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07 Aug 2008

OUTLOOK:

The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) shifted from plus 3.3 for September to plus 11.5 for October placing the SOI in a "Rapidly Rising" phase. Based on the current SOI phase and historical rainfall records for November through to the end of January there is a 50 to 70% chance of getting above median rainfall for the central west, a lower 20 to 40% chance of getting above median rainfall for southern Queensland (especially for the border regions) and 40 to 60% chance of getting above median rainfall across the rest of the state.

The last passage of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in mid-October helped trigger some welcome falls of rain especially across central and southern Queensland. While providing a positive mid-point to spring by encouraging pasture growth, increasing soil moisture profiles and reducing the overall fire risk there has been some impact on wheat crop harvesting.

According to information from the Bureau of Meteorology "El Niņo wrap up" the key indicators (SOI, trade winds and sea surface temperatures) confirm the continuation of a neutral sea surface temperature and climate pattern in the Pacific. This pattern would therefore be unlikely to change before the end of the year.

STATE OVERVIEW:

The State has seen some good widespread rain during October which has promoted good quality and quantities of pasture. This has resulted in most regions heading into the summer season in a good position. In line with the rain received, livestock condition has improved with the majority of stock in good condition. There are however pockets in the State where rain was not received and conditions have failed to improve. These areas are mainly in the southern and northern areas of the West region. Recent storm activity has resulted in significant hail damage in the Granite Belt area. There are currently 61 shires and 7 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is equivalent to 60.6% of the land area of the State. There are also 124 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 17 shires.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES:

North Region: Widespread early storms moved across the region late in the month with good falls reported in most districts. These storms, following a wet winter in many areas, have been beneficial for pastures which responded well in most areas although further falls are required to maintain this response. The cane crush continues and some dry weather this month allowed harvesters to catch up after rain caused delays early in the crush. The vegetable cropping season in the Bowen district has all but finished with reasonable yields and prices achieved across most lines. Overall the region continues in a normal pattern for this time of year.

West Region: Across the region rain received has resulted in a relatively above average October in some areas with resultant pasture response. However, the situation for shires in the north and south west is dry and deteriorating as these areas did not benefit from winter rain. Dry winds combined with higher temperatures and evaporation are consistent across the region, decreasing the opportunity to benefit from the recent rain. Where rain has fallen and promoted pasture growth livestock appear to be in good to above average condition.

Central Region: Most areas of Central Region received well above median rainfall for October to begin the wet season a little earlier than expected. In the six months, May to October, above median rain fell across the region. Beef producers in most parts of the region are generally in a better position than the previous month. Dams have filled, creeks have started to run and those properties with healthy pastures are now seeing good growth. The coastal region generally received less rain than the interior resulting in pasture being slower to respond. Both surface and underground water is likely to be strained going into summer.

South-East Region: While good widespread rain fell over the region during the month, volume remained patchy with some areas recording well below the average. There was very little run off and as such major dam levels continue to remain low. The rainfall does hold some promise for livestock producers given pasture quantity and quality had been in a poor state prior to the rain. Horticultural producers are reporting some minor damage from hail. Harvesting was also interrupted as producers could not get into their paddocks due to the wet conditions. Broadacre cropping should enjoy a better outlook for summer than in previous years given the current good moisture profiles.

South Region: There was widespread rain this month over the eastern fringe of the region, as well as the Injune district which received over 100mm. The remainder of the South district received between 50 - 100mm. Pastures have responded well to the October rain however, additional falls are needed to generate any substantial quantities of feed. The rain, however, has caused interruptions to the wheat harvest in the Border Rivers area as well as impacting on the Darling Downs cotton growers who were unable to plant. Producers in the Granite Belt area were subjected to severe hail damage with crop damage as well as major infrastructure damage to hail nets. There have been no reports of significant improvement to major dam levels.

LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:

North Region: In the Mareeba district limited rainfall throughout the year is starting to show in the quality of pasture and cattle condition. The Normanton district received some patchy rainfall during the month although good storms received early in the season provided some relief for producers. Most stock are below 3 score. Pasture is dry and is low in nutritional value. Surface water levels are below what would be expected for this time of the year. Around the Malanda and Innisfail stock district recent rain has resulted in improved conditions and trends now look favourable for the coming season. Pasture quantity and quality is fine with little to no problems associated with water. Pasture growth from recent storm rains varies across the Charters Towers district. In most areas there has been a positive response although in other areas available feed appears to be deteriorating as the warmer weather approaches. Livestock are starting to slip but it is expected that they should improve as protein levels of pasture grass increase after recent rain. Most areas in the Townsville district received some storm rain during October which brought about some pasture response. Stock appear to be in good condition. Surface water is low although underground supplies appear to be holding. Generally the majority of stock across the Georgetown district are in fair to good condition. The exception to this is in parts of the Gilberton, Lynd and Kidston areas and the southern part of Croydon Shire where condition is starting to slip. The quality of available pasture is low with the majority of properties using supplements to maintain the condition of stock.

