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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained relatively stable from the end of June (plus 0.5) to the end of July (plus 1.6) putting the SOI in a 'Near Zero' phase. Based on this phase and historical rainfall records for August to October most of Queensland has a 40 to 50% chance of getting above median rainfall. The exception to this is the strip running from the central Queensland coast to the peninsular where there is a lower 20 to 40% chance of getting above median rainfall.

It is worth noting that Queensland is in its 'dry season' with August and September having the lowest median monthly rainfall for most locations in Queensland. Rainfall for the three month period May to July was average to above average for most of Queensland. The exception to this was in parts of northern Queensland where below average rainfall was recorded.

Currently the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has low amplitude and is somewhat hard to discern. This is due to strong monsoon activity over India, SE Asia and convection over the South China Sea. The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO to be a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events (but not amounts) across much of Queensland.

STATE OVERVIEW:

There has been very little rainfall recorded across the State this month. Generally winter conditions have been mild and this has benefited pastures and stock. Cattle are generally in average to good condition for this time of year and prices have remained firm. The June rainfall has seen a significant area of winter crop planted. There are currently 61 shires and 7 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 60.6% of the land area of the State. There are also 104 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 16 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: Some unseasonable large falls of winter rain this month have kept night time temperatures down and soil moisture levels high. Wet weather has caused some significant delays to the cane crush and growers and mills are hoping for a dry finish to the crushing season to avoid the need to leave stand over cane in the field. The cattle market remains buoyant and the mild winter conditions have been favourable for pastures and stock.

West Region: Little rainfall was recorded across the West Region during the month. This has been reflected in a varied pasture response across the central and southern shires. This response depended on previous seasonal conditions, temperatures, soil, pasture types and grazing pressures. To generalise, a line south of Hughenden, McKinlay and Boulia has received a positive pasture response to the beneficial June rainfall. The majority of livestock are in average condition and should improve further over the coming months as pastures respond to recent rain.

Central Region: Most parts of Central Region recorded well below median rainfall for July with the exception of northern coastal parts and around Rolleston and Clermont. Conditions have been best in the Mackay district, where the July rainfall followed useful falls in April and May. There has been some disruption to the cane harvest although existing cane crops have benefited and the rain should facilitate easier planting operations now and in the coming months. The wheat outlook is generally looking positive. The situation for beef producers in most parts of the region has improved in areas where significant rains fell.

South-East Region: There has been little follow up rain in July to build on falls received during the previous month. The green pick that had resulted from the June rains has either fallen away or is only just holding on. This variation is most likely due to the differing quality of country, stocking rates and the patchy nature of the rainfall received. Further rain leading into spring is required to build on the wetter than normal winter and assist the region to return to better condition. Rainfall received has created some buoyancy in the cattle market and prices have remained firm.

South Region: Overall stock are in good condition for this time of the year. There are a few exceptions around the Inglewood and Waggamba shires where condition is falling. The region has seen some pasture response resulting from rains received in June however herbage appears to be more dominant than grasses.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: The region experienced some useful rain this month with the more dry areas of Bowen and Charters Towers receiving very useful soaking falls averaging around 50mm. This is in complete reverse to the trend of the previous winter conditions and combined with extremely mild temperatures there should be some pasture growth and slight rejuvenation in parts of the region. Short term relief from some supplementary feeding will be experienced over the coming weeks although follow up rain will be needed within the next 4 to 6 weeks to be of real benefit. Generally across the region livestock breeder condition has continued to slip marginally. Non breeders are stable at present but will require additional protein if they are to maintain weight gain and condition. Pasture quality and quantity in some areas has responded to rainfall but this will only be short term relief. Surface water in some of the Gulf and Peninsular areas is depleted but the region in general seems to be adequate at this point in time and bore supply appears adequate for this time of year.

