SITUATION AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2005
OUTLOOK:
The monthly value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rose from minus
6.5 at the end of August to plus 3.3 at the end of September placing it in
a "Rapidly Rising" phase. Based on this SOI phase and historical rainfall
records there is a 50 to 70% chance of getting above median rainfall for
October to December across most of Queensland.
Below average rainfall was recorded across most of the grain growing
regions of the state during August and September and may affect final crop
development growth stages. The current wheat outlook for the State as a
whole shows a final forecast yield at the end of September of 1.48t/ha
which is ranked 59th relative to the previous 100 years.
According to information from the Bureau of Meteorology "El Niņo wrap up"
the key indicators (SOI, trade winds and sea surface temperatures) confirm
the continuation of a neutral sea surface temperature and climate pattern
in the Pacific. This pattern would therefore be unlikely to change before
the end of the year.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Generally across the State, pasture and livestock conditions are starting
to deteriorate as the warmer months approach and little rain has been
received. Dry season supplementation feeding is being carried out by
producers in line with their normal management practices. Other factors
influencing the decline in pasture quality and quantity are the dry winds
and rising temperatures. Cattle are generally in average condition and
prices remain high. High temperatures have caused winter crops to dry out
rapidly and bring the harvest forward in some areas. There are currently
61 shires and 7 part shires drought declared under State processes, which
is equivalent to 60.6% of the land area of the State. There are also 113
Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 16 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: September is historically the north region's driest month of
the year and this remained true with little rain to report. In the
extensive grazing areas the normal seasonal decline of pastures and
livestock continues. Producers continue to carry out normal dry season
supplementation programs. On the Tablelands the winter cropping season has
generally finished and growers are preparing for summer plantings of
peanuts and maize. Overall the north is facing normal seasonal conditions
at present with temperatures starting to rise.
West Region: Across the region general rain received throughout winter has
resulted in a relatively above average September. Areas from the Winton
Shire down through to the Murweh Shire have experienced up to 100 to 200 kg
dry matter growth per hectare which is significantly higher than the rest
of the region. However, the situation for shires in the North and South
West is dry and deteriorating as these areas did not benefit from winter
rain. Dry winds and high temperatures are contributing to a continued low
pasture quality and quantity in the north and south of the region. Cattle
range from above average condition around Longreach where there is still
herbage available but slipping around the Flinders/Richmond areas where
pastures have fallen away.
Central Region: Most parts of Central Region generally received well below
median rainfall for September which is traditionally the driest month of
the year. As the warmer months approach the situation for beef producers in
most parts of the region has continued to deteriorate. Coastal graziers
have begun supplementary feeding as pasture quality and quantity diminish.
Good cattle prices have assisted in the reduction of stocking rates
although surface water supplies across the region appear to be the major
concern. The Central Queensland wheat outlook is still optimistic despite a
dry and warm finish. Some areas are hopeful of median to good yields
however crops in the northern highlands have received little in the last
two months.
South-East Region: September has seen a return of the warmer weather and
the start of the storm season. Several reports of hail storms have been
received throughout the South East region although there has generally been
little damage reported. Most of the major damage occurred to lettuce and
cabbage crops in the Grantham/Gatton area. In line with these hail storms
there have been some patchy falls although due to the extended periods
between falls with little or no follow up, the recent rains have generally
provided limited benefit.
South Region: The south east portion of the region recorded the highest
rainfall during the month with Inglewood, Killarney and Stanthorpe areas
recording over 35mm. The remainder of the region recorded below 25mm.
Pasture biomass is low, due to the dry January to April 2005 period with
most crops not having received any substantial rain since the May/June
period. The best yield potential is within the Border Rivers area and the
western portion of the region. There has been no real improvement in water
storage levels. Stock are in average to below average condition.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: Generally across the region livestock condition has started
to drop off as feed quality and quantities drop. Non breeders appear stable
at present but will require additional protein if they are to maintain
weight gain and condition. The hot dry conditions and excessive winds have
caused pasture quality and quantity in most areas to deteriorate. Condition
of stock around Normanton is below store. Cows with calves are feeling the
season and pasture is dry with little value. Winter rainfall has assisted
pastures to hold condition and quality in the Atherton and Eacham shires as
well as the northern parts of the Herberton shire. Areas to the south have
not fared as well. As with the pasture, stock are generally maintaining
good, score 3 condition in Eacham, Atherton and the northern part of the
Herberton shire while in the southern end of the Herberton shire stock are
losing condition. Stock condition is good. Cattle in the Etheridge Shire
and the northern part of Croydon Shire are still in fair to good condition.
The exceptions to this are in parts of the Gilberton, Lynd and Kidston
areas where stock are slipping in condition. The majority of the district
is starting to run short of grass although properties with low to moderate
stocking rates generally have adequate supplies of dry matter.
