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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) shifted from plus 11.5 for October to minus 2.2 for November. Based on a 'Rapidly Falling' phase there is a 50 to 70% chance of getting above median rainfall during December to February across most of Queensland. Therefore rainfall is less likely to be below median and more likely to be median to above median. Current sea surface temperature patterns are interesting especially due to the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures that can be found around Australia's eastern and northern coastline. If this warming trend continues it may have a positive influence on our expected summer rainfall.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a band of low air pressure originating on the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown it to be a useful indicator of the timing, but not amounts, of potential rainfall events. The timing of MJO events has been reasonably consistent since May averaging around 45 days. However the timing of the current passage of the MJO appears to have extended. Therefore the next active phase should begin across northern Australia around mid December.

STATE OVERVIEW:

There has been widespread patchy storm rain across parts of the State which has promoted good quality and quantities of pasture growth and allowed some planting of crops. However, areas in the west and north have generally missed this rainfall and conditions have failed to improve. In line with the rain received, livestock condition has improved with the majority of stock in fair condition for this time of year. Water continues to be an issue in many areas.

There are currently 61 shires and 7 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 60.6% of the land area of the State. There are also 124 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 17 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: Summer storms continued across the region this month with some isolated hail and wind storms damaging crops and property infrastructure in the Atherton Tablelands. The 2005 cane harvest is coming to a close and the northern meatworks have also closed for the Christmas break, with the cattle market slowing accordingly. Temperatures have been very hot and pastures, while responding to the odd storm, are showing the effects of the heat. The mango harvest is ongoing with prices and quality generally at very high levels.

West Region: There has been scattered rainfall with little or no follow up across the region for November. Pasture growth has deteriorated from the lack of rain. The situation for shires in the north and south west is dry and deteriorating as these areas did not benefit from earlier winter rain. Dry winds combined with higher temperatures and evaporation are consistent across the region. Most properties are well below stocking averages and stock condition is starting to decline as pastures deteriorate. The West region has experienced searing high temperatures of above 40*C during the month with storms clouds building but generally not delivering any rain.

Central Region: Whilst the eastern part of the Banana shire received almost double the median rainfall, most other areas received below average rainfall for November. Conditions in the Central Region are quite variable. Some parts received well above median rainfall for October/early November to begin the wet season a little earlier than expected. Dams have filled, creeks have started to run and those properties with healthy pastures are now seeing good growth. However, the southern parts of Calliope Shire are reporting high temperatures causing evaporation and therefore not allowing pastures to recover. Both surface and underground water supplies are low.

South-East Region: Good storm rain fell over most of the region during the month with some areas within the region receiving good volumes. For other areas the rainfall remained quite patchy. The rain received has promoted good growth in both native and improved pastures and the hot and humid conditions have assisted this growth. Some minor damage to horticultural properties was experienced as a result of some of these storms. Generally, cropping enterprises have enjoyed a good start to the summer season and plantings in most areas are almost complete. Erosion has occurred in some areas where there has been little ground cover.

South Region: There was widespread rain in November throughout the region following on from good falls received in October. Most areas of the eastern portion of the region received between 120mm to 200mm. The remainder of the South region received between 50 - 100mm. Generally pasture growth is average to above average for this time of year. However, additional falls are needed to generate any substantial quantities of feed to carry stock throughout the summer period. The wheat harvest has now concluded although the rain caused interruptions to the harvest in the Border Rivers area. While there has been good rain received there are no reports of significant improvement to major dam levels.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: Prices remain high as supplies of certain lines of stock become difficult to source. Overall cattle are in fair condition at the start of the summer season. The hot days are impacting on pastures but this is normal for this time of year. Patchy storms continue to be a feature across the region and those lucky enough to be under one have seen a pasture response. Generally, supplementary feeding has ceased in many parts of the region. From the mid Peninsula down through much of the Mareeba Stock District ranges from very dry to dry and scattered areas have a burnt green pick from earlier storms. Other stock areas pastures have responded well to the rain received and are generally in a fair condition. Breeders are currently calving and in areas which have received little or no rain stock condition could deteriorate.

West Region: Generally, pasture quality and quantity in the West region is low. The areas such as Longreach, Ilfracombe and Blackall that received some rain in November may have received enough rain to keep the available herbage green. There have been some scattered storms between Winton and Boulia which resulted in a green tinge in the pasture and some growth. However, around Cunnamulla there has been very little to no pasture growth and the quality of feed is very poor. Stock condition is starting to decline as pasture availability continues to decrease. The exception is in the Longreach, Ilfracombe, Aramac and Blackall areas where stock condition is generally good for this time of year due to the availability of herbage of the past few months. Most properties are carrying below normal stocking rates which are allowing pasture to regenerate quickly without interruption if rain is received. The situation for shires in the south west continues to be dry and is deteriorating. Reports of dry winds and high temperatures are consistent across the region and these climatic conditions are contributing to continued low pasture quality and quantity.

Central Region: In areas which have seen good rain in November the pastures are of good quality and quantity. High temperatures and humidity have been conducive to pasture growth where there is adequate moisture. However, in areas which have not received follow up rain the pasture is being dried off by the heat. Supplementary feeding is still occurring in the areas that have missed the November rainfall. Generally stock in the region are in a fair condition and in some areas are improving. Breeders are calving which can place additional nutritional burden in the areas where pastures are in short supply.

