SITUATION AS AT 30 APRIL 2006
OUTLOOK:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to fluctuate and
shifted in value to plus 13.04 for April placing it in a Consistently
Rising' SOI phase. Based on historical rainfall records for May to July
with a Consistently Positive SOI phase at the end of April there is a 50
to 60% chance of getting above the long term May to July median rainfall
for south west Queensland, a 50 to 60% chance of getting above the long
term median rainfall for the Gulf country and a 40 to 50% chance of
getting above the long term median rainfall for the rest of the State.
Analysis of historical rainfall records also indicates that rainfall for
the three month period is more likely to be closer to median than well
above or well below median.
STATE OVERVIEW:
Tropical Cyclone (TC) Monica crossed the Queensland coast between
Lockhart River and Port Stewart at mid afternoon Wednesday 19 April
2006. Given the flooding and damage derived from Tropical Cyclone (TC)
Larry and TC Monica across the Far North, North and Central and South
West Queensland communities the Minister for Emergency Services
activated the Commonwealth/State Natural Disaster Relief Arrangements
(NDRA) which included the following local government areas: Atherton
Shire Council, Aurukun Shire Council, Aramac Shire Council, Badu Island
Council, Barcoo Shire Council, Barcaldine Shire Council, Bamaga Island
Council, Boigu Island Council, Bulloo Shire Council, Bauhinia Shire
Council, Belyando Shire Council, Blackall Shire Council, Boulia Shire
Council, Burdekin Shire Council, Burke Shire Council, Cairns City
Council, Cardwell Shire Council, Carpentaria Shire Council, Cloncurry
Shire Council, Cook Shire Council, Croydon Shire Council, Dalrymple
Shire Council, Darnley Island Council, Dauan Island Council, Diamantina
Shire Council, Doomadgee Aboriginal Shire Council, Douglas Shire
Council, Eacham Shire Council, Etheridge Shire Council, Flinders Shire
Council, Hammond Island Council, Herberton Shire Council, Hinchinbrook
Shire Council, Hopevale Community Government Council, Ilfracombe Shire
Council, Isisford Shire Council, Jericho Shire Council, Johnstone Shire
Council, Kowanyama Community Council, Kubin Island Council, Lockhart
River Aboriginal Council, Longreach Shire Council, Mabuiag Island
Council, Mapoon Shire Council, Mareeba Shire Council, McKinlay shire
Council, Mornington Shire Council, Mt Isa Shire Council, Murray Island
Council, Poruma Island Council, Pormpuraaw Aboriginal Council, Richmond
Shire Council, Saibai Island Council, Seisia Island Council, Stephen
Island Council, St Pauls Island Council, Tambo Shire Council, Torres
Shire Council, Thuringowa City Council, Townsville City Council Warraber
Island Community Council, Weipa Town Council, Winton Shire Council Wujul
Wujul Aboriginal Council, Yorke Island Council, Yam Island Council and
Yarrabah Aboriginal Shire Councils.
Good rainfall has been received across the northern and central regions
of Queensland which can mainly be attributed to the recent cyclone
activity but the remainder of the State generally missed out. Pastures
have responded in line with the current seasonal conditions. Grazing
areas in the north have seen a good finish to the summer period.
Elsewhere in the State short term pasture relief has been provided where
rain has fallen although in the south and south west of Queensland there
has generally been no improvement. Stock appear to be holding across all
regions and this can generally be attributed to the good rainfall in the
northern areas or destocking programs undertaken by property managers.
Many of the summer crops have failed or returned average to below
average yields as a result of dry conditions.
Following recommendations from the Local Drought Committee, the Minister
for Primary Industries and Fisheries drought declared the remainder of
Boulia Shire being that part north and east of the Urandangie North
Development Road, Kennedy Development Road, Diamantina Development Road
and Springvale Road as at 12 April 2006. There are currently 62 shires
and 6 part shires drought declared under State processes, which is
equivalent to 62.3% of the land area of the State. There are also 89
Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 11 shires.
