SITUATION AS AT 31 JANUARY 2005
OUTLOOK:
Recent storm activity and low-pressure systems have brought some welcome
rain for mainly northern and coastal regions. The higher rainfall totals
recorded have generally been in northern Queensland, which is expected at
this time of year given that it is the 'wet season'. While some rain has
fallen inland, it has been rather patchy but will be useful in promoting
pasture growth and to improve the current sorghum crop outlook. The monthly
value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as of the end of January was
plus 1.2. Considering the SOI was minus 10.0 at the end of December this
has been somewhat of a rise. It is also the first time since May of last
year that monthly values of the SOI have reached positive values. For there
to be an overall widespread improvement in conditions right across the
State, it would help if the SOI went into positive values for a couple of
months at least.
Based on the SOI value at the end of January, chances for average to above
average rain over the next three months from February to April across most
of Queensland are generally between 30 to 50%. The main exception is for a
belt running from the north west into the central west of the State where
the probability of getting average to above-average rainfall for this time
of year is slightly higher at 50 to 60%.
STATE OVERVIEW:
A low-pressure system moved down Queensland's coastline late in the month
and delivered some significant falls of rain across the north region and in
coastal areas. This has prompted new pasture growth and decreased the need
for supplementation feeding of livestock. However, there has been very
little follow up rain in parts of west region and pastures have been burned
by extreme heat. Generally the condition of livestock across the State is
good and prices remain high. Summer crops are progressing well in most
areas but need follow-up rain. Good autumn rain may provide an opportunity
for double cropping in parts of the central region. There are currently 46
shires and 8 part shires declared under State drought processes which
represents 50% of the land area of the State. There are also an additional
139 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 23 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: The majority of the north received above average rainfall for
January with the exception of a strip running from Cape Melville south-west
to Croydon where below average falls were recorded. For those that did
receive the rain it has been an excellent start to the wet season. All
rivers and streams have had a good flow and most on farm water storages are
full. In the cropping districts all crops are generally growing well and
ideal conditions are resulting in high yields. Pastures in the extensive
grazing areas seem to be responding well to the rain and follow up rain
should ensure good seasonal production for the year. Drought
supplementation of livestock has ceased as livestock utilize new pasture
growth. Stock sales have commenced across the region and cattle quality
and prices remain good.
West Region: After receiving good rainfall around mid to late December 2004
and the first week of January 2005, pastures that had benefited from one of
the best starts in three years have been burnt severely. Rains that brought
promise of a great start to the new season have now stopped and parts of
the west region have now started to slip in condition.
Central Region: There was some very useful falls of rain in the Central
region throughout January which ranged from 50 mm up to 600mm. Nearly all
the region benefited, although there was not enough to say that the "wet"
had arrived. Stock are generally in good to excellent condition with a few
poorer ones scattered around. Along with the good rain there has also been
some extremely hot conditions during the month. There are still a few
places though where the pasture remains dry, but there is also plenty of
green. Given this, more general rain is still needed to overall improve the
conditions for rest of the year. Whilst there are few problems with water
at the moment, most of the rain that has been received was "grass" rain, so
more is needed to fully replenish surface water.
South-East Region: While widespread storm rain has been received throughout
the region during the month it has been patchy with falls varying greatly
within districts. Little to no run off has resulted from the storm rain,
although farm water supplies are reasonable. Between storm events
temperatures have been extremely high which has caused pastures and crops
to suffer.
South Region: Rainfall was well below average across the region over
January. The worst affected areas were around the eastern and western
extremities. If average rainfall over the remaining summer period is
received, then this should generate sufficient feed to maintain stock over
the winter period.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: The north region is in good shape at this time of the season
with good supplies of fodder and water. However, as the hot weather and
wind can dry out the pasture extremely quickly, follow up rains will be
required to continue the good start. Generally across the region livestock
condition should improve in line with recent rains as well as pasture
quality and quantity. Surface water in most areas has been replenished
after recent rain and bore supply seems adequate for this time of year. In
the Mareeba district graziers have reported good grass rain. Stock
condition is generally forward store with most stock showing normal wet
season condition. Innisfail is showing green feed throughout the district,
as is Bowen with pastures ranging from short to good.
