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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained relatively stable and as of the 31st May was minus 12.7. Based on the shift in value from minus 11.7 at the end of April, the SOI is now in a 'Consistently Negative' phase. As expected rainfall probabilities have fallen. There is less than a 30 to 40% chance of getting median rainfall for winter across much of the southern parts of the state and into the lower half of the peninsula. For the rest of the state there is generally around a 40 to 50% chance of getting median rainfall for winter. A 'Consistently Negative' SOI phase at the end of May generally increases the chance of a later than normal finish to the severe frost season and may also increase the number of frosts across Queensland. Similar to rainfall probabilities across Queensland, for the rest of Australia there is generally less than a 50% chance of getting above median rainfall for June to August. It is worth noting that this does not mean there will be no rainfall at all for the 3 month period for those areas with low rainfall probabilities, but that rainfall recorded for June through to the end of August in the affected areas will, more likely than not, be below average for this time of year. Currently there is around double the normal level of risk of an El Niņo developing. Therefore SOI movement and Pacific Ocean sea temperature changes during the next four weeks will be crucial. For example, if SOI values remain consistently negative for the rest of this month there will be a further corresponding fall in rainfall probabilities across most of the state, irrespective of El Niņo development.

STATE OVERVIEW:

The State continues to remain dry with most areas experiencing a decline in pastures resulting in supplementary feeding to maintain stock condition. Livestock are generally holding condition which can be attributed to the lower stocking rates on most properties. Cropping has been poor across most of Queensland with only the north region showing some promise of above average returns. There has been little relief rain across Queensland except along the coastal fringes. Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committees, the Minister for Primary Industries and Fisheries declared the drought status of Chinchilla (part), Warroo, Roma Town, Bungil, Bendemere and Ipswich as at 1 May 2005, the remainder of Taroom not already covered by a drought status as at 6 May 2005, Boulia as at 24 May 2005 and Millmerran as at 25 May 2005. There are currently 55 shires and 8 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 59.4% of the land area of the State. There are also 107 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 17 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: The north region has moved into the normal dry season pattern with the hot conditions easing and the nights cooling down. There has been little rainfall this month except along the wet tropical coast where average monthly totals recorded. Condition of livestock is falling in line with pasture decline and this is evident in the quality of the cattle being presented through the saleyards. There are still large numbers of stock moving about which is indicative of producers continuing to lighten stock numbers. Cropping conditions remain stable and most crops are generally growing well. The cane harvest commenced on the Tablelands this month and other mills will come on line during the next few weeks. Overall yields are expected to be average to above average. West Region: Rainfall recorded across the region this month was isolated to the Eastern fringes and the South-East shires. A varied pasture response has been reported relevant to the condition of the country prior to the rainfall event. The situation for the majority of the South-West is not favourable. The country continues to deteriorate rapidly and this is reflected in stock condition. Central Region: Most parts of the Central Region recorded median rainfall or better for May. Conditions have been best in the Mackay district, where the May rainfall followed useful falls in April. Existing cane crops have benefited and the rain should also facilitate easier planting operations in the coming months. Pressure on strained irrigation capacity has eased for the moment. The situation for beef producers in most parts is unchanged, as rainfall of this amount and at this time of year provides little benefit to pastures. The majority of producers are reducing stock numbers and supplementary feeding early as part of their drought management strategies. Exceptions are in coastal parts of the Mackay district and in the south-eastern parts of the Rockhampton district. Coastal horticultural producers who rely upon rainfall or surface and underground irrigation water are likely to have another season of reduced production.

South-East Region: The month of May continues to be dry although some rainfall was received but these falls were light and patchy. Coastal areas have been receiving good levels of rainfall and horticultural production in this area has seen little decline. Most cropping enterprises failed to produce a summer crop. Pasture reserves are dwindling as is the quality of any remaining pasture. Intensive livestock enterprises are supplementary feeding productive stock in an attempt to retain a reasonable level of production.