REGIONAL SUMMARIES:
North Region: The majority of North Queensland experienced well above
average rainfall during April. This was due to continued monsoon
activity over Northern Australia with severe Tropical Cyclone Monica
having a major impact over Cape York Peninsula. Longstanding April
rainfall records were broken at Cairns, Burketown and Upper Stone near
Ingham. For the grazing areas it provided a very good finish to what was
becoming another below average wet season. Pastures have responded well
and should generally be adequate to carry stock through winter. In the
Wet Tropics and on the Tablelands rainfall has caused ongoing problems
in crops. Water logging and flooding has affected cane crops on the
coast and wet conditions have caused harvesting and planting delays on
the Tablelands.
West Region: Rainfall for the west region ranged from 13.4mm to 156mm.
Falls were scattered across the district with the northern areas around
Cloncurry, Julia Creek, Richmond, Mt Isa and Hughenden generally
receiving the most rain. The central west also received reasonable
showers in the last month with Longreach, Blackall and Winton slightly
above average. Areas in the south of the region are still well below
average with the lowest falls recorded at Charleville being 13.4mm.
Cunnamulla had slightly above average rainfall for April. Storm activity
provided some short term relief with pasture growth in the north of the
region is averaging around 100-500kg DM/Ha and some areas in the
Richmond and McKinlay shires reaching 500 - 1000kg DM/Ha or higher.
Central Region: Very good rainfall has been received across many shires
in the Central district although this has not been sufficient to
alleviate the current dry conditions associated with the ongoing hot
weather. Rainfall in general can be described as patchy over the region
with areas in the western districts having fared better than the eastern
half. Areas to the west of Mackay are also below average. Generally
across the region cattle appear to be holding well. Pastures are patchy
although there has been a good response in those areas where good rain
was received and warmer temperatures followed.
South-East Region: With the exception of the near coastal strip of this
region April has again been dry. Recorded rainfall has been well below
average for the month and as a result there has been little overland
flow limiting any recharge to water systems. Cropping enterprises were
affected from the dry finish with both yield and quality well below
average. Some producers are feeling the pressure as the supply and the
quality of available water falls. Stocking rates are being managed
through heavy culling and as a result livestock remain in good
condition.
South Region: April was another relatively dry month with the majority
of the region receiving below average rain. Better falls of 25 - 50 mm
fell in Stanthorpe shire and parts of the Booringa, Bungil, Bendemere
and Murilla shires. The summer pasture growing season is near conclusion
although due to the prevailing dry conditions pasture growth was
limited. The areas that appear to be affected the worst lie in the
western and northern portions of the region. Overall livestock appear to
be in reasonable condition with the exception being in those areas
depleted of pasture. Rainfall over summer was irregular and this was
reflected in crop yields. Late planted sorghum fared the worst. The best
sorghum harvests were on the Border Rivers and isolated areas of the
northern Darling Downs. Dryland cotton yields were reduced due to lack
of in-crop rain and pests. The Granite Belt experienced beneficial rain
and this has been reflected in the prices for fruit and vegetables.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES:
North Region: The region on a whole has received very useful rainfall
with the northern areas experiencing minor to major levels of flooding
in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Larry. In the Normanton and Georgetown
Stock Districts cattle are generally in very good condition. Pastures
have responded and generally there is an excellent body of green grass
across the district. Most water storages are full with all of the rivers
and most of the major creeks across the region now running. There are no
real water problems although producers could experience some pasture
issues due to the current lack of sunshine hours. Pasture response
around the Charters Towers district has been good although failed to
grow to its full potential due to the lack of any recent follow up
rainfall. Surface water supplies are generally adequate and stock are in
good condition for this time of year. Very good rainfall has been
received in the coastal areas of Bowen region but around Collinsville to
the west and south west conditions are less favourable.
Water is now in reasonable supply along the coast although the aquifers
are still lacking and growers at Bowen remain on 50% allocation.
Livestock condition is variable and generally the Townsville district is
looking good with good stands of feed in all areas. Most creeks have run
to some extent and there is some surface water in most areas.
Consequently stock in all areas appear to be in good order.
