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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose from minus 11.7 for May to plus 0.5 for June placing the SOI in a 'Rapidly Rising' phase. With the rise in value of the SOI most of the State has a greater than 50 to 60% chance of getting median rainfall for July through to the end of September. Although for there to be an overall improvement in conditions across the State, the SOI needs to stay in positive values at least for a couple of months. The last time the SOI was in a "Consistently Positive" phase was for one month in March 2004 and prior to that in March 2001. The recent upward trend of the SOI will be monitored over coming weeks to see if it is maintained or just a short-term fluctuation.

Above average rain was recorded across the southern half of Queensland for June providing a welcome respite from persistent dry conditions. The recent rainfall pattern appears to have been associated with the fairly unusual far-southern displacement of the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure over recent months. The latitude of this high pressure belt moves north and south on a roughly 11 year cycle. There is some evidence that suggests that it is correlated with solar activity which currently is at a minimum.

Currently the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has low amplitude and is somewhat hard to discern. This is due to strong monsoon activity over India, SE Asia and convection over the South China Sea. The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO to be a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events (but not amounts) across much of Queensland.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Overall the State has fared well with rain this month. Generally the situation for most producers has improved with cattle holding condition and water supplies adequate. There are some areas where pastures have declined although there are many areas reporting green pick coming through. The majority of the cropping regions have received enough rain to plant a winter crop and those crops that were planted early should benefit from good yields. Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries declared the drought status of Tara as at 1 June 2005, Dalby Town and Wambo (part) as at 5 June 2005, Kingaroy, Nanango and Rosalie (part) as at 15 June 2005 and Perry as at 20 June 2005. There are currently 61 shires and 7 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 60.6% of the land area of the State. There are also 103 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 17 shires.

As at 12 June 2005, significant rainfall resulted in flooding across the South West Queensland Districts. In addition to this, an East Coast Low caused extensive rainfall over South East Queensland, with extremely heavy rain impacting the Gold Coast area. These events triggered widespread flooding resulting in major road closures and inundation of properties. The Minister for Emergency Services activated the Commonwealth/State Natural Disaster Relief Arrangements (NDRA).

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: The winter pattern continued this month and overall conditions have been generally mild. The cropping season in the Bowen district is in full swing and high levels of production have kept prices down. A similar situation is occurring in the banana growing areas of the wet tropics where mild conditions have seen increased production. The cane crush is progressing well with reasonable yields. While the cattle market remains buoyant the majority of producers are deciding to sell stock rather than feed through the dry.

West Region: Heavy rainfalls were recorded across the central and southern shires of the West Region. A varied pasture response has been reported depending upon the previous seasonal conditions, temperatures, soil, pasture types and grazing pressures. To generalise, a line south of Hughenden, McKinlay and Boulia received beneficial rainfall while areas to the north of this line generally received little beneficial rain. The majority of the Bulloo and the eastern part of the Paroo shire missed out again.

Central Region: Many parts of Central Region recorded excellent June rainfall which followed useful falls in April and May. Conditions have been better in the western and southern parts. The Southern and Central Highlands continue to fare well although falls were lighter through the grain growing areas of the northern Emerald district. The situation for beef producers in most parts has improved. Most producers have now reduced stock numbers and water supplies have improved on tributaries. Exceptions are along the coastal regions of the Mackay district and in the south-eastern parts of Rockhampton.

South-East Region: Recent rains have benefited many properties in the South East region. Livestock appear to be holding well although condition may fall away where some cattle chase green pick that has resulted from recent rain or in the drier areas around Boonah, Mt Perry and sections of the South Burnett. Pastures vary across the region. Early winter plantings are expected to yield a harvestable crop while those crops planted on the recent rain will require follow up rain. Water appears adequate.

South Region: There has been some excellent rainfall during this month. This should promote winter herbage and improve the prospects of established crops. Water storage levels have improved throughout the region with falls from 70 - 150mm, although due to the extended drought prior to the recent rain the bulk of the region still remains drought declared. Livestock are generally in average condition.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: The region has received limited rainfall again this month continuing on from the previous two months. Beef producers continue to review and reduce stock numbers in line with seasonal conditions. In the north dry conditions continue with the exception being around the coastal fringe. Generally across the region breeder condition has started to slip with the vast majority requiring additional protein supplementation to ensure maintenance of calves at foot. Non breeders are stable at present but will require additional protein if they are to maintain weight gain and condition. Pasture quality and quantity has declined due to inadequate rainfall being received after January. Surface water in some of the Gulf and Peninsular areas has receded although the region in general seems to be adequate. Bore supplies are holding for this time of the year.