West Region: Conditions across the north west districts are extremely
patchy with much of the pasture response being burnt off by high
temperatures. Generally, the southern parts of the eastern shires have not
received any beneficial rainfall. To the south of the Cloncurry and Mt Isa
districts pasture responses are slightly better but mostly comprise of soft
herbages and weeds. Responses in Mitchell Grass are minimal, with many
areas remaining black dead stubble. Around the central west district, those
areas east of Longreach, Blackall and Tambo have seen a promising start to
the season dashed as follow up rains have not been received. Pastures have
burnt off significantly and between Barcaldine and Longreach, the downs
country remains black stubble with little to no response. Winton and Boulia
districts are very patchy, with many areas only having light responses from
early January rains. Some properties have been fortunate enough through
storm activity to receive some relief rain. These storms generally tended
to be around the Muttaburra area, and they produced another new run in the
Thomson River. The eastern Blackall and Barcaldine area is generally in
much better condition. Rainfall to the south west of the region has either
stopped or simply did not occur. Buffel pastures have been severely burned
by the excessive temperatures to a level where they can be crunched to
dust. The Tambo/Augathella areas have been inundated by migratory locusts,
which have added an extra pressure on pastures. Stock remain in good
condition across the whole of the west region, although the low stock
numbers are the greatest influence on condition rather than pasture
quantity and quality.
Central Region: Stock from the Jericho district that are passing through
the Emerald Peak Downs Saleyards are currently in good condition. The
pasture quality is holding quite well and paddocks are showing the results
of the beneficial rains that have been received around the district. There
is however the odd paddock that has not responded quite as well. More good
rain over the next couple of months will put these pastures in a good
position leading up to winter. Stock in the Peak Downs and Emerald district
are also in good condition with pasture quality looking very good. Late
rain received in 2004 has enabled pastures to establish while the more
recent rain has produced a good body of feed across most of the Mackay,
Sarina, Broadsound and Mirani districts. All dams on the coastal fringe are
now full. Most producers over the Range have yet to receive good run-off
rain to fill dams and creeks. Many areas throughout Fitzroy, Livingstone,
Rockhampton and Duaringa shires have received an excellent break to the
season, and will be hoping for further follow up rain to ensure a long wet
season and regeneration of pastures.
South-East Region: Generally stock are in fair to good condition throughout
the region given the good levels of feed available. There are some reports
of agistment being sought although this is a normal management practice
throughout the year and not reliant upon seasonal conditions. Minor drought
feeding is reported throughout the region. Pasture quality and quantity is
generally adequate at present and recent showers received have assisted
growth. Given this however, the rainfall has generally been patchy while
the region has been experiencing high temperatures, which has kept pasture
growth in check. Follow up soaking rain and reasonable growing conditions
are needed over the coming months to ensure adequate feed supplies through
winter.
South Region: The region appears to be at a stage where average or better
rainfall is required over the remaining summer period to generate
sufficient feed to maintain stock over the winter period. Good pasture
response to date has been around the Border Rivers where good summer rain
was received. Stock condition has improved due to recent widespread rains
that promoted good pasture growth. Generally animals are in average or
better (2 to 4) body condition while prices remained buoyant. There has
been little runoff rain to lift dam capacity levels.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Some good steady soaking rains were received on the
Tablelands over the December to January period. Early rain tended to be
scattered and late in some areas which led to later than preferred planting
of peanut crops. Some growers used irrigation to plant their crops and
maximise on summer heat units for growth rather than wait for the rain.
Planting has now generally finished and all crops are growing well. The
mango harvest continues on the Tablelands with late season varieties
currently being picked. High production levels have seen an over supply in
the market which has caused prices to fall. In the Bowen district falls of
over 300mm have seen good flows in all water courses and on farm water
storages are full. The effect of the recent rainfall on the aquifer is
unknown at this stage. The cropping season is due to commence in the next
few weeks. The cane crop continues to grow well with good rain in all
growing areas.
Central Region: The intense and patchy nature of the storm rain received on
the Central Highlands this month means that crops, mostly sorghum, are
being planted on fairly marginal soil moisture profiles. The spring planted
sorghum crops are now mostly harvested, with yields commonly in the 2.0 -
3.5 t/ha range. Rain during the month has seen further plantings of sorghum
and mungbeans. It is likely that the winter crop area this year will be
lower than normal due to the larger than normal area of summer crop
planted. However, further good rain in autumn will mean the opportunity to
double crop into wheat or chickpeas for growers who planted large areas of
spring crop. Most areas of the Dawson/Callide received some rainfall for
the month although it was patchy, resulting in variable soil moisture
profiles across paddocks. The rain has been a bonus for those sorghum and
mungbean crops planted in December which are now progressing well. Most
cane production areas received upwards of 350mm during the late January
rainfall event, filling soil profiles under existing crops.