West Region: Cattle throughout the region are generally in reasonable
condition due to lower stocking numbers. Sheep in the southern half of
the region also remain in good condition. Stock movements have been
limited as agistment availability is hard to source. Drought feeding
continues in the central and south west areas. Large amounts of hay,
cotton seed, loose licks, and protein and mineral blocks are being fed
to assist in maintaining the current condition of livestock. The
northern areas have gained some relief from above average falls and
drought feeding has ceased in the short term. Storm activity has
generally improved pasture quality and quantity around the region. In
the north west dry cattle are in good condition. Breeders are improving
with the average condition being from store to forward store. Cattle in
the Richmond and Hughenden districts are in light to store condition and
improving. Around Mt Isa most stock are generally holding their
condition with the exception being around Boulia. In the central west
cattle are generally in strong condition due to stocking rates being
down to approximately 10 to 30% of normal carrying capacity. Pasture
response in the north west is evident after recent rains and should
continue to respond while there is moisture in the soil. Mitchell Grass
has shot in those areas where storm rain was received over the previous
month. Pasture quality and quantity in the Richmond and Hughenden area
has been limited with predominately soft roly-poly and other weeds
resulting. Pasture response in the northern portion of the shires has
been good where follow up rain was received. A few properties close to
Blackall are showing good signs of Buffel and Mitchell grass growth,
however, follow up rain is required to sustain both grasses. In the
south west stock are starting to lose condition however due to the lack
of stock numbers on most properties the decline does not appear to be
quick. Cattle around Charleville and Quilpie are generally in good
condition considering the current seasonal conditions. Availability of
pasture is rapidly decreasing in the southern and western parts of the
district.
Central Region: Across the region stock appear to be holding well
considering the current conditions although it is anticipated that
cattle will begin to decline with the onset of winter. While there have
not been a lot of cattle sent away to agistment, due to the lack of
availability, there have been quite a number of livestock movements to
sale. Stock condition in the Belyando district is reported as good to
excellent across the entire shire. Around the Broadsound and Nebo
districts quite a few properties have been substantially destocked.
Currently there does not appear to be large amounts of drought feeding
occurring as the majority of producers have initiated destocking instead
of undertaking a drought feeding program. Pasture quality and quantity
is variable across the region depending on where the rain fell. There
has been some limited response in Banana and Calliope districts from
isolated storms with areas to the south and west of the Banana shire
doing better. The coastal areas of the region around Emu Park and the
Livingstone shire are now starting to show good patches of feed although
it is not expected that this would be enough to sustain stock through
winter. Pastures in the Alpha district have improved noticeably after
recent rains and with slightly cooler temperatures this has assisted in
promoting good growth. Pastures in the west of Belyando appear to be in
good condition. The rainfall, combined with the warm temperatures has
contributed significantly to this and the pasture continues to improve.
Pasture response in the western part of the Peak Downs shire from the
highway travelling west has been good. The pasture condition in the
eastern downs area has improved slightly but is still very patchy.
Bauhinia is also experiencing a good pasture response after the recent
rainfall.
South-East Region: Stock condition remains generally good given the
current climatic conditions. This is probably due to producers managing
stocking rates conservatively, taking advantage of a buoyant livestock
market by selling off younger stock and supplementary feeding breeders.
In the harder hit areas of the region stock condition is starting to
decline rapidly especially for breeders with calves at foot. This is
forcing early weaning throughout the region. Stock movements are minimal
in line with the rest of the State as it is difficult to source
agistment. This is allowing producers to take advantage of buoyant
cattle prices and move stock either to sale or direct to the meatworks
through saleyards. Drought feeding has commenced in the drier areas for
breeding stock. Widespread supplementary feeding has been occurring for
some time now as feed dries off and loses its nutritional value. Fodder
prices continue to rise as demand outways supply. Coastal areas have
both quality and quantity of feed due to good rainfall, however inland
pastures have deteriorated significantly. These pastures are in
desperate need of rainfall and resemble condition normally expected late
in winter.
South Region: Livestock are generally in fair condition except for the
more western areas. Some producers have expressed concern that there may
be insufficient dry feed to carry stock over the winter months. As
agistment becomes increasingly difficult to find many producers are
looking to destock further while cattle prices are high. As the summer
pasture season is nearing conclusion producers will need to gauge
pasture availability to ensure stock can be carried over until summer.
Generally animals are holding in condition as a result of continued
destocking practices, although in some areas of the Balonne shire
drought feeding is taking place. Dairy farmers are generally feeding
more and earlier. Pasture growth has declined from late December with
the worst affected areas being the western and northern extremities of
the region. Pasture response has been directly related to the variable
storm activity.
CROPPING AND HORTICULTURE:
North Region: Legume crops continue to grow well while peanut crops are
being affected by wet conditions with growers unable to dig or spray.