West Region: Mount Isa and Cloncurry Shires are consistent with the overall
outlook for the west region which is dry with temperatures in the high 30s.
Cattle condition is holding which is mainly due to the use of
supplementation. McKinley, Richmond and Flinders shires remain drought
affected and very little has changed over the previous month. Pasture at
Hughenden is deteriorating rapidly and any pasture that was generated by
scattered showers four weeks ago is now gone. Cattle condition is starting
to slip. Pasture in the areas around Richmond and Julia Creek is poor with
quality and quantity low. Longreach received more useful rain in September,
which allowed the herbage to remain good. The combination of the June
rainfall and repeated falls since has allowed cattle condition to remain
above average for the area. Barcoo shire remains dry. Most properties in
the Winton area are still benefiting from winter rains although as the
temperatures are rising into the mid 30's, pastures are starting to die
off. These rains have however promoted a good response in both Mitchell and
Buffel grasses. There has been no significant rainfall recorded in the
South West of the region. Pasture quantity and quality is low and most
herbage is now drying off rapidly. There appears to be no pasture in the
Paroo and Quilpie shires and the mulga is very dry. Water does not appear
to be an issue in this area however if follow up rain is not received in
the coming weeks it is possible that some dams may become boggy.
Central Region: Mackay district has seen a relatively mild winter with well
spaced low intensity rainfall events. Although only a few of these events
generally exceeded 25 mm, underground water supplies have been relieved
somewhat due to this rainfall. Dry season supplementation has begun
benefiting the wet cattle that have relied on depleted native pastures.
Pastures around the Nebo area are generally looking poor. Broadsound is
reasonable and dry cattle are in store to better condition. Rockhampton has
seen little rainfall during the last month and as a result of dry winds and
increased daily temperatures pastures have started to deteriorate.
Following an unseasonally wet winter the western parts of the Emerald
district are looking quite good. Reserves of pasture throughout the Central
Highlands vary although pastures are generally falling away. Dry cattle
have held condition although wet cattle are expected to slip. Reports from
Alpha indicate that both native and improved pastures are in good condition
although more rain is needed. Stock appear to be in good condition for this
time of year with no reports of water shortages in this area. Pasture
quantity and quality are slowly deteriorating throughout the Biloela
district however feed reserves are reasonable. There are some water
concerns around the Biloela area as well as to the east. Rolleston area is
looking marginally better than the rest of the shires. Cattle are holding
and are generally in store condition or better.
South-East Region: Prime stock are currently in short supply which has
resulted in some abattoirs having to close temporarily. Breeders are
feeling the effects of the dry conditions especially early calved heifers
and those which are calving now. Dry stock are still in good to reasonable
condition. Due to the limited availability of agistment and a decline in
feed levels many producers have elected to place their stock into feedlots.
There are some producers however who have elected to restock their
properties where a good body of feed is available, although as cattle
prices remain high this is becoming difficult. In line with appropriate
management practices many producers are supplementary feeding during this
current seasonal situation. Those paddocks which have low stocking rates
show a reasonable level of quality and quantity for this time of year,
however pastures have generally fallen away in quantity and quality due to
the dry conditions.
South Region: Due to a rainfall deficiency over the first half of the year
the quality and quantity of summer pastures had deteriorated over these
months. There was however good rain during May and June and in addition the
mild conditions promoted a good body of winter herbage. The Border Rivers
area currently appears to have a reasonable amount of pasture. The
remainder of the region is in need of more rain to promote summer pasture
growth. Stock numbers are down as producers continue to reduce stock to
meet declining pasture conditions. Animals are in average to below body
condition. Stock water for many producers is still in short supply.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: The potato harvest is continuing on the Tablelands with
average yields and reasonable prices. Some early planted trial peanuts
have now gone in. All maize crops have been harvested and growers are now
preparing paddocks for summer crops. Legume seed crops have been harvested
and some late Rhodes grass crops are coming off, which are of good quality
due to late rain during winter. Desmanthus seed is back on the market
again after a break of several years. This is mainly due to its high
drought tolerance and increased demand from Central Queensland graziers.
Banana prices have peaked at $28-$30/carton due to the high fruit quality
and little competition from other fruit in the market place. In the Bowen
district the cropping of tomatoes, capsicum, beans and corn continues.