South Region: Conditions remain dry throughout the south region however, parts of the Booringa, Bungil, Warroo and Balonne shires received up to 100mm of rain in early May. This rain may promote winter herbage and encourage wheat planting among some producers in these areas. Some producers have needed to reduce stocking rates and other producers may need to consider drought feeding. Drought feeding is not a viable option for most producers because of low availability and high cost. There has been no recharge for ground water storages and no significant change to stream flows, other than areas within the Maranoa. Water storage levels in the Granite Belt remain a concern for future crop production. LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: The region received very little rain again this month and with the exception of the wet tropical coast most areas received below average rainfall. This has continued on from the previous two months and as the winter season approaches, the chances of good rainfall and favourable pasture growing conditions diminish. Beef producers continue to review and reduce their numbers in line with seasonal conditions. Generally across the region livestock breeder condition has started to slip with most requiring additional protein supplementation to ensure maintenance of calves at foot. Non breeders are stable at present but will generally require additional protein if they are to maintain weight gain and condition. Pasture quality and quantity has declined as a result of inadequate rainfall since January and for this time of year is limited. Surface water in most areas has been replenished and bore supply seems adequate for this time of year.

West Region: In the North-West region around Cloncurry and Mt Isa the country remains patchy. There are some small areas that are appearing well grassed and while much of the Spinifex is green the Buffel Grass is beginning to hay off. The lack of any type of follow up rainfall has resulted in pastures in southern areas burning and haying off prematurely. In the McKinlay, Richmond and Flinders shires, producers have destocked heavily over the last three months with the majority of stock now removed. The Desert Uplands region to the east of Hughenden has a reasonable body of feed and has responded well to falls received during May. Conditions in the Central West are patchy and this is linked to the storm rains received during the 2004/2005 summer. Areas that did not receive summer storm rains have seen pastures burnt off significantly. The country between Barcaldine and Longreach remains black stubble with little to no response. The area south of Longreach towards Stonehenge and Isisford/Yaraka, through to the southwest border and channel country areas remain very dry. This area again missed any significant rainfall during May. Some country in the eastern shires from Muttaburra to Tambo has reasonable pasture with the Buffel Grass areas responding well to the good rain that was received in May. The Mitchell grass country has been slow to respond. Stock are generally in good condition as a result of low stocking rates. In the South West area useful rainfall was received across the eastern shires during the past month. Some areas around Augathella and Morven recorded good falls of over 100mm. There is very little quantity of pasture grown from the May rains and areas are becoming denuded of vegetation due to the combination of the light season, hot/dry conditions and prevailing winds. Stock numbers in general in the area of the South-West are low and trends suggest numbers will get lower at an accelerated rate. Dry stock, as a general rule, are in store to forward store condition. Breeder cattle condition in general is store, but many droughted animals are beginning to appear throughout the southern half of the west region. There are isolated areas however that still have well conditioned animals on hand.

Central Region: Most stock are in reasonable condition but this is still attributed to lower stocking numbers and the use of supplementary feeding. While there is a steady number of cattle going to feedlots, livestock numbers passing through the Moura saleyards have dropped off averaging only about 600 head at the fortnightly sale. Some producers are looking for agistment but it is hard to source. Stock being turned off coastal pastures are in good condition and should hold through to the warmer months. Stock in the hinterland are also holding well, however, without rain pastures will not hold and condition will fall. Rain has greened some pastures and induced a little bit of growth. This however only lasted for a few days before the cold weather all but stopped any growth. There is still some body to the feed on most places, but nearly all producers are supplementary feeding as the quality has dropped off. Coastal plains currently have an excellent body of feed. There has been no improvement in western pastures with many properties supplementary feeding their stock. Surface water is low on a lot of properties and this could be a problem in the coming months.