Maize crops have suffered extensive damage from the recent cyclonic
activity with the wet conditions only compounding the problem. Heavy
yield losses are expected at harvesting. In the Wet Tropics rainfall has
been beneficial for recovering banana crops. Potato crops on the
Tablelands are growing well although there was some loss due to wet
weather. In the Bowen district harvesting of melons is occurring with
yields and prices reasonable. Tomato picking is expected to commence
soon. In the Innisfail, Tully and Mossman - Mulgrave districts continued
rainfall has caused extensive water-logging of crops. Fine weather is
now needed to ensure a reasonable harvest.
Central Region: Crops in the southern part of the Banana shire were
generally close to average yields. From Banana to Baralaba yields have
been below average while in the north of the shire crops have generally
been non existent with many areas failing to plant. Where mungbeans were
planted the excess heat led to the dropping of flowers and decreased
yield. Minimal cropping has occurred in Calliope although some forage
species have been planted. Those properties that received the isolated
falls have gained some benefit. Around Belyando minimal grain sorghum
has been planted due to the low moisture profiles. Those who did plant
were fortunate to pick up the late rains and harvesting should return a
reasonable yield. A good amount of forage sorghum has been planted and
again has benefited from the late rain. It is expected that a number of
farms will plant wheat although growers will require follow up rain for
any reasonable returns. Across the region in general producers who had
sorghum planted are currently harvesting. While only a small area was
planted, the better crops are going around 2t/ha. From the rain in early
April, reports indicate that south of Capella received 30-50mm, north of
Capella 50-70mm rain. To the east of Capella there have been a number of
failed crops. The cropping region of the shire which is best described
as east of the Peak Downs Highway has been the area that has received
minimal rainfall and has resulted in little to no crops planted over a
number of subsequent years. Some sorghum crops in the Bauhinia shire
returned average yields. Other parts of the shire failed to plant due to
lack of moisture. There are reports of some oats crops being planted
after the recent falls.
South-East Region: Summer crops have been poor in respect to both yields
and quality. As a result prices and returns per hectare have been very
low and economic losses have occurred. With little to no useful rainfall
across the region winter crop prospects are also poor with little to no
soil moisture. There would need to be widespread heavy rainfall to
enable a reasonable recharge to allow producers to plant. Peanut crops
have experienced low yields and low returns in price. Many of the
peanut, sorghum and maize crops have not been harvested and will most
likely be chopped for silage or baled as feed. Irrigation water is
limited with major storages dropping to extremely low levels and
allocations have been cancelled. Ground water supplies are also
declining and many producers have been forced to cut back on usage to
protect the long term viability of bores. This has meant either reducing
areas planted or maintaining survival of crops rather than watering for
growth. Rainfall in the south east coastal region during April was very
low in all areas. An early start to harvesting of the Hass avocado
variety began during April and a good crop is expected for 2006 in the
region. Pineapple growers are busy at this time of the year with
harvesting and planting underway. The macadamia season is well underway
with the dry weather during April having helped harvesting. Strawberry
planting season was generally completed by the end of April. Custard
apple harvesting has commenced and is well underway with good prices of
$4 to 5 per kg reported. Persimmon crops have generally being very good
although soft fruit was a problem for some growers.
South Region: The hot dry conditions over recent months along with
insufficient rainfall in February and March have generally hampered
yield prospects. Late planted sorghum crops have been affected the most.
Rainfall over summer has been irregular and this was reflected in crop
production. The best sorghum prospects are now generally on the Border
Rivers and isolated areas of Northern and Eastern Downs. The dry
conditions have limited dryland cotton production and the extreme heat
affected quality. While the sorghum harvest is now complete on the
Eastern Darling Downs large areas have failed in the Northern and
Central Downs as a result of continued hot and dry conditions. These
crops were either baled or fed off. Seasonal conditions have also
affected large areas of dryland mungbeans. Irrigated maize and soybean
crops have generally performed well. Around the Border Rivers district
cotton plantings were limited due to restrictions placed on irrigation
water causing a downturn in production. There has been some attempt to
deep plant wheat however there was insufficient moisture to plant on a
large scale. Similar patterns appear consistent around the
Maranoa/Balonne districts with the hot and dry conditions dramatically
reducing yield prospects. On the Granite Belt the apple season is nearly
complete and those growers who were not affected by hailstorms have
generally managed to achieve average yields with reasonable prices. The
vegetable season is almost finished for lettuce, tomatoes and capsicums.