West Region: In the north west district around McKinlay, Cloncurry and part of Boulia shire pasture quality and quantity is poor with little to no growth over the past month. Water availability remains good with mostly artesian water. A small amount of surface water is still available in some areas but is starting to show signs of decline. Cattle are starting to decline as pasture availability continues to decrease even though most properties are destocked to well below average numbers. Pasture quality and quantity in the Central West district has benefited from recent rainfalls allowing good herbage cover. Rain received in the lighter areas of the Desert Uplands is promoting good feed, especially given the time of year. Stock condition is good due to the availability of herbages and the continued pasture growth in the area. Around the Blackall district pasture quality and quantity is growing well due to above average rainfall in the area. Most properties are carrying below normal stocking rates which are allowing pasture to regenerate quickly without interruption. Cattle and sheep are generally in good to above average condition. The situation for shires in the south west continues to be dry and is deteriorating as these areas did not benefit from winter rain. Reports of dry winds and high temperatures are consistent across the region and these climatic conditions are contributing to continued low pasture quality and quantity. Those areas that appear to be struggling the most are Bulloo, Paroo and Quilpie where some areas are completely denuded.

Central Region: The Emerald district recorded very good rainfall during the last two weeks of October. Pastures, particularly buffel grass have responded well with the increase in day length and temperatures. Stock condition is generally good with a trend for stocking rates to be fairly light following a string of poor years. Cattle in the Alpha district are in good condition and should continue to improve. Cows are giving birth to good sized, healthy calves and the market remains strong. Where the rain has fallen the pastures are in good condition as well as having good subsoil moisture. Overall the condition of stock going through the Biloela, Moura and Miriam Vale sales has been excellent. Paddock stock is in fair condition. Generally the quality and quantity of pastures had been poor at the beginning of the month, especially around Biloela, however recent rainfall has seen an improvement and it is expected that this should continue. The cattle market remains strong and the anticipated increased demand for store cattle should ensure that prices will be maintained. Although recent rains had damaged much of the dry standing matter and new growth, cattle in and around Rockhampton are now recovering and it is expected that body condition should improve quickly.

South-East Region: Livestock condition is steadily improving after the recent rainfall assisted in promoting good pasture growth. Prior to the break in the season a high level of drought supplementary feeding had been reported. Dairy farmers had also been drought feeding to maintain production levels as well as cattle condition. Since the rain the majority of producers ceased this feeding as pastures have responded well. Grazing areas which were conservatively stocked have also responded well and quality feed is now available. The stormy weather with hot humid conditions is ideal for pasture growth. There is limited agistment currently taking place in the region although the restocking of properties is expected to increase as pasture reserves improve.

South Region: Pastures responded well to the October rain however additional falls are needed to generate any substantial quantities of feed. Stock numbers are down as a consequence of the current dry times as producers have reduced their stocking numbers in line with declining pasture conditions. Although, as cattle prices remain high the capacity to buy stock is limited. Cattle are in average to below body condition. Recent pasture growth should assist producers and help to alleviate the need to drought feed. The majority of above ground supplies have generally benefited from the rain with most dam levels rising. However, there are still water concerns reported in the Taroom shire.

CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:

North Region: The potato harvest continues on the Tablelands with size being slightly below average although yields have been very good. Widespread storms have occurred allowing farmers to commence ground preparation for summer crops. Rhodes grass hay production is ongoing. In the Bowen district the cropping of tomatoes, capsicum, beans and corn has entered its final stages with growers finishing up during October and early November. Price and yields were reasonable with the exception of green beans and sweet corn which generally had poor returns. The mango harvest will commence in the Burdekin and Bowen districts during November. Banana quality is good and prices appear reasonable. In all districts across the region the cane harvest continues with most districts planning to finish in December. Rain delays have pushed finishing dates back well into December which in turn increases the risk of more rain delays. The wet winter in the wet tropics has also kept the crops growing which has increased tonnages but has impacted on sugar content and CCS. In the Herbert district it is expected that the season will see a late finish in early December. In the Burdekin district ongoing rain delays and a late start by Pioneer Mill may see cane left to stand over. To avoid leaving cane in the paddocks growers need dry weather from now until the end of the harvest in mid December. In the Tully district the crush is on target and the risk of standover cane has decreased. This is dependent however that dry weather remains until harvest is complete. CCS is holding around the district average.

Central Region: The month of October turned out to be a reasonably wet one in the Callide and Dawson Valleys. In two rainfall events totals of 50 - 100 mm in the Callide and 100 - 175 mm in the Dawson Valley were recorded. There have been a few reports of 175 - 200 mm in some areas of the Dawson Valley which is 60 mm higher than the average for October. Much of the Dawson Valley's winter crop had been harvested before the rain, with many above average yields and reasonable to good grain quality. However, it will take a few weeks for paddocks to dry out enough before harvesting can resume. As there was less rain in the Callide Valley harvesting had commenced earlier. In both valleys, wheat prices are the lowest seen for many years. Barley and chickpea prices are closer to average, and yields this year have been at or slightly above average. Some growers in the Dawson Valley are considering a double cropping opportunity given the good rain. This will be dependent on stored soil moisture levels before this decision can be made. Cotton planting in the Central Highlands was held up by a number of storm fronts that had come across the region during the end of the month. Hail storms have made an impact with one particular storm affecting nearly 800 hectares on the western side of the Emerald Irrigation Area. With the recent rain, it is expected that some growers will a plant sorghum crop although planting at this time of the year does risk hot temperatures at flowering and rain at harvest. However, it also provides the opportunity to double crop into wheat or chickpeas if rain is received. The cane harvest is approximately 75% complete in the Mackay region and yields have been near average. Peanut and soybean crops are in preparation for planting at the beginning of November. Most tree crops around Rockhampton have set fruit well and avoided any wind or rain damage.. Much of the vegetable production has come to an end with the exception of some potato crops that may have suffered some damage from rain.