South-East Region: Livestock have generally held condition during May although condition is starting to fall away as winter approaches. Weaners are being removed much earlier than normal in response to this. Producers continue to lighten off stock numbers to assist their core breeding herds that are being fed on available pastures. Lighter conditioned cattle are appearing in the sale yards as this destocking picks up. Dairy producers are continuing to use feed brought from off farm to maintain stock condition. Supplementary feeding has increased to assist in maintaining livestock condition thus enabling producers to utilise any available dry feed. It appears that the cost of fodder is increasing as demand rises because of the patchy nature of available pastures. Some areas are enjoying adequate levels of feed available while others are suffering from poor quality and quantity resulting from the dry conditions.

South Region: The pasture quality and quantity continues to fall dramatically. The late seasonal rain provided low and scattered rainfall across the area which offered little relief to summer pasture. Rainfall in the Maranoa district has produced some winter herbage. Overall stock numbers are down as a consequence of the continuing drought conditions and many producers have reduced stock rates to meet the declining pasture conditions. Animals are generally in average to below body condition. Stock water supply for many producers remains critical. There is insufficient pasture in large areas of the region to carry stock through the winter months and supplementary feeding on agistment properties is in short supply.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: On the Tablelands the harvest of the winter flowering grasses such as Callide Rhodes, Bisset and Floren Bluegrasses is complete. While weather conditions during harvest were not entirely favourable, seed quality and yields were generally average. The peanut harvest is continuing with most of the potato crops now planted. Maize crops are ready to be harvested. The continued warm and wet conditions in the Innisfail district have delivered good levels of banana production with a high level of fruit quality. There has been some root rot in Pawpaw trees from prolonged levels of high soil moisture but fruit production levels remain high. In the Bowen district the cropping season continues with growers operating on a 75% water allocation. Seasonal conditions remain favourable for sugar cane production and the crop is growing well. The crush has commenced on the Atherton Tablelands while the rest of the region should follow on over the next month.

Central Region: May was a month of variable rainfall in the Dawson-Callide Valleys, with a much anticipated rainfall event moving through the area in the middle of the month. This rainfall sparked a significant winter crop planting in the Dawson valley, although the rain in the Callide was not enough to see much of a winter crop planted. Although final estimates have not been made, it appears that 20 -30,000 ha of winter crop could be planted on this event. Most growers have planted wheat and barley with some small areas of chickpea double cropped into sorghum stubble. The summer crop harvest has largely wound up, with only a few areas of late sorghum harvested after the rain in the middle of the month. Yields have been reasonable to good, particularly in parts of the Dawson valley that received good summer rain. Most sorghum crops have averaged in the 2.5 - 3.5 t/ha range, with some improvement in the price ensuring reasonable returns. There are still some areas in the Callide Valley waiting for a planting opportunity, and with the main planting window closing at the end of June, growers in this area are looking for rain in the near future to allow them to plant. There was some good rain received in the Central Highlands allowing for a winter planting opportunity. Emerald received 66mm, and better falls of around 90-100mm were reported in the Gindie District. This replenished soil moisture profiles, and provided an excellent planting opportunity. The cane crop has responded well to the early May rainfall, some patchiness but most areas received around 100 mm. Fallow cane planting has commenced in most areas and the rain should ensure emergence of early harvested ratoons when the crushing season commences in late June to early July.

South-East Region: To date approximately fifteen percent of regional winter crop plantings have occurred and without follow up rain these crops have a lower than normal chance of success. It appears most growers have relied less upon winter cropping due to the low average seasonal rainfall and poor returns. Peanuts and pulses have generally been used as the major income crop. Feedlots have provided some backstop for failed grain crops by utilising the crops that have been cut for silage. Harvesting of avocados in South East Queensland continues. As the dry weather returns it is expected that this problem should diminish. Harvesting of this year's macadamia crop continued and overall yields in Queensland are similar to 2004. However it would appear that between individual growers there is a lot of variation in performance, with some growers reporting very good yields and other indicating they are well down. The South East Queensland custard apple harvesting season is generally complete with prices and yields reported as generally good.

