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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

Based on a 'Rapidly Rising' Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phase over February and March, the chance of average to above average rain for April to the end of June across most of Queensland is generally around 50% with a few regions mainly across central Queensland lower at 30 to 40%. As we have stated regularly, for there to be an overall widespread improvement in conditions across the State, it would help if the SOI went into positive values for a couple of months at least. Daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439. The latest rainfall probability maps for Queensland, Australia and the world are at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au The MJO (or 40-day wave) is due in early April and will hopefully trigger some widespread and much needed relief rain. It can presently be found in the Indian Ocean and interestingly, has the strongest signal it has had for a number of months. It is worth noting that this late in the summer rainfall season it would be unusual to see widespread monsoonal activity. According to the Bureau of Meteorology though there is some potential for this MJO to trigger the development of a low-pressure system in the Coral Sea. The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO to be a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events (but not amounts) across much of Queensland. At present there are a number of 'early warning signs' that suggest the development of an El Niņo in 2005 is a possibility. As well as the recent drop in value of the SOI, these include a marked increase in sub-surface sea temperatures, strong westerly wind bursts in the eastern Pacific and a resulting Kelvin Wave, all of which can trigger the changes in ocean and atmospheric patterns needed for an El Niņo event. However, the development of an El Niņo event in 2005 is by no means a certainty. For a start there will most likely need to be more strong westerly wind bursts in the Pacific over the next few months if an El Niņo is likely to develop. Key times to watch out for those will be after the next passage of the MJO. As well El Niņo events usually develop in mid to late autumn so there is still some time for conditions in the Pacific to change. However given the physical evidence our policy remains to recommend a cautious approach when considering the longer-term outlook this year. As part of the DPI&Fs' response to these changes we have initiated an "El Niņo watch" and will regularly monitor any developments in the Pacific and pass on this information on as it becomes relevant.

STATE OVERVIEW:

Rainfall has been well below average across most of the State for the past three months. Much of the pasture response from early patchy summer rain has hayed off but there are some areas mainly in parts of Central Queensland where there has been a good quality and quantity of pasture growth. Water is an issue in many areas. There has generally been large scale destocking across the State. Cropping yields have been down in many areas and some crops have failed. Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries revoked the drought status of that part of Belyando shire being the area south and west of a line beginning at the point where the Peak Downs Highway intersects the boundary of Belyando and Peak Downs Shire and following the Peak Downs Highway from this point, north west to the Clermont roundabout and continuing along the highway to the junction of the Peak Downs Highway where it meets the Gregory Development Road (Charters Towers Road) and north west to the junction of the Gregory Development Road and the Kilcummin Diamond Downs Road and north along the Kilcummin Diamond Downs Road to the point where it meets the Shire boundary, effective 2 March 2005 and Jericho Shire, effective 15 March 2005. The Minister has also drought declared the northern portion of Flinders Shire, effective 18 March 2005. There are currently 45 shires and 8 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 50.8% of the land area of the State. There are also 128 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 21 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: The dry finish to the season continued in the southern, inland and gulf parts of the region this month with well below average rainfall recorded. Tropical Cyclone Ingrid which crossed the coast north of Cooktown early in the month provided some good rainfall totals in the wet tropics and peninsula districts, but provided little relief to the rest of the region. Generally livestock are still in fair condition.

West Region: Conditions across the region remain relatively unchanged this month as any rain received has been isolated and scattered. Overall the western part of the region has received no beneficial rain although the north eastern district is generally fairing a little better. The majority of the "downs country" in the northern shires are still denuded. Stock appear to be in good condition.

Central Region: Most parts of the region recorded below median rainfall for March. Sorghum crops on the Central Highlands are mostly expected to yield well below average and in many instances will fail outright. Prospects for winter crop are bleak at this stage with very marginal stored soil water reserves. The Biloela district remains in a reasonable condition for both grazing and cropping enterprises. Grain growers are generally harvesting average or better sorghum crops and land left available for winter crop generally has sufficient soil water to enable confident planting if good rain falls from now on. Coastal horticulture producers need rain to supply irrigation water for the coming seasonal demands.

South-East Region: Rainfall for the month was well below average. Some storm rain was received but falls were patchy. Some coastal rainfall has been received but this was limited to a very narrow coastal band. Generally the yields and quality of summer cropping have been down and very little moisture remains in the soil profile. There have been reports from the Maryborough area of hailstorms which caused damage to cane crops in some areas.