West Region: Little rainfall was recorded across the West Region during the month. The majority of livestock are in average condition and should improve further over the coming months as pastures respond to recent rain. The country around Cloncurry and Mt Isa is very patchy with some small belts of country described as being well grassed and looking good for this time of the year. The lack of follow up rainfall has resulted in pastures in the southern areas burning and haying off prematurely. This season, Flinders Grass, weed and herbages have dominated pastures in most areas. The Desert Uplands region to the east of Hughenden has a reasonable body of feed and has responded well to good rain during May, June and July. The majority of the Central West has received little rainfall during July and the main pasture response to the June rains has been herbage. With lower than normal livestock numbers the herbage growth has substituted for supplementary feeding and existing stock are expected to make good production gains. Good follow-up rainfall was received across the majority of the South West with the exception of the western side of Paroo shire and the Bulloo shire. Some areas around Augathella and Morven that fared better earlier in the summer and received excellent falls have seen pastures respond well. June rains over the Eastern Paroo, Murweh and Quilpie shires have complemented the May rain, greening up the mulga and growing small amounts of herbage. Generally, stock numbers in the South-West are very low and the majority of livestock are in store condition though gaining in condition throughout July.

Central Region: Pastures have responded well to rainfall received during the previous month. Along with relatively mild conditions this feed has held up well as the region has only received a few frosts during the month. Most pastures still have a green tinge along with a fair body of feed. Only those areas that were bare before the June rain are not faring as well. This response has not seen a large improvement in bulk but has allowed cattle to maintain condition and give a reprieve from supplementation. There are reports that some areas around Marlborough are low on pasture reserves as are other areas that missed out on rain. Around the Mackay district there are still isolated patches over the range that have missed out on any effective rainfall and have very little feed left. Stock are generally in average to good condition for this time of the year which is a reflection of good management practices in conjunction with supplementary feeding programs. Stock numbers are generally below normal carrying capacity. Breeders are generally in good condition for calving which should start in the next few months. Generally the country remains in good condition where stock numbers have been reduced.

South-East Region: Breeders with calves at foot are reported to be in lighter condition due to the poorer start to winter although they are now starting to pick up following the recent rainfall that has promoted green pick. Breeders without calves are reported to be in reasonable condition. Dry cattle are in good condition with some store cattle being presented for sale in very good condition. Dairy cattle are generally struggling to maintain both production and condition. Seasonal supplementary feeding is occurring as part of overall management practices with some areas reporting upwards of 35% of producers drought feeding. Pastures have responded well along with herbage growth prevalent amongst a good body of dry feed in most areas. Some areas report low levels of dry feed remaining and that the green pick has all but gone. These areas seem to be the lighter country, where no follow up rain has been received or where stock numbers are considered to be high.

South Region: In general, there has been a major rainfall deficiency since the start of the year and as a consequence the quality and quantity of summer pasture deteriorated over these months. There was good rain during May and June which in addition to the mild conditions promoted a good body of winter herbage in some areas. Stock numbers are down as a consequence of dry times. Producers reduced stock to meet declining pasture conditions. Additionally, the high cattle prices limited the capacity to buy stock. Animals are generally in average to below body condition. The May/June rain generated some forage crop growth over the more central and western parts of the region.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Tablelands harvesting of legume seed crops continues. Peanuts continue to be harvested with reasonable yields reported. Potato crops are being planted with some reduction on last year's area due to low market prices. Early planted potato crops are being harvested. The maize harvest is underway with average yields. Continued warm, wet and sunny conditions in the Innisfail district have delivered high levels of banana production with excellent fruit quality but the increased production level has seen low returns to growers. In the Bowen district the cropping of tomatoes, capsicum, beans and corn continues with winter rain assisting growers operating on 75% water allocation. Weather has caused some harvest delays but they have been minimal. The cane crush continues across the North region but rain delays are impacting on all districts. In the Herbert district wet weather has been delaying harvest of one of the best crops in recent times. About a quarter of the crop (1.26 M/tonnes) has been crushed and the district average CCS is currently 12.35. Crop is currently cutting above estimate but if the wet conditions continue there may be standover cane next season. Rain delays in the Burdekin have resulted in only 1.9M/tonnes of an estimated 8.3M/tonne cropped being crushed which is setting the district up for a late finish in December. District average CCS was 13.44 at the end of July. Any further rain delays will reduce CCS.