Yields were below average due to the wet summer weather. Given this,
tomatoes and capsicums have achieved very good prices. Water storages
across the district are currently holding however there are some areas
that have missed out such as Glen Aplin and Severnlea. These areas will
require winter rain to maintain stonefruit and vegetable production for
next season.
RAINFALL (figure in brackets indicates average)
North Region: Babinda received 949mm (571) Cairns A/P 743mm (n/a),
Malanda n/a (174), Ingham 467mm (219), Innisfail 468mm (n/a), Townsville
205mm (61), Tully n/a (n/a), Bowen 198mm (n/a), Charters Towers 79mm
(n/a), Georgetown 127mm (35) and Normanton A/P n/a (n/a) and Proserpine
A/P 165mm (n/a).
West Region: Birdsville A/P n/a (12), Boulia 15mm (14), Windorah 1mm
(22), Cloncurry n/a (n/a), Mt Isa 168mm (16), Longreach 88mm (41),
Muttaburra 194mm (37), Winton 112mm (33) and Charleville 26mm (34).
Central Region: Alpha recorded 69mm (27), Clermont 91mm (43), Springsure
220mm (46), Mackay 186mm (154), Yaamba 53mm (53), Biloela A/P n/a (n/a),
Mt Larcom 40mm (56), Gladstone 47mm (54), Theodore 50mm (49), and
Yeppoon 94mm (n/a).
South-East Region: Eidsvold recorded 14mm (50), Gayndah 8mm (47),
Mundubbera 14mm (42), Esk 33mm (73), Kilkivan 7mm (66), Kingaroy 3mm
(n/a), Nanango 5mm (57), Proston 5mm (52), and Beaudesert 22mm (82). On
the coastal fringe Bundaberg received 50mm (70), Maryborough 23mm (87),
Nambour 22mm (153) and Tewantin n/a (n/a).
South Region: Clifton 6mm (52), Dalby 35mm (n/a), Goondiwindi 10mm
(n/a), Inglewood n/a (48), Oakey 21mm (47), Pittsworth 26mm (47),
Stanthorpe 48mm (53), Toowoomba AP 22mm (n/a), Warwick 26mm (n/a), Roma
47mm (n/a), Miles 18mm (n/a), St George A/P 11mm (n/a) and Taroom 18mm
(41).
WATER STORAGE/SUPPLIES
North Region: Above average rainfall throughout the region has seen good
flows in all rivers and creeks with minor to major levels of flooding
throughout. The Tinaroo and Burdekin dam storages are both at 100%
capacity.
West Region: No real problem, as the majority of the water in the region
is artesian. There are small amounts of surface water available in those
areas that received showers during April.
Central Region: Many centres recorded rainfall totals greater than their
April averages, with the exception of Taroom and Gladstone. Water
harvesting opportunities were made available for the Lower Dawson, the
Mackenzie River, downstream of the Comet River junction and the Fitzroy.
South East Region: Water availability is declining further as dam levels
and aquifers continue to fall due to the lack of rainfall. Stock water
availability varies from area to area depending on localised storm
activity. Evaporation continues to be a problem.
South Region: While there has been no major streamflows for the month
water supplies are generally holding at this stage. Storages capacities
have fallen from the previous month and this may become an issue if rain
is not received soon. There have been reports from the northern parts of
Rosalie shire that water is limited.
Information provided by:
REGIONAL DELIVERY
Enquiries to: Ros Moloney
Primary Industries Building, 80 Ann Street, GPO Box 46, Brisbane Q 4001
Telephone: (07) 3239 3181
Facsimile: (07) 3239 3454
National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS)
 |
The National Agricultural Monitoring System (NAMS) provides current and historical climate, production, pasture and commodity information for agricultural industries at the national, state and regional scales, in user-friendly graphs and maps. NAMS is primarily designed to streamline Exceptional Circumstances drought assistance applications and assessments. NAMS can be accessed at www.nams.gov.au. This web-based tool is funded by the Australian, State and Territory governments and contains modelled analyses provided by Queensland Departments of Natural Resources & Water and Primary Industries & Fisheries. |
| 