South-East Region: Livestock condition is steadily improving after the recent storm rainfall and in some areas this is also the result of light stocking rates. Dairy farmers had been drought feeding to maintain production levels as well as cattle condition but the number of farmers still drought feeding has been reduced. Pastures are generally responding well to the storm rain received and the hot humid conditions experienced in between these storms. Native pastures are reported to be very good in both quality and quantity, although some areas are reporting that the quality is good but the quantity is still coming as pastures are still short. Some areas have also reported that improved pastures are being turned into hay and silage.

South Region: Pastures responded well to the October and November rain however additional falls are needed to generate any substantial quantities of feed to carry stock through the warmer summer months. Pasture growth is generally average to above average for most of the region. Generally, producers are continuing to keep their stock numbers down. The current pasture condition has alleviated the requirement for most producers to drought feed. Cattle prices remain high and the capacity to buy stock is limited. Stock conditions have improved slightly as a result of the more favourable pasture conditions.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: The major planting of maize and peanut crops has commenced on the Atherton Tablelands. Crops of early planted peanuts are looking good. The potato harvest has finished with reasonable prices and some excellent yields in the later crops. Grass seed harvesting and hay production is occurring and Rhodes grass hay production is ongoing. Banana quality is good and prices reasonable. The mango harvest is under way with quality and prices at very high levels. Overall production is down on last year's large crop, up to 60% in the Mareeba-Dimbulah area. The cane harvest started to wind up with the Mossman and Tableland mills finishing crushing this month but most mills are still going and will finish some time during December. The late finish is due to wet weather early in the harvesting season. The risk of leaving stand over cane has lowered but is still there depending on the weather conditions during December. Overall most northern crops yielded well.

Central Region: Following a reasonable winter harvest soil moisture profiles are extremely variable across the region's cropping areas. Rainfall has been quite patchy for the month of November in the Callide and Dawson Valleys. Going into summer, there have been plantings of sorghum crops in the Central and Northern Highlands and Callide Valley. There has been enough fine weather to the get remainder of the cotton plantings completed in the Emerald district. So far the young crop has generally progressed well with temperatures remaining moderate so far. The cane harvest is almost complete in the Mackay, Sarina and Proserpine cane growing regions with good yields so far. Tropical fruit such as mangos and lychees are now well advanced. The Dawson River experienced some flooding during the month which has replenished irrigation supplies.

South-East Region: Rain received in November has generally provided a good start to the summer season. Severe but localised hail and wind storms have caused some damage to sweet corn, melon, lettuce and stone fruit in the Lockyer Valley, and to mango, bean and lemon crops east of Gympie and Beerwah. The rain during November has been of benefit to macadamia orchards in the region. Good rainfall during the fruit development period following flowering and fruit will significantly help with the production of good nut size and quality in the 2006 harvest. Pineapple producers were continuing with both harvesting and planting in November. There are reports of good flowering and fruit in the persimmon orchards in the area.

South Region: The Darling Downs has received good falls in November continuing on from the good rain received in late October. Growers are planting a significant area of sorghum. Cotton planting is complete although some replanting was necessary due to surface crusting from the rain. Due to the limited winter plantings in some areas the fallowed area has good soil moisture profiles. This may mean above average prospects for summer plantings. Further follow up rain is needed to generate overland flow and enable widespread pumping to fill tank storages for the irrigated areas. There has been some hail damage to vegetable crops in the Amiens area. Generally the apple yields for the region have been above average.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 52mm (222) Cairns A/P 29mm (100), Malanda 0.2mm (106), Ingham 11mm (112), Innisfail 49mm (n/a), Townsville 6mm (55), Tully Sugar Mill 29mm (170), Bowen 6mm (n/a), Charters Towers 68mm (n/a), Georgetown 39mm (63) and Normanton A/P 39mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 53mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P 0.6mm (n/a), Boulia 38mm (19), Windorah 24mm (16), Cloncurry 21 (29), Mt Isa 17mm (24), Longreach 23mm (7), Muttaburra 12mm (31), Winton 5mm (28) and Charleville 10mm (42).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 20mm (46), Clermont 42mm (64), Springsure 20mm (66), Mackay 15mm (88), Yaamba 61mm (67), Biloela A/P 135mm (86), Mt Larcom 92mm (89), Gladstone 57mm (81), Theodore 9mm (86), and Yeppoon 18mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 99mm (78), Gayndah AP 87mm (n/a), Mundubbera 63mm (80), Esk 95mm (87), Kilkivan 63mm (81), Kingaroy 61mm (n/a), Nanango 42mm (85), Proston 44mm (76), and Beaudesert 63mm (93). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 124mm (101), Maryborough 122mm (105), Nambour 152mm (158) and Tewantin 189mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 191mm (85), Dalby 75mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 151mm (n/a), Inglewood n/a (69), Oakey 46mm (81), Pittsworth 147 (83), Stanthorpe 116mm (85), Toowoomba AP 120mm (n/a), Warwick 63mm (n/a), Roma 63mm (n/a), Miles 72mm (n/a), St George A/P 36mm (n/a) and Taroom 53mm (75).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water generally appears to be an issue across the region although bore and under ground water supplies are adequate.

West Region: The majority of water available is artesian although recent rains have provided surface water in some areas. High temperatures and evaporation are quickly drying up most surface waters.

Central Region: Water storages for Central Queensland remain low. There was a big flow in the Dawson River which has helped water harvesters and irrigators.

South East Region: Due to the nature of the storm rains some dams have completely filled whilst in other areas there has still been no runoff. There are no restrictions on irrigation, however, there has been sufficient rainfall and follow up to reduce the need to irrigate in some areas.

South Region: Recent rains have seen an improvement in the water situation for most areas. Creeks have begun to run again and most dams are full, although there has not been any significant improvement to major dam levels.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.