South Region: The Border Rivers wheat crop has been planted following light rainfall up to 75mm. Most paddocks have 80 to 120mm of available soil moisture. The wheat outlook shows a 20-30% probability of the shire wheat yields exceeding the long-term median wheat yield. There has been some strike of medics in pastures but more follow-up rain is needed to benefit these strikes. On the Darling Downs dry conditions continue and no winter crops have been planted. The wheat outlook shows a 10-30% probability of wheat yields exceeding the long-term median for the Central Downs and a 0-10% probability of wheat yields exceeding the long-term median for the Southern Downs. The Northern Downs outlook shows a 0-20% chance of wheat yields exceeding the long-term median yield. In the western Maranoa rainfall up to 60mm has prompted the widespread planting of wheat. There has been a good germination of medics following this rain. Subsoil moisture profiles show a dry band of soil at depth and follow up rain is required to benefit crop performance. In the St George area 50 to 100mm of rain prompted the widespread planting of wheat. On the Western Downs rainfalls ranging from 20 to 50mm prompted the planting of wheat on approximately 50% of the area. Follow up rain is needed to aid secondary root growth and link the surface moisture with deeper subsoil moisture. The wheat outlook shows only a 0-10% of wheat yields exceeding the long-term median yield.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 87mm (427) Cairns A/P 20mm (107), Malanda n/a (118), Ingham 37mm (126), Innisfail 111mm (n/a), Townsville 21mm (40), Tully Sugar Mill 62mm (371), Bowen 26mm (n/a), Charters Towers 15mm (n/a), Georgetown 0.4mm (10) and Normanton A/P 0.0mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 52mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P 7mm (n/a), Boulia 0.2mm (14), Windorah 2mm (23), Cloncurry 5mm (13), Mt Isa 1mm (17), Longreach 45mm (29), Muttaburra 36mm (22), Winton 19mm (23) and Charleville 52mm (41).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 30mm (40), Clermont 58mm (47), Springsure 82mm (47), Mackay 152mm (115), Yaamba 55mm (63), Biloela A/P 14mm (43), Mt Larcom 23mm (63), Gladstone 20mm (70), and Theodore 55mm (47), Yeppoon 58mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 2mm (44), Gayndah AP 52mm (n/a), Mundubbera 60mm (40), Esk 34mm (59), Kilkivan 69mm (49), Kingaroy 41mm (n/a), Nanango 55mm (48), Proston 52 (45), and Beaudesert 31mm (76). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 81mm (69), Maryborough 64mm (78), Nambour 113mm (139) and Tewantin 159mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 18 (48), Dalby 14mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 40mm (n/a), Inglewood 23 (43), Oakey 8mm (45), Pittsworth 19 (44), Stanthorpe 24mm (52), Toowoomba 26mm (n/a), Warwick 44mm (n/a), Roma 62mm (n/a), Miles 38mm (n/a), St George A/P 77mm (n/a) and Taroom 29mm (42).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Water supplies vary across the region and there is concern is for surface water in the Normanton and Townsville stock districts.

West Region: Water supplies are variable throughout the region. Some properties in the Isisford area and far western properties are experiencing water shortages. Some producers have been carting water for up to four months.

Central Region: There have been some rain events throughout the region although this only caused minor rises in some streams. Overall water storage levels are low and continuing to decrease.

South East Region: Water still remains a problem with both surface and underground supplies continuing to decline rapidly.

South Region: Water storages are generally low to variable across the district. Scattered rains have provided limited run off which offered little relief to increase surface storage and bore water supplies are dropping quickly. The water storage capacity for the Granite Belt is on the verge of critical. There has not been sufficient runoff rain to lift dam capacity levels and there has been no recharge for ground water storages and no significant change to stream flows.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.