South Region: Rainfall has been well below average for February and March. There has been no recharge for ground water and nothing of significance in regard to stream flow. The region has experienced below average pasture growth and Total Dry Standing Matter is average to below for this time of year. There have been a few good crops from the sorghum harvest on the Downs. However, many crops planted on lighter soil types or late planted have suffered from the dry conditions and as a result many sorghum and mungbean crops have failed. The dry conditions at the end of the growing season in the St George and Goondiwindi area has resulted in an excellent cotton harvest. Continued destocking has taken place as there have been concerns that there will be insufficient pasture to carry stock over winter in some areas.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Pasture growth on the Northern Peninsula has been reasonable, with adequate pasture growth in lower Cook Shire and western and central Mareeba Shire. Stock condition is generally good. Burke, Carpentaria and Croydon Shires have received patchy rainfall and the pasture response reflects this. Generally most stock are in good condition, only cows with miss weaners from last year are back in store to forward store condition. There have been limited stock movements to date. The majority of stock in the Georgetown district are in good condition. There is a good body of feed in most areas but it has hayed off with the recent hot dry weather. Some areas in the south and east of the Shire and along the Gilbert River are going into the dry season with a lighter than usual body of grass. Pasture response in Charters Towers following the January rainfall has been good but pastures were unable to grow to their full potential due to lack of follow up. Although rainfall was above average for the season, most of this fell in one week during January and all other months have received below average totals. Stock are in reasonable condition for this time of year. In the Townsville district stock are in good condition reflecting the present state of pastures. However lack of rainfall in February and March and hot weather in March have affected pasture condition.

West Region: The country around Cloncurry is generally in reasonable condition. Both spinifex and buffel grass are green and carrying a strong body of bulk. In the Central West area around Boulia, Winton, Longreach and Blackall conditions are still very patchy. Pastures in the areas that have not received any beneficial falls have burnt off. Mitchell grass areas are failing to respond. Herbage, weed and soft grasses have suffered as a result of the severe heat and lack of follow-up rains. The area south of Longreach towards Stonehenge and through to the southwest border and channel country remains very dry. Shires in the south west area continue to receive variable rainfall pattens. Those areas that did receive rainfall have faired well, although the majority of the South-West has had little or no relief. There is very little bulk left in the pastures at present, giving cause for concern in the coming winter period. Around Thargomindah and Quilpie mulga stands are under pressure and trees have started to die. Stock numbers are generally low and trends suggest producers will continue to destock. Dry stock are in store to forward store condition. Breeder cattle are generally in store, but many droughted animals are beginning to appear throughout the region. There are some isolated areas that still have well conditioned animals on hand. Many sheep producers still have to decide whether or not to join remaining ewes in hope for a winter or spring break.

Central Region: In most areas generally stock are in fair to good condition in line with pasture response. Many properties have reduced numbers and there has been some substantial destocking undertaken on properties in the far west of Bauhinia Shire. There have been no reports of drought feeding but many producers have started supplementary feeding programs to maintain stock condition and improve performance. As a result of dry conditions through March, areas that had good pasture response have hayed off quickly.

South-East Region: In the Helidon area most stock are in good condition with cows and calves getting a bit lighter as the dry conditions continue. Many producers are selling off young stock first in the local saleyards. There is no green feed available and pastures are getting less each week. What dry feed was around is quickly being diminished. Stock are in good condition in the Maryborough region but this is expected to change with the onset of winter if there is no useful rain in the very near future. Pasture quality and quantity has decreased during the past couple of months. In Boonah Shire cattle condition is starting to fall and it has been noticeable that more cattle are appearing lighter at sales than what is expected for this time of the year. A lot of pasture body has hayed off completely and there has been very little pasture growth over the past three months.

South Region: Many producers have taken the general strategy of reducing the stocking rates to meet declining pastoral conditions. Stock is generally in average to below body condition. Drought feeding has begun in the western shires, particularly Booringa. There has not been sufficient run off rain to lift dam capacity levels and the availability of stock water is a concern over widespread parts of the region. Pasture growth response is below average and the end of the summer pasture growing season will occur over a matter of weeks. There is concern that there may not be sufficient pasture to carry stock over the winter.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Tablelands growers have been irrigating peanut crops due to the dry finish to the season. Harvest is due to start towards the end of April. Maize crops are growing well but have also required irrigation to avoid yield losses. The potato season has commenced in the Ravenshoe area and ground preparation is underway for planting in the Atherton district. In the Burdekin sugarcane growers have been ploughing out fallow crops and have commenced planting. The hot dry conditions have caused growers to continue to irrigate crops at above normal levels. In the Ingham district the crop is growing well and planting will commence next month.