South-East Region: January rains have been favourable across the region
with many areas recording significant falls especially along the coast and
Murgon to Gayndah. There has been extensive sowings of peanuts, sorghum and
corn along with a reasonable interest in navy beans and soybeans. Peanut
cropping in the Lockyer/Toogoolawah area has been limited due to the lack
of irrigation water. Regionally, the majority of the dryland grain and
forage crops will require significant follow-up rain over the next 2 weeks
to ensure moderately good to above average outcomes. Early sorghum crops
are well advanced and should perform well. With the peak harvest and
planting period for pineapple growers under way, the hot weather and rain
have brought forward ripening of blocks that had previously been programmed
for harvest in January/February. Adequate rainfall during January has
assisted in the continued promotion of nut development/filling in macadamia
orchards. The existing crop on the trees is due for harvest between April
to August. Custard apple growers are reporting good fruit set on hand
pollinated trees. Lychee harvesting of the main Kwai May Pink variety is
well underway and crops are generally good, although rainfall periods may
have led to increase fruit splitting on some farms.
South Region: There has been good rainfall in the past month around the
Border Rivers district with the south-east area finally receiving some good
falls. There have been no heat waves to date and crops are progressing
well. There is only a small sorghum area currently planted but these crops
are looking very good. On the eastern Darling Downs conditions are
responding well to the good December rainfalls that followed on from the
November falls. It is expected that an increase in mungbean and sunflower
plantings is likely if further planting rains are received. Early planted
sorghum crop is looking very good and cotton is displaying a range of
maturity with most in the late squaring and flowering stage. In the western
part of the Darling Downs storm rains have continued their patchy pattern
and there is yet to be a decent flow in the Condamine River. Farm dam
capacity is variable, although some runoff rain has replenished many dams.
On the Granite Belt, follow-up rain has been beneficial for orchardists and
vegetable plantings, with increased soil moisture reducing the need for
irrigation. Early variety peaches and nectarines were affected by late
season frosts, although later variety peach and nectarines are presenting a
good crop. Conditions have been particularly favorable for early season
growth of grapes.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 631mm (639) Cairns A/P 552mm (397), Malanda
n/a (267), Ingham 461mm (398), Innisfail 522mm (n/a), Townsville 218mm
(244), Tully 521mm (n/a), Bowen 340mm (n/a), Charters Towers 365mm (n/a),
Georgetown 275mm (227) and Normanton A/P 236mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P
538mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (43mm), Boulia 89mm (56), Windorah 4mm
(40), Cloncurry 227mm (122), Mt Isa 118mm (96), Longreach 62mm (67),
Muttaburra 68mm (91), Winton 71mm (78) and Charleville 20mm (70).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 50mm (102), Clermont 126mm (102), Springsure
58mm (101), Mackay 411mm (268), Yaamba 102mm (120), Biloela A/P 118mm (92),
Mt Larcom 224mm (138), Gladstone 206mm (150), and Theodore 60mm (100),
Yeppoon 163mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 46mm (101), Gayndah AP 54mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 55mm (105), Esk 126mm (132), Kilkivan 127mm (142), Kingaroy 63mm
(n/a), Nanango 41mm (110), Proston 78mm (95), and Beaudesert 46mm (123).
On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 184mm (202), Maryborough 80mm
(164), Nambour 155mm (276) and Tewantin 150mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 29mm (94), Dalby 12mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 20mm (n/a),
Inglewood 15mm (82), Oakey 65mm (83), Pittsworth 83mm (85), Stanthorpe 34mm
(105), Toowoomba A/P 92mm (n/a), Warwick 68mm (n/a), Roma 4mm (n/a), Miles
23mm (n/a), St George A/P 31mm (n/a) and
Taroom 53mm (94).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: For the majority of the north region water supplies appear to
be very good.
West Region: Generally storages are adequate, however far western
properties are experiencing water shortages.
Central Region: Water levels remain low throughout the majority of the
district although the Callide Valley has experienced some bore rises. Water
storage levels in Peter Faust, Eungella, Teemburra and Kinchant Dams have
all increased to levels of 20-30%.
South East Region: Water supplies remain average to low across most of the
region. Underground water is sufficient at present although further rain in
necessary to replenish levels.
South Region: Generally across the region there has been insufficient
runoff rain to lift dam capacity levels.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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