Central Region: With no useful rain being recorded in most districts,
September had turned out to be a dry month in the Dawson and Callide
valleys. Temperatures started to rise sharply towards the end of the month
causing winter cereal crops to dry out rapidly. In most cases, this should
bring harvest forward without causing any significant loss of yield. There
are small areas of chickpea planted that have generally been less affected
by the heat and therefore should also produce reasonable yields. The start
of the planting window for all transgenic cotton varieties has commenced
and will continue through to 11 November. It is expected to see at least
90% of the Central Highlands cotton planted within this window. Harvesting
of irrigated wheat and chickpeas has begun. In the Southern Highlands,
large areas of wheat were planted following good soaking rains in May and
June. In the Northern Highlands, the situation has been vastly different
with winter rains being patchy and in a much smaller quantity. Sugar cane
statistics to date show CCS values are slightly up on last year. Some of
the plant cane crops following last years fallow soy bean program are
yielding exceptionally well. The coastal fruit growers are reporting
reasonable flowerings for lychees and mangoes. The biggest issue for the
coastal and non-irrigated growers will be water availability.
South-East Region: Very little rain fell during September with the
exception of hail storms in the Lockyer and Fassifern valleys. Good
flowering has occurred in most avocado orchards and fruit set appears to be
good at this early stage of the new season. September was a busy month for
pineapple growers who have been both harvesting and planting in the warmer
spring weather. Macadamia flowering this spring has been very good
providing the potential for a good crop in 2006. This will be contingent on
the non-irrigated orchards receiving good spring and summer rainfall. The
low chill stonefruit harvest began in the coastal areas during September
with reports of good prices be achieved. The dry sunny weather should
assist fruit quality and help bring-on early fruit.
South Region: In the Border Rivers district the country is drying out
rapidly as warmer conditions are experienced. It is expected that wheat
crops will be harvested soon and despite the lack of rainfall in September,
there should still be some respectable yields. Although little summer crop
has been planted to date there is some good subsoil moisture levels on
long-fallowed ground. Planting should proceed if rain is received before
February. Conditions have remained very dry on the Darling Downs with a
wide range of cereal wheat yields expected. In the Warwick area the crops
are finishing off quickly and pinched grain is likely. Rain is now needed
for sorghum planting to proceed in October. At St George barley and wheat
crops are nearing harvest and maturing quickly. Cotton is being planted and
watering-up is taking place. It is expected that the cotton yields at St
George will be around 14,000ha but only 3,000ha at Dirranbandi due to the
lack of available water. Roma winter crops are finishing up and growers are
confident of achieving yields of 2 to 2.5 t/ha. Early planted wheat crops
on the Western Downs are generally looking good. Current shire wheat yields
for the South region are likely to be between 0 to 40% below the long-term
median wheat yield.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 12mm (122) Cairns A/P 3mm (33), Malanda
11mm (36), Ingham 9mm (33), Innisfail 10mm (n/a), Townsville 2mm (10),
Tully Sugar Mill 16mm (104), Bowen 0mm (n/a), Charters Towers 0.2mm (n/a),
Georgetown 11mm (5) and Normanton A/P 40mm (n/a) and Proserpine A/P 2mm
(n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P 13mm (n/a), Boulia 11mm (6), Windorah 0.8mm
(9), Cloncurry n/a (6),
Mt Isa 4mm (8), Longreach 28mm (9), Muttaburra 7mm (10), Winton 0.9mm (7)
and Charleville 13mm (21).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 7mm (18), Clermont 6mm (15), Springsure 7mm
(26), Mackay 2mm (15), Yaamba 3mm (24), Biloela A/P 10mm (26), Mt Larcom
7mm (22), Gladstone 28mm (24), Theodore 10mm (28), and Yeppoon 1mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 2mm (29), Gayndah AP 10mm (n/a),
Mundubbera 7mm (29), Esk 22mm (37), Kilkivan 24mm (31), Kingaroy 50mm
(n/a), Nanango 22mm (33), Proston 21mm (31), and Beaudesert 38mm (38). On
the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 3mm (30), Maryborough 3mm (29),
Nambour 36mm (43) and Tewantin 14mm (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 15mm (38), Dalby 15mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 22mm (n/a),
Inglewood n/a (41), Oakey 15mm (32), Pittsworth 6 (33), Stanthorpe 37mm
(46), Toowoomba 13mm (n/a), Warwick 35mm (n/a), Roma 12mm (n/a), Miles 13mm
(n/a), St George A/P 14mm (n/a) and Taroom 11mm (28).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Water supplies generally appear to be adequate with no real
problems reported. There are a few areas around Normanton and parts of
Croydon shire where surface water is becoming an issue.
West Region: Surface water is available in most areas although dams are
starting to show signs of becoming boggy later in the year. Bore water
supplies are good. Overall the area does not appear to be experiencing
water shortages.
Central Region: Many centres struggled to reach the average monthly
rainfall for the month. Most streams in the region continued to reside with
some streams at or reaching stoppage level.
South East Region: Water storages continue to decline and are not being
refilled from the storm rains received.
South Region: Water supplies generally appear to be adequate at present
although there are a few producers facing shortages as surface water slowly
disappears
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
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The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
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