West Region: The country around Cloncurry and Mt Isa is very patchy with only a few areas of country well grassed and in reasonable condition for this time of year. Pastures in the southern areas have burnt and hayed off prematurely while the Desert Uplands region to the east of Hughenden has a reasonable body of feed. Herbage has been the main response from the recent rains and while stocking numbers are low throughout the Central West, this herbage growth should substitute the need for supplementary feeding. The area south of Longreach towards Stonehenge and Isisford / Yaraka has recorded valuable rainfall in June. Good rain was also received across the majority of the South West with the exception being the western side of Paroo shire and the Bulloo shire. Pastures have responded well and should continue to grow through to spring. June rains over the Eastern Paroo, Murweh and Quilpie shires have complemented the May rain, greening up the mulga and growing small amounts of herbage. Stock numbers in general throughout the South-West are very low. Livestock are generally in store or losing condition although they should improve quickly as the quality of pastures increases over the coming months.

Central Region: The district has received some good rain promoting valuable pasture growth. Frosts have been minimal and where oats have been planted the response has been good. Warm temperatures following the rain have allowed most pastures to green. The Coastal Plains currently have a reasonable body of feed while the Hinterland has seen no improvement to western pastures with many properties starting to supplementary feed their stock. Overall livestock appear to be in good condition. Stock around the coastal regions are faring well and should hold through the winter. Cattle in the hinterland are also holding well however without rain pastures may not hold and condition could fall. Calves not weaned at this time of the year will continue to reduce the body condition of breeders thus prompting some producers to commence supplementary feeding programs. There have been minimal stock movements due to the rain. Paddock feed is generally in short supply for dairy cattle and supplementary feeding is ongoing. Warmer temperatures following the rain have facilitated some fresh growth but have also caused damage to old dry pasture. There do not appear to be many water problems at this stage.

South-East Region: Generally, dry stock have held condition, however, in the drier areas of the region such as Boonah, Mt Perry and sections of the South Burnett breeders and other classes of livestock continue to fall back in condition. Further loss in body condition, overall, is expected as livestock traditionally chase the green pick resulting from the recent rains. Producers continue to lighten off to avoid the high cost of drought feeding. There has been some stock movement to agistment and restocking however as conditions continue to dry off these practices are slowing. Supplementary feeding varies throughout the region. Beef producers in the more fortunate areas are feeding very little whilst those in the drier sectors continue to feed, particularly dairy producers to maintain production. Pastures continue to be variable across the region. Fortunately, winter conditions have been mild with only light frosts helping to preserve fodder quality. Substantial rainfall during the month will see the revival of existing pastures and the emergence of winter forage species. Dairy farmers have the prospects of planting rye grasses and other species for production and maintaining dry and replacement stock.

South Region: Stocking rates are low on most properties as the dry weather continues and pastures decline. While many producers have taken advantage of the strong cattle prices and sold, these prices have also reduced the capacity of some producers whose properties are in better condition to purchase animals for restocking. The majority of animals in the south region are in average to below body condition. The recent rain should generate forage crop growth over a wide area and alleviate some pressure on graziers. Stock water for many producers is still in short supply while the quality and quantity of summer pasture has deteriorated over the last few months. However due to the mild conditions some species such as Buffel have benefited.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Tablelands harvesting of legume seed crops has commenced. Peanuts continue to be harvested with reasonable yields reported. Potato crops are being planted with some reduction on last year's area due to low markets prices. Some of the earlier planted potato crops are now being harvested. Continued warm, wet and sunny conditions in the Innisfail district have delivered high levels of banana production with excellent fruit quality. In the Bowen district the cropping of tomatoes, capsicum, beans and corn continues with growers operating on a 75% water allocation. The crush is well underway across the north region with minimal delays. On the Tablelands the crop is cutting to estimate and CCS is up compared to last season. In the Herbert district showery and damp conditions are delaying planting but the crush is progressing well.