Central Region: Most of the January planted sorghum in the Dawson/Callide is now being harvested and the February planted crops are now filling grain and should yield well in most cases. There are still some late planted mungbean crops to be harvested and yields are generally expected to be moderate. There is only a small amount of fallow being held over for a winter crop and in many cases 25-50mm will see these areas planted. Due to the large sorghum crop planted, it will take significant rainfall to see paddocks planted to spring sorghum double cropped during the coming season. The Central Highlands sorghum crop continues to suffer and most areas have further downgraded yield expectations. There are significant areas of crop that will fail and will be fed off to cattle. The sunflower crop has not eventuated and is estimated at 10 000ha, down from an anticipated 30 000ha. The cotton crop has been mostly harvested this month and yields are very good, but prices generally hovering under $400. Cane crops are disappointing and many crops have lost enough yield potential that even in the event of an excellent late season rainfall now, prospects would not be significantly improved. The water supply situation for horticulture producers in the district ranges from adequate to dire. Growers with access to flood harvesting from the Fitzroy River have adequate water for current and imminent needs. However, most coastal growers are now in need of water coming into the most critical part of the year when controlled irrigation is relied upon to set up flowering and fruiting phases in most crops, especially mango, custard apple, lychee, longan and pineapple.

South-East Region: Late season rain across the central areas of the South Burnett may have slightly improved quality of peanut and late corn crops. Bundaberg crops have benefited from patchy rain in the first half of March and this has helped peanuts and soybeans where irrigation water was limited. Summer forage crops are generally a failure and some growers are baling sorghum stubble and peanut hay for fodder sales and on farm use. Sowing of oats is limited but probably more widespread in the Burnett than other areas where not even planting rain has occurred. Cotton yields at Byee appear favourable given limited water and relatively hot sunny growing conditions. Winter season crops (brassicas, lettuce, onions) are being sown in the Lockyer and Fassifern Valleys and summer season crops such as tomatoes and capsicums are currently being harvested. In the South East coastal region pineapple growers report that while the amount of fruit harvested is as expected, the size of fruit is smaller than normal as a result of dry conditions and this is leading to reduced tonnages. The harvest of early varieties of macadamia nuts has begun and the custard apple harvest is well under way with high yields and reasonably good prices expected. There have been good yields of early season variety Giro persimmons but low prices have been reported. The harvest season for the main Fuyu variety begins in April.

South Region: Late planted crops on the Darling Downs have been very poor with yields dropping due to the dry finish. Conditions for any likely winter crop are very poor at present with marginal subsoil moisture in many situations. Irrigated cotton crops that had sufficient water to complete the final irrigation are performing well. However there are a number where there was inadequate irrigation available to complete the crop and yields and quality will suffer. Raingrown cotton crops are yielding significantly less than the record yields achieved last season. The water storage capacity is continually reducing to support tree, vine and vegetable crop summer production for 2005.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average) North Region: Babinda received 863mm (816) Cairns A/P 429mm (449), Malanda n/a (286), Ingham 244mm (454), Innisfail 690mm (n/a), Townsville 33mm (176), Tully Sugar Mill 352mm (745), Bowen 10mm (n/a), Charters Towers 7mm (n/a), Georgetown 14mm (140) and Normanton A/P 44mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 40mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (19mm), Boulia 0.2mm (35), Windorah 0.0mm (32), Cloncurry n/a (62), Mt Isa 0.0mm (86), Longreach 0.2mm (65), Muttaburra 12mm (64), Winton 7mm (51) and Charleville 29mm (59).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 5mm (70), Clermont 7mm (75), Springsure 45mm (69), Mackay 67mm (312), Yaamba 9mm (117), Biloela A/P 83mm (83), Mt Larcom 34mm (109), Gladstone 72mm (104), and Theodore 63mm (46), Yeppoon 84mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 29mm (71), Gayndah AP 21mm (n/a), Mundubbera 18mm (56), Esk 32mm (87), Kilkivan 3mm (85), Kingaroy 25mm (n/a), Nanango 26mm (74), Proston 5 (68), and Beaudesert 38mm (100). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 89mm (127), Maryborough 72mm (134), Nambour 30mm (215) and Tewantin 119mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 32mm (73), Dalby 4mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 40mm (n/a), Inglewood 15mm (59), Oakey 11mm (52), Pittsworth 19mm (69), Stanthorpe 33mm (75), Toowoomba A/P 35mm (n/a), Warwick 12mm (n/a), Roma 8mm (n/a), Miles 37mm (n/a), St George A/P 10mm (n/a) and Taroom 26mm (64).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water and bores appear adequate for this time of the year although follow up rain is required. West Region: Water supplies vary throughout the region with some far western properties experiencing shortages. Piped water is still supplying adequate resources to the region. Some dams are drying up in the South West corner putting extra pressure on bores. Water cartage for livestock is taking place.

Central Region: Stream flows in the region continued to reside this month with some reaching stoppage level. Mackay streams and Waterpark Creek remain low. The most significant stream flows were in areas that received isolated storm rains with St Helens Creek and the Boyne/Calliope systems recording 20-30% of median monthly flows. All other systems recorded around 5% or less of the median monthly flow.

South East Region: No significant runoff has occurred and as a result there has been no significant stream flow or aquifer recharge.

South Region: Rainfall has been well below average across the region. There has been no recharge to groundwater supplies during March.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.