South-East Region: Rain received in October should see a good start to summer crop plantings. It is not likely that irrigators will experience any significant changes as Bjelke-Petersen and Boondooma dams received minimal top up. Rain received eased the dry conditions however there is still very little stream flow or recharge for dams and further rain is required. Some good falls were recorded during October however this was accompanied by hail damage in some areas of the Lockyer and Fassifern Valleys. Damage to pumpkin, sweetcorn and bean crops occurred in the Tenthill and Laidley areas. The rain during October has helped consolidate macadamia fruit set in orchards that are not normally irrigated. The 2005 macadamia harvesting season is now complete and this year's crop is down by about 5% on the previous year. This may be attributed to the dry period between April to September 2004. The strawberry season is now complete and nearly all growers have sprayed out their plants. Strawberry growers are now busy preparing their fields to plant a summer cover crop. The low-chill stone fruit harvest is complete for growers in the coastal areas of South East Queensland although some harvesting is expected to continue in the Kumbia district near Kingaroy.

South Region: Across the Darling Downs, rain received during late October ranged from 100 to 200mm. Growers are planting a significant area of sorghum although some are considering other cropping options such as millets, sunflower, maize due to the current low sorghum prices. It is anticipated that a large summer cropping area may be planted as generally there was no significant winter crop. The winter cereal harvest generally ranged from poor to ordinary, with low yields and pinched grain. St George received around 90mm of rain during the month and it appears that wheat crops have not been affected by the recent falls. Cotton planting is complete although some replanting was necessary due to surface crusting from the rain. Around Roma, the winter crop harvest is almost finished with yields averaging around 2 t/ha. The quality has been variable with proteins ranging from 8% to 15% and screenings around 5% to 15%. The wheat harvest is nearly complete in the Western Downs with those crops planted in May performing well. Growers in the Border Rivers area have nearly completed their winter crop harvest which had been interrupted by rain.

RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)

North Region: Babinda received 32mm (109) Cairns A/P 8mm (44), Malanda 18mm (50), Ingham 53mm (47), Innisfail 69mm (n/a), Townsville 40mm (25), Tully Sugar Mill 28mm (97), Bowen 12mm (n/a), Charters Towers 45mm (n/a), Georgetown 36mm (18) and Normanton A/P 3mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 99mm (n/a).

West Region: Birdsville A/P 10mm (n/a), Boulia 12mm (13), Windorah 7mm (17), Cloncurry 17 (20), Mt Isa 24mm (20), Longreach 26mm (18), Muttaburra 8mm (22), Winton 14mm (16) and Charleville 62mm (31).

Central Region: Alpha recorded 75mm (34), Clermont 165mm (36), Springsure 187mm (42), Mackay 75mm (39), Yaamba 25mm (42), Biloela A/P 109mm (61), Mt Larcom 71mm (59), Gladstone 100mm (61), Theodore 153mm (64), and Yeppoon 132mm (n/a).

South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 125mm (66), Gayndah AP 169mm (n/a), Mundubbera 169mm (71), Esk 195mm (82), Kilkivan 13mm (75), Kingaroy 109mm (n/a), Nanango 137mm (79), Proston 119mm (70), and Beaudesert 99mm (74). On the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 102mm (67), Maryborough 234mm (75), Nambour 109mm (107) and Tewantin 105mm (n/a).

South Region: Clifton 176mm (67), Dalby 126mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 70mm (n/a), Inglewood 61 (58), Oakey 85mm (61), Pittsworth 55 (67), Stanthorpe 129mm (76), Toowoomba 123mm (n/a), Warwick 130mm (n/a), Roma 91mm (n/a), Miles 30mm (n/a), St George A/P 74mm (n/a) and Taroom 110mm (60).

WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES

North Region: Surface water generally appears to be an issue across the region although bore and under ground water supplies are adequate.

West Region: Surface water available in most areas although dams are starting to show signs of becoming boggy. Bore water supplies are generally good and overall, not a lot of producers in the area are experiencing major water shortages.

Central Region: Good rain was recorded during the month with many places reaching or exceeding their monthly averages. However, water levels still generally remain low across Central Queensland. There were some exceptions around Mt Larcom where good rises were noted.

South East Region: Recent rainfall has assisted with the current dry conditions however there has been very little stream flow or recharge of dams. Generally, underground water supplies are still low.

South Region: Recent rains have seen an improvement in the water situation for most areas. Creeks have begun to run again and most dams are full.

Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY

Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454

National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)

The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries.