. At this point in the season, further good rainfall should put most producers in an acceptable position coming into the dry season. Pastures and stock are in variable condition depending on rainfall.

South-East Region:

February has been reported as one of the driest months experienced for some time. Rainfall received was in minor storms described as patchy and with no runoff and many parts of the region missed out on rain. Crops are suffering as a result of the moisture deficiency. Livestock are generally in good condition, however pastures are haying off. Water reserves are dropping.

South Region:

Conditions this month have been hot, dry and windy with rainfall well below average for the region. Most of the region has only recorded falls of between 10 to 25 mm, which reflects the generally below average pasture growth. The sorghum harvest has commenced on the Downs, with some good crops but those on lighter soil types have suffered from the dry spell. Most of the later planted sorghum and mungbean crops are in need of rain with some crops failing. The St George cotton crop is generally looking good. Rain is required urgently to ensure adequate pasture to carry stock over winter. Stock condition generally is average and has dropped due to limited pasture growth.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region:

North Region is in reasonable shape for this time of the season with generally good supplies of fodder and water. Pastures have dried out quickly due to the hot windy weather and good follow up rains are needed to continue the good start to the season. However any rain from now on may not greatly improve pastures that have hayed off. Surface water in most areas has been replenished and bore supply seems adequate for this time of year. Rainfall for February was below average in some districts across the region. Pastures range from short to good (green and growing - with some seeding and beginning to hay-off), depending on previous condition and rains received. Stock condition has generally improved in line with recent rains.

West Region:

The country around Cloncurry is generally in very reasonable condition. Much of the Spinifex is green as is the Buffle Grass, with both carrying a strong body of bulk. The quality of the pastures continues south to McKinlay and Kynuna. In the Mitchell Grass Downs area, stock is in fair to good condition. Flinders grass this year has hayed off early and annual grasses and weeds have responded well but have also deteriorated rapidly. In the Desert Uplands and Spinifex country, in general breeders with calves at foot are fair to good condition with some isolated properties with light condition breeders. Conditions in the Central West are very patchy and this is linked to the nature of storm rains. Areas that have not received beneficial storm rains have had pastures burned off significantly and many areas of Mitchell Grass have failed to respond. Herbage, weed and soft grasses have suffered as a result of the severe heat in recent weeks. In the area between Winton and Muttaburra responses have been predominately in Flinders Grass, herbage and weed. The country between Barcaldine and Longreach remains black stubble with little to no response. Stock is in good condition, the low stocking rates contributing to this rather than pasture quality and quantity. Stock numbers in general in the area of the South-West are low. Dry stock, as a general rule, are in store to forward store condition with some well conditioned animals being found in the Augathella/Morven area.

Central Region:

Stock are generally in good condition, with some in excellent condition and others slipping where the properties have missed out on the rain. In most areas surface water and pasture supplies are adequate, but further good rainfall is needed for the coming dry season. Pasture condition is generally as variable as the rainfall and is green and abundant in some areas and dry and short in others.

South-East Region:

Stock condition is generally described as being good to excellent although some breeders are dropping off in condition due to having calves at foot. Dry breeders are still in prime condition. Currently there appears to be very little stock going away to agistment and while there has been some restocking, this is slowing as conditions continue to dry off. Pasture quality and quantity varies throughout the region dependant upon the storm rainfall received and the nature of soils. The hot dry conditions are causing pasture to hay off, but the quality is still generally good.

South Region:

There has not been any appreciable rain through this month with mostly below average pasture growth. Total Dry Standing Matter is average to below, for this time of year. The best pasture response has been around the Border Rivers area where good falls of early summer rain were received. Animals are in average to good body condition with prices remaining buoyant. In some districts stock condition has dropped off due limited pasture growth. Supplementary feeding is not widespread, however if pasture producing rain does not occur shortly this could increase.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region:

On the Tablelands the dry weather has been ideal for seed crop growers providing them with fine conditions to cut back and fertilize crops. Irrigation has commenced and growers are currently active in preparing winter flowering grasses. The longan and mango harvest continues on the Tablelands and in the Mareeba Dimbulah Irrigation Area with late season mango varieties currently being picked. There have been good growing conditions for sugar cane on the Tablelands until mid February but dry conditions since then have prevailed. In the Burdekin growers continue to irrigate crops and have commenced planting.