Central Region: Based on the above average rainfall received through May and June, areas around the Central Highlands, in particular to the south of Emerald, are looking to grow excellent winter crops. Crops around the Kilcummin district need follow up rain as they were planted on less than full soil moisture profiles. The estimates of winter cropping areas planted with chickpeas have increased and some of this has been double cropped into sorghum stubble. The earlier planted chickpea crops have now started flowering and pod setting. Winter cereal crops planted in the western parts of the Dawson/Callide are looking good, although many growers are still cautious about the potential for late frosts. Rain received in the last week in June saw planting commence in the Callide Valley which generally has received much less rain over the past few months than the Dawson Valley. By the second week in July, most crops had been planted and these will benefit from further rain in the next few weeks to promote secondary root development and improve yield potential. Most of the winter crop will be wheat in this area, however, there have been areas of barley and small areas of chickpeas planted. The cane harvest in the Mackay area is well under way and harvest has had minor interruptions due to weather. Winter legume fallow trial crops (chickpeas) in this areas are looking good and plant cane crops following a legume fallow are generally performing exceptionally well.

South-East Region: Warm conditions and minor follow up rain have promoted good grass and cereal crop growth in the region. Soil moisture levels are currently sufficient and preparations for spring and summer crop sowing are progressing as expected. Avocado harvesting continues and the drier conditions should help reduce disease development in the crop remaining on the trees. Only small volumes of both cannery and fresh pineapple fruit are being harvested. The rainfall during late June interrupted macadamia harvesting. Wet weather in late June reduced strawberry production.

South Region: Around the Border Rivers district a three week dry spell has given crops a chance to throw off the effects of waterlogging although some yield decreases may be expected in some areas. The Darling Downs has had a significant area of winter crop planted, mostly wheat and barley, however the crop area is still below what would be deemed as average. Some growers have opted to carry country over to a spring planting. In the Maranoa/Warrego district conditions are excellent for crop growth around St George. Multiple planting opportunities have ensured a large planting of winter crops on the Western Downs. Waterlogging has decreased yield potential in some areas.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 504mm (132) Cairns A/P 65mm (26), Malanda 72mm (44), Ingham 78mm (35), Innisfail 285mm (n/a), Townsville 25mm (11), Tully Sugar Mill 362mm (123), Bowen 22mm (n/a), Charters Towers 41mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.4mm (5) and Normanton A/P 0.2mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 16mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (14), Boulia 0.0mm (11), Windorah 3mm (17), Cloncurry 0.0mm (n/a), Mt Isa 0.0mm (9), Longreach 16mm (21), Muttaburra n/a (13), Winton 8mm (17) and Charleville 0.0mm (24).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 2mm (25), Clermont 12mm (23), Springsure 0.7mm (30), Mackay 62mm (48), Yaamba 2mm (34), Biloela A/P 0.0mm (31), Mt Larcom 0.2mm (38), Gladstone 0.8mm (43), and Theodore n/a (37), Yeppoon 13mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 3mm (38), Gayndah AP 4mm (49), Mundubbera 4mm (38), Esk 2mm (51), Kilkivan 2mm (49), Kingaroy 3mm (n/a), Nanango 10mm (49), Proston 1mm (41), and Beaudesert 14mm (49). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 13mm (49), Maryborough 30mm (59), Nambour 20mm (98) and Tewantin 71mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 7 (43), Dalby 0.8mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 6mm (n/a), Inglewood 10mm (40), Oakey 1mm (38), Pittsworth 11 (47), Stanthorpe 12mm (52), Toowoomba 1mm (n/a), Warwick 6mm (n/a), Roma 1mm (n/a), Miles 0.8mm (n/a), St George A/P 2mm (n/a) and Taroom 0.3mm (35).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water in some of the Gulf and Peninsular areas are depleted although the region in general appears adequate. Bore supplies are holding.

West Region: Water supplies are variable throughout the region. The June rain replenished ground water supplies across the majority of the central west. Some properties in the far south-west and North-west are experiencing water shortages.

Central Region: Below average rainfall was recorded across the majority of the region. Some areas did record above average falls although generally storages continue to recede.

South East Region: There are no major stock water concerns reported with most storages holding well.

South Region: There are concerns over wide spread areas of the region. Although good rain fell in June it did not produce run off. Stock water for many producers is still in short supply.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.