Central Region: June has been a very wet month in the Dawson and Callide valleys, with the entire district receiving between 60mm to 70mm. This has been one of the best June rainfall recordings for many years. The wheat and barley crops planted in May are progressing very well following the above average rainfall, however there are some crops suffering from waterlogging and a few have been lost to inundation in low lying areas. Yield potential for most crops is expected to be above average although it will still be a few months before these crops are harvested. Good winter rainfall across most districts in the Central Highlands has raised hopes of an average to above average winter crop harvest for many growers. Rainfall across the region has been quite variable, with those areas surrounding Emerald and the Southern Highlands receiving considerably more rainfall than those areas in the Northern Highlands. For growers who did not plant on earlier rains, the latest June falls have provided an opportunity for a late cereal or chickpea plant. The rain this month has helped build moisture profiles in the irrigated cotton areas. Most of the Emerald area received 75mm or better. Irrigated winter crops should require very little water allocations to see them through to maturity. In the central region cane growing area, the 20004-05 cane harvest began in late June.

South-East Region: Recent rainfall will ensure winter crops planted earlier will now be able to achieve a harvestable crop. Growers planting winter crops following this rain will still require a further fall of rain in late July or August to be able to achieve reasonable yields. It is not anticipated at this stage that there will be a large winter planting. Depending on weather conditions over the coming months most summer crop growers should have sufficient moisture to be able to cultivate their land prior to planting summer crops. Tree plantations should benefit from the recent rainfall, with most farms having full soil profile.

South Region: Excellent rainfall was received across the majority of the South region. Around the Border Rivers area, follow-up rain from the previous months has provided a huge benefit to the current wheat crop. There were some chickpea crops damaged as some crops had water lying on them for 2 to 3 days. Pasture medics are growing well and provided rain now holds off until flowering wheat crop prospects should be good. On the Darling Downs there has been a significant improvement in stored soil water and this has significantly improved winter crop prospects. It has prompted late planting in some winter crop areas. There was no significant runoff into irrigation storages and so many remain relatively empty. While the rain has fallen too late to produce a lot of pasture bulk, there should be some winter herbage growth. Warwick area has recorded over 90mm of rain resulting in sufficient moisture to plant on and improved conditions following the good rain has enhanced prospects for cereal crops and promoted good pasture growth. There was approximately 100mm of rain across the Granite Belt although this had only a minor affect on water storages. Growers with winter crops such as brassicas and celery have benefited.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 221mm (208) Cairns A/P 33mm (50), Malanda n/a (62), Ingham 78mm (43), Innisfail 235mm (n/a), Townsville 34mm (20), Tully Sugar Mill 271mm (176), Bowen 14mm (n/a), Charters Towers 16mm (n/a), Georgetown 3mm (6) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 22mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P 35mm (n/a), Boulia 56mm (7), Windorah 73mm (12), Cloncurry 8mm (8), Mt Isa 20mm (3), Longreach 92mm (13), Muttaburra 70mm (13), Winton 95mm (11) and Charleville 137mm (19).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 134mm (23), Clermont 54mm (24), Springsure 106mm (24), Mackay 49mm (64), Yaamba 45mm (38), Biloela A/P 106mm (31), Mt Larcom 30mm (36), Gladstone 45mm (35), and Theodore 126mm (28), Yeppoon 69mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 60mm (38), Gayndah AP 92mm (n/a), Mundubbera 99mm (31), Esk 78mm (51), Kilkivan 104mm (40), Kingaroy 163mm (n/a), Nanango 134mm (34), Proston 98mm (31), and Beaudesert 122mm (49). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 167mm (54), Maryborough 130mm (64), Nambour 183mm (95) and Tewantin 214mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 68 (32), Dalby 146mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 172mm (n/a), Inglewood 103mm (28), Oakey 106mm (33), Pittsworth 83 (37), Stanthorpe 91mm (38), Toowoomba 92mm (n/a), Warwick 97mm (n/a), Roma 102mm (n/a), Miles 153mm (n/a), St George A/P 88mm (n/a) and Taroom 122mm (29).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Water supplies generally appear to be adequate for the majority of the north region although the western shires are experiencing lower than normal levels for this time of the year.

West Region: While the June rain replenished water supplies across the majority of the Central West, conditions for the remainder of the region still remain variable. There are reports of water cartage occurring.

Central Region: Most centres in have received good rainfall during June with some areas in the Central West recording between two to six times the monthly average. There has however been no significant run off.

South East Region: Major dams in coastal and Burnett-Wide Bay areas have received measurable streamflows to either top up or improve supplies. Areas west of Brisbane and the Brisbane Valley received beneficial grass rain with only minimal runoff.

South Region: Water storage levels have improved throughout the region due to falls ranging between 70mm to 150mm. While there was little run off from the rain there was plenty of good soaking rain.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.