Central Region:

In the Biloela area, the first half of the month began well with rainfall late in January and some follow up in mid February, which was an enormous benefit to those crops already planted. However, the latter part of the month has been hot and dry which will cause yield penalties in some of the December and January planted crops in paddocks where subsoil moisture profiles were not full at planting. Early sorghum has been harvested with good yields generally being recorded due to the good rainfall received in the last few months of 2004. Most of the mungbean crops planted in December are progressing well towards grain fill but some of the later planted crops will struggle if rain does not fall in the next few weeks. On the Central Highlands some useful rain in mid February has kept existing sorghum crops going and has resulted in more acreage of sorghum, along with conservative areas of sunflower, maize and mungbeans. Cloudy weather in February has slightly delayed cotton crop development and harvest but picking has begun. Sugar cane crops in the Mackay area are now suffering water stress after very hot and dry conditions during the month.

South-East Region:

Most crops are suffering due to the lack of follow up rains in February, with poor yields expected from some corn, sorghum, navy and soybean crops. Many peanut crops have little or no pods due to moisture stress despite otherwise good growing conditions. Summer season crops of sweet corn, beans, capsicums and tomatoes are being harvested in the Lockyer and Fassifern Valleys. Dry weather has helped with disease control and development of the avocado crop to be harvested later in the year and harvesting of the pineapple crop has generally progressed well, but with smaller than normal fruit. Custard Apple growers began harvesting during late February and crops are generally looking good.

South Region:

In the Border Rivers early planted sorghum crops have generally yielded very well but the December planted crop has been affected by hot, dry and windy conditions and will generally be fed off. On the Darling Downs dryland cotton crops are stressed but those with adequate water still have good yield potential. Early planted sorghum has been harvested with average to above average yields. Late planted dryland sorghum and mungbean crops generally range from poor to dead.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 213mm (738) Cairns A/P 111mm (422), Malanda n/a (286), Ingham 85mm (410), Innisfail 115mm (n/a), Townsville 8mm (232), Tully 132mm (n/a), Bowen 6mm (n/a), Charters Towers 9mm (n/a), Georgetown 58mm (208) and Normanton A/P 71mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 59mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (21mm), Boulia 6mm (41), Windorah 7mm (45), Cloncurry 51mm (n/a), Mt Isa 100mm (86), Longreach 41mm (69), Muttaburra 49mm (71), Winton 86mm (80) and Charleville 11mm (55).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 64mm (81), Clermont 58mm (104), Springsure 150mm (113), Mackay 42mm (302), Yaamba 171mm (127),

Biloela A/P 83mm (83), Mt Larcom 58mm (129), Gladstone 69mm (140), and Theodore 77mm (90), Yeppoon 20mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 65mm (81), Gayndah AP 52mm (n/a), Mundubbera 54mm (74), Esk 8mm (100), Kilkivan 20mm (94),

Kingaroy 52mm (n/a), Nanango 25mm (86), Proston n/a (77), and Beaudesert 24mm (109). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 93mm (148), Maryborough 67mm (163), Nambour 63mm (224) and Tewantin 47mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 55mm (87), Dalby 11mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 3mm (n/a), Inglewood 25mm (68), Oakey 7mm (84), Pittsworth 25mm (76),

Stanthorpe 41mm (81), Toowoomba A/P 14mm (n/a), Warwick 35mm (n/a), Roma 15mm (n/a), Miles 42mm (n/a), St George A/P 32mm (n/a)

and Taroom 8mm (76).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water replenished in most areas and bore supply seems adequate.

West Region: Water supplies are variable throughout the region. Generally storages are adequate, however some properties in the Isisford area and far western properties are experiencing water shortages. The far South West corner has had dams drying up putting extra pressure on bores.

Central Region: Surface water adequate but falling. Some small flow events were recorded early in the month, however, many streams are now steadily receding. Waterpark Creek has had some improved flows, but remains low. In the Mackay district, the monthly flows for the Pioneer River were about 5% of median monthly flow. Inland systems such as the Dawson, Mackenzie and Comet Rivers have recorded 20%-40% of median monthly flow.

South East Region: Water reserves are dropping. In the Lockyer and Fassifern Valleys there has been no significant runoff or stream flows and no recharge to the aquifer.

South Region: Not sufficient runoff rain to lift dam capacity levels. Very hot conditions have increased evaporation and consumption levels in many areas. Many streams have dried back to permanent holes